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Week 8 NFL - Preliminary handicapping; early leans. My lines versus the books'

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Legend
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Posted: #1
1st part. 2nd part will have the percentages updated to get a snapshot of where the monies are.
 
For now -- creating my own lines; searching for sucker bets; looking for QB's to fade.
 
DEN: B+Kyle Orton   B+Correll Buckhalter   C-Knowshon Moreno   C-Brandon Marshall   A+Jabar Gaffney
BAL: B-/C-Joe Flacco   B-Ray Rice   B+Willis McGahee   B+Derrick Mason   C+Mark Clayton
My line: Baltimore -2.5, 39
 
HOU: C+Matt Schaub   C+Steve Slaton   B+Chris Brown   B-Andre Johnson   C+Owen Daniels
BUF: B-Ryan Fitzpatrick   C-Marshawn Lynch   C-Fred Jackson   A+Terrell Owens   C-Lee Evans
My line: Buffalo pk, 46.5
 
CLE: B-Derek Anderson   B+Jamal Lewis   B-Jerome Harrison   B+Mohamed Massaquoi   C-Mike Furrey
CHI: C+Jay Cutler   C+Matt Forte   A+Earl Bennett   C-Devin Hester   B-/C-Greg Olsen
My line: Chicago -10, 43
 
SEA: C-Matt Hasselbeck   A+Julius Jones   C+Edgerrin James   C-T.J. Houshmandzadeh   C-Nate Burleson
DAL: B-/C+Tony Romo   A+Marion Barber   B+Felix Jones   B+Miles Austin   C-Jason Witten
My line: Dallas -7.5, 48
 
STL: B+Marc Bulger   C+Steven Jackson   B+Keenan Burton   A+Donnie Avery   C-Randy McMichael
DET: B+Daunte Culpepper (QUES)  A+Kevin Smith   C-Calvin Johnson (QUES)   C-Dennis Northcutt   B+Bryant Johnson   A+Brandon Pettigrew
My line: St. Louis -2.5, 47
 
SF: C+Shaun Hill   A+Frank Gore   B+Glen Coffee   B-/C+Vernon Davis   C-Josh Morgan
IND: C-Peyton Manning   C-Joseph Addai   B+Donald Brown   C-C-Reggie Wayne   B-Dallas Clark
My line: Indianapolis -17; 52
Note: Love the Over for this game. If the 49ers defense couldn't stop Matt Schaub how will they handle Peyton Manning?
 
MIA: B+Chad Henne   C-Ronnie Brown   A-/B+Ricky Williams   B+Davone Bess   CTed Ginn Jr.
NYJ: C-Mark Sanchez   B-Thomas Jones   C-Dustin Keller   B-Braylon Edwards   B-/C+Jerricho Cotchery (QUES)
My line: NY Jets -3.5, 38.5
Note: Revenge game but this looks like another good spot to fade Mark Sanchez.
 
Legend
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NYG: B-/C+Eli Manning   B-Brandon Jacobs   AAhmad Bradshaw   B-Steve Smith   B+Mario Manningham
PHI: C+Donovan McNabb   C+Brian Westbrook   C+LeSean McCoy   ABrent Celek   C-DeSean Jackson
My line: Philadelphia -3.5, 42
 
JAC: C-David Garrard   B-/C+Maurice Jones-Drew   C-Torry Holt   A+Mike Sims-Walker   B+Marcedes Lewis
TEN: C+Kerry Collins   D-Chris Johnson   B-/C-Kenny Britt   B-Justin Gage   C-Nate Washington
My line: Tennessee -2.5, 37
 
OAK: B-JaMarcus Russell   B-/C+Michael Bush   B-/C-Justin Fargas   C-Zach Miller   B-/C+Louis Murphy
SD: C+Philip Rivers   B+LaDainian Tomlinson   C-Darren Sproles   C-Vincent Jackson   AAntonio Gates
My line: San Diego -16, 39
 
CAR: B-Jake Delhomme   B+DeAngelo Williams   AJonathan Stewart   B-Steve Smith   B+Dante Rosario
ARI: B+Kurt Warner   B-/C-Tim Hightower   B+Beanie Wells   C-C-Larry Fitzgerald   C-Anquan Boldin
My line: Arizona -5.5, 38.5
 
