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Trends & Things Week 3 2008 NFL

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Legend
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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

I dont have the numbers in front of me but betting against Balt at home will get you killed they are a great home cover

 

31-6 as a HF 

- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
Captain
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Posted: #77

I found this system play I mentioned in the GB-Dallas game  , though I have not updated the information since used late in 2006 ...The other aspect of this sytem play is that it seems to involve " good offensive teams " scoring between 23-27 PPG

so I am assuming that Dallas , presently averaging 34.5 ppg and Green Bay averaging 36 ppg are definitely out of that range ...

This may apply after a few weeks of play or only for teams in that scoring range ..

.( This is why I am not a big fan of these sytem and super system plays ...they can be manipulated to produce high percentage trends by having more variables )

 

Play Under - In any game involving 2 good offensive teams ( 23-27 PPG )

Results thus far>>>

 

53-23 ATS over last 5 seasons...68.8 %

The average total posted in these games was 44.3

The average total points scored in these games was 41.9

The situation's record in 2005-2006 is 9-6

In the last 3 seasons, the situation's record is 75-50

Since 1983, the situation's record is 161-116

 

Explanation: This is a totals System that proves how vulnerable the public can be, partcularly when 2 attractive offensive teams get together. As you can see, playing the under in games of this sort typically nets more than a 65 % winning percentage.

 

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #78

This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. 

 

In this scenario >>>

 

Home dogs are 57-18 ATS ( 76 % ) in the past 10 years

 

I have not updated this trend for last year ...but Green Bay is a Home Dog that won SU last week vs Detroit facing a Dallas team that won @ home vs Philadelphia

 

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Prospect
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Posted: #79
first time on your picks..very sweet props
 
Veteran
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Posted: #80
Thanks RF, you're instrumental to this forum and provide great info for the rest of us that can't do it.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #81
i like the under


i wonder if this applies to the saints/broncos game too
 
Captain
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Posted: #82
From SBR ...I looked at all the matchups and these were the ones that showed an edge >>>
 
Kansas City @ Atlanta
 
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring ATLANTA in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-8)
 
Edge to :  Atlanta
 
 Tampa Bay @ Chicago
 
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 29% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (9-22)
 
Edge to : Over 
 
Cleveland @ Baltimore
 
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring BALTIMORE in this game
 The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CLEVELAND games 29.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (8-19)
 
Edge to : Cleveland
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
  Power Rating
  Estimate Edge
DALLAS    
GREEN BAY -3 Summary of plays  >>>

Atlanta - the points

Tampa Bay - Chicago OVER

Cleveland + the points

Green Bay + the points

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