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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    VIKINGS @ EAGLES - NFC CHAMPIONSHIP CAP: Are the Eagles going to let Case FREAKIN' Keenum beat them?

    123456 Next Last»
    scalabrine
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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 10:47 PM ET #1

    2018 Record: None

    7 BIG reasons to bet the VIKINGS

    Now that Suuma has given you all the quantifiable metrics to assist you in your cap of the NFC Championship game, I will give you the unquantifiable (that is, what I believe is not in the line but still has an impact on the outcome, and the psychology of the players on the field, to give the capper an edge). 

    1. "Are the Eagles going to let Case Freakin' Keenum keep them from Super Bowl 52??"

    That was the title that blared from NJ.com, which is the site for NJ's most prominent newspaper, The Star Ledger. Now what does NJ have to do with Philly?

    South and Central NJ is not primarily Giant or Jet country, it's Philly country. The more South you go, the more Eagles fans you see. And was it ever Eagles-land this year as all the fair-weather Jets and Giants fans jumped off their bandwagon and darted for the comfy confines of Eagle's fandom. So the article source still makes sense.

    You never want to give bulletin board material to a motivated team, or an underrated player like Keenum. 

    Well a reporter showed this headline:

    https://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2018/01/
     eagles_minnesota_vikings_predictions_thoughts_nick.html


    ... directly to Keenum as did he showed it to the other Eagles players (not like it wouldn't have been seen anyway in the social media era).

    After a raised eyebrow moment (perhaps the word "Freakin'" was the kicker), Keenum casually blew it off, having been tossed in the scrap heap so many times after an 0-8 season with Houston in 2013, just like that newspaper would be by the end of the day.

    What this headline does, from a macro-perspective is take the dog mask off the Chris Long's head and makes Keenum the proverbial underdog of sorts.

    So while the Eagles are still the dog with the Vegas line, the Vikes QB, maligned in this article, derided in many other places as well, is now the dog who can bring the Vikings to the Super Bowl.

    2. The 'Dog' Mentality 

    Segueing off #1 (from an angle one I posted last week that the Eagles were well aware of and were motivated from), the Eagles now have a tough task playing the Underdog role up TWICE in TWO weeks no less.

    Would Knute Rockne's "Win one for the Gipper" speech to his Notre Dame players in 1928 to spur them to a win over Army work....if he used it again the following week against Navy let's say?

    No. Once that card is dealt, it's very tough to play the same hand with that card again. While it still exists, and while the Eagles are the only home dog in the NFC Championship ever, it is a tough sell this week against the Keenum-lead Vikes when they threw the kitchen sink at the Falcons to win in a nail biter.

    So you get a severe watering down of a very powerful psychological factor for the Eagles that is quite useful for capping.

    3. The Weather 

    Dome teams coming outside on grass usually is not good news ATS for the away team. 

    But in this case, the Eagles advantage gets watered down through the fact you could literally go outside without a jacket today. I was near Philly today and I can tell you I didn't have a jacket on, just a thermal shirt and I felt comfortable. A little chilly but comfortable. Chilly is like beach-weather for the Vikings and Eagles (and remember the Vikings were an outdoor team not long ago).

    Tomorrow has a high of 50 dropping to 41 at night. I look for kick-off to be around 43 degrees. To travel to Philly and get that weather on a January 21st? That's a blessing that's not in disguise, but has suntan lotion on it's nose like a shirtless David Hasselhoff! I'm not crazy about the Vikes playing on grass but ya can't have it all, so I will take what are almost balmy like conditions for a January day.


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    2018 Record: None

    7 BIG reasons to bet the VIKINGS

    Now that Suuma has given you all the quantifiable metrics to assist you in your cap of the NFC Championship game, I will give you the unquantifiable (that is, what I believe is not in the line but still has an impact on the outcome, and the psychology of the players on the field, to give the capper an edge). 

    1. "Are the Eagles going to let Case Freakin' Keenum keep them from Super Bowl 52??"

