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WEEK 13

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Posted: #76
Situational spots aren't automatic plays on a certain team. They have to be put into perspective of the whole game. A Football game isn't just won by talent discrepancy or certain matchups. It's also won in the heads of the players. Preparation and focus plays a big role in sports.

Regarding the sandwich spot of KC:

Road teams in general:

2903-4023 (41.9%), scoring margin 19.8 - 22.6 (-2.8)

Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing vs. an interconference opponent:

94-146 SU (39.2%), scoring margin 19.1 - 23.5 (-4.3)


Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing an interconference team lose by 1.5 PPG more than standard road teams.




 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

A team off an away underdog overtime win, now an away  non-divisional dog with a division game up next have been 6-1 ATS

1996  Oilers    +1    Falcons     23-13   *
2002  Broncos +3   Patriots      24-16   *
2003  Patriots  +4   Colts          38-34
2006  Giants   +4    Seahawks 30-42    *
2007  Packers +1   Chiefs        33-22
2010  Lions     +3-  Dolphins     34-27
2011  Lions     +2    Cowboys   34-30    *

*  Previous away overtime win was versus a divisional rival.....a sandwich game.


Were both division rivals in contention to win the division ? 

We do not know that with this info, completely different situations to what KC is FACING.

If the team is facing easy division opp then the incentive to bring your biggest, best game is not there.

Look at last weeks Pats/Jets game, who do you suppose brought their biggest game ? 

Certainly was not the Pats who got out=played by lowly Jets, the team needs to be facing a tough division opp with division title hopes and that would not be the Jets, how many of those teams in this sample would be similar to Jets ?

We do not know that.

Your trying hard to disprove something with very bad info.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


So these sandwich games, please preach on.

Does it just have to be the coach?
Do all 46 players fall victim to this curse?
Or only a simple majority of 24 players?
Does it matter which of the 24 players fall victim?  What if only the backup players are looking ahead?

What is the exact definition of a sandwich game?

What is the ATS history tell us of sandwich games?

If you can't accurately define it nor can you back it up with historical stats, I'm sorry, it's hogwash.
6 questions from one very inexpérienced NFL mind frame, if you trully don't comprehend the terminology attached to ´sandwich gamé then go back to handicapping 101 and do some research, farthest concept to Your commentry on regards to ´´hogwash'´ imaginable.........







 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by richwins81:

I read a stat line how bad kc is when opponent scores 22+. Atlanta is going to put up 30+. This Feels like it will get UGLY fast for KC. I haven't played a bet in awhile but may put 5K on Atlanta 


Since 2013: SU: 4-16-0 ATS: 6-13-1
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by richwins81:

Suuma - will be in Vegas shortly (from LA). Thinking of putting 5K on Atlanta. Do you think -5.5 is ok?  Would feel better with 4 obviously. 


Cannot respond to that. Is your bankroll 100K?
 
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Posted: #81


GOOD STUFF, HEFF!!!

BOL

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Situational spots aren't automatic plays on a certain team. They have to be put into perspective of the whole game. A Football game isn't just won by talent discrepancy or certain matchups. It's also won in the heads of the players. Preparation and focus plays a big role in sports.

Regarding the sandwich spot of KC:

Road teams in general:

2903-4023 (41.9%), scoring margin 19.8 - 22.6 (-2.8)

Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing vs. an interconference opponent:

94-146 SU (39.2%), scoring margin 19.1 - 23.5 (-4.3)


Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing an interconference team lose by 1.5 PPG more than standard road teams.





solid info.apprrciate your effort 
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Situational spots aren't automatic plays on a certain team. They have to be put into perspective of the whole game. A Football game isn't just won by talent discrepancy or certain matchups. It's also won in the heads of the players. Preparation and focus plays a big role in sports.

Regarding the sandwich spot of KC:

Road teams in general:

2903-4023 (41.9%), scoring margin 19.8 - 22.6 (-2.8)

Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing vs. an interconference opponent:

94-146 SU (39.2%), scoring margin 19.1 - 23.5 (-4.4)


Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing an interconference team lose by 1.6 PPG more than standard road teams.




