Week X!V

Refer to thread #14

The F and S usage is invaluable, learn something from your posts all the time. Could show you some interesting places here in Thailand as payment...lol

Ja, one never knows.......

Here's an NBA angle....NBA betting for me is like going to the dentist....I do indulge in betting it in weaker moments, which happens more frequently than I'd like

TPM=three pointers made

An away favorite in 2022 off a game where they made more three pointers than their previous game opponent did....27-44 ATS

p:TPM>po:TPM and AF and season=2022

Sweet indigo. Thank you 

The same ol' story, the other team does almost everything right for 3.5 quarters, then they get conservative thinking they will milk the clock and then Tom Terrific turns it on after sleep walking the whole game,  and pulls it out for his team in the last minute....sickening!

We get the win with the Saints +6 to go to 95-62 ATS for the season.....feelin' for those that had the Saints moneyline.

blown leads in nfl are starting to be almost as common as nba it feels like. nice week for you indigo 

Thanks,....onwards we go.

o)  A home divisional favorite in December that will be favored their next two games if they are above 500, 50-32-2 ATS....ON Bills, Titans,.....................................this becomes 17-8-1 ATS if their present opponent will be dogs their next two games.....ON Titans

p)  An away December favorite off a loss that will be an away dog their next game.....9-15 ATS, 9-15 o/u.....VERSUS Dolphins

q)  A home December non-divisional favorite with the better w/l percentage than their present opponent that will be an underdog their next two games....19-31 ATS....VERSUS Seahawks

r)  A home December non-divisional favorite with the better record that will be a favorite their next two games....74-54-1 ATS....49ers

s)  A home December non-divisional dog that will be an underdog their next two next games with the worse winning percentage than their present opponent...........44-74-4 ATS....if the game is a non-Sunday game this moves to 1-13-1 ATS (-10.27) and SU 1-14 (-15.87).......VERSUS Cardinals

I have a 112-63-4 ATS college bowl underdog angle, (64%)....I won't go into the details, the qualifying teams are at the bottom.....I've played them all with the exception of Oklahoma that has a big  public consensus on them...there are smart people that are betting in a similar manner to me....it looks like it is judicious thinking to bet my plays early (if you are tailing) as recently I've averaged a half point advantage per game by playing early in the week, rather than close to game time. 

Does it happen every time?,....no, guessing that 40% of the time it is an advantage, 35% of the time there is no advantage and 25% of the time it goes against me.

Pinnacle sports, the biggest/best offshore sportsbook wrote a monthly article on handicapping that was amazing in and of itself a few years ago...normally sportsbooks are greedy and  will cheat or take advantage of players if they can...the fact that they were honest, did not kick winners out,  (though I've heard that they now do so), produced helpful information and offered the best lines were a few reasons why they have been very successful.

Other sportsbooks would do themselves a great service if they studied the pinnacle model of sportsbooks instead of the english model that Draft Kings and Fan Duel have decided to follow, where they bribe people into playing with them, offer the same lines as everyone else and kick out winners.  Greed is a low consciousness quality and their plummeting  share market price demonstrates that that their modus operandi is a failure.  Almost certainly the powers-that-be in those sportsbooks  pumped and dumped their stock and have made out with quite a bit of money.

The article was written by pinnacle  5-10 years ago disseminating information that one way to predict a successful bettor is if the line moves his way more often than not, which I was not aware of prior to gleaning their article.

I read recently that evidently now pinnacle has a presence in  in Canada.....one wonders if they will be allowed to offer -105, or -107 lines as they have for  many years offshore, as in the USA, no sportsbooks to my knowledge have competed on the basis of price as of yet.  I've long said that if a sportsbook did the matchbook thing and did a sportsbook exchange (for every bet on one side another bettor takes the other side) similar to the stock market, and made their commission 2-5 cents instead of 10 that the floodgates would open and others would be forced to at least consider giving bettors a better deal, similar to how  commissions in the  stock market have come way down from years ago. 

