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*Week 15 Card: Plays and Write Ups**

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Posts: 102

insatiable

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 36878

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 11:39 AM ET #51

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tomMiEe

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1049

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 11:47 AM ET #52

im a big panthers fan and i sure did enjoy ass whooping performance last mnf. so... panthers laying over td?? as much as i love panthers, they will NOT cover that spread. panthers don't usually blowout any teams whether they are facing bottom 5 or winless teams. thats just panthers. i believe SD wins the game at kc and see denver playing to lock up their division. throwing away denvers running game, looks like it will be a lot of passing for denver. another fact is, denver is one of the 3 teams that panthers never defeat. laying a td spread against a team they never defeated??? i doubt that... i really hope they win but i know for sure it won't be a blowout win or more then a td. maybe a last minute drive by jake and kasay's field goal wins the game.

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tarheels2095

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 594

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 12:07 PM ET #53

the Giants are 11-2, the Eagles lost last week was probably due to the distraction of plexico, but the Gmen will actually play with a sense of urgency knowing that the Carolina panthers are not only breathing down there necks for the best record in the nfc, but they are next on the schedule.

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PasqualeF

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 87

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:10 PM ET #54

Hi Hans,

Any comments on AZ. at home. If Warner is on he could lite up that secondary. They will have to contain Adrian Peterson but Az.'s defense looked pretty good against the run. What are your thoughts

Pasquale

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kltrd007

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 4293

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:25 PM ET #55

Lots of knowledge BH. Keep up the good work and Gluck tonite

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warpigs07

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 36

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:26 PM ET #56

tomMiEe, Carolina 2008 home record 5-2 covering 7 or more points winning all 7 games.

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BigHans

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 601

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:31 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by PasqualeF:

Hi Hans,

Any comments on AZ. at home. If Warner is on he could lite up that secondary. They will have to contain Adrian Peterson but Az.'s defense looked pretty good against the run. What are your thoughts

Pasquale

I will be going big on Zona. How big will be determined by the outcome of the Bears game tonight.

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BigHans

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 601

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:41 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by tarheels2095:

the Giants are 11-2, the Eagles lost last week was probably due to the distraction of plexico, but the Gmen will actually play with a sense of urgency knowing that the Carolina panthers are not only breathing down there necks for the best record in the nfc, but they are next on the schedule.

It definetly wont be easy for Dallas TarHeels. I don't overlook the Giants at all. I'm just leaning on Dallas playing a complete game, something I usually fade them against thinking they wont. I have a different feeling this week.

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BigHans

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 601

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:43 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by CalledK3:

Good write ups ...Food for thought Hans -

The DAL write up you talk about defense (Dallas trouble with NYG blitz, Dallas emergence on the defensive side of the ball) and I will add that with NYG missing Plax that Dallas' defensive weakness (their secondary) is not as vunerable....they can slide an 8th man in the box occasionally to combat the Giants biggies

With MB III, Roy Williams and BJacobs all banged up - each offense is hamstrung a little bit....

Snot knocking divisional rematch with playoff intensity - makes UNDER 44.5 look very attrative to me ???

Not sure about that total. I think Dallas' offense shows up here, so under may be dangerous. It does seem a little low, but I won't be playing it, I have enough to worry about on the side bet

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BayAreaBaller

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 662

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 1:45 PM ET #60

Great insight on tonights game.
Go Bears and BOL Hans

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PasqualeF

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 87

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 8:04 PM ET #61

Thanks for your comments on the Az. question Hans. BOL. I like them.....

Pasquale

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ar182

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 9

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 8:24 PM ET #62

very nice writeups hans...

but doesn't the az/ minn line look funny ?

here we have a az team who is in 1st place in their division vs.a team that is starting a back-up qb...i would think the the line would be closer to 5 or 6 instead of 3...

my best bet for the week is on the jets...besides all of the buff injuries & the jets controlling both lines, buffalo is 2-20 ats after playing miami since 1997....

good luck & keep up the great capping...

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V2daTizzo

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 77

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 9:07 PM ET #63

very nice write ups

definitately leaning hard towards cowboys, ravens and broncos too

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seanbeaz

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 16

Posted: Dec. 11, 2008 - 9:24 PM ET #64

I love the Broncos play as well. good write up.

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BigHans

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 601

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 12:06 AM ET #65

Alright, the Bears won, which is what I wanted to happen here.

Playing

Zona -3 Over Minnesota (LARGE)

- Lets address the "trap" and other issues here and get them out of the way. Should this line be higher? Absolutely. Are people worried that the Cardinals are going to tank because they already won the division and that this is a must win for Minnesota? Yes. I think Minnesota is going to be touted as a "sharp" play the rest of the week. I'm here to say none of this matters to me, because of 5 little words:

Tarvaris Jackson on the Road.