 
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Posted: #84

I just don't buy that JAX pick. 

I have Denver in my survivor pool.... A team like Denver and that "D"

should get the job done.  The UNDER in this one should be a good

play!!! 

 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

I just don't buy that JAX pick. 

I have Denver in my survivor pool.... A team like Denver and that "D"

should get the job done.  The UNDER in this one should be a good

play!!! 



You don't have to, Deac!

Traveling to the east coast for an early game off a five-quarter SNF performance with a rookie backup QB - give me the home team with a decent D getting 4.5 points. It might be a rare game in which Blake Bortles doesn't turn out as the worse QB. If they play it simple & safe and try to win this game via defense, they are going to win SU.

BOL Deac!
 
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Posted: #86

Hey Suuma, good to see you. Would you please share your thoughts on Baltimore/Miami? The line is Baltimore -3.5. Thank you..

 

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by kodiak:

Hey Suuma, good to see you. Would you please share your thoughts on Baltimore/Miami? The line is Baltimore -3.5. Thank you..

 



On the move, just real quick: Would lean Balty at -3, because their front seven is a great matchup against Miami who are without DeVante Parker who can create athletic mismatches. Miami D is still no wall, the Ravens can put up enough points to win and cover. Seeing a 24-20 / 24-17 type of game. No play for me.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Situational spots aren't automatic plays on a certain team. They have to be put into perspective of the whole game. A Football game isn't just won by talent discrepancy or certain matchups. It's also won in the heads of the players. Preparation and focus plays a big role in sports.

Regarding the sandwich spot of KC:

Road teams in general:

2903-4023 (41.9%), scoring margin 19.8 - 22.6 (-2.8)

Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing vs. an interconference opponent:

94-146 SU (39.2%), scoring margin 19.1 - 23.5 (-4.3)


Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing an interconference team lose by 1.5 PPG more than standard road teams.




 
Suuma, the problem u have is that there is,way way too small a,sample of sandwich games,to say that difference is,anything but chance!! Even the overall difference is insignificant statistically.
 
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Posted: #89
Suuma,, you have some nerve coming on this site and making picks you think are intelligent and have a chance of winning. What gives you the right. These people know better than you. They are professional gamblers with years of experience and you are forcing them to follow you. Stop it now.
 
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Posted: #90
 
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Posted: #91
Suuma, You do a great job man and appreciate your picks. 

Was wondering why you thought the Steelers line is so high ? Seems like a total trap to me, and am leaning towards taking Pitt...any thoughts would be appreciated. GL this week 
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by RCDirect:

Suuma,, you have some nerve coming on this site and making picks you think are intelligent and have a chance of winning. What gives you the right. These people know better than you. They are professional gamblers with years of experience and you are forcing them to follow you. Stop it now.

In another word, Bernie wants you to distribute your winnings.
 
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Posted: #93
I really like the Falcons pick, Suuma.

I'll be on them as well. GL 
 
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Posted: #94
jaxis very hard to pull the trigger i want to do ml but i cant do it. these are usually the ones that hit 
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

 
Suuma, the problem u have is that there is,way way too small a,sample of sandwich games,to say that difference is,anything but chance!! Even the overall difference is insignificant statistically.


I am done talking about that. If people think teams bring the exact same effort each week - they live in a dreamland and I have no problem keeping them there.
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by WinstonTheWolf:

Suuma, You do a great job man and appreciate your picks. 

Was wondering why you thought the Steelers line is so high ? Seems like a total trap to me, and am leaning towards taking Pitt...any thoughts would be appreciated. GL this week 


Steelers haven't shown me enough to make them -3 favs over the Giants. Personally I am looking at Giants & Over.
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by RCDirect:

Suuma,, you have some nerve coming on this site and making picks you think are intelligent and have a chance of winning. What gives you the right. These people know better than you. They are professional gamblers with years of experience and you are forcing them to follow you. Stop it now.



 
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Posted: #98
 
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Posted: #99
Big Week Coming Brother Suuma.  Love it when our thoughts are aligned!  
 
 
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