Obviously would love it if pinnacle came to the USA.

1)  South Carolina

2)  NM State

3)  Kansas

4)  Texas Tech

5)  Syracuse

6)  Wyoming

Plays:

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

4)  Jets +10

5)  Patriots -1

6)  Browns +6

These queries show why it gets tougher late in the NFL season for bettors who prefer road dogs (AD = Away Dog):

AD and p:L and wins < o:wins and week < 13.5 --- ATS:  54.8% 

AD and p:L and wins < o:wins and week > 13.5 --- ATS:  47.0%

That 7.8% difference is huge.

Agreed, thanks for the share.

Here's another angle that looks at how away teams do when the line is smaller than than what would normally be expected for a team that has a much bigger winning percentage than their present opponent.  It again brings home the idea that the pointspread will often tell you which way to play a certain game.  Remember, for our database purposes a greater line does not mean a stronger line, so +6 would be greater than +3, and +3 would be greater than -2, etc.

t)  A Sunday away team with greater than 4 more wins than their present opponent with a line of >-4 (so -3.5, -2.5, +2, etc.) after October.......7-19 ATS.......VERSUS Vikings....normally we would expect the dominant team to a much  stronger line as in the case of the Chiefs this week over the Broncos (and even in that case our dominant team's ATS record is  only 43-51).  This becomes 4-16 ATS in games played before week 16.

A and t:wins-o:wins>4 and day = Sunday and DIV and month>10 and n:playoffs=0 and line>-4

Talking turnovers.......

u)  Home teams in divisional matchup with the turnover margin DISADVANTAGE have gone 53-46-2 ATS, 38-60-2 o/u in week 14....if our home team has less wins than their present opponent this moves to 34-33 ATS and 26-39-2 o/u

For example in this week's matchup, the Lions' turnover margin for the season is +1 and the Vikings' is +8....tA(TOM) would calculate average turnover margin per game.  For you SDQLers, or those just starting out with it, I could not get this function to work on killersports, so I used gimmethedog.  Gimmethedog usually gives slightly differing results, but usually not enough to change one's angle on a game....they don't display multiple possibilities on a game in one query, for example the results of AD, AF, HF all at one time, which is why I don't use it as much as killersports.

tA(turnover margin)-oA(turnover margin)>0 and H and week<17 and DIV and t:wins<o:wins

On the other hand NON-DIVISIONAL home teams in the exact same situation give almost reciprocal  results on totals.........39-24 OVER......OVER Cardinals/Patriots

Plays..........Adding:

7)  Lions/Vikings UNDER 53

8)  Steelers/Ravens UNDER 37

9)  Giants/Eagles UNDER 45'

10) Cardinals/Patriots OVER 44'

_____________________________________

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

4)  Jets +10

5)  Patriots -1

6)  Browns +6

Got things working on killersports now.....

On the other hand road away teams with the turnover disadvantage in week 14 have tended to go UNDER....33-47-4 o/u....UNDER Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers

Adding more......

11)  Cowboys/Texans UNDER 44'

12)  49ers/Bucs UNDER 37

13)  Seahawks/Panthers UNDER 43'

_______________________________________

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

4)  Jets +10

5)  Patriots -1

6)  Browns +6

7)  Lions/Vikings UNDER 53

8)  Steelers/Ravens UNDER 37

9)  Giants/Eagles UNDER 45'

10) Cardinals/Patriots OVER 44'

Referring to thread #39....in the NFL a positive turnover ratio means that a team has generated more turnovers than they have committed.....the higher the number almost always means the better the team, which makes sense as various data scientists have calculated one turnoveri is worth approximately 4 points.  The  teams with the highest positive turnover margin in the NFL rankings this season have been the Eagles, Cowboys and Vikings.

The worst teams in turnovers in 2022 have been the Colts, Saints and Rams.