    That was the title that blared from NJ.com, which is the site for NJ's most prominent newspaper, The Star Ledger. Now what does NJ have to do with Philly?

    South and Central NJ is not primarily Giant or Jet country, it's Philly country. The more South you go, the more Eagles fans you see. And was it ever Eagles-land this year as all the fair-weather Jets and Giants fans jumped off their bandwagon and darted for the comfy confines of Eagle's fandom. So the article source still makes sense.

    You never want to give bulletin board material to a motivated team, or an underrated player like Keenum. 

    Well a reporter showed this headline:

    https://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2018/01/
     eagles_minnesota_vikings_predictions_thoughts_nick.html


    ... directly to Keenum as did he showed it to the other Eagles players (not like it wouldn't have been seen anyway in the social media era).

    After a raised eyebrow moment (perhaps the word "Freakin'" was the kicker), Keenum casually blew it off, having been tossed in the scrap heap so many times after an 0-8 season with Houston in 2013, just like that newspaper would be by the end of the day.

    What this headline does, from a macro-perspective is take the dog mask off the Chris Long's head and makes Keenum the proverbial underdog of sorts.

    So while the Eagles are still the dog with the Vegas line, the Vikes QB, maligned in this article, derided in many other places as well, is now the dog who can bring the Vikings to the Super Bowl.

    2. The 'Dog' Mentality 

    Segueing off #1 (from an angle one I posted last week that the Eagles were well aware of and were motivated from), the Eagles now have a tough task playing the Underdog role up TWICE in TWO weeks no less.

    Would Knute Rockne's "Win one for the Gipper" speech to his Notre Dame players in 1928 to spur them to a win over Army work....if he used it again the following week against Navy let's say?

    No. Once that card is dealt, it's very tough to play the same hand with that card again. While it still exists, and while the Eagles are the only home dog in the NFC Championship ever, it is a tough sell this week against the Keenum-lead Vikes when they threw the kitchen sink at the Falcons to win in a nail biter.

    So you get a severe watering down of a very powerful psychological factor for the Eagles that is quite useful for capping.

    3. The Weather 

    Dome teams coming outside on grass usually is not good news ATS for the away team. 

    But in this case, the Eagles advantage gets watered down through the fact you could literally go outside without a jacket today. I was near Philly today and I can tell you I didn't have a jacket on, just a thermal shirt and I felt comfortable. A little chilly but comfortable. Chilly is like beach-weather for the Vikings and Eagles (and remember the Vikings were an outdoor team not long ago).

    Tomorrow has a high of 50 dropping to 41 at night. I look for kick-off to be around 43 degrees. To travel to Philly and get that weather on a January 21st? That's a blessing that's not in disguise, but has suntan lotion on it's nose like a shirtless David Hasselhoff! I'm not crazy about the Vikes playing on grass but ya can't have it all, so I will take what are almost balmy like conditions for a January day.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 10:49 PM ET #2

    4. 17-0 Vikings to a game turned on it's head to the ultimate late heroics

    What was the key under the radar turning point in this game which lead to the miracle finish?

    For 43 minutes, the Vikes defense shut the Saints out. 

    As SOON as Safety Andrew Sendejo went out with a concussion, linebackers were then flexed to cover receivers on certain 4/5 wide plays. Drew Brees exploited this (naturally).

    On top of this you had the short fields with the blocked punt and INT to exacerbate it.

    Sendejo is currently questionable but was a full participant on Friday. He'll be back for my money. That matters. Having him back is a big boost particularly when you have an ultra-downgrade at QB from Brees to Foles.

    So for everything the Vikings D wasn't late, it WAS for almost 3/4's of the game. And the rest is explained above in part. Losing a key cog like Sendejo matters. He'll almost certainly be on the field in the biggest game of his life tomorrow.

