Where's the handicap?

Anyone?

Only 1 week away from the SB.

Interest seems fairly low on this game

@undermysac

 Who are you going to take?

was going to post this. I agree, it’s completely dead in here

Good, because people are aware that some LGBTQ illegal fruitcake who can't even speak English wearing a dress will be representing the SB halftime show pushing Mentally ill propaganda.  The NFL deserves to lose revenue. 

Don't think I'm betting it. Maybe some props or a total. I don't know. I'm not running to any window, that's for sure.

Weird shit for sure. 

I actually have a buddy who's getting a card game together on SB Sunday, during the game. He has 4 guys committed, looking for another. I was a little surprised. 

There's more people out there that have stopped watching sports than we think.

@undermysac

 Keeping this one simple as I always do for the SB. Many times we get these games in the SB and we try to overthink in every possible way. I preach this all year long and I’ll do it again here. 

Offensive lines win football games. Pass rush ruins a team’s offense in the most critical situations. The Patriots won’t be able to pass block well enough and the heat will be on Maye all game. That’s it. 

There’s obviously scenarios where it’s not so simple and anything can turn the game. If Darnold folds and throws 3 picks or the refs make/miss some bad calls then anything can happen, we all know the risk of gambling. Also won’t be surprised by a late score/backdoor cover by NE where Seattle wins by a small margin. I’m just betting on what seems to be the obvious situation…

Seattle will move the ball offensively and the defense will be dominant. As a gambler I’m not interested in an exciting game. Just for the better defense to beat the weaker offensive line. There’s reason to believe that this game is a rout. If Drake Maye runs around and has a heroic performance against a top tier defense then so be it I’ll take the loss and move on. Don’t care about the spread, sharp money/public money, underdog angle…

Drake has a turnover or two, Seattle moves the ball through the air without much trouble, Myers makes a few kicks, and Seattle comes out on top 28-17, 33-21 something along those lines. I laid 4 with Seattle early on and I don’t think the line drops below that. Good luck with any bets you make. 

@undermysac

 Feel its reflective of a few dynamics.

@brn2loslive2win

 Well put.

One SB that I'll never forget is 2007. The undefeated Patriots lost to the Giants. Simply put, the Giants front 4 reeked havoc on Tom Brady. Something no team did to him all year.

The NFL is a joke people are losing interest in a fixed league now they got Bad Bunny a guy who can’t even speak English playing the Halftime Show this is a disgrace.

Pretty surprising that they predict the handle will be a lot more than last year especially when we are approaching an economic downturn if we aren't in one already. People still got money to bet? 

@brn2loslive2win

 "Offensive lines win football games". I've been looking for this statement.

@undermysac

 The NFC East was Brady's kryptonite. The Patriots were just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS against the strongest, most physical division since the merger. No division has played in or won more Super Bowls since 1970, and it's not close.

Even the legends of the game have proven that without the proper protection, the pass rush is the great equalizer. In the last 25 years I’ve seen the great Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Pat Mahomes be defeated because of an offensive line that couldn’t protect against a ferocious pass rush. 

On the contrary to my first post, the patriots also have a path to win the game and a blueprint on how to do it. Blitz the ever loving shit out of Darnold. If Vrabel is smart enough to know that he can make life a living hell for Seattle. Darnold will take sacks and turn it over under pressure. If I’m Vrabel I believe that this is the key to success. Sell out on qb pressure and pray that it works. If they can get to Darnold they will win the game. 

Not betting on the Superbowl is against my nature, it will never happen. Vegas gave themselves +4.5, that's what I'll be looking at this week.

Follow the 1Q.line movement 20 minutes before kickoff, if there is any. Sometimes there is not. I always look for that. 

I think this is a good point about the Offensive line.  

But it is sort of dependent on how the game plays out.

Against Philadelphia, Brady had 500 yards passing and was sacked only once.

They got the lead in the 4th quarter and their defense just could not stop Philadelphia.

