All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Trends & Things Week 3 2008 NFL

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 10985
Posts: 92
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 274
Posted: #51
you have completly changed the way i handicap over the last year thank you for your hard work
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #52
Hopefully . that translates into the bottom line iamnotpeterose !
 
correction...I spotted a typo on the Denver-NO matchup...
" Over is 12-1-1 in Denver last 14 home games
Over is 6-2 in NO last 8 home games " >>>should be ROAD
 
*******************************
 
Underdog Trend Pick >>>
 
Green Bay Packers
 
Home team has not lost ATS in 10 straight clashes in this matchup ( I realize  they are totally different teams but 10-0 is a solid  trend when it doesn't involve ANY variables at all !)
 
Teams that average at least 33 points through the first two weeks of the season are a perfect 13-0 SU ( & 10-2-1 ATS ) since 1992
 
Two perfect trends going back more than a decade ...
 
Jeff Sagarin has Green Bay favored by 1 ...essentially making Dallas a superior team by less than a field goal taking Home field in consideration ...
 
The bulk of the bets are going Dallas way at almost a 3 to 1 clip ...( about 69 % now )
 
Line is holding steady at 3 ...
 
That's your Underdog trend pick ...
 
*******************************************
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

The over trend of GB being 15-3 last 18 to the OVER and 12 -2 OVER vs NFC   is pretty remarkable ...
Now the OVER is 16-3 in GB games overall and 13-2 vs NFC .
GB is 8-0 Over last 8 games on grass
 
73 combined points were scored in the GB-Det game eclipsing the total by over 26 points !
In the meantime , Dallas ( GB next opponent ) finished playing in one of MNF's highest scoring games ever , eclipsing the line by 32 points !
 
Now , with GB playing Dallas in week 3 , we have the Over trend screaming for attention every which way you look ...
 
besides Green Bay's torrid trends to the Over , we have Dallas , again coming off a shootout and with these trends as well >>
 
Over is 13-5-1-in Cowboys vs team with a winning record
Over is 13-5-2 in Cowboys last 20 road games
Over is 15-7-2 in Cowboys last 24 road games following a SU win
Over is 6-2-1  in Dallas last 9 games in Sept
 
 Also : Dallas - GB matchup is 10-1 to the OVER !
 
Dallas has the # 2 ranked offense complimenting  GB's 6th ranked offense .
It looks like a no-brainer and these two teams averaging 35 points per game ( 36 & 34 ) should easily eclipse a 51 point total
 
Well, more on that later ...
 

My feeling on this game is that it is set up perfectly for the UNDER !

There is a system play that basically states that when two high powering offenses meet the game has a history of going Under ...

If we did a sucker bet for totals ...this would be it ...

Also as I dug up the record of games with a total over 50 from last year ( 6-4 to the Under ) marquee matchups such as this one clearly in the public eye following the Dallas nationally televised shootout against the Eagles ...AND the scoring bonanza that resulted from the Packers & Lions game last week ...this game will probably be a lot lower scoring than people think ...

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #54
Buffalo 12-3 ATS last 15 games on turf
Buffalo is 13-3-1 ATS following an ATS win
Oak is 4-17-1 ATS after accumulating less than 150 yrds passing
2-0 trend :
2-0 Home teams are 16-8 ATS when line moves in their favor
Trend favors Buffalo opening at -9 moving to - 9.5
 
Buffalo is your Favorite trend pick for this week
 
 
*********************************
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 675
Posted: #55
good research RF
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1194
Posted: #56
How is -9 to -9.5 in favor of Buffalo?
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:

How is -9 to -9.5 in favor of Buffalo?

It should probably read ...when the line moves in their direction

So 2-0 home teams that are getting bet on increasing their spread when they are favored or decreasing the spread when they are dogs from the opening line ...have turned out to be money makers to the tune of 16-8 ATS .

In some cases , a team that is 2-0 may be getting more  than 50 % of the bets , but if the line is going the other way or stays pat , then this trend does not apply ...

In the case of the Bills , the public is on them and the line did increase according to covers from -8.5 opening to 10 in a couple of spots ... needless to say the books want some action on the Raiders.

What I am unsure of is if this stat applies to the opening line or not ...

Regardless , the from -.8.5 to - 9.5 ...there isn't that much difference ...not knocking off a key number ...

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 6
Posted: #58
Buffalo 12-3 ATS last 15 games on turf
Buffalo is 13-3-1 ATS following an ATS win
------------------------------------------------