    5. Foles

    Something HAS to be said about Foles here. The most concise and impactful explanation I found was from Peter King's MMQB. If you bet on the Eagles, this is what you will have to contend with:

    Foles has a strong enough arm and can throw with velocity at intermediate levels if he has a clean platform to throw. If you muddy Fole's pocket and prevent him from stepping into throws, his arm strength vanishes. Long throws MUST be accompanied by wide open receivers as the ball flails at the end of the throw.

    Foles is a very specific QB with very specific limitations which ultimately has made him a high-level backup. As a respectable time and rhythm player, his success is dictated by his level of comfort, and that level of comfort is determined by his surrounding circumstances. With a very solid O-Line, a dependable RB core, and good (but not great) receivers, those circumstances lead to success against the Falcons. 

    My words: But as you go up the NFC's hierarchical ladder, those surrounding circumstances are put under more pressure, hence the QB is pressured more. And Foles at is worst is under pressure.

    Vikings coach Mike Zimmer will center his gameplan around making Foles play off-schedule, where rhythm and clarity can't be found. For some coaches that means blitzing; pressure the QB and make him throw before he is ready. But on Sunday, this would only play into Philly's hand, as Pederson will continue to give Foles quick and precisely defined reads. 

    So Zimmer's approach will be to show blitz and then drop into coverage - Something the Viking do better than anyone in the league. 


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    4. 17-0 Vikings to a game turned on it's head to the ultimate late heroics

    What was the key under the radar turning point in this game which lead to the miracle finish?

    For 43 minutes, the Vikes defense shut the Saints out. 

    As SOON as Safety Andrew Sendejo went out with a concussion, linebackers were then flexed to cover receivers on certain 4/5 wide plays. Drew Brees exploited this (naturally).

    On top of this you had the short fields with the blocked punt and INT to exacerbate it.

    Sendejo is currently questionable but was a full participant on Friday. He'll be back for my money. That matters. Having him back is a big boost particularly when you have an ultra-downgrade at QB from Brees to Foles.

    So for everything the Vikings D wasn't late, it WAS for almost 3/4's of the game. And the rest is explained above in part. Losing a key cog like Sendejo matters. He'll almost certainly be on the field in the biggest game of his life tomorrow.

    5. Foles

    Something HAS to be said about Foles here. The most concise and impactful explanation I found was from Peter King's MMQB. If you bet on the Eagles, this is what you will have to contend with:

    Foles has a strong enough arm and can throw with velocity at intermediate levels if he has a clean platform to throw. If you muddy Fole's pocket and prevent him from stepping into throws, his arm strength vanishes. Long throws MUST be accompanied by wide open receivers as the ball flails at the end of the throw.

    Foles is a very specific QB with very specific limitations which ultimately has made him a high-level backup. As a respectable time and rhythm player, his success is dictated by his level of comfort, and that level of comfort is determined by his surrounding circumstances. With a very solid O-Line, a dependable RB core, and good (but not great) receivers, those circumstances lead to success against the Falcons. 

    My words: But as you go up the NFC's hierarchical ladder, those surrounding circumstances are put under more pressure, hence the QB is pressured more. And Foles at is worst is under pressure.

    Vikings coach Mike Zimmer will center his gameplan around making Foles play off-schedule, where rhythm and clarity can't be found. For some coaches that means blitzing; pressure the QB and make him throw before he is ready. But on Sunday, this would only play into Philly's hand, as Pederson will continue to give Foles quick and precisely defined reads. 

    So Zimmer's approach will be to show blitz and then drop into coverage - Something the Viking do better than anyone in the league. 


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 10:50 PM ET #3

    6. House Money

    T6Rider brought this up last week. The Vikes, after their historic last second miracle, are playing with house money. And moreover they are something the Music City Miracle Titans (who went to the big game and came up 1 yard short after their own comparable miracle) weren't: They are a better team. So you have a double whammy against Philly with a team playing with house money + talent up against them.

    And last but not least, and you can dismiss it all you want (and 90% will) but every person from South and Central Jersey and Philly knows this...