MIN: B+Brett Favre   B-Adrian Peterson  B+Chester Taylor   B-Sidney Rice   A+Bernard Berrian   AVisanthe Shiancoe
GB: C-Aaron Rodgers   C+Ryan Grant   B+Brandon Jackson   C-Donald Driver   C-Greg Jennings   B+Donald Lee
My line: Green Bay -1.5, 44.5
 
ATL: C+Matt Ryan   C+Michael Turner   A+Jason Snelling   C-Roddy White   C-Tony Gonzalez
NO: C+Drew Brees   B+Pierre Thomas   C-Reggie Bush   B+Marques Colston   B-Jeremy Shockey
My line: New Orleans -6, 49
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
WERE CAN I GET SF + 17 
 
Legend
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Legend
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Part 2: taking a snapshot of the percentages. Meant to do this earlier in the week but i was waiting for the covers.com lines for the Rams/Lions game to be updated.
 
54% DEN: B+Kyle Orton   B+Correll Buckhalter   C-Knowshon Moreno   C-Brandon Marshall   A+Jabar Gaffney
46% BAL: B-/C-Joe Flacco   B-Ray Rice   B+Willis McGahee   B+Derrick Mason   C+Mark Clayton
My line: Baltimore -2.5, 39
 
71% HOU: C+Matt Schaub   C+Steve Slaton   B+Chris Brown   B-Andre Johnson   C+Owen Daniels
29% BUF: B-Ryan Fitzpatrick   C-Marshawn Lynch   C-Fred Jackson   A+Terrell Owens   C-Lee Evans
My line: Buffalo pk, 46.5
 
41% CLE: B-Derek Anderson   B+Jamal Lewis   B-Jerome Harrison   B+Mohamed Massaquoi   C-Mike Furrey
59% CHI: C+Jay Cutler   C+Matt Forte   A+Earl Bennett   C-Devin Hester   B-/C-Greg Olsen
My line: Chicago -10, 43
 
39% SEA: C-Matt Hasselbeck   A+Julius Jones   C+Edgerrin James   C-T.J. Houshmandzadeh   C-Nate Burleson
61% DAL: B-/C+Tony Romo   A+Marion Barber   B+Felix Jones   B+Miles Austin   C-Jason Witten
My line: Dallas -7.5, 48
 
40% STL: B+Marc Bulger   C+Steven Jackson   B+Keenan Burton   A+Donnie Avery   C-Randy McMichael
60% DET: B+Daunte Culpepper (QUES)  A+Kevin Smith   C-Calvin Johnson (QUES)   C-Dennis Northcutt   B+Bryant Johnson   A+Brandon Pettigrew
My line: St. Louis -2.5, 47
 
36% SF: C+Shaun Hill   A+Frank Gore   B+Glen Coffee   B-/C+Vernon Davis   C-Josh Morgan
64% IND: C-Peyton Manning   C-Joseph Addai   B+Donald Brown   C-C-Reggie Wayne   B-Dallas Clark
My line: Indianapolis -17; 52
Note: Love the Over for this game. If the 49ers defense couldn't stop Matt Schaub how will they handle Peyton Manning?
 
53% MIA: B+Chad Henne   C-Ronnie Brown   A-/B+Ricky Williams   B+Davone Bess   CTed Ginn Jr.
47% NYJ: C-Mark Sanchez   B-Thomas Jones   C-Dustin Keller   B-Braylon Edwards   B-/C+Jerricho Cotchery (QUES)
My line: NY Jets -3.5, 38.5
Note: Revenge game but this looks like another good spot to fade Mark Sanchez.
 
 
 
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67% NYG: B-/C+Eli Manning   B-Brandon Jacobs   AAhmad Bradshaw   B-Steve Smith   B+Mario Manningham
33% PHI: C+Donovan McNabb   C+Brian Westbrook   C+LeSean McCoy   ABrent Celek   C-DeSean Jackson
My line: Philadelphia -3.5, 42
 
46% JAC: C-David Garrard   B-/C+Maurice Jones-Drew   C-Torry Holt   A+Mike Sims-Walker   B+Marcedes Lewis
54% TEN: C+Kerry Collins   D-Chris Johnson   B-/C-Kenny Britt   B-Justin Gage   C-Nate Washington
My line: Tennessee -2.5, 37
 
40% OAK: B-JaMarcus Russell   B-/C+Michael Bush   B-/C-Justin Fargas   C-Zach Miller   B-/C+Louis Murphy
60% SD: C+Philip Rivers   B+LaDainian Tomlinson   C-Darren Sproles   C-Vincent Jackson   AAntonio Gates
My line: San Diego -16, 39
 
