Week 3 Discussion Thread

cadberry,

 

I am glad that you enjoy the thread, I appreciate the kind words.  It is a win win for everybody.  My thoughts go out on paper and it is for the world to see.  Don't want to give a list of plays because I sell bets before the game and go for middles and halftime plays.  My analysis should be pretty clear on who I thik will win the game.

 

My suggestion to you would be to stay away from betting on Tennesse games if you are in this business to make money.  If you throw down a few bucks to make the game more exciting, then discard the last sentence.

 

Ask yourself this question.  If this game was played in week 1 what would the line be? 

 

Ikre,

 

Have a pure hatred for the Bears team.  However, I must be objective while handicaping.  The left side of the line has held up much better then expected wouldn't you say?  The defense is for real IF THEY STAY HEALTHY.  Orton is a huge improvement over Grossman.  The receivers suck we know this.  With Griese leading the troops for T.B. I lean Chicago.  If it were Garcia I would most likely lay off.  Chicago will be electric for the home opener.  Do you have an injury update on Galloway and/or Talib.  Galloway is a huge loss if he doesn't go.  Tampa Bay will have zero deep threat.

 

 

Only playing one game again this Sun. just like last week with Tenn. already locked & loaded on Carolina +3.5 10units

 

GL to all with your plays

This is what I have it narrowed down to as of Tuesday evening....

 

Oakland +9.5 @ Buffallo

 

I am concerned with Oakland traveling across the country to play an early morning game against the Bills.  I had this line at 7 or 7.5 tops.  There is value at +9.5 unless I am missing something. 

 

Houston @ Tennessee

 

Tennesse is everyones new favorite pick.  I like the Titans, but arent we asking a little much in this game?  Tenn doesn't only have to win, but by margin.  Had this pegged at a field goal.  5 is to much

 

Arizona @ Washington

 

FLIP FLOPPED ON THIS GAME. Have not yet pulled the trigger on the Cardinals.  The more I read the more I am leaning to making a play on the Cardinals.  Kurt Warner is playing great and not turning the ball over.  I just don't like betting the west coast teams early on Sunday mornings.  Do the Birds have enough to beat the skins.  I can make a case for both sides but am now leaning toward the cards.

 

Miami @ New England

 

Who wants to back these pathetic dolphins?  Interesting with a total set at 34.5 that the Pats are laying -13.  What is the line if Brady is in the game?  Can't believe I am considering this, but now I am.

 

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

 

This game is mostly feel.  I am already locked and loaded on the Bears - the FG.  With Griese at qb, I like my chances with the home team.

 

Carolina @ Minesota

 

I thought I got an insane Carolina ML at +189!  Now +192 is available and the line has jumped Minesota -3.5?  I must be missing something on this game.  I am getting cold feet with my early Carolina play.

 

Pitt @ Philly

 

Hold on a second.... Why can we get the best team in the AFC +180 on the ML?  Someone please explain this to me.  Please!

 

Jacksonville @ Indy

 

Everyone knows my thoughts on this game.  Jax moneyline at some point.  Liked my +248 bid but that never got touched.  Will have to build a position later in the week.

 

Everything else will have to be nothing or a halftime play.  Am I making any glaring mistakes?  Are there any games that I left off that I should be looking in to?

 

 

 

nice start male good luck this week always enjoy the threads

Love the carolina and bears pick I ll take Delhomme at +3.5 anytime the main difference is habitual winners vs habitual losers so dont fret bud

Good thread.

 

I'm gonna try to give a little insight on the games here.

 

Atlanta-KC  I'm kinda split on this one.  Part of me says Atlanta doesn't deserve to be laying 5 to anyone in the NFL.  The final score in the Detroit game was a bit deceptive as they really didn't play all that good.  They had a few big plays to jump out 21-0, but after that I thought Detroit actually played a better game.  Tampa Bay pretty much brought them down to earth and that was with awful Griese at the helm.  The other part of me thinks Atlanta may be the play simply because of how awful Kansas City's run defense is.  As bad as Atlanta is right now, don't forget that just a few years ago they were an elite team in the rushing department.  Things went bad as we know on a whole for the organization, but maybe that ground game will be the thing that this squad slowly builds around as Ryan gets his feet wet.  And KC is a perfect team to beat down in the trenches.  All in all, a pass for me.

