Maye's strength is running and throwing deep. Is he able & willing to do both with (maybe) a bad shoulder?
If NE turns to a short passing game to protect Maye (15 sacks and 6 fumbles in 3 playoff games), Seattle will sit on routes and grind out a physical, low scoring game.
Vrabel is very good, but McDonald doesn't seem to beat himself with unnecessary 4th down gambles, so I would call the coaching even.
As far as the halftime show is concerned, I couldn't give two fucks. Live and let live, or dig up Frank Sinatra and have him perform if that's your thing.
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Maye's strength is running and throwing deep. Is he able & willing to do both with (maybe) a bad shoulder?
If NE turns to a short passing game to protect Maye (15 sacks and 6 fumbles in 3 playoff games), Seattle will sit on routes and grind out a physical, low scoring game.
Vrabel is very good, but McDonald doesn't seem to beat himself with unnecessary 4th down gambles, so I would call the coaching even.
As far as the halftime show is concerned, I couldn't give two fucks. Live and let live, or dig up Frank Sinatra and have him perform if that's your thing.
Both have negative EPA/Play against the pass and the run.
Both have good positive PS/Play against the run.
And some various other defensive stats.
They do not allow a lot of busted plays passing or rushing or too many explosive ones either.
Plus the Drake Maye ‘injury’ I think has to be considered.
I think these all set up for both teams to start slow by being careful with their QBs and trying to build their ‘confidence’ as the game progresses.
I do not think either coach will want their QB to get rattled early or fall too far behind early.
I also think both coaches will not be as apt to go for it on some questionable 4th down-type plays as other coaches would be with more ‘experienced’ or more ‘big-game’ QBs and will punt and play a more field-position type of game.
I took Seattle -4.5 early.But I feel if Maye gets a great update this week some pro money will come in on New England.Some of the guys I know mostly took a position on Seattle because of the Maye ‘news’.So, I could see some of that changing.
So, I think it could get to -4 this week, and I like that a bit better.
But I took a larger portion on the U46 early.
But it still has to play out that way.
So, you may get a wide open game for an easy blowout and it might still stay under.
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@brn2loslive2win
Top two scoring defenses.
Two of the top opponent yards per point.
Two of the top four opponents points per play.
Both have negative EPA/Play against the pass and the run.
Both have good positive PS/Play against the run.
And some various other defensive stats.
They do not allow a lot of busted plays passing or rushing or too many explosive ones either.
Plus the Drake Maye ‘injury’ I think has to be considered.
I think these all set up for both teams to start slow by being careful with their QBs and trying to build their ‘confidence’ as the game progresses.
I do not think either coach will want their QB to get rattled early or fall too far behind early.
I also think both coaches will not be as apt to go for it on some questionable 4th down-type plays as other coaches would be with more ‘experienced’ or more ‘big-game’ QBs and will punt and play a more field-position type of game.
I took Seattle -4.5 early.But I feel if Maye gets a great update this week some pro money will come in on New England.Some of the guys I know mostly took a position on Seattle because of the Maye ‘news’.So, I could see some of that changing.
So, I think it could get to -4 this week, and I like that a bit better.
But I took a larger portion on the U46 early.
But it still has to play out that way.
So, you may get a wide open game for an easy blowout and it might still stay under.
Every other team on their schedule has scored on average 23.67 ppg. Now I didn’t dig as deep as to see how many of those were offensive points and that certainly does matter.
It’s really hard to use the patriots season long stats and metrics to handicap this Super Bowl. I know you’re on Seattle so I’m not directing this entirely at you. But is it possible that we could potentially throw all of those numbers out the window? Realistically, what they did to that schedule is not that impressive. How can we measure the quality of the patriots defense against the worst offenses in the NFL?
