***Week 15 Card: Plays and Write Ups****

Tennessee-Houston game is a very tricky play
Houston has been covering the last 4 games (4-0 ATS)
Tennessee just kept on covering (3-1 ATS)

I would lay a small bet on the hotter team which is Houston looking at the last 4 games. But is is a no play for me at this point.

Hey Big Hans,

I like your card for the most part. I teased the Thursday Night Game Last week as the line looked very good to me and it was a Golden Pick. So I am off to a good start this week. I am def going to get down on Balt, Dallas, and Zona if the line stay at -3 or lower. Those 3 games all look good. Denver/Carolina is a no play for me. Denver is too up and down week to week as well as Carolina. The line is now around 9 at most books and I can't back that Denver defense but I think you look alright here. I just got down on ATL as well because these teams are very even but I see some huge advantages for ATL with homefield (5-1 there this year), Matt Ryan vs an ailing Jeff Garcia, and Michael Turner vs that defense that just got gashed. John Clayton just said on ESPN that Garcia is very, very questionable. I am also getting down on Tenn and GB this week as well. Good Luck to you.

I have to say Big Hans that my week goes like this: Spend 2 hours on Thursday handicapping the whole week... lay out my early leans... check covers.com for your card for comparison's sake.  Period end of story.

I think its a little low, most likely because of them clinching their division.  I see it as value, can't wait to watch T-Jack bumble around tomorrow.

Appreciate that man, although there are alot of guys on this forum I would check out before me.  BOL This week

Buying Half a Point.  IE taking 3.5 to 3, or 3 to 2.5.

Yes, although if it goes above that I would recommend buying the hook.  I still like it at 4 tops but at a much lower bet. 

Im thinking you might have a moose that looks like a donkey best of luck anyways

One more for the road. 

Adding

ATL -3 (125) Over Tampa

- Eating alot of juice here, kicking myself for not making my mind up sooner.  It looks like the money is pouring in on ATL as the books are jacking up juice clearly not wanting to move off of 3.  This is probably a big public bet because everyone watched Tampa get absolutely stomped on Monday night.

Reasons:

- My main reasoning is these NFC south teams are playing lights out at home and dogshit on the road.  I don't think its like this every year, although this trend seems to follow Tampa year in and out.  The main thing here is Tampa's defense is absolutely night and day home and away.  I really cannot figure out what causes the huge discrepency, but it is rather glaring.  Oddly enough, ATL is playing slightly worse on defense at home, but it is not nearly the discrepency we see with the Bucs.

- Offensively the ATL is averging over 32 ppg at home and have posted a 5-1 SU and ATS record at home.  Tampa is 3-4 SU and ATS on the road, and that includes two cake walk tilts against Detroit and KC, both games where they fell WAY behind early.  They were fortunate enough to be playing horseshit teams or they would've got routed.  ATL has a QB with poise, a strong running attack, and a few great weapons at WR, so if Tampa falls behind early they are not going to be making up a large deficit, particularly with Garcia banged up.

- This is also a short week for Tampa and back to back road games against division rivals.  Trying not to over-react to the Panthers game, but their lines got completely blown off the ball on both sides, particularly on defense.  They took an absolute POUNDING, and I'm guessing their pride and their bodies are still wounded. 

- This is a huge game as at least one wild card is coming out of the NFC South, with an outside possibility of two from the division.  Tampa has San Diego and Oakland left at home, both extremely winnable games.  ATL has to travel to Minnesota next week which will most certainly be a playoff atmosphere.  In short, although it is huge for both teams, ATL has a stronger need in this game as they are one back of the Bucs. Not basing this as a huge factor in my play but thought I would at least mention it.

- The bottom line is I cannot support Tampa on the road unless they are playing cupcake east, or a team that simply cannot move the ball.  ATL is neither, and I think Turner has success on the ground, keeping the pressure off of Ryan against Kiffin's complex defensive schemes.  Too short of a week and a brutal back to back does not favor Tampa here.

BOL

Final Card:

Large Plays

Zona -3

Baltimore -1

Dallas -3

Average Plays

ATL -3

Denver +7.5

Jets/Dolphins 6 point teaser.

- Fewer plays than I usually have.  I'm a little nervous about having only one dog and mostly very short lines.

I tried and tried all week to talk myself into ugly dogs like Detroit, Oakland, KC, and Cincy.  I just could not come up with any really compelling reasons to back them, as well as the favs on the other side.  Too many points for Indy, Cant back Oakland vs Belichick, can't back Cincy as they are losing by over 10 ppg at home although Washington does not rout anybody.  I am staying away from SD/KC due to my horrible record picking SD games. 

BOL Everyone, going to need alot of booze tomorrow

With you on most Hans...love the write ups, you do a great job!

sounds like you should get a 2nd book

Miami baby!!!!  -6

what is a hook

sry c anwswer above what u think about parlaying san deigo -6 with green bay -2

2team parlay:   Jets -7
                       Dolphins -6.5