In our database however, the calculation is reversed, as turnover margin is calculated by taking the amount of turnovers committed and subtracting the amount of turnovers created......SO THE MORE NEGATIVE THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE TEAM HAS PERFORMED in our database.

Going back 30+ years, after week 8, teams with a average turnover margin/game ADVANTAGE over their present opponent of at least .5 have covered the spread only 47% of the time, 45% of the time as underdogs and 47.7% of the time as favorites.  

Of course you should now be thinking that like most stats in the NFL, this is a regressive indicator, which means that we should NOT expect what has happened before to continue in the same manner.

“In fiction we find the predictable boring. In real life we find the unpredictable terrifying.”
? Mokokoma Mokhonoana

Line going waaaay against me in tonight's Rams/Raiders game.  I was impressed last week with the Rams in their loss versus the Seahawks and the Seahawks are a vastly better team than the Raiders.  Raiders are 0-3 ATS this season as away favorite...with home dogs cashing this season, I don't regret the bet, but of course I wish I had gotten a better line.  

Another angle......

v)  In December, when an away dog has an average of least a 6 points per game covering against the spread deficit compared to their opponent, the away dog has  gone 92-110-3 ATS, and 83-117-5 o/u, 41.5%.......UNDER Bucs, UNDER Texans

Teams covering margin per game in 2022.....1)  Bucs -4.75  2)  49ers +2.92   3)  Texans -8.25  4)  Cowboys +8.58

tA(ats margin) - oA(ats margin) < -6 and AD and month = 12  and n:playoffs=0

Maybe I DO regret my Rams bet.......lol!

w)  A below 500 away favorite in December that is on at least a two game winning streak....7-1 ATS.....ON Raiders

tA(W) < .5 and streak >= 2 and AF and month = 12 and n:playoffs=0

Plays for the week:

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'

4)  Jets +10

5)  Patriots -1

6)  Browns +6

7)  Lions/Vikings UNDER 53

8)  Steelers/Ravens UNDER 37

9)  Giants/Eagles UNDER 45'

10) Cardinals/Patriots OVER 44'

11)  Cowboys/Texans UNDER 44'

12)  49ers/Bucs UNDER 37

13)  Seahawks/Panthers UNDER 43'

1)  Lions +1'

2)  Steelers pik

3)  Rams +5'....winner........WOW, I was just about to compliment those that got a line of +6'....lol!!...sometimes the gambling gods just decide to smile onya.

4)  Jets +10

5)  Patriots -1

6)  Browns +6

7)  Lions/Vikings UNDER 53

8)  Steelers/Ravens UNDER 37

9)  Giants/Eagles UNDER 45'

10) Cardinals/Patriots OVER 44'

11)  Cowboys/Texans UNDER 44'

12)  49ers/Bucs UNDER 37

13)  Seahawks/Panthers UNDER 43'

Public betting percentages.....King of Covers contest and pregame.com

                                             KOC                           Pregame

1)  Lions +1'                           49%                           39%

2)  Steelers pik                       62%                           47%

3)  Rams +5'....winner             40%                          31%

4)  Jets +10                            62%                          35%

5)  Patriots -1                         58%                          47%

6)  Browns +6                         30%                         18%

7)  Lions UNDER 53                  31%                        35%

8)  Steelers UNDER 37              61%                        53%

9)  Giants UNDER 45'                45%                        50%

10) Cardinals OVER 44'             47%                        34%

11)  Cowboys UNDER 44'           33%                        29%

12)  49ers/Bucs UNDER 37        52%                         42%

13)  Seahawks UNDER 43'         48%                         22%

I hope I9 is OK.  It is unlike him to delay updating his weekly results, especially this long.

Agree, hope all is OK with Indigo... 

Ja, easy to not update when you've had a sucky week, though I have been sick too, so thanks for the concern.

We go 4-7 ATS for the week to bring us to 99-69 for the season with the Patriots -1 pending,..........I think that is right.

@Indigo999

 Also Cardinals/ Patriots over 44.5 still pending.