    7. The Eagles never get the job done in the Playoffs!

    Whether it was the decade+ of Andy Reid led Eagles who always faltered in the playoffs (they even lost to the Bucs in 2002 in under 40 degree weather, a temperature the Bucs had NEVER won in), the Eagles always hit a stumbling block.

    Now I know your retort: Hey, they haven't won a Super Bowl but they did go to one in 2004 (and 1980)! That was a very special Eagles team at the height of McNabb's career. And even at that, what blew it for them? McNabb puking in the huddle in crunch time (admittedly as I may have been in the same situation if put under that pressure!). 

    There is always an excuse, always a faltering.

    And this is no longer a very special Eagles team without Wentz behind center. 

    Every Eagles fan feels this. They know what I'm talking about. They wait for the bad luck to happen and the team to falter. And this really was a team that could have unseeded the Pats and won it all. But Wentz called his number on a QB sneak, got folded up like a lawn chair vs. the Ramsn and that was that. 

    And now the writing is on the wall. Tomorrow like so many other ultra-talented Eagles teams, this one goes down as well. The Bad Luck excuse already written on a pink slip and folded up in the back of Eagles' fans pockets. 

    It's just who this team is. It's like the Nets. They will never win a championship in my lifetime. Neither will the Jets. They will get close (Kidd brought them their after Thorn pulled off the greatest heist in NBA history for Marbury), but they will never get it done.

    Just like...this Eagles team. All the Vikings failures late, can now be corrected.

    It will be close (4 to 6 range imo), but the Eagles won't get the cigar...and we get the best line with reduced juice. 

    Vikings -3 (-105) over Eagles 

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    6. House Money

    T6Rider brought this up last week. The Vikes, after their historic last second miracle, are playing with house money. And moreover they are something the Music City Miracle Titans (who went to the big game and came up 1 yard short after their own comparable miracle) weren't: They are a better team. So you have a double whammy against Philly with a team playing with house money + talent up against them.

    And last but not least, and you can dismiss it all you want (and 90% will) but every person from South and Central Jersey and Philly knows this...

    7. The Eagles never get the job done in the Playoffs!

    Whether it was the decade+ of Andy Reid led Eagles who always faltered in the playoffs (they even lost to the Bucs in 2002 in under 40 degree weather, a temperature the Bucs had NEVER won in), the Eagles always hit a stumbling block.

    Now I know your retort: Hey, they haven't won a Super Bowl but they did go to one in 2004 (and 1980)! That was a very special Eagles team at the height of McNabb's career. And even at that, what blew it for them? McNabb puking in the huddle in crunch time (admittedly as I may have been in the same situation if put under that pressure!). 

    There is always an excuse, always a faltering.

    And this is no longer a very special Eagles team without Wentz behind center. 

    Every Eagles fan feels this. They know what I'm talking about. They wait for the bad luck to happen and the team to falter. And this really was a team that could have unseeded the Pats and won it all. But Wentz called his number on a QB sneak, got folded up like a lawn chair vs. the Ramsn and that was that. 

    And now the writing is on the wall. Tomorrow like so many other ultra-talented Eagles teams, this one goes down as well. The Bad Luck excuse already written on a pink slip and folded up in the back of Eagles' fans pockets. 

    It's just who this team is. It's like the Nets. They will never win a championship in my lifetime. Neither will the Jets. They will get close (Kidd brought them their after Thorn pulled off the greatest heist in NBA history for Marbury), but they will never get it done.

    Just like...this Eagles team. All the Vikings failures late, can now be corrected.

    It will be close (4 to 6 range imo), but the Eagles won't get the cigar...and we get the best line with reduced juice. 

    Vikings -3 (-105) over Eagles 

     
    snowman76
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 10:58 PM ET #4

      GL Scal,  glad you are free at last
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      GL Scal,  glad you are free at last
     
    alvaro_duarte
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:03 PM ET #5

    well done, my friend!