26% CAR: B-Jake Delhomme   B+DeAngelo Williams   AJonathan Stewart   B-Steve Smith   B+Dante Rosario
74% ARI: B+Kurt Warner   B-/C-Tim Hightower   B+Beanie Wells   C-C-Larry Fitzgerald   C-Anquan Boldin
My line: Arizona -5.5, 38.5
 
65% MIN: B+Brett Favre   B-Adrian Peterson  B+Chester Taylor   B-Sidney Rice   A+Bernard Berrian   AVisanthe Shiancoe
35% GB: C-Aaron Rodgers   C+Ryan Grant   B+Brandon Jackson   C-Donald Driver   C-Greg Jennings   B+Donald Lee
My line: Green Bay -1.5, 44.5
 
44% ATL: C+Matt Ryan   C+Michael Turner   A+Jason Snelling   C-Roddy White   C-Tony Gonzalez
56% NO: C+Drew Brees   B+Pierre Thomas   C-Reggie Bush   B+Marques Colston   B-Jeremy Shockey
My line: New Orleans -6, 49
 
Legend
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Posted: #7

DET: B+Matthew Stafford (PROB)

 

SF: C-Alex Smith

 

TEN: B+Vince Young

 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
titans cover this week  they are on a 0-5 su and ats losing streak! big play for me
 
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any leans on broncos and vikings?
 
Legend
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DENVER BRONCOS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
QB B+Kyle Orton    C-Knowshon Moreno   B+Correll Buckhalter   C-Brandon Marshall   A+Jabar Gaffney    B+Tony Scheffler
 
RT B-/C-Ryan Harris; RG C-Chris Kuper; C B+Casey Wiegmann; LG B+Ben Hamilton; LT B-Ryan Clady
 
DENVER BRONCOS DEFENSE:
 
NT C-Ronald Fields; DE B+Ryan McBean; DE C+Kenny Peterson; LB B+Mario Haggan;  LB C+Andra Davis; LB B+D.J. Williams; LB BElvis Dumervil; CB AChamp Bailey; CB C-Andre' Goodman; SS C-Renaldo Hill; FS C-Brian Dawkins
 
BALTIMORE RAVENS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
B-/C-Joe Flacco   B-Ray Rice   B+Willis McGahee   B+Derrick Mason   C+Mark Clayton    C-Todd Heap
 
RT B+Michael Oher; RG C-Chris Chester; C A+Matt Birk; LG C+Ben Grubbs; LT AJared Gaither
 
BALTIMORE RAVENS DEFENSE:
 
NT A-/B+Kelly Gregg; DE C-Trevor Pryce; DE AHaloti Ngata; LB A+Jarret Johnson; LB B-/C-Ray Lewis; LB B+Tavares Gooden; LB C-Terrell Suggs; CB A+Fabian Washington; CB B+Domonique Foxworth; SS A+Dawan Landry; FS B-/C-Ed Reed
 
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3½ -109
Strength: 2 out of 5 stars
 
Lots of good ratings for the Ravens defense where it'll matter most, the secondary.
 
This game might also be a surprisingly high scoring affair. Lots of good ratings for both offenses.
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Good Luck Kane
 
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BOL BUD
 
Legend
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
B+Brett Favre   B-Adrian Peterson  B+Chester Taylor   B-Sidney Rice   A+Bernard Berrian   AVisanthe Shiancoe
 
RT B-Phil Loadholt; RG B-Anthony Herrera; C B-John Sullivan; LG A+Steve Hutchinson; LT B+Bryant McKinnie
 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS DEFENSE:
 
DT C-Pat Williams; DT B-Kevin Williams; DE C+Ray Edwards; DE BJared Allen; LB C-Chad Greenway; LB C+E.J. Henderson; LB B-/C+Ben Leber; CB B-Karl Paymah; CB C+Cedric Griffin; SS B-/C-Tyrell Johnson; FS B+Madieu Williams
 
GREEN BAY PACKERS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
C-Aaron Rodgers   C+Ryan Grant   B+Brandon Jackson   C-Donald Driver   C-Greg Jennings   B+Donald Lee
 
RT C-Allen Barbre; RG B-Josh Sitton; C D-Scott Wells; LG C+Daryn Colledge; LT B-/C-T.J. Lang
 
GREEN BAY PACKERS DEFENSE:
 
NT B-/C-Ryan Pickett; DE B-Johnny Jolly; DE B+Cullen Jenkins; LB A+Aaron Kampman; LB C+A.J. Hawk; LB C-Nick Barnett; LB B+Jeremy Thompson; CB A+Charles Woodson; CB A+Al Harris; SS C-Atari Bigby; FS B+Nick Collins
 
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 -125
Strength: 1 out of 5 stars
 
The Packers O-Line issues doesn't look all that resolved. But i'd bank on the Packers defense to pull out a victory in Lambeau.
 