The only thing I truly believe about this patriots team is that the offense is good. Not great, just good. And almost entirely because Drake Maye has made them that good. They have some talent and some of it very underrated, but it’s the classic scenario of zero elite offensive players having their potential raised by having a good quarterback. That said, I think they can score on Seattle. I think they can get to at least 20. And I think that if Seattle is somewhat aggressive (which you’re right, they probably won’t be in the first half or maybe at all) that Seattle has potential to get to 30 points. I just think the number is too low at 45. I lean over but won’t have a play on the total. The fact that both coaches will most likely kick fgs when they should just helps that case a little more.
I may be totally wrong but I’m just not convinced that this patriots defense is really that good. I guess we’ll find out soon!
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@Raiders22
With all due respect to your research efforts and the excellent information you provide to us here on covers…
The only teams that the Patriots have held under 20 points this season, not counting the playoffs for what I believe are very obvious reasons-
Every other team on their schedule has scored on average 23.67 ppg. Now I didn’t dig as deep as to see how many of those were offensive points and that certainly does matter.
It’s really hard to use the patriots season long stats and metrics to handicap this Super Bowl. I know you’re on Seattle so I’m not directing this entirely at you. But is it possible that we could potentially throw all of those numbers out the window? Realistically, what they did to that schedule is not that impressive. How can we measure the quality of the patriots defense against the worst offenses in the NFL?
The only thing I truly believe about this patriots team is that the offense is good. Not great, just good. And almost entirely because Drake Maye has made them that good. They have some talent and some of it very underrated, but it’s the classic scenario of zero elite offensive players having their potential raised by having a good quarterback. That said, I think they can score on Seattle. I think they can get to at least 20. And I think that if Seattle is somewhat aggressive (which you’re right, they probably won’t be in the first half or maybe at all) that Seattle has potential to get to 30 points. I just think the number is too low at 45. I lean over but won’t have a play on the total. The fact that both coaches will most likely kick fgs when they should just helps that case a little more.
I may be totally wrong but I’m just not convinced that this patriots defense is really that good. I guess we’ll find out soon!
Mike McDonald has made it clear that he has full faith in Darnold. Whether he truly does or not, nobody knows. But it doesn’t seem like he’s trying to necessarily protect his qb from ruining the game. I’d like to see let’s call it a moderately aggressive offense in the Super Bowl. Throwing on first down, play action, and high percentage intermediate throws throughout the game. As opposed to trying to run the ball and play old school football for 4 quarters. He can potentially have success with that type of game and a great defense, but imo playing football that way in this era is just asking to get beat in the 4th quarter. I’m hoping McDonald understands that and makes an effort to score and establish a commanding lead. In which case the patriots will have to play more aggressively on offense and yada yada yada you see where I’m going.
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@Raiders22
Just to add to my ranting a little more
Mike McDonald has made it clear that he has full faith in Darnold. Whether he truly does or not, nobody knows. But it doesn’t seem like he’s trying to necessarily protect his qb from ruining the game. I’d like to see let’s call it a moderately aggressive offense in the Super Bowl. Throwing on first down, play action, and high percentage intermediate throws throughout the game. As opposed to trying to run the ball and play old school football for 4 quarters. He can potentially have success with that type of game and a great defense, but imo playing football that way in this era is just asking to get beat in the 4th quarter. I’m hoping McDonald understands that and makes an effort to score and establish a commanding lead. In which case the patriots will have to play more aggressively on offense and yada yada yada you see where I’m going.
New England’s offense is by far the weakest unit of the four units on the field. Seattle D-line will overwhelm a weak OL from the patriots, and nobody on the patriots will be open against the Seattle secondary. New England won’t even sniff 20 points in the contest and that certainly won’t be enough to win.
Unless Darnold has a catastrophically bad game with 3 INT, there is no path for New England to win. New England’s defense is good enough to produce a cover and muck up the game. But Seattle will be comfortably ahead all game and not in any danger of actually losing.
Final score 24-13 Seachickens win.
