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Trends & Things Week 3 2008 NFL

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Posted: #26

#1

 
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Posted: #27
Have you looked @ Carolina + the 3.5?
 
The underdog in Carolina games generally covers. I'm sure you know the record.
 
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Posted: #28
  Great stuff, keep it coming Roberto...........
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #29
re: Carolina ...
 
The Panthers have been revived this year by their newfound comittment to running the rock (JStew) .... last time I checked, the Vikings were the hardest team in the tri-state area to run against.
 
With the talented Vikings playing with urgency, and the key matchup advantage of the game in their favor - even with WR Steve Smith's return, this may be the week that the dog does not cover in Panther games.
 
 
 
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Posted: #30
Roberto,
Are you a memeber of Sports Insights?If you are I was just wondering how good is the sight?Is it very helpful?
 
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Posted: #31
thanks for all the info Roberto! Nice work!
 
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Posted: #32
YO ROB, A LOT OF INFO TO HELP. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.
 
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Posted: #33
i always enjoy reading the numbers u provide. 
 
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Posted: #34
i like the ravens here.  they will start fast.  2 weeks to rest and gameplan and practice. 

plus Balty will make sure Jamal Lewis has a crappy game (probably would have had one anyways), so Derek Anderson will be forced to take shots with Winslow and Edwards ( and Edwards has been struggling).
 
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Posted: #35
Sorry if I don't get to individual questions or comments ..
 
Trends & things >>>
 
KC @ Atlanta - 5.5 / 6
 
QB  Tyler Thigpen starts as QB for the Chiefs .
Only second time  Atlanta is favored  in 19 regular season games
 ( Last time on week 9 of 2007 vs SF - 3.5 won 20-16 )
Jeff Sagarin line : Atlanta 17.92 vs KC 15.17 = Atlanta + 2.5 / 3
Bet tracker : Atlanta ...77 %
opening line :  - 3 current line - 5.5
KC is 7-1 ATS last 8 road games .
week 3 trend : Home team that lost SU week 2 vs road team that lost week 2 SU >> Home team is 23-42 ( 35 % )
Trend : against Atlanta ( favors KC )
Under is 13-3 in KC's games in September
 
Opinion : Take Kansas City + 6 or Pass
 
***************************************
 
Arizona @ Washington - 3 / - 3.5
 
Jeff Sagarin line : Arizona 18.89 vs Wash 24.05 = Wash - 5
Bet tracker : Arizona ...59 %
opening line : - 3 current line - 3 / - 3 
Wash is 2-10-2 ATS first game as dog in reg season
Wash is 5-14-3 ATS in sept & 8-22 ATS @ home in sept.
Ariz is 6-0 ATS in sept.
Ariz is 9-21 ATS vs non-div opp on the road
Dog is 15-7 ATS in this series
Over is 22-7-1 in Ariz road games vs non-div opp
2-0 trends :
2-0 road teams scoring more than 25 ppg in weeks 1 & 2 are
11-6 ATS as Dogs in week 3 ( favors Ariz )
2-0 road teams vs 1-1 Home teams as Dogs are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS ( favors Ariz )
Trends favors Arizona ML & ATS
 
opinion : Take Arizona + 3.5 / + 3
 
******************************
 
Houston @ Tennessee - 4.5 / 5
 
Jeff Sagarin line : Houston 17.02 vs Tenn 27.07 = Tenn - 10
Bet tracker : Tennessee ...68%
opening line - 5 current - 4.5
Tenn is 9-1 ATS vs AFC South
Hou is 3-8 ATS vs AFC
Over is 8-0 vs AFC South
Under is   11-1-1 in Titans games following a SU win
 
Opinion : Pass
 
*******************************
 
Oak @ Buffalo -9.5 / - 10
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : Oakland 15.40 vs Buffalo 26.05 = Buff - 10.5
Bet tracker : Buffalo ...73 %
opening line : - 9 current line : - 9.5
Buffalo 12-3 ATS last 15 games on turf
Buffalo is 13-3-1 ATS following an ATS win
Oak is 4-17-1 ATS after accumulating less than 150 yrds passing
2-0 trend :
2-0 Home teams are 16-8 ATS when line moves in their favor
Trend favors Buffalo opening at -9 moving to - 9.5
 
