Week X!V

94-62 ATS season-to-date....NO +6 pending.

Packers got a lucky win for us, (though if they hadn't covered by getting that last TD my UNDER on the same game would have covered) and Giants/Commies staying under was pretty fortunate too....luck enters into about 1/3 of the games in the NFL....if you hit 50% or more of those could-go-either-way games and you otherwise know what you're doing you have a chance to have a profitable season.

Packers still should be done with Rogers after this season as they are in the midst of a reset and will likely finish fourth next season in the NFC North.....organizations have a tendency to hold on too long, instead of utilizing the Belichick idea of getting rid of a guy one year too soon, rather than one year too late.

Still super-impressed with Seattle this season, even if they didn't get the money for me today.  Geno is a top 10 quarterback and the rest of that team is so strong fundamentally plus you can always count on them to give max effort.  That home game in two weeks time where they get the 49ers in the King Dome or whatever they call it now will be must-watch TV for me.

Home dogs just are super good this season, though this weekend we saw for the first time they tailed off.  Home dog UNDERs continued continuing on.....I have them at 20-49 o/u this season so far which is pretty incredible.   

I rate the Ravens as being 7 points worse without Action Jackson and it looks like he'll be out for awhile....I'm fading them this week against their arch rivals who have a coach that is one of the underdog coaches in NFL history.

Mentioned that using angles like I do after week 11 has not been that great over the years....have incorporated o/u betting in the last few weeks with success, but picking sides has been a slog for over a month now.  Will lesson the emphasis on angles using the databases....will still use them, but instead of that being 80-90% of the betting methodology, it'll be 50-60%.  

I mentioned also in last week's thread that winning away non-divisional underdogs went 0-3 ATS this past week....Titans, Jets and Dolphins all lost and failed to cover...they traditionally are fades....I lost taking the Dolphins when I knew that going in.....my bad.

Obviously, some away dogs cover that are playing a non-divisional opponent.....51.5% of losing away non-divisional dogs cover, and that number is much higher since 2014 for whatever reason.  Conversely, only 48% of winning away non-divisional dogs have covered over the past 30-odd years, so if you are betting them of course you can win, but you putting yourself in a disadvantage to take them on a regular basis.

On the other hand losing away divisional dogs cover 54% of the time and slightly more than 50% of winning away dogs do. 

Plays:

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

@Indigo999

I’m trying to catch up to you on leaderboard great work this season keep it up!

You're having a great season, props to you...but I'm never sure about your record-keeping. You're claiming a win on the under 40 in a 20-20 Giants-Wash game. Surely that's a push, no?

@garbagetime

 He posted Giants vs Washington under 40.5

The game tie at the end of overtime 20 -20.

So he won his bet.

I understand the closing line at 40.

All the below queries we are ignoring the last game of the seasons' results as sometimes those  teams or their opponents lay down.

a)  Divisional dogs that allowed over 37 points their last game have gone 36-24 ATS in December games.....Jaguars

b)  Home favorites that will be favored their next two games in December have been 191-132 ATS.....will wait for the next week's lines to come out on Wednesday for indicated teams.

c)  Home favorites that will be underdogs their next two games have been 71-113-1 ATS

d)  A week 14 home dog with less than 5 wins playing on MNF 0-5 ATS....VERSUS Cardinals

e)  A December away favorite that missed the playoffs last season off a home win.......52-76-6 ATS....VERSUS Ravens, Vikings

f)  A home dog off a home win in December that scored over 37 points....1-6-1 ATS....VERSUS Lions....eeek!!

g)  An away divisional dog in December that won one divisional game last season.....21-28 ATS, 20-30 o/u.....AGAINST Jaguars

h)  A team that played in at least three playoff games last season playing a December home game off a home win...6-16 ATS.....VERSUS 49ers, Bengals

i)  A home divisional dog in December that allowed greater than 150 yards rushing their previous game....48-33-1 ATS......ON Giants

j)  An away divisional dog from November on out that kicked 5 or more field goals their previous game.....8-0 ATS, 6-2 straight up.....ON Jets

Adding:

4)  Jets +10

_________________________

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

as crazy as it sounds I could see the Steelers winning the rest of their games and sneaking into the playoffs   

People that think in terms of craziness are usually excellent handicappers....the Steelers finally have a rushing attack....I don't like that Watt is injured, but otherwise they're good-to-go.......

