Why go for 2pts

You people are stupid.  Going for 1 there only guarantees OT. If you get 2 TDs. Going for 2 on the 1st TD allows you a chance to win in regulation.  Let me know if you need bookie services 

The voice of reason in a sea full of idiots.  A simpleton will think its rigged.  

@worm23

 I agree with the reasoning for going for it. On the other hand, it's just dumb for TB not to kick the FG before that.

@tito40

This is not totally correct. You do not 'have more than a 50% chance to convert a 2 pt conversion from such a short distance'.

For example, last year about 46% success and 2024 about 40% success rate, if I remember correctly.

The XP success rate was 95.8% and 95.9% success rate.

So, the expected points is straight forward to figure out:  .8 points for a 2PT try versus .958 for XP and .92 versus .959.

So, the break-even success rate for a 2pt is ~48% to match the expected points for an XP.

So, on expected points alone, the extra point was worth roughly 0.04–0.16 more points

But this is the key thing that the analytics looks like in this spot:

But for maximizing Dallas's chance to win, going for two was defensible and may have been the better strategy.

If Dallas converted: they would trail by six. A later touchdown plus an extra point could put them ahead.

If Dallas failed: they would trail by eight. A later touchdown and successful two-point conversion could still tie the game.

If Dallas kicked: they would trail by seven, meaning a later touchdown and extra point would likely send the game to overtime.

The key distinction is that expected points and probability of winning are not the same thing. Going for two trades a lower-probability outcome now for a chance to win in regulation later, rather than potentially settling for overtime.

In other words go for 2 and CONVERT about 20% chance of WINNING; FAIL then a 8% chance of WINNING for an average of about 13.4% to WIN.

KICK the XP and have about a 14% chance of WINNING.

I had no bet on the game.  I am NOT a big fan of analytics in NFL as much as MLB or maybe NHL.  I have explained the reason(s) why in depth on here several times.

Basically it comes to the far fewer situations in a game, or even in a whole season, for the +EV to work out in your favor over the LONG run.  Whereas, in MLB there are many more situations opportunities for it to work out in your favor. 

These decisions make you look nice of they work out but they can easily get you fired.  Because EVEN IF you are making the correct +EV decisions maybe you do not have the right personnel to make it work for you or you are just on the wrong side of the variance due to the fewer chances.

I will add that if DAL was thinking (along with analytics) that they had some momentum and if they had made the 2 pt conversion that Tampa with a backup QB would crack -- then another question now has to be asked.

Was their mindset to attempt to win the game WITHOUT going to OT?  In other words did they ever consider kicking the XP and THEN going for 2 at the END to WIN the game in regulation?

Now I say all of this without knowing if anyone on the staff spoke to the media about the exact thinking behind it.

I will also say that I cannot really see why TB did NOT just kick the FG!

I get that your defense has played well thus far.

If you do not make it -- then you force them to go 99 yards for a TD -- they cannot settle for FGs.

Then they have to get the ball back and do it again.

But with all the timeouts left and the 2-minute warning left AND you have been fortunate to get a 2-score lead with a backup QB -- WHY NOT get a 3-score lead at that point?!?!

I get IF you score another TD it crumbles DAL.

BUT if you do NOT get it you really, really rejuvenate DAL .

I think it was an extremely poor decision.

I can understand going for 2 for DAL knowing they had to go for 2 again if they did not make it.  Because you essentially should get one out of two with that offense.

But I do NOT agree with it.  Got to OT at home with your offense!  

Because if you have scored 2 very quick TDs to tie it up -- THEN you obviously have the momentum going into OT and the crowd is back in it, etc.