You really should do a little research before putting your first post on this thread and on the NFL forum
Fyi the patriots had the number three overall rated offense in all of football behind the Rams and Cowboys while the Seahawks were ranked 7th in overall offense
I have and will continue to say this and it's this game will be close....very close, and the Patriots with +4.5 points is an extremely generous gift.
Besides the above mentioned facts the patriots have committed 16 turnovers this season while the Seahawks have committed 27
The Patriots do a much better job in protecting the football as Seattle does.
Don't sleep on the patriots defense either......they will no doubt show up and Darnold may be seeing a lot more than ghosts this up and coming Sunday afternoon.
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
1
@Vcdplaya3014
The handicap on this game is fairly simple.
New England’s offense is by far the weakest unit of the four units on the field. Seattle D-line will overwhelm a weak OL from the patriots, and nobody on the patriots will be open against the Seattle secondary. New England won’t even sniff 20 points in the contest and that certainly won’t be enough to win.
Unless Darnold has a catastrophically bad game with 3 INT, there is no path for New England to win. New England’s defense is good enough to produce a cover and muck up the game. But Seattle will be comfortably ahead all game and not in any danger of actually losing.
Final score 24-13 Seachickens win.
You really should do a little research before putting your first post on this thread and on the NFL forum
Fyi the patriots had the number three overall rated offense in all of football behind the Rams and Cowboys while the Seahawks were ranked 7th in overall offense
I have and will continue to say this and it's this game will be close....very close, and the Patriots with +4.5 points is an extremely generous gift.
Besides the above mentioned facts the patriots have committed 16 turnovers this season while the Seahawks have committed 27
The Patriots do a much better job in protecting the football as Seattle does.
Don't sleep on the patriots defense either......they will no doubt show up and Darnold may be seeing a lot more than ghosts this up and coming Sunday afternoon.
Fyi the patriots had the number three overall rated offense in all of football behind the Rams and Cowboys while the Seahawks were ranked 7th in overall offense
According to what metrics?
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@justliketoplay
Fyi the patriots had the number three overall rated offense in all of football behind the Rams and Cowboys while the Seahawks were ranked 7th in overall offense
Inside the link below is the box score from last year's game between Seattle and New England played on 15 September 2024. My 1st take is NE was able to run the ball effectively.
Inside the link below is the box score from last year's game between Seattle and New England played on 15 September 2024. My 1st take is NE was able to run the ball effectively.
I could and have found certain parameters in the past Super Bowl favorites tgat the favorites are winless at ..0-10 straight up no points
no need to get that specific. AT 3-15 ATS the SB favorite that was a favorite in their previous 2 playoff games. Thats the trend
In the last 10 years or so we have seen more 1 seed vs 1 seed matchup than ever before.
To me in not excited about the Patriots end up here once again but I will say the Patriots as a dog could be a reversal of success after losing these SBs as big chalk.
i know im not contributing and info to game play but the data is against Seattle and and chalk in the scenario.
Doesnt make it a sure thing but clearly some power of the dog being on display.
Patriots to cover and Seattle to win.
Spottie2935 on socials
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I could and have found certain parameters in the past Super Bowl favorites tgat the favorites are winless at ..0-10 straight up no points
no need to get that specific. AT 3-15 ATS the SB favorite that was a favorite in their previous 2 playoff games. Thats the trend
In the last 10 years or so we have seen more 1 seed vs 1 seed matchup than ever before.
To me in not excited about the Patriots end up here once again but I will say the Patriots as a dog could be a reversal of success after losing these SBs as big chalk.
i know im not contributing and info to game play but the data is against Seattle and and chalk in the scenario.
Doesnt make it a sure thing but clearly some power of the dog being on display.
Gotcha. Yeah. Raw numbers to me do not show the indepth and cleaned up analytic numbers.
But you are correct in that both of these teams are better than some think.
But some of the more critical stats will not show them as very efficient. For example, Passing PE/Play NE is 11th, whereas SEA is 23rd. Rushing PE/Play SEA is 7th and NE is 21st.