 

Buffalo-Oakland  Way too many points here.  I will be taking the points, but I would be so much more confident if Russell could just make a throw or two.  He has looked awful.  They sure can run the ball even without Fargas though.  On the other side, I can't take away how Buffalo has played because they are truly taking care of business, but I don't think they are as good as people(and the books) seem to believe.  The Seattle final was way inflated from what I saw, and they were a play or two from being beat by a broken down Jacksonville team.  If Oakland can play a smart and mistake free game, I can see an upset.

 

Tennessee-Houston  I'm starting to like this Tennessee team, but 5 points?  I also don't believe in this "the team is better with Collins" shit that has been flying around.  By no means am I a Vince Young supporter, but that team is NOT better without him.  Are they a more physical team than Houston?  Yep.  Are they a better all around team than Houston?  I think so.  If Houston comes off this bye with a fire up their ass after that Pitt beatdown, and puts up a few early TDs, will Tennessee be able to fire back enough to not only win, but cover 5+?  That I don't think so.  If I bet, I believe I will be taking the Texans.

 

Giants-Cincy.  This is a lot of points and against ANY other team in the league, right now in Week 3, I would take the Bengals and the points.  Not against the Giants though.  This team is absolutely nasty with the rush they bring, and they should quell any fire Cincy will try to bring.

 

Washington-Arizona  Tough game.  I'm not too sure what to think here.  I think Arizona is the better team, but this isn't exactly the best spot for them.  I can see a hard fought 20-17 game with either side getting the V.

 

NE-Miami  Another case of too many points.  I'm not sold yet on the Pats laying 13 without Brady.

 

 

Chicago-Tampa Bay   We are on the same page here.  I gotta wonder why Gruden refuses to go with Garcia.  The guy is a proven winner, and he rescued a team that was mired in quicksand for a couple of years and took them to the playoffs.  When it happened, that Giant beat was tough for them to swallow, but in hindsight they ran into a buzzsaw before anyone realized that the Giants were a buzzsaw.  The Bears are only a year removed from a SB berth, and Orton really has done nothing but win for this squad.  The crowd should be rocking in the home opener, and I think they win by double digits.  Like you said, I may think twice if Garcia was QB'ing, but he's not, so the Bears are a play for me.

 

Minny-Carolina  I'm with you here also.  I love this Carolina squad.  Delhomme is warrior and a proven winner.  Steve Smith is coming back.  The defense is young and fast and always around the ball.  After last season ended, I got them at like +3000 to win the Super Bowl and so far they have impressed me.  I'm a little worried with the penalties on the offensive side of the ball as they squashed more than a couple drives in both the SD and the Bear game, but overall they are looking good.  I sure wish they would make Stewart the primary ball carrier though.  The run game is much improved when he is in(which coincidentally has been late in the game getting the tough yards).  Minny is a team that is a decent QB from being a MUCH better squad.  Jackson just isn't doing it.  Sure hes young and maybe he needs that 2-3 year learning curve to become a decent QB, but that isn't helping a team that RIGHT now is a team that DOMINATES the line of scrimmage.  If Carolina gets up on them, the gameplan(cough cough AP) goes south, and suddenly that scary dominant line isn't so much a factor.  Shit, even when this team is up, they still need a QB that can convert a 3rd and 2 once in awhile, and Jackson can't do that right now.  I'm gonna sit on this for awhile.  If the line goes up to 4, I'm jumping on Carolina and the points.  If it settles back to 3, then I'm gonna take a shot with Carolina ML.

 

Seattle-St Louis.  Okay, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league.  The fact that they played two very good teams to start the season is an excellent argument towards them being a good play at +10, but I just don't think I can back them even against a broken down Seattle team.  If Seattle is a healthy 0-2, I pound the Hawks.  But they're not, so this will be a pass.

 

San Fran-Detroit   The 49ers are my surprise team this year.  I only played a few props this year(the others being Carolina to win the SB, Carolina to win the South, and Arizona over 7 games), but one of them was the 49ers OVER 6.5 wins.  I thought they would win at home against Arizona, but 5 awful turnovers made them look a lot worse then they are.  I have to admit their D hasn't looked anywhere near as good as I thought they would be, but all the turnovers and short fields hasn't helped their cause.  I was impressed with their fight in the Seattle game, and by all means they SHOULD beat down the Lions here.  I think I may pass and root on my prop bet though.  The Lions are a team that people like to shit on, but believe it or not, I think that they haven't played all too bad thus far.  I think they played better ball than the Falcons for 3 quarters, and don't forget they were beating the Packers outright with under 5 minutes left to play.  So I'm gonna pass and hope the 49ers can start 2-1 and make my prop bet look real good after three games.

