Vikings @ Bears - MrHeadache's Major Move

good stuff

Very Nice Writeup! Totally Agree!

Well I didn't go 5-0 like I thought I would, but settling for a 4-1 record yesterday was not so bad either.  I mentioned last night that I would have a big play for tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between Divisional foes, the Vikings and the Bears, and that is why I am here now.  So let's took a good look at this one.

I would like to start off by addressing a few important things: First off, if you are one that looks at public percentages on this site, and some others, and are thinking, "wow, everyone is on the Vikings tonight", you better think again.  Let me remind you guys again, these percentages on this site and others are not even close to accurate.  And besides, even if they were dead on accurate, they dont paint the most important picture here for us, which is how much money is going on one side of this one.  Let me tell you that you need to know people on the inside, or you have to be privy to that information yourself in order to have a good idea of where the money is going.  These percentages on this site only guage the number of bets, which is irrelevant, and is not going to be profitable over the long haul...probably about good enough to break even...which is not why you are doing this...we want to WIN!!!

Secondly, let me address another thing before I move forward on my analysis...for those of you mentioning and taking the Bears because of what Brett Favre's numbers have been in the past years with the temp below 38 degrees on the road, you again are only looking at one aspect of the game here.  Yes, those stats are eye-opening, and need to be considered, but to what level?  It seems those people that are riding those stats and playing the Bears are putting all of their eggs into that basket...which is not the right play here.  Those stats should factor into your decision, and they have factored into mine as well, but they only paint part of the picture here tonight.  In fact you can throw out last year's game at Carolina, because we all know that Brett Favre had a torn bicep in his throwing arm...(think that is nothing important, then let me tell you that Bob Sanders has the same injury and he is done for the year...Brett Favre had this injury in his throwing arm...come on...that has to spreak volumes here)....so throw that game out the window...and then you have to go back and look at each one of those games...how good were the Packers when Brett was playing on those teams???  The QB is the most important position on the field, but how is the team?  Who are they playing?  How good are those teams?  Did the Packers need the game (almost all of those games are played very late in Dec.)  Were the Packers out of the playoffs, or were they getting ready for the playoffs?  What about the other teams?  Were they battling for a playoff spot?  You have to consider all of these factors.  I will tell you right now that this Vikings team is far better than any of the other teams that Brett Favre has played for in the past 7 road games where the temp was colder than 38 degrees.  So make sure to factor that in.  Also, what is going to be asked of Brett Favre tonight? Adrian Peterson has dominated the Bears in his career, and this is not the same Bears Def. as he has seen in past years...they are terrible against he run, and without Urlacher they are even worst.  Adrian Peterson has taken a lot of shit the past few weeks (months) and maybe rightfully so, but look at his numbers...for a guy that has been stuffed a lot lately, he still has 15 TD's and is averaging 4.4 per carry.  Those are not bad numbers by any means...he has just set the bar so high with his first two years, that this seems like a bad runner lately....don't be fooled...this guys is one the most competitive players in the game...he is hungry, and he will be on the biggest stage again tonight, against a team that he eats up. So what will Brett have to do tonight?  Hand the ball off a lot, and hopefully watch Adrian Peterson take over the game....which will limit what Favre is asked to do, and he can really just relax and feel comfortable.

Now, let me move onto my pick...Keep in mind that I have addressed those two issues I first mentioned in my decision...I have factored those both into play, but here is some more.  The Vikings are not the square play either tonight...I would just like to point that out.  MIN is 2-8 ATS in December games, and the Home Team betwen these two teams are 8-2 ATS the spread in their last 10 games.  The Vikings are also 12-23 as a favorite against the Bears.  Also, Monday Night Football favorites are a lowsy 38% ATS after coming off an upset loss (Vikings lost to the Panthers last Sunday evening as -9 faves).  Yes, the Bears are terrible this year, and have dropped 7 straight ATS, and 9 of their last 10 ATS, but shouldnt that only had value to their spread tonight?  So for those of you that might say the Vikings are a square play tonight, think again. 

Now, onto the good stuff....the Vikings are looking to lock up the 2nd seed tonight as they travel to Chicago and Soldier Field.  Not only are they looking to lock up the 2nd seed, but they are looking to put some serious pressure on the Saints for the #1 seed, which is so vital for both of these teams...(it is going to be very difficult for either team to travel on the road and play in the opponent's dome and win).  The Vikings should know very well that if they win tonight that have a really legit shot at doing just so....since the Saints will have to travel on the road and play the Panthers, who just whipped the Vikings last week, and backed it up yesterday on the road against a Giants team that needed to win.  That will be a tough task for a Saints team that has had its struggles recently too.  The Vikings will be up for this game...they have a lot on the line, and they have a lot of questions to answer.  I actually will have to say that in my opinion, I think this whole Favre-Childress issue came at a great time, and is only going to help unite this team, and wake them up.  Expect a heavy dose from Childress and Bevell in the running game and getting this team ready for the playoffs....they are going to return to that power running game, and get their O-line going again, as they have been the biggest issue for the Vikings lately, not Favre, and not Peterson. 

The fact of the matter is this:  I am not going to back Jay Cutler and the Bears tonight over Brett Favre and the Vikings on national tv with the Vikings eyeing the number 2 seed, as well as the possibility of the nunber 1 seed.  I would lay up to 14 points in this game.  This is a perfect spot for the Bears to show up on the Vikings shedule, and the Vikings put off and shup up their critics at least another week...

Minnesota Vikings -8