So, overall if the best aspect of each offense is not working are they going to be able to make that other part overcome that or use it to set their best part up effectively.
That is part of the reason I think it could be a lower scoring game. If each defense can do a good job of shutting down the other’s best unit on offense I am not so sure these offenses can rely on their weaker units.
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@justliketoplay
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
@Raiders22 https://share.google/OjI5i1rrXZavnuWQK
Gotcha. Yeah. Raw numbers to me do not show the indepth and cleaned up analytic numbers.
But you are correct in that both of these teams are better than some think.
But some of the more critical stats will not show them as very efficient. For example, Passing PE/Play NE is 11th, whereas SEA is 23rd. Rushing PE/Play SEA is 7th and NE is 21st.
So, overall if the best aspect of each offense is not working are they going to be able to make that other part overcome that or use it to set their best part up effectively.
That is part of the reason I think it could be a lower scoring game. If each defense can do a good job of shutting down the other’s best unit on offense I am not so sure these offenses can rely on their weaker units.
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay: @Raiders22 https://share.google/OjI5i1rrXZavnuWQK Smh at you pushing N.E. so hard. Amurica doesn't care, neither does Football handicappers about needing patriotism right now. You're like a Jehovah's witness. Your prayers will Not be answered. The door will SLAM in your Face and you will receive Zero donations or commitments. Seattle rolls.
Kind of sounds like the kettle calling the pot black here right?
Everyone has an opinion on one side or the other. Some will be right, some will be wrong.
None of us know what will happen.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by MortalJax506:
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay: @Raiders22 https://share.google/OjI5i1rrXZavnuWQK Smh at you pushing N.E. so hard. Amurica doesn't care, neither does Football handicappers about needing patriotism right now. You're like a Jehovah's witness. Your prayers will Not be answered. The door will SLAM in your Face and you will receive Zero donations or commitments. Seattle rolls.
Kind of sounds like the kettle calling the pot black here right?
Everyone has an opinion on one side or the other. Some will be right, some will be wrong.
Well said sac for a site that is meant to help others it amazes me how some (especially newbies) can come to a thread and bash or criticize other posters who appear to just throw out their take on a game without any of us really knowing in reality what or how the end results of ANY particular game is going to play out.
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
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@undermysac
Well said sac for a site that is meant to help others it amazes me how some (especially newbies) can come to a thread and bash or criticize other posters who appear to just throw out their take on a game without any of us really knowing in reality what or how the end results of ANY particular game is going to play out.
@Raiders22 I like your thoughts on the under as that may just be added to my plays come Superbowl Sunday. Great post and insight as well thanks R22
I just see it that way. Most of the guys I know and respect also see it that way.
BUT I am NOT trying to talk you out of it if you like their offenses!
Most of the time Super Bowl will go over. This is the last game of the season and no reason to hold back. If one team gets a lead they will try to pile it on. The other team then has to go all out to catch up. So, it could very easily sail over.
I just see it as slower to start, etc.
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@justliketoplay
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
@Raiders22 I like your thoughts on the under as that may just be added to my plays come Superbowl Sunday. Great post and insight as well thanks R22
I just see it that way. Most of the guys I know and respect also see it that way.
BUT I am NOT trying to talk you out of it if you like their offenses!
Most of the time Super Bowl will go over. This is the last game of the season and no reason to hold back. If one team gets a lead they will try to pile it on. The other team then has to go all out to catch up. So, it could very easily sail over.
@justliketoplay Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay: @Raiders22 I like your thoughts on the under as that may just be added to my plays come Superbowl Sunday. Great post and insight as well thanks R22 I just see it that way. Most of the guys I know and respect also see it that way. BUT I am NOT trying to talk you out of it if you like their offenses! Most of the time Super Bowl will go over. This is the last game of the season and no reason to hold back. If one team gets a lead they will try to pile it on. The other team then has to go all out to catch up. So, it could very easily sail over. I just see it as slower to start, etc.