@Indigo999

 8-4 ATS for the week with the Saints +6 pending, 92-64 ATS for the season, 59%.  ????????????????

Adding:

5)  Patriots -1

_________________________

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

4)  Jets +10

I went back to the angle "h"...there are further parameters to add to get the best result....I can't get 6-16 ATS that I got before...this is the best I can do....

Parameters:

  1)  A December Sunday favorite

  2)  Played in at least two playoff games last season

  3)  Won their previous game at home

  4)  Before the last game of the season

9-18 ATS....VERSUS Bengals, 49ers.....if their opponent is off an away win this moves to 0-6 ATS, 1-5 straight up...VERSUS Bengals

tpS(playoffs)>1 and HF and month = 12 and n:playoffs = 0 and p:HW and day=Sunday

Well... I was wrong on atl...  and passed on a few totals as my book had them 2-3 points lower.   Appreciate your time and efforts.  

@Indigo999

 Like 2 a lot. Steelers looking better. That game could also be a division slugfest.

Can't wait to see ur totals numbers. I have 4-5 im eyeing. 3 I like most. Interested to see if they pop up in this thread

Thanks, didn't realize the apostrophe meant a half point.

Lions and Steelers....Favorite plays next week......Thanks Indigo....

k)  Coach Andy Reid is 49-23-1 ATS in his pro career on the road in divisional games, including 25-12-1 as an away divisional favorite, 5-2 ATS, 7-0 straight up (+14.57) off an away loss

l)  Mike Tomlin has been 46-31-4 ATS in his career as a dog, including 12-4-4 ATS as a home dog.  This moves to 18-9-2 ATS as a divisional dog.  This also includes being 9-1 as a dog in December/January games.

For you college football bettors, ESPN's Mike Connelly has quantified the odds of the two semifinals game with a formula.....he gives Georgia a 62% chance of beating Ohio State and Michigan a 70% chance of beating TCU.

How does that correlate to a pointspread?  

We can run a database history to see what percentage of the time teams win at a certain spread by doing the following query text....

F and line

College football teams win 70% of their games when the line is -7

Teams win 62% of their games when the line is between -3.5 to -5

So, as bookmakers most commonly do, they have shaded each game towards the favorites....Michigan by pure math/power ratings should be around -7 and Georgia should be -4.5ish.

I've taken Georgia and TCU....we'll see what happens.

We'll see if the Browns can get some competent play out of the quarterback position this week....at a minimum one would expect Watson to make some plays with his legs.  I've mentioned this before, but we'll hammer it home again....away dogs that outrush attempt their opponent cover 83.6% of the time.  Teams that out rush yard their opponent cover 73.6% of the time.......when they do both they cover 85% of the time.....in fact when a divisional dog both outrush attempts and out rush yards their opponent their ATS record has been 571-97-17, 85.5%.

I think there's a good chance the Browns meet those criteria on Sunday.

Adding:

6)  Browns +6

___________________________________________________

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

4)  Jets +10

5)  Patriots -1

This angle I mentioned last week....3 qualifiers this week.

m)  In 2022, an away divisional dog that has lost its last two road games has been 8-0 ATS.....ON Saints, Jets, Jaguars, and on Falcons next week

tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and AD and season=2022 and DIV

Since 2014 teams in this situation off a loss with the line at <=+6 have been 18-4 ATS, 5-0 ATS in December....Jaguars, Saints

tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and p:L and AD and season>2014 and DIV and line<=6 and tA(W)

When the line has been >+6 those teams have been 18-26 ATS.....Jets

n)  A Sunday away divisional dog off a loss who outyarded their previous opponent has been 165-116-6 ATS, 58.7%......in week 14 this has been 20-8 ATS, 6-0 ATS, 5-1 straight up if they outgained their opponent by over 100 yards.....Jets

Indigo, any solid angles for Bucs vs 49ers? Thanks In advance 

@Indigo999

 Hmmm i like it. Browns have owned Bengals of late and Bengals coming off huge win vs kc