 

Denver-New Orleans  Tough game here.  Denver obviously has looked pretty good to start the season.  Cutler is the real deal and that offense should score a lot of points before its all said and done.  New Orleans is probably the NFC version of them.  Sick offense, questionable defense.  In a game like this, I'll always take the points, but I'm worried about the injuries on the Saints.  Deuce obviously is missing and while he isn't the beast he was a few years back, they do miss him.  Now Colston is hurt and while Brees still has some decent targets to throw to, Champ Bailey will make sure Devery or Patten will be taken out of that equasion.  Shockey SHOULD be the go to guy, but for such a TE heavy offense, he has been kinda quiet, no?  Maybe he's still hurting a bit from the broken leg?  The over is an obvious look, but betting "obvious" in the NFL will get you sodomized and left for dead.  I may pass and watch strictly for entertainment and future reference.

Indy-Jax   Goddamn, it seems like so many teams and games  have huge "ifs" attached to them.  Here's another.  IF Jax wasn't so beat up, I wouldn't think twice about jumping on them getting 5+ points.  Now with Indy, is Manning slowly rounding into the form we've all known the last 7 years(judging from his 4th quarter performance), or was that a young Minnesota team collapsing that gave the Colts that 18-15 come from behind victory?  I talked about Jacksonville's injuries, but Indy may be just as banged up.  Their whole O-line is beat to shit.  I believe Sanders got hurt again on the defensive side of things.  I just don't know about this game.

 

Baltimore-Cleveland  Going into the year, I had Cleveland penciled as one of the overrated teams in the league and Baltimore as one of the underrated teams.  Cleveland has some playmakers and they sure are fun to watch, but they won a lot of close games to wind up 10-6.  They very well could have been 7-9.  Starting the season against the Cowboys, and then a game in 50 MPH winds against the Steelers may not be the best circumstances, but it is what it is, and they must win here.  While Baltimore's D is aging, they are still a tough squad, and could be a very good D if the offense ever gives them a break.  They are without McGahee and couple that with being stuck with a young QB, and the defense may not get that break.  To make up for the lack of a QB, it looks like they are going the "ram the ball down your throat game" and a soft team like Cleveland is the kind of team they can beat like that.  If Flacco can play a smart turnover free game, I can see Baltimore burying this team.  Slight lean on Baltimore(prob a pass though).

 

San Diego-Jets   San Diego's D has surprised me a bit.  Both Denver and Carolina have had their way with this team offensively.  I'm not quite sure if they ran into two really good offensive squads or if their D is overrated.  Maybe a little of both?  Anyway Rivers seems to have this offense rolling, and they very well COULD put up a lot of points on the Jets(with or without LT).  9.5 points is a lot of points though.  Especially when the team hasn't showed me they could play a lick of defense.  The Jets run D has also impressed me a bit.  Sure it was the Fins and the Brady-less Patriots that their run D was stellar against, but if they continue that trend, it will put the game strictly on Rivers shoulders.  Rivers has shown me that he indeed can win a game in that situation, but it still makes Gates less effective when the LB's are playing pass and keying on him, rather then biting on a possible LT run.  On the other side, I think Mangini(better known as "the box" to me) will actually open the offense up a bit, and if SD's D plays the way they have the last two weeks, Favre and company should be able to put up some points.  I think SD will win, but 9.5 is too many points.

 

Philly-Pitt   Great game here.  My book has Philly -3(-125) and I don't want to pay that juice so I'm waiting it out.  I'm fairly sure the line will bump to -3.5 though.  That sucks, but what can I do?  I think the Philly offense will give the Steelers fits.  McNabb looked awesome.  The o-line gave him plenty of time the majority of the night.  Westbrook seemingly is a play away from a 70 yard run every time he touches the ball.  I worry that the short week and that Dallas slugfest will take a bit of a toll on Philly, but I still think they beat the Steelers here.  The key to this game is the Eagle run defense, imo.  I know Barber had a few nice runs late in the game, but I don't think he had 25 yards after 3 quarters.  I thought the Eagle D-line looked mighty against a stellar Dallas running game, and I think they can shut down the Steelers in the same fashion.  They also dominated the Rams O-line, but thats not the best selling point as the Rams are awful.  Eagle are a play the second I can lose that juice although most likely I will be on them -3.5.