Then the last time against New York they had the lead until the last minute because their defense again could not make crucial stops on an almost 90-yard drive.  Brady was sacked 2 times and Manning 3 times.  Both had over 250 yards passing.  But it was a defensive game from both sides.  But New England’s defense gave up the late crucial long drive at the end.

In the first game against New York, New England again had the lead late because of an 80 yard drive by Brady.  Then their defense let New York go on another over 80 yard drive and could not make crucial stops on defense.

So, essentially, in both games against New York, Brady had them with the lead late.  Basically, he told their defense to make one stop on this drive and New York would not see the ball again.  And their defense failed them at crucial times in both of those games.  Not to take anything from Manning and New York.  They won the games with great drives at the end — helmet catches of not.

The first time they played Philadelphia they had a 10 point lead late and McNabb had a nice 80 yard drive to get them within 3 points.  But that time Brady had a chance to make sure they never saw the ball again.  But not because the defense made a crucial stop — but because he already had them out to a 2-score lead.

So, I am not sure when you walk off the field late in two defensive games expecting your defense to make the stops they had done all day, and they fail to do it on long drives, that it is a ‘kryptonite’.

Then when you are in a high-scoring game and have the lead well into the 4th quarter and your defense lets the team go down and score, not once but twice late in the 4th quarter and New England still had a chance at the end to try to tie it.  I am not sure that is ‘kryptonite’ either.  

In the end it matters in very close games between two good teams that all facets be played well. 

Offensive line play matters very much.  But when you walk off the field with the lead and let teams go 80+ yards to win, I think that is more a cause of the defense not stepping up.  Especially in the two games where they had been playing well and neither offense really had been.

@UglyKidJoe

Not betting on the Superbowl is against my nature, it will never happen. Vegas gave themselves +4.5, that's what I'll be looking at this week.

@brn2loslive2win

 I think that is a quite concise analysis.  

I agree with Seattle.  I would not be surprised if Vrabel has a good scheme and the game is very low-scoring and defensive.

In the end, I think Darnold does enough to get the lead early and keep it. 

He has really built up his confidence in the last couple of years.  Having a well-rounded team has really helped also.

But New England and Maye have been impressive.

So, I may actually be a little different from you in one aspect.  I kind of am looking forward to a good game.

@justliketoplay

@MortalJax506

 Thank God, no more listening to jungle boogie at halftime Let's listen to some bunny tunes.

@Raiders22

 I’ve heard basically everywhere from everybody that I respect on the matter leaning towards a lower scoring, defensive game. For me there’s only a few scenarios in an NFL game where I actually expect a lower scoring game. I don’t think any of them apply here. What makes you think low scoring?

Dont get me wrong, a good “entertaining” SB is always fun, but I’m laying 4 with the favorite. In which case I’ll be hoping for a blowout really. In laying 4 in an NFL game you kind of need a two touchdown lead at some point to feel safe. Even that can vanish in the blink of an eye. If it’s a back and forth game I don’t expect Seattle to cover. 

For whatever reason I am not really feeling the SB this year and have minimal interest. I never heard of Bad Bunny until recently and I never watch the halftime show anyway so the motivation just isn't there.

The handicap on this game is fairly simple.

New England’s offense is by far the weakest unit of the four units on the field.  Seattle D-line will overwhelm a weak OL from the patriots, and nobody on the patriots will be open against the Seattle secondary.  New England won’t even sniff 20 points in the contest and that certainly won’t be enough to win.  

Unless Darnold has a catastrophically bad game with 3 INT, there is no path for New England to win.  New England’s defense  is good enough to produce a cover and muck up the game.  But Seattle will be comfortably ahead all game and not in any danger of actually losing.

Final score 24-13 Seachickens win.

Shawn Smith calls defensive interference pass interference at the 3rd highest rate and Patriots get called DPI the 5th most 

Yet Shawn Smith is a Michigan man hnmm