I've always tried to associate a thought with this tendency.
Longer commercials. A really long halftime. Refs taking more time on reviews...
A lot of regular moments are extended in super bowls. Perhaps giving more time to coordinators, and getting a better play in.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@justliketoplay Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay: @Raiders22 I like your thoughts on the under as that may just be added to my plays come Superbowl Sunday. Great post and insight as well thanks R22 I just see it that way. Most of the guys I know and respect also see it that way. BUT I am NOT trying to talk you out of it if you like their offenses! Most of the time Super Bowl will go over. This is the last game of the season and no reason to hold back. If one team gets a lead they will try to pile it on. The other team then has to go all out to catch up. So, it could very easily sail over. I just see it as slower to start, etc.
I've always tried to associate a thought with this tendency.
Longer commercials. A really long halftime. Refs taking more time on reviews...
A lot of regular moments are extended in super bowls. Perhaps giving more time to coordinators, and getting a better play in.
No worries it's gambling and the theory is defenses have won many of Superbowls and if my play is on The Patriots they better play the defense they have shown in these past playoff games which should point to a lower score and possible under and not to get into a shootout with Darnold as that may not play well for the pats in the end or for one having a play on the pats and or under.
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
0
@Raiders22
No worries it's gambling and the theory is defenses have won many of Superbowls and if my play is on The Patriots they better play the defense they have shown in these past playoff games which should point to a lower score and possible under and not to get into a shootout with Darnold as that may not play well for the pats in the end or for one having a play on the pats and or under.
The handicap on this game is fairly simple. New England’s offense is by far the weakest unit of the four units on the field. Seattle D-line will overwhelm a weak OL from the patriots, and nobody on the patriots will be open against the Seattle secondary. New England won’t even sniff 20 points in the contest and that certainly won’t be enough to win. Unless Darnold has a catastrophically bad game with 3 INT, there is no path for New England to win. New England’s defense is good enough to produce a cover and muck up the game. But Seattle will be comfortably ahead all game and not in any danger of actually losing. Final score 24-13 Seachickens win.
Darnold will face pressure as well. NE D line can get after it and Seattle O line isn’t exactly stout. This has 20-17 final written all over it.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Vcdplaya3014:
The handicap on this game is fairly simple. New England’s offense is by far the weakest unit of the four units on the field. Seattle D-line will overwhelm a weak OL from the patriots, and nobody on the patriots will be open against the Seattle secondary. New England won’t even sniff 20 points in the contest and that certainly won’t be enough to win. Unless Darnold has a catastrophically bad game with 3 INT, there is no path for New England to win. New England’s defense is good enough to produce a cover and muck up the game. But Seattle will be comfortably ahead all game and not in any danger of actually losing. Final score 24-13 Seachickens win.
Darnold will face pressure as well. NE D line can get after it and Seattle O line isn’t exactly stout. This has 20-17 final written all over it.
Posted by UglyKidJoe Follow the 1Q.line movement 20 minutes before kickoff, if there is any. Sometimes there is not. I always look for that.... what does that tell you.. any examples ? am currently larger than normal risk sea ml (-207) ... what should i be looking for in the 1st qt movement? good luck bud ... i assume you are on the +4-
goldfinger 1964
0
Posted by UglyKidJoe Follow the 1Q.line movement 20 minutes before kickoff, if there is any. Sometimes there is not. I always look for that.... what does that tell you.. any examples ? am currently larger than normal risk sea ml (-207) ... what should i be looking for in the 1st qt movement? good luck bud ... i assume you are on the +4-
Posted by Digitalkarma Shawn Smith calls defensive interference pass interference at the 3rd highest rate and Patriots get called DPI the 5th most Yet Shawn Smith is a Michigan man
goldfinger 1964
0
Posted by Digitalkarma Shawn Smith calls defensive interference pass interference at the 3rd highest rate and Patriots get called DPI the 5th most Yet Shawn Smith is a Michigan man
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