Posted:
#26
Might as well get this one out of the way. Not going to start a new thread on this one because I don't feel it warrants a large play. Anyone wants to bet big be my guest but I am going small on this one as I believe Chicago has the advantage but I will not lay huge money on Orton vs Brees
Playing Chicago -3 (Small)
Slightly different approach on this one.
Advantages for Chicago:
- The weather is going to be cold and the Saints are a soft dome team. Look I like the Saints and I will take them almost every time in a shoot out scenario but a dome team playin on the road in the cold in primetime is not a good scenario, although some on this board are trying to say it doesn't matter. I beleive it does.
- Chicago is built for this type of weather, and this type of game, as it is practically a playoff game as the loser is done. Chicago is built on smashing the ball, stuffing the run, and forcing turnovers, all things good playoff teams do well. NO is built exclusively on an aerial attack and plays soft on defense, not something a playoff team usually succeeds at (yes I know there are exceptions).
- The Saints are weak agains the run on the road, and while Chicago does not have eye popping rushing stats I think Forte has success tomorrow. Lovie's game plan will almost certianly be to take the ball out of Ortons hands, and smash the ball keeping Brees off the field. Orton does well when the run is set up and he is not playing from behind. In other scenarios, not so much. I would be shocked if this isnt the Bears game plan, as their receivers are pretty much garbage, although NO does have a terrible secondary.
- The Saints have little chance of running the ball, which means as usual this will be up to Brees, who I understand is fully capable of winning this game almost by himself. One thing to keep in mind however is Brees has performed at a lower level on the road, and Chicago is tied for 2nd in the league with 19 interceptions. Chicago also has 5 defensive TDs this year. In a game where Brees will be throwing often there is a high probability he will turn it over at least once, if not twice, and if the Bears have success on the ground it will be game over.
Factors in the Saints Favor:
- I see very few advantages, but the one they do have is large enough to scare me into making this a small play. Brees vs Orton is not even close. I already explained how Brees could struggle slightly but lets face it he will never be fully contained, and even though the Bears have an extremely opprotunistic defense and stop the run well they give up 280 yards a game through the air in Solider. If Brees doesn't turn the ball over the Saints will win, as they should be able to at least move the chains against the Bears defense.
- Special Teams- I actually think this is even, as both Hester and Bush are elite return men. Bush has shown these Bears up before on this very field and very well could break one, which I believe would break the Bears back.
- If NO jumps out early Chicago is in big trouble. The Bears are awful playing from behind, and NO knows it. Expect the first quarter to be hugely impactful on the outcome.
- I think NO has a small coaching advantage. Peyton has made some stupid mistakes with his cute reverse plays, but overall he is a better game planner than Lovie. Small Advantage for the Saints
Bottom Line:
- I fear Brees, but the weather, Chicago in primetime, the Saints history on the road, and Chicago's tendency to get cheap points off of turnovers is enough to sway me on this game. I wouldnt advise anyone to bet large but am reasonably confident the other factors are enough to overcome the major Orton vs Brees mismatch.
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