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Posted: #15
good luck today kane
 
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Posted: #16

Thanks for the work/grades Kane.

Loving Balty myself. Also looking at: Minn, NYG, Miami.

Small leans: Dall, Tenn

What rhythms am I overlooking?

 
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Posted: #17

are these the games w/ the greatest diff. in ratings?

 
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Doh!

Played Grand Pa +3

BOL Kane.

 
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MIAMI DOLPHINS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
B+Chad Henne   C-Ronnie Brown   A-/B+Ricky Williams   B+Davone Bess   CTed Ginn Jr.    CAnthony Fasano
 
RT C-Vernon Carey; RG C-Donald Thomas; C C-Jake Grove; LG C+Justin Smiley; LT C-Jake Long
 
MIAMI DOLPHINS DEFENSE:
 
NT C-Jason Ferguson; DE B+Kendall Langford; DE C+Randy Starks; LB B-/C-Jason Taylor; LB B-Reggie Torbor; LB B+Akin Ayodele; LB B-/C+Joey Porter; CB B+Vontae Davis; CB B-/C+Sean Smith; SS B-/C+Yeremiah Bell; FS C+Gibril Wilson
 
NY JETS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
C-Mark Sanchez   B-Thomas Jones   C-Dustin Keller   B-Braylon Edwards   A+David Clowney
 
RT A+Damien Woody; RG C+Brandon Moore; C C-Nick Mangold; LG AAlan Faneca; LT C+D'Brickashaw Ferguson
 
NY JETS DEFENSE:
 
NT A+Sione Pouha; DE B-Shaun Ellis; DE B+Marques Douglas; LB C-Bryan Thomas; LB B-/C+Bart Scott; LB ADavid Harris; LB B-/C-Calvin Pace; CB C-Darrelle Revis; CB B-Donald Strickland; SS BJim Leonhard; FS C-Kerry Rhodes
 
Pick: Under 40½ -109
Strength: 3 out of 5 stars
 
Legend
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Posted: #21

I'm going through a low mojo/unlucky streak right now.

So i might just play some fave Moneylines SU.

I'll most likely lay the juice on Green Bay Moneyline.

indiobear - I haven't found a game with the greatest discrepancies in ratings yet. Not like the Bills/Panthers of last week where we predicted an out-right Bills win.
 
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HOUSTON TEXANS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
C+Matt Schaub   C+Steve Slaton   B+Chris Brown   B-Andre Johnson   C-Kevin Walter   C+Owen Daniels
 
RT B+Eric Winston; RG B-Chris White; C C-Chris Myers; LG B+Kasey Studdard; LT C-Duane Brown
 
HOUSTON TEXANS DEFENSE:
 
DT A+Shaun Cody; DT C-Amobi Okoye; DE B+Antonio Smith; DE C+Mario Williams; LB B-/C+Brian Cushing; LB B-/C-DeMeco Ryans; LB A+Zac Diles; CB C-Jacques Reeves; CB C-Dunta Robinson; SS B-Bernard Pollard; FS B-Eugene Wilson
 
BUFFALO BILLS OFFENSE & O-LINE:
 
B-Ryan Fitzpatrick   C-Marshawn Lynch   C-Fred Jackson   A+Terrell Owens   C-Lee Evans   C-Derek Fine
 
RT B-Seth McKinney; RG AEric Wood; C B+Geoff Hangartner; LG C-Andy Levitre; LT C-Demetrius Bell
 
BUFFALO BILLS DEFENSE:
 
DT B-/C+Marcus Stroud; DT C-Spencer Johnson; DE BChris Kelsay; DE C-Aaron Schobel; LB B-Jon Corto; LB B-/C+Paul Posluszny; LB C-Keith Ellison; CB B+Terrence McGee; CB C+Drayton Florence; SS B+Jairus Byrd; FS C-George Wilson
 
Pick: Over 42 -105
Strength: 4 out of 5 stars
 
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GL today Kane
 
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BOL Kane.
 
 
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Thanks for the info. HappyKane
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