WEEK 13

16' YTD 59-43 (57.8%) +14.81u
Avg unit size: 1.11u
RoR: +13.5%
L2 seasons: 153-109 (58.4%) +37.75u


Vikes +3.5 -115

Can Cowboys win by 4+? Absolutely. Can the Vikes keep it close? Absolutely. People don't wanna jump in front of the Cowboys train and that's fine. Cowboys bettors would take this line up to -7 and I am hearing "vegas early christmas gift". For me, it's a simple line value play. At the end of the day, when we lock in our bets, we lock in lines, not teams. The HFA the Vikes get by oddsmakers ranges from 3.5 to 4 points. So this line says the Cowboys are -7 or -7.5 on a neutral field to the Vikings. This line is off in my opinion. Real good home field advantage, prime time, good defense, good special teams - give me +3.5 with the home team in a game that doesn't scream blowout to me. Munnerlyn & Diggs come back which is important for the Vikes. Especially the presence of Diggs is important for the Vikes offense, we will see a better offensive efficiency than last week. Good luck with the Boys, I am taking my chances with the Vikes. P.S. when I locked in my bet, there wasn't any news about Zimmer. But interesting that I am hearing Vikes fans having no real problem with his absence.


Falcons -4 +100 (2u)

Situational spot of the year. The Chiefs just played an emotional full five quarters on SNF at Denver and won an overtime thriller. You know the trend - road teams who played five full quarters (off a tie) are 0-9 SUATS, losing by 16.7 PPG. It's not just a letdown spot, they also have a TNF game vs. Oakland on deck. I don't see them being 100% focused this week. Remember what happened to the last two 'five-quarter-teams' Cardinals and Seahawks, they came out very flat and didn't cover their spreads. Hawks benefited from an early fumble six, otherwise it would have been an easy day for the Saints. Also, the Falcons have been at home the last three weeks. From a matchup standpoint, the Falcons have exactly what it takes to cover a spread vs the Chiefs - a good OL and a phenomenal passing game. Go into a shootout with Alex Smith and Andy Reid and it's gonna be tough for them to keep the pace. Justin Houston & Dee Ford aren't 100%, Marcus Peters is playing on one leg - Falcons should be able to move the ball with ease. What's also intersting, is the pythagorean and FO estimated win differential. Falcons have a +1 pythagorean and a +2.9 estimated value advantage. Seeing a 37-17 type of game. Sold the line to -4 to get an extra 10% on the line. 3.1% of 3.5s have landed on 4.


Jaguars +4.5 -110

Same five-quarters spot for the Broncos who are traveling East to play an early road game against the lowly Jaguars. Trevor Siemian is in a walking boot, so he is either not 100% or Paxton Lynch will get his second career start. Either one smells disaster to me against a somewhat decent defense. It was pretty exciting what the Jaguars have done against the Bills despite conceding 28 points, but the Broncos don't have the kind of big play potential the Bills have with McCoy, Taylor and Watkins. I know that we are talking about a guy who can't play the QB position on the other side, but 4.5 points are still too many in this spot IMO. Could be an ugly close game and if Paxton plays, I can see Jags winning SU.


Colts pk -110

The Jets aren't a good Football team, don't let the result vs. NE fool you. Jets have no secondary and no edge rush, Colts gonna move the ball on MNF and should really win this one. Jets offense wouldn't win a shootout vs. Luck.


More coming.


BOL!

Thanks for the insights, as always.

 I'll be on the Vikings tonight. I'm hoping to get them at +3.5 -110.

BOL

I don't see anything on M Sherels. He is the special teams threat. If he is back I would lean hard on Minny. This changes big on field position on how Cowboys play it

BOL this week.

Money split is even higher.

GL suuma

Man people may want to jump on that Dallas train but I've been stuck on the vikes train. That thanksgiving loss made me want to kick the door open and jump out. Went to take a sh!t and I come back to a loss. Wtf lol.

BTW suuma does zimmer being out change the team in anyway to you? 

It would concern me if they were playing on the road on a short week. But at home giving 3.5 with 6 days to prepare, it's nothing I really worry about. When Kubiak was out, Denver were traveling on a short week and laying 3.5 to San Diego.

Maybe we say "the loss of Zimmer hurt the team", maybe not.

Summa - curious as to what you think about how much the loss of Berger may hurt Minny tonight. Thanks

What happened to Zimmer ?

Might sound weird, but I think the return of Diggs somehow negates the absence of Berger. Bradford can't think about one certain position when playing behind this line.

Emergency eye surgery

Thanks for the reply suuma 

Love the picks Suuuma, with you in all of them

Love the Falcons angle.  GL 

Thanks as always for the insight Summa.  GLUCK! 

Suuma!    

In Suuma we trust

Lucky cover in the end, but we saw why the line was off. Average offense and special teams, game wouldn't have been close. Cowboys had one full scoring drive which was almost dead before Daks scramble.

KC/ATL - I never understood the whole "they play a rival team next week" angle..  So a team is willing to lose a game and drop 1 behind in the loss column because they're playing a division game of rival the following week? Defeats the whole purpose of trying to gain ground..  

Any advice on Raiders game??

GL buddy!!