Opinion : Take Buffalo - 9.5 / - 10
 
******************************
 
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - 3
 
Brian Griese starts again for TB
Jeff Sagarin rating : TB 18.68 vs Chicago 28.62 = Chicago - 11
Bet tracker : Chicago ...73 %
opening line: - 3 current line - 3
TB is 3-20 ATS vs non-div opp on the road
Chicago is 10-1 ATS in Home games vs good rushing teams ( TB 7th rush off )
Under is 13-4 in TB games as dogs of <= 3
Week 3 trend : Home Teams that lost SU  week 2 vs Road teams that won week 2 SU are 18-33 ATS
Trend against Chicago ( favors TB  )
 
Opinion : Pass
 
************************
 
Carolina @ Minnesota - 3 / - 3.5
 
Minnesota starts Gus Frerotte  
Jeff Sagarin rating : Carolina 23.37 vs Minn 22.43 = Carolina - 1
Bet tracker : Carolina ...77 %
opening line - 3 current line - 3.5
Over is 13-3-2 in Vikings games following an ATS loss
Under is 15-3 in Vikings games when HF of <= 3
2-0 / 0-2 trends :
2-0 road teams vs 0-2 Home teams  are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS as Dogs ( trend favors Carolina )
2-0 Road teams after allowing more than 15 ppg in weeks 1 & 2 are 14-7 ATS ( trend favors Carolina )
Week 3 trend :
Home teams that lost in week 2 vs Road team that won in week 2 are 23-42 ATS
Trend against Minnesota ( favors Carolina )
 
Opinion :  Take Carolina + 3 / 3.5
 
************************************
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #36
Correction on Jeff Sagarin ' s Atlanta line >> - 2.5 / 3  not + 2.5 / 3
 
Cincinnati @ NY Giants - 13.5 / 14
 
Jeff Sagarin line : Cincy 15.63 vs NYG 30.07 = NYG - 14
Bet Tracker : NYG ....65 %
opening line - 13 current line - 13.5
 
Under is 17-4 in Cincy games as RD of >= 7
Giants are 10-1 ATS after alowing less than 90 yards rushing
2-0 trend :
2-0 Home teams are 16-8 ATS when line moves in their favor
( trend favors New York Giants )
 
Opinion : Take NY Giants - 13 / -13.5  
 
*********************************
Miami @ New England - 12 / 14
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings  : Miami 12.33 vs New England 32.85 =
New England - 20.5
Bet Tracker : New England ...64 %
Opening line -13 current line - 12.5
 
Miami is 3-12-1  ATS as div road dogs
Miami is 5-22-2 ATS last 29 games vs AFC East
Under is 22-4  after allowing more than 250 yards passing prior game
 
Opinion : Take New England -12 / - 13
 
**********************************
 
Keep in mind opinions are coming from a " trends " angle .
Such is the nature of this thread ...
 
 
 
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Posted: #37
New orleans @ Denver - 5 / - 5.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : NO 18.43 vs  Denver 28.21 = Denver - 10
Bet Tracker : Denver.....70%
opening line - 4  / current line - 5.5
 
Over is 12-1-1 in Denver last 14 home games
Over is 6-2 in NO last 8 home games
Denver is 3-11 ATS last 14 games following a SU win
2-0 trend >>
2-0 Home teams scoring more than 33 ppg are 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in week 3 against any team
 
Opinion : Pass on the side
Take the OVER 50.5 / 51
 
****************************
Detroit @ San Francisco - 4/ - 4.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : Detroit 13.25 /  SF 16.78 = SF  - 3.5
Bet Tracker : SF ......66 %
opening line - 3.5 / current line  - 4
 
