Trends & Things week 8 2008 NFL

 The final in that game was 13-10 in favor of NY . In that game the Giants passed for only 49 yards while the Dolphins got 138 .

NYG did average 5.1 yards per run in that chewed up  field and managed 19 first downs . Miami got 138 passing yards out of Cleo lemon , while the running game of the Dolphins managed an average of 4.14 yards per run for a total of 189 rushing yards .

 The key stats : 7 fumbles with 3 of them causing turnovers. The other involved penalties . The 2 teams combined for 14 penalties costing them 121 yards .

The O/U was 47 1/2 for the 2007 London NFL game. This one rests at 46 to 46.5  ( though I see a 44.5 )

That game was subjected to hours of rain before and during the game .  Weather forecast for London calls for heavy rain on sunday morning slowling to a sprinkle by game time with westerly winds of around 13 MPH

This is what was said after the game last year : "With the wet sodden conditions, the grass was too short to withstand the punishment of an NFL match. Would have been fine for a British football game but NFL players are far bigger and the nature of the sport made the pitch very slippery. Jay Feeley said it was like playing on ice. "
The grass they use in American stadiums are Bermuda or Kentucky Bluegrass ( or a hybrid ) which is a much thicker and stronger type of grass that can withstand more punishment. As for the roof , why didn't they close it ?

Contrary to popular belief, the stadium's roof is not fully retractable, meaning it cannot cover the playing surface in inclement weather.

The roof was designed to allow more sunlight to reach the pitch and is opened fully at the end of an event to enable this to happen. During an event the roof is positioned such that it protects the seating area from rain etc. The roof only slides out to the edge of the touchline. It does not cover the pitch.

Back to last year's comments after the game >>>

"Groundstaff at the new Wembley Stadium have continued to seal up the deep tears in the pitch as stadium officials said that the damage inflicted by Sunday night's American football match between the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins was no worse than they had expected. "

"The pitch deteriorated so badly under heavy downpours that a debate has been sparked as to why the £800 million stadium was not built to include a fully retractable roof. "

"While the roof was retracted to its maximum on Sunday, this move shielded only spectators in the lower West and East stands and left the turf fully exposed to the rain. "

"Since Wembley's is not a seeded surface, it becomes unusually susceptible in wet conditions – the top two inches of turf retain moisture, delaying percolation into the drier material below. "

Gary Myers in The New York Daily News writing: "It's a shame after traveling across the Atlantic that the league subjected the Giants and Dolphins to such dreadful field conditions. It's not breaking news that it rains in London this time of the year."

Dave Tossell, director of public affairs for NFL International, confirmed that every aspect of the game's staging would be under review but described the degrading of the pitch as an "occupational hazard", arguing: "Wembley could not have done better "

While it won't nearly rain as much as it did last year prior to the game , the fact that Wembley will get a heavy downpour the very morning of the event will cause the turf to be sliperry and get chewed up during the game . 

This should have enough impact on theall of the  player's footing .  Explosive plays, specially by the receivers coming off the line of scrimmage will be more difficult.

Linemen lose their traction and running backs can slip and stumble . Of course , defenders can slip or lose some speed as reacting can be more difficult in wet, slippery turf leaving the players on offense wide open .

Turnovers were a big factor last year , and so were penalties . This game is too important for both teams to simply give it away . 

New Orleans is the top rated passing team in the NFL with 402.3 yards per game and 25.6 points per game ( 9th ranking )

San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL with 327.6 yards per game and 27.4 points per game ( ranks 6th )

These 2 teams play on different surfaces . New Orleans plays on artificial turf ( Sportexe Momentum Turf ) San Diego plays on natural turf. 

New Orleans has not won a single game away from home this year losing 3 times and all of the teams New Orleans  lost against played on a natural turf >>> Carolina , Denver , Washington .

 New Orleans has won 3  of 4 of their home games.

Digging a little further we find that New Orleans had a respectable 4-4 road record in 2007 ,  4 of these games were played on artificial turf and the other 4 on natural grass.

However , New Orleans ended up losing 3 of 4 on a natural field , with their only victory coming @ Carolina . 3 of 4 from the  road wins came on artificial turf .

Then we can say that dating back to the start of the 2007-2008 season , New Orleans has managed only one win on a natural turf out of 7 opportunities . In 2006-2007 the Saints were a playoff team that won a total of 11 games including a playoff win  , yet even then , they only managed to go 3-3 on grass.

In the meantime , San Diego plays in a division ( AFC West )  where every single team plays on grass ( Oakland , Denver , San Diego, Kansas City )

San Diego has a record of 42-18- 3 on grass going back 63 games . This year , they did lose to Denver by one point and to Miami by 7 both natural fields . their worse loss was @ Buffalo which uses artificial turf ( AstroPlay )

At home , this year they won two games easily vs New England and NY Jets , while losing another squeaker to Carolina . Except for Buffalo @ their place , the teams that beat San Diego play on grass themselves .

 Even though San Diego is underperforming with a 3-4 record  it still has proven it can win anywhere both on natural turf and artificial turf @ home or on the road. Even though the defense has not measured up , the Chargers bounced back strongly from their last defeat with their best effort of the year .

Their last loss was the worse defeat of the year by 9 points on the road to a solid Buffalo team.

They have been victimized by a brutal schedule that has taken them from Oakland to Miami , back to the Bay Area , only to fly back East again to face Buffalo . This unkind schedule could be  a factor as the chargers must now travel to London and shake off fatigue . No doubt though , that this team will be focused if not quite jetlagged .

For the New Orleans Saints,  bringing their potent offense to Europe , they could not be any farther away from home . Wembley stadium won't look anything like the Louisiana Superdome , and the type of field they least prefer playing in will prove more foreign to them with adverse weather conditions .

While it may not rain during the game itself , short yardage plays are more likely than explosive big plays for touchdowns. There will be some penalties , and there should be at least a couple of turnovers. While these types of plays and miscues can lead to increase scoring , what's expected from these high scoring squads is not likely to happen , and if the NY Giants and Miami Dolphins of last year ran the ball well measured by their avearge carry , but only accounted to 23 points , these two squads less suited to wet conditons having to resort to their 27th ranked rush offense ( NO - 91.4 yards / 3.56 YPR  ) &  26th ranked rush offense ( SD - 94.7 yards  /  3.81 YPR ) may wish to leave Wembley to the soccer stars . And speaking of stars , Reggie Bush's explosiveness won't be available to NO. 

With a wet turf not suited for NFL games , it is reasonable to believe that these teams stay under the number 46  .If it wasn't for San Diego's brutal scheduling , and poor record when traveling far away from home , I would also give the advantage to the Chargers .

**********************************************