 

Dallas-Green Bay   Great NFC matchup here.  I can ramble all day, but my gut tells me the Pack pull off the mini upset at home.  Rodgers has been pretty good and the Pack D has been a little better then the numbers may show.  I'm gonna wait and hopefully catch the hook.

I played on Oakland +3.5 over KC; and San Diego +1.

Well, I didn't lose! The SD vs Denver game was absolute bull shit. I would have won if that fumble had the proper call. Oh well, rather a push than a loss.

 

Week three......

 Jets +9 (MNF)

Philadelphia -3

Carolina +3.5

Chezman, what is your avatar from?

Car-Min:  Everyone seems to be on Car, but this is going to be perhaps the most physical game of the year thus far. I can see how Minny is favoured, Carolina's strength is running the ball, and Minny's strength is stopping the run wit the Williams Bros-EJ Henderson inside. Delhomme is a gutsy qb, but at this point in his career after tommy john surg, hes not gonna pick apart the pass defense as Manning did last week, or Brady did last year. If they go that route, Vikes get pressure and force TO's. Carolina is gonna pound the rock, but into a brick wall. The x-factor has to be steve smith over the top, if Minny limits the big play, they win. TJack is shit, part of it is poor play calling by the coaching staff, opposition is always playing cover 3 on 1st,2nd down and the seams r wide open, if they open up the play calling a bit, get some mild execution, they can win going away.

 

At first glance, I was all over Carolina, but this is a must win for Minny if they have ne playoff hopes. Carolina could be facing a letdown after an emotional week 1 win over SD, a physical game with Chicago, and now they travel to the metrodome. The ML for Car is attractive though, nevertheless, it should be a great game.

 

Also, u should not discount All Day, replay wut he did to an AFC conference champ. representative, and the vaunted Bears D at home.

Also, if TJack struggles in the 1st half, expect to see Frerotte in the 2nd, if Vikes lose this game, their season is over. Childress knows he cant let this game get away from them.

 

very nice read. i like the carolina and pit ml. very nice risk vs reward.

good read, good informatiom---- it helps-later

Play the Giants this week. No way can Cincy cover.

yes i was thinking mcgahee was playing this week too.......will check the injury report on fri.

Male,

 

Oakland vs Buffalo @-9.5

Although there are alot of points to cover in this game Buffalo still seems to me to be the play. Russell hasn't proven to me that he posses the ability to pass the ball at the nfl level which makes the Raiders a one deminsional team playing a very well coached team in the Bills at home. Also there is so much happening behind the scenes with the Raiders right now as far as their coaching situation. I can tell you from experience when coaches talk more about keeping their jobs in a post game interview following a win you know right then that his days are numbered. My prediction is a Bills blowout and within 24 hours the Raiders announce they will need to hire a new coach.

 

Saints vs Denver @-5.5

Denver looks for real on offense playing a team that is made up to out score you not out defend you. The Saints have 0 secondary right now and their back ups back up got injured, on offense they really have no established running game yet this year because of injuries to Stecker and Duce. I just don't see how the Saints can keep up in this game with their current personal that is available to play in this game at this point in the season. Also Denvers one strong point on Defense should be their pass defense which unless Duce plays the Saints will have to rely heavily on without their number 1 receiver. One last point on this game Shannahan going for the win at the end of that game should carry over into this game.

 

I really like your Carolina ML play

 

I also like the Bears. I really hope that Lovie allows Orton to start making some plays later in games instead of just running 3 times to strictly protect the football and not turn it over. I think we are seeing that if you are going to be successful in the NFL you need to be able to make plays later in games inorder not just for scoring but for keeping possesion. Orton has impressed me this year he seems really poised but I guess if you have had to deal with Rex Grossman for 3 years I can see the hesitation in allowing your quarterback to pass late in games when protecting the lead but Lovie is going to have to start trusting Orton because IMO thats why the Panthers where able to take that game and to be honest they had no business winning it..