Detroit 2 - 11 ATS as RD of < 7
SF 0-7 ATS @ home off a road game in ' 07
 
Over is 13-4 as RD in Detroit games
Over is 10-1 in Detroit last 11 games overall
 
Opinion : Pass on the side
Take the Over 46 / 46.5
 
*************************************
 
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Posted: #38
Revising >>>New orleans @ Denver - 5 / - 5.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : NO 18.43 vs  Denver 28.21 = Denver - 10
Bet Tracker : Denver.....70%
opening line - 4  / current line - 5.5
 
Over is 12-1-1 in Denver last 14 home games
Over is 6-2 in NO last 8 home games
Denver is 3-11 ATS last 14 games following a SU win
2-0 trend >>
2-0 Home teams scoring more than 33 ppg are 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in week 3 against any team
 
2-0 Home teams vs 1-1 road team fav by <= 6 are 4-9 ATS
 
Opinion : Pass on the side
Take the OVER 50.5 / 51
 
St Louis @ Seattle - 9 / - 10.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : St Louis 19.36 vs Seattle 11.34 = Seattle - 8
Bet tracker : St Louis ....55 %
opening line 9.5 / current line 9.5
 
Seattle is 18-8 ATS HF , but 6-17-1 ATS as Div fav
St Louis is 3-11 ATS as dogs
Week 3 trend >
Home teams that lost in week 2 vs Road team that lost in week 2 are 23-42 ATS
trend goes against Seattle ( favors St Louis )
St Louis is 10-23 ATS off a SU & ATS loss
 
Opinion : Pass
 
************************************
 
Note on Bet tracker percentages / lines >>>
 
The opening and current spreads that you see bellow the bet tracker percentages are taken from sportinsights / two minute warning ...and correspond to each other ...though you may have a different opening line as well as a different current line for each game .
 
 
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Posted: #39
Cleveland @ Baltimore - 1 / - 2.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : Cleveland 14.77 vs Balt 21.87 = Baltimore - 7
Bet tracker : Cleveland 53 %
opening line -2.5 / current line  - 1 ( Baltimore )
 
Baltimore is 13-4 ATS as HF of <= 3
Cleveland  is 4-11 ATS after allowing <= 10 points
Cleveland is 11-1 ATS vs team with a winning record ( we have to give it to the Ravens @ 1-0 SU )
Baltimore 3-11 ATS last 14 vs AFC
Cleveland 12-3 ATS last 15 games on grass
 
Opinion : Pass
 
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Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - 3 / -3.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : Phil 27.51 vs Pitt 23.89 = Phil - 3.5
Bet tracker : Philadelphia ....70 %
opening line -3 / current line - 3.5
 
Pittsburgh is 12-5-1 ATS on the road after another road game
Pittsburgh is 27-18-1 ATS after aloowing <= 10 points
Eagles are 2-10-1  ATS after accumulating more than 250 passing yards prior game  
Piitsburgh is 27-9 ATS vs a .750 % team
Pittsburgh is 32-12 ATS vs good passing teams
Week 3 stats :
Home teams that lost vs Road teams that won in week 2 are
18-33 ATS ( 35 % ) in week 3
Trend favors Pittsburgh on the road in week 3  ( lost last week  ) vs Philly ( won last week ) @ home in week 3
 
Opinion : Take Pittsburgh + 3.5 / + 3
 
********************************
 
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Posted: #41
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis - 5 / -5.5
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : Jax 21.68 / Indi 28.63 = Indi - 7
Bet tracker : Indianapolis....59 %
Opening line - 6 / current line - 5.
 