    I had min before you posted and now I feel more comfortable 

    let's cash out! an_cheers

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    well done, my friend!

    I had min before you posted and now I feel more comfortable 

    let's cash out! an_cheers

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:07 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by snowman76:

      GL Scal,  glad you are free at last

    Took a while right?

    All because of a potty mouth??

    Alvaro 
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    Quote Originally Posted by snowman76:

      GL Scal,  glad you are free at last

    Took a while right?

    All because of a potty mouth??

    Alvaro 
     
    TheSquare
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:09 PM ET #7

    Even before I read your post, I was on the Vikings -3.  Glad to see that we're on the same side scal... peace_5

    Yes, I AM a robot...

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    Even before I read your post, I was on the Vikings -3.  Glad to see that we're on the same side scal... peace_5

    Yes, I AM a robot...

     
    ATS2015
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:14 PM ET #8

    BOL Scal go Vikes
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    BOL Scal go Vikes
     
    Dogjimbo
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:20 PM ET #9

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    Swoop
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:20 PM ET #10

    Scal, I respect you bro.   I really do.  But seriously, you know that no Eagles fans read the Star frickin’ Ledger, right?  

     

    C’mon dawg.  That was the weakest point you could have ever come up with.  

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    Scal, I respect you bro.   I really do.  But seriously, you know that no Eagles fans read the Star frickin’ Ledger, right?  

     

    C’mon dawg.  That was the weakest point you could have ever come up with.  

     
    JDHERMOSA
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:23 PM ET #11

    God damn it... You're the Lang of covers... there goes my VIkes bet...son of a...
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    God damn it... You're the Lang of covers... there goes my VIkes bet...son of a...
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:24 PM ET #12

    Square ATS Dog

    Swoop, the point WASN'T that Eagles fans read the Ledger (because who cares what the FANS read), the point was the article was HANDED to Keenum HIMSELF (and as long as the paper is not The Onion, the psychological impact is all the same).

    While I don't base an entire cap off that, I certainly love to see bulletin board material hand-delivered to the recipient like a Raven bringing it across the skies on his thigh in a Game of Thrones.
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    Square ATS Dog

    Swoop, the point WASN'T that Eagles fans read the Ledger (because who cares what the FANS read), the point was the article was HANDED to Keenum HIMSELF (and as long as the paper is not The Onion, the psychological impact is all the same).

    While I don't base an entire cap off that, I certainly love to see bulletin board material hand-delivered to the recipient like a Raven bringing it across the skies on his thigh in a Game of Thrones.
     
    Toothfairy1
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:26 PM ET #13

    Although we don’t agree politically, I’m glad we agree on the Vikings!

    GL to us!

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    Although we don’t agree politically, I’m glad we agree on the Vikings!

    GL to us!

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:29 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by Toothfairy1:

    Although we don’t agree politically, I’m glad we agree on the Vikings!

    GL to us!


    99.5% of covers doesn't agree with me politically. That's a given!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toothfairy1:

    Although we don’t agree politically, I’m glad we agree on the Vikings!

    GL to us!


    99.5% of covers doesn't agree with me politically. That's a given!
     
    Toothfairy1
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:34 PM ET #15

    I WISH! 

    Nothing but the best fine sir!

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    I WISH! 

    Nothing but the best fine sir!

     
    D00bies
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2018 - 11:50 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by JDHERMOSA:

    God damn it... You're the Lang of covers... there goes my VIkes bet...son of a...

    Lol
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDHERMOSA:

    God damn it... You're the Lang of covers... there goes my VIkes bet...son of a...

    Lol
     
    justliketoplay
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 12:00 AM ET #17

    Yep! And the Philadelphia Eagles players handed Nick Foles an article in regards to him losing his Job in 2015 to Case Keenum when they were both playing for the rams.....This propaganda doesn't mean $hit Scal. Let's see what happens on the field come Sunday.