 

Just to add to the discussion. I do see somthing in KC had Haurd not gotten injuried in the Oakland game would Oakland still have won? If Haurd plays this week against the Falcons I may look at KC here their Defense is better than people are giving them credit for and if Haurd is healthy enough to start this game he may be enough to keep some drives alive so the KC defense doesn't have to be on the field for 60+ plays in a game.

Good thread fellas...kind of new to this meesage board stuff, but I've been taking games for years now. When it comes to NFL, I'm a high risk/high reward kind of guy, meaning I love parlays. I know they are sucker bets but hey, there is nothing like hitting a 4 team ticket.

 Anyways, I'd like to see some more info/thoughts on the totals. Male is absolutely right about wind and not rain/snow making the under hit, Cincy absolutely blows.

What do you guys think about the Oak@Buf over 36.5....kind of low to me.

I'm also leaning towards the Ari@Was over 42...Warner is gun-slinging and Was DB's wont be able to contain Boldin and Fitz. On the other side, Ari has a weak Def

Gotta say I like Car +3.5...until Min gets a QB all you need to do is stop AP

Pitt @ Philly

 

Hold on a second.... Why can we get the best team in the AFC +180 on the ML?  Someone please explain this to me.  Please!


media hype.....

thats the only explanation. ben has a sore shoulder.....
if you take the media hype for fact your gonna be on the wrong side of things...plain and simple. im not saying the eagles are crap....they are most certinly back. i liked what i saw from the defensive line and linebackers. mcnabb looked good execpt for a few miss judements.....witch by the way is the difference between he and ben. ben makes very good pressure decisions and donavon let a few slip near the end of the dallas game. remember the pass to westbrook on the final drive..... ask yourself this.......does brady make that mistake?.....no.....does ben make that mistake.?...no...does payton make that mistake?...no way. that the difference. furthermore, romo is far from mistake free. how tough is it to throw deep to a wide opean TO. how tough is it to use your head in the end zone when you are fumbling and bumbling the ball away to the opponent ? not very....romo is not a championship QB.
mcnabb isnt eaither..but he has experience and if he isnt put in any bad situations where the pressure is on he should deliver. as far as the defense goes......look out. mcnabb will be running all over the place to save his life  and that spells pressure witch = mistakes.
thats the difference in the game. mcnabb mistakes vs big ben mistakes.....who do you want in that scenario. BEN. not to say philly wont hurry ben or sack him..but with a running game as good as the steelers and a run defense like the steelers you have to consider westbrook out of the picture. yea i said it......shut down.
there are good defenses and then there are the steelers. id go with the points at + money. all this hype about the NFC being a stronger conference is just that....HYPE. sandiego without merrimen is still better then philly and dallas. denver is no joke eaither. im not sure what advertizing has to do with football but it does get people hooked even if the message is a half truth. dallas is sexy but they have no heart or smarts. jessica simpson.......has nothing to do with a defensive scheme. dick lebeau does. the names you should worry about are james harrision,james farrior, larry foote, lamar woodley,casey hampton,arron smith, troy polomolu...ect...ect

A rookie here, nice to see all the good luv thats going around.   Im a big teaser guy because well, i jus dont trust myself with regular parlays.

 

Carolina -ML

Jackson vs Delhomme, enough said.  They get Smith back and a 1 demensional offfense never beats a complete team.

 

Jacksonville +5

 

Sanders is out for Indy, enough said.  Indy is beatup and Del Rio will NOT let his team go 0-3.  If Minn had a QB Indy would be 0-2.  Vvvvvery soft right now.  Def. miss saturday and clark.

 

Good luck all, lets make some money this weekend.

Blues player -

 

If you truly think the AFC is still a better conference than the NFC you are beyond mistaken.

 

I don't know if I'll be the Eagles this weekend, but the NFC is clearly the better conference right now.  I could logically argue this but I'll defer to the Super Bowl last year. 

 

If you look at NE games last year....what were their closest games?  Indy, Balt, Philly, Dallas, and NYG twice.  Besides that they blew everyone out.  But 3 of their 4 NFC games were down to the wire.

 

Neither Denver nor the Chargers could go into any of the NFC East stadiums and be expected to win right now...with the exception of the Redskins.

Its funny....Eagles - Cowboys shootout and there is no D in the NFC.  Broncos - Chargers shootout and they have explosive offenses.  Cowboys blow out the Browns in Cleveland and they are flawed.  Pittsburgh squeaks by the Browns and they are the supreme class of the AFC.