Jac is 11-3-1 ATS as Road dogs vs Div opp
Indi is 11-28 ATS @ home vs teams with losing records
Colts are 2-8 ATS vs the AFC South
Over is 13-5 in Jac games as dogs of < 10 , but
Under is 11-4 as Div Road dogs
Over is 10-2-2 in Jac last 14 games overall
 
Opinion : Jacksonville + 5.5 / 5
 
**************************************
 
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Posted: #42
Dallas @ Green Bay + 3
 
Jeff Sagarin rating : Dallas 26.42 vs GB  27.59 = Green Bay -1
Bet tracker : Dallas ....72 %
opening line:  Dallas -3 / current line -3
 
Home team is 10-0 ATS in series since 1994
Over is 10-1 in this series since 1993
Over is 14-2 in GB's last 16 games following an ATS win
Over is 8-0 in GB' s last 8 games on grass
Over is 13-3 in GB 's last 13 games vs NFC
Over is 13-5-2 in Dallas last 20 road games
Over is 4-0 last 4 meetings
Over is 7-0 in Cowboys last 7 games in week 3
Under  is 6-0 in Cowboys last games following an ATS loss
2-0 Trend
2-0 Home team scoring more than 33 ppg are a perfect 13-0 SU &
10-2-1 ATS in week 3 against any opponent
Trend favors Green Bay both ML / ATS
 
Opinion : Take Green Bay + 3 / ML
 
Note :
Very strong trends favoring the over , but with the over/under above 50 in a marquee matchup involving two strong offenses that scored a pile of points against their respective opponents the week prior  ...a white flag is raised ...
I wil revisit a system play I featured in the past involving high scoring offenses on this total ....before passing judgement ...
 
****************************************
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #43
NY Jets @ SD - 8.5 / 10
Jeff Sagarin rating : NY Jets 18.20 vs SD 27.87 = SD - 9.5
Bet tracker : NY Jets ....56 %
opening line - 9 / current line - 9
 
SD is 7-1 ATS last 8 home games
Jets are 12-4 ATS following an ATS loss
Jets are 21-8 ATS after scoring less than 15 points prior game
Over is 10-2 ATS last 12 Chargers games following an ATS loss
Week 3 trend :
Home teams that lost in week 2 vs road team that lost in week 2 are 23-42 ATS ( 35 % )
Trend goes against SD ( favors NY Jets )
Jets are 4-0 ATS in series
 
Opinion : Lean towards NY Jets
I will revisit this matchup
 
********************************
 
 
 
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Posted: #44
Likely candidate for
 
Underdog Trend Pick >>>
 
Green bay Packers ...
 
H2H the Home team is 10-0 SU ...( Dallas-GB )
 
Week 3 trend that states 2-0 Home teams averaging more than 33 ppg are a perfect 13-0 SU and 10-2-1 ATS ( since 1992 )
 
With Green Bay as an Underdog of 3 points @ home ...this may be the be best choice
 
*****************************
 
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Posted: #45
Given the value I have assigned to the single strong trends ...I need to revisit this matchup >>
 
Tampa Bay @ Chicago - 3
 
Brian Griese starts again for TB
Jeff Sagarin rating : TB 18.68 vs Chicago 28.62 = Chicago - 11
Bet tracker : Chicago ...73 %
opening line: - 3 current line - 3
TB is 3-20 ATS vs non-div opp on the road
Chicago is 10-1 ATS in Home games vs good rushing teams ( TB 7th rush off )
Under is 13-4 in TB games as dogs of <= 3
Week 3 trend : Home Teams that lost SU  week 2 vs Road teams that won week 2 SU are 18-33 ATS
Trend against Chicago ( favors TB  )
 
Opinion : Lean towards Chicago - 3
 
***************
 
The trend of TB is 3-20 ATS vs non-div opp on the road would appear to be the single strongest trend going for a favorite
if so, then it would be Chicago ...
 
***************
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Roberto,
Are you a memeber of Sports Insights?If you are I was just wondering how good is the sight?Is it very helpful?

No, MJ2345...but I do get information from two minute warning

 
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Posted: #47
 
You're all welcome .!
 
 
and to past and future posters, viewers , contributors ...
 
..
 
 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

No, MJ2345...but I do get information from two minute warning

 

Thanks,

Keep the great trend imformation up!!!

 
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Posted: #49
Great work!  Thanks!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Thank Roberto, awesome work! Lots of good info to make Sunday a very exciting one!
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