    Good luck with your Vikings play

    When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
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    Yep! And the Philadelphia Eagles players handed Nick Foles an article in regards to him losing his Job in 2015 to Case Keenum when they were both playing for the rams.....This propaganda doesn't mean $hit Scal. Let's see what happens on the field come Sunday.

    Good luck with your Vikings play

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 12:03 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:

    Yep! And the Philadelphia Eagles players handed Nick Foles an article in regards to him losing his Job in 2015 to Case Keenum when they were both playing for the rams.....This propaganda doesn't mean $hit Scal. Let's see what happens on the field come Sunday.

    Good luck with your Vikings play


    Just seeing what happens on the field is flipping coins into wishing wells.

    I'm at the bottom of the well catching the coin...yelling the pick up to you.

    Lean your ear over, it's all....right here.


    Vikings
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    Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:

    Yep! And the Philadelphia Eagles players handed Nick Foles an article in regards to him losing his Job in 2015 to Case Keenum when they were both playing for the rams.....This propaganda doesn't mean $hit Scal. Let's see what happens on the field come Sunday.

    Good luck with your Vikings play


    Just seeing what happens on the field is flipping coins into wishing wells.

    I'm at the bottom of the well catching the coin...yelling the pick up to you.

    Lean your ear over, it's all....right here.


    Vikings
     
    packersbackers
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 12:19 AM ET #19

    A year ago, no one would have been able to predict Keenum vs Foles for a spot in the Superbowl...no one...wonder how the refs will influence the game this week...Ed Hoculi and his crew will be the xfactor...first team to score a pick 6 will have the honor to lose to the Patriots and Brady's stitches
    MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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    A year ago, no one would have been able to predict Keenum vs Foles for a spot in the Superbowl...no one...wonder how the refs will influence the game this week...Ed Hoculi and his crew will be the xfactor...first team to score a pick 6 will have the honor to lose to the Patriots and Brady's stitches
     
    Lets_Get_em
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 12:33 AM ET #20

    BOL Scal
    Believe in QUALITY over quantity.
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    BOL Scal
     
    Titusblink
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 1:41 AM ET #21

    Haha, Scal love ya the most....

    I am soo deep on Pats/Minny tease and Pats -7... Have to hit pause on exposure... once the Pats cash , I will prob add some more Minny

    This -3 line... I am so curious if it will stand pat tomorrow


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    Haha, Scal love ya the most....

    I am soo deep on Pats/Minny tease and Pats -7... Have to hit pause on exposure... once the Pats cash , I will prob add some more Minny

    This -3 line... I am so curious if it will stand pat tomorrow


     
    Titusblink
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 1:43 AM ET #22

    P.S. Banking  week.. We simply cannot be betting standard 1 unit bets on these 2 championship games
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    P.S. Banking  week.. We simply cannot be betting standard 1 unit bets on these 2 championship games
     
    TickleMeElmo
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 1:43 AM ET #23

    My money is on the vikings.. 23-13
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    My money is on the vikings.. 23-13
     
    Dilemma
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 3:22 AM ET #24

    GL Scal!

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    GL Scal!

     
     
    WHATTAPLAY
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2018 - 3:43 AM ET #25

    "Vikings coach Mike Zimmer will center his gameplan around making Foles play off-schedule, where rhythm and clarity can't be found."


    So, I just wanna get this straight. So Coach Zimmer is likely gonna blitz sometimes ,then others just show blitz and drop into coverage.....to throw off the opposing QB's rhythm and pocket comfort.

    THIS, I have to see........I mean, being that no coach has ever done it to any QB before.
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    "Vikings coach Mike Zimmer will center his gameplan around making Foles play off-schedule, where rhythm and clarity can't be found."


    So, I just wanna get this straight. So Coach Zimmer is likely gonna blitz sometimes ,then others just show blitz and drop into coverage.....to throw off the opposing QB's rhythm and pocket comfort.

    THIS, I have to see........I mean, being that no coach has ever done it to any QB before.
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