- Not only Tarvaris Jackson on the road, but Tarvaris Jackson in a high pressure situation, on a LONG road trip, with the Vikings on back to back road tilts, against a team that has been home for quite a spell after the long Thanksgiving break.

- I was waiting for the Bears final to post, if the Bears would've lost I would've played this average instead of large. Alot of people are going to think my logic is backward, that this is now more of a must win for Minnesota. They are correct, it is now more of a must win, which means there is more pressure on T-Jack, which is a very good situation for Zona backers.

- I watch alot of Vikings games. All of them, actually. While I think Gus Frerrote is a joke of a starting quarterback, Tarvaris is on an entirely different level when it comes to playing smart quarterback; as in, he is the opposite of smart, or some might say, a moron. The kid is an athlete, he has a good arm, and above average mobility. He also has absolutely no clue how to read and adjust to an NFL defense on the fly. He has very little poise under pressure. I don't care what he did last week, they were facing Detroit and it is almost better to have to enter the game at halftime because it didn't give him a chance to get nervous and think about what is ahead. Tarvaris was benched after two games for a reason, despite Brad Childress naming him the Vikings "quarterback of the future" in preseason. He does not have the make-up. He doesn't have the tools to win games. He hands off to Peterson and the rest of Minnesota prays that he wont fuck the game up. Ladies and Gentleman, Tarvaris Jackson!

- Anyway, I should probably have some other reasons for making this play.

- The Vikings Defense is built entirely on stopping the run with the Williams wall, and having those two monsters occupy lineman so Allen can avoid as many double teams as possible. Their defense is built this way because their secondary is below average in speed and their ability to provide shut down coverage. They rely on a Cover 2 zone as the only one of them who has any man to man skills is Antoine Winfield, who plays more like a linebacker than anything. The Vikings are very successful against teams that rely on the run, as their game plans are shot and the secondary can sit back in a soft cover 2 as they know the other team has to throw, so they will give up the underneath stuff and pray Allen pressures the QB. This strategy is not going to work this Sunday.

- The good news for Cardinals backers is they rarely run the ball anyway. If Wisenhunt, a former OL coach, game plans effectively and keeps Allen from killing Warner, the Vikings will get absolutely routed in this game. Their defensive scheme and their personnel are absolutely no match for the Cardinal's playmakers, especially on the road. If Warner has time, IE if Allen is shut down because the Vikings don't have any other pass rushers, he will easily torch this Minnesota secondary.

- Being that the Cardinals play a fast paced game and score quickly and often, the Vikings game plan on offense to run, run, and pray their QB doesnt fuck up is not going to work. The Cardinals offense is going to put pressure on Jackson to win this game with a group of WR's that includes Sidney Rice, Bobby Wade, and Berrian (yes, he can be a threat). I am not forgetting about Peterson. The man defines the term STUD RB, but he is not going to win this game by himself like he can when they face teams with weaker offenses. Arizona is not known for defense but they are 10th overall in the league and give up less than 90 yards per game on the ground at home, so there is little possibility Peterson will control this game entirely. Once again, this means they will have to rely on Tarvaris in a pressure situation.

- I could go on for days about this but I think you get the point. The only thing that can stop the Cards in this situation is if they come out flat and simply don't give a shit about this game. I don't see it happening as they still can play for seeding, and they have strong veteran leadership in Warner, and Wisenhunt seems to have control of this team. Both Boldin and FItzgerald are class acts as well and neither will tank this game. The key is whether or not Zona can keep J Allen from killing Warner. If he is at least held in check Minnesota stands very little chance in this game.

BOL

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Alright, the Bears won, which is what I wanted to happen here.

Playing

Zona -3 Over Minnesota (LARGE)

- Lets address the "trap" and other issues here and get them out of the way. Should this line be higher? Absolutely. Are people worried that the Cardinals are going to tank because they already won the division and that this is a must win for Minnesota? Yes. I think Minnesota is going to be touted as a "sharp" play the rest of the week. I'm here to say none of this matters to me, because of 5 little words:

Tarvaris Jackson on the Road.

- Not only Tarvaris Jackson on the road, but Tarvaris Jackson in a high pressure situation, on a LONG road trip, with the Vikings on back to back road tilts, against a team that has been home for quite a spell after the long Thanksgiving break.

- I was waiting for the Bears final to post, if the Bears would've lost I would've played this average instead of large. Alot of people are going to think my logic is backward, that this is now more of a must win for Minnesota. They are correct, it is now more of a must win, which means there is more pressure on T-Jack, which is a very good situation for Zona backers.

- I watch alot of Vikings games. All of them, actually. While I think Gus Frerrote is a joke of a starting quarterback, Tarvaris is on an entirely different level when it comes to playing smart quarterback; as in, he is the opposite of smart, or some might say, a moron. The kid is an athlete, he has a good arm, and above average mobility. He also has absolutely no clue how to read and adjust to an NFL defense on the fly. He has very little poise under pressure. I don't care what he did last week, they were facing Detroit and it is almost better to have to enter the game at halftime because it didn't give him a chance to get nervous and think about what is ahead. Tarvaris was benched after two games for a reason, despite Brad Childress naming him the Vikings "quarterback of the future" in preseason. He does not have the make-up. He doesn't have the tools to win games. He hands off to Peterson and the rest of Minnesota prays that he wont fuck the game up. Ladies and Gentleman, Tarvaris Jackson!

- Anyway, I should probably have some other reasons for making this play.

- The Vikings Defense is built entirely on stopping the run with the Williams wall, and having those two monsters occupy lineman so Allen can avoid as many double teams as possible. Their defense is built this way because their secondary is below average in speed and their ability to provide shut down coverage. They rely on a Cover 2 zone as the only one of them who has any man to man skills is Antoine Winfield, who plays more like a linebacker than anything. The Vikings are very successful against teams that rely on the run, as their game plans are shot and the secondary can sit back in a soft cover 2 as they know the other team has to throw, so they will give up the underneath stuff and pray Allen pressures the QB. This strategy is not going to work this Sunday.

- The good news for Cardinals backers is they rarely run the ball anyway. If Wisenhunt, a former OL coach, game plans effectively and keeps Allen from killing Warner, the Vikings will get absolutely routed in this game. Their defensive scheme and their personnel are absolutely no match for the Cardinal's playmakers, especially on the road. If Warner has time, IE if Allen is shut down because the Vikings don't have any other pass rushers, he will easily torch this Minnesota secondary.

- Being that the Cardinals play a fast paced game and score quickly and often, the Vikings game plan on offense to run, run, and pray their QB doesnt fuck up is not going to work. The Cardinals offense is going to put pressure on Jackson to win this game with a group of WR's that includes Sidney Rice, Bobby Wade, and Berrian (yes, he can be a threat). I am not forgetting about Peterson. The man defines the term STUD RB, but he is not going to win this game by himself like he can when they face teams with weaker offenses. Arizona is not known for defense but they are 10th overall in the league and give up less than 90 yards per game on the ground at home, so there is little possibility Peterson will control this game entirely. Once again, this means they will have to rely on Tarvaris in a pressure situation.

- I could go on for days about this but I think you get the point. The only thing that can stop the Cards in this situation is if they come out flat and simply don't give a shit about this game. I don't see it happening as they still can play for seeding, and they have strong veteran leadership in Warner, and Wisenhunt seems to have control of this team. Both Boldin and FItzgerald are class acts as well and neither will tank this game. The key is whether or not Zona can keep J Allen from killing Warner. If he is at least held in check Minnesota stands very little chance in this game.

BOL

PasqualeF

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 87

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 12:23 AM ET #66

Great writeups and I saw this one (Az.) as a sleeper pick, with good value. Thanks again Im hitting it big as well.

Pasquale

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estes1717

Hall of Fame

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 27386

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 12:40 AM ET #67

Question Big ? Dallas has alot of drama going on with t.o. seems to be a big distraction for the team. With that said do you still like Dallas Large?

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BigHans

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 601

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 1:00 AM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by estes1717:

Question Big ? Dallas has alot of drama going on with t.o. seems to be a big distraction for the team. With that said do you still like Dallas Large?

I think there is drama with TO every single day, and has been. The guy is like an ex wife, always throwing a fit and pissed about something. He's a first class drama queen. I don't think this is any different for Dallas in how they go about this game.

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estes1717

Hall of Fame

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 27386

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 1:05 AM ET #69

lol

Im with ya on Dallas. Like the plays. GL Big

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jmmychampion

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 79

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 3:01 AM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:

Homework just getting started, leans for now:

Leans:

ATL -3 Over Tampa:

Not an over-reaction to MNF. More of a reaction and a trend that Tampa is less than stellar on the road while ATL has been strong at home. Tampa is beat up after getting destroyed to the tune of 300 yards on the ground. They could be pissed and will probably play tougher, which is why still a lean. Revenge and even-ing out divisional spot for ATL.

Oakland +7 Over NE

Not sure if I can play this ugly mutt or not. If I pull the trigger it will be a fade of NE's travel schedule (two west coast trips in a week), and their defense being banged up. Oakland is statistically very strong vs the pass but gets obliterated on the ground which takes some of the salt out of their passing ypg allowed stat. Not sure if I can back this Oakland team vs Belichick or not, but the situation strongly favors the Raiders

Denver +7.5 Over Carolina

Will probably be a play. Classic sandwhich spot for Panthers coming off a huge MN victory, with the Giants on deck. I'm not sure I trust Delhomme in a sandwhich spot, and Denver has actually been very strong on the road. I think Carolina's huge win on a national stage is shading this line at a minimum of a point and a half.

Arizona Over Minnesota (Hey Vegas, give us a fucking line already)

- Unless this line is ridiculous I will be hammering Zona here. Frerrote is banged up, which explains the line not being released (unless I am really missing something here). T-Jack on a cross country road trip is huge fade material. The Vikings secondary will get torched by this offense. Anything under 7 and I will probably unload.

Jets -7 Over Buffalo

Absolute must have for the Jets and they are due for a bounce back after two atrocious losses. Favre vs Losman, Jets or no play.

Miami -6.5 Over San Fran

Really love the situation but I am hesitating as Miami failed to cover two bad body clock games vs Oakland and Seattle, and San Fran has the one and only bad body clock win over Buffalo. The Fish are not a blowout team but I think they give a strong showing here, while Hill is more than due to come down to earth. Leaning Miami but haven't triggered yet.

More later on this week, thoughts welcomed and appreciated.

i like the niners here have been impressed miami but like the energy level the niners are playing with. almost a totally diffrent team with singaltery as head coatch there playing with swagger . but let me say in growing up here in cally ive always had 2 team that were my favarites being the seahawks and then who ever was playing the niners

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Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:

Homework just getting started, leans for now:

Leans:

ATL -3 Over Tampa:

Not an over-reaction to MNF. More of a reaction and a trend that Tampa is less than stellar on the road while ATL has been strong at home. Tampa is beat up after getting destroyed to the tune of 300 yards on the ground. They could be pissed and will probably play tougher, which is why still a lean. Revenge and even-ing out divisional spot for ATL.

Oakland +7 Over NE

Not sure if I can play this ugly mutt or not. If I pull the trigger it will be a fade of NE's travel schedule (two west coast trips in a week), and their defense being banged up. Oakland is statistically very strong vs the pass but gets obliterated on the ground which takes some of the salt out of their passing ypg allowed stat. Not sure if I can back this Oakland team vs Belichick or not, but the situation strongly favors the Raiders

Denver +7.5 Over Carolina

Will probably be a play. Classic sandwhich spot for Panthers coming off a huge MN victory, with the Giants on deck. I'm not sure I trust Delhomme in a sandwhich spot, and Denver has actually been very strong on the road. I think Carolina's huge win on a national stage is shading this line at a minimum of a point and a half.

Arizona Over Minnesota (Hey Vegas, give us a fucking line already)

- Unless this line is ridiculous I will be hammering Zona here. Frerrote is banged up, which explains the line not being released (unless I am really missing something here). T-Jack on a cross country road trip is huge fade material. The Vikings secondary will get torched by this offense. Anything under 7 and I will probably unload.

Jets -7 Over Buffalo

Absolute must have for the Jets and they are due for a bounce back after two atrocious losses. Favre vs Losman, Jets or no play.

Miami -6.5 Over San Fran

Really love the situation but I am hesitating as Miami failed to cover two bad body clock games vs Oakland and Seattle, and San Fran has the one and only bad body clock win over Buffalo. The Fish are not a blowout team but I think they give a strong showing here, while Hill is more than due to come down to earth. Leaning Miami but haven't triggered yet.

More later on this week, thoughts welcomed and appreciated.

i like the niners here have been impressed miami but like the energy level the niners are playing with. almost a totally diffrent team with singaltery as head coatch there playing with swagger . but let me say in growing up here in cally ive always had 2 team that were my favarites being the seahawks and then who ever was playing the niners

BigHans

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 601

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 5:14 PM ET #71

Updated Card:

Bears -3 PUSH

Dallas -2.5 (Large, Hook)

Baltimore -1 (Large)

Zona -3 (Large)

Denver +7.5

Miami .5/Jets -1.5 (6 point teaser) (No Write Up, Its a Teaser)

Looking at a few more.

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youramoron

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 459

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 5:40 PM ET #72

Nice job as always!!!

GL on Sunday I'm on Zona heavy as well...

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DWill1986

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 53

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 5:46 PM ET #73

Why isn't TEN everyones strongest play this week...Are they sitting their starters?? Will a "true expert" tell me why i shouldnt put my house on ten this week

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ILLZ

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 185

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 6:15 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by DWill1986:

Why isn't TEN everyones strongest play this week...Are they sitting their starters?? Will a "true expert" tell me why i shouldnt put my house on ten this week

I actually like Houston here... they play very well at home and have loads of confidence following last week. Vanden Bosch is out again for Tennessee and Houston will get up as high as they can for this one. I'll take the points.

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luckyly

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 3214

Posted: Dec. 12, 2008 - 6:33 PM ET #75

very very nice card...we match up well...

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***Week 15 Card: Plays and Write Ups****

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*Week 15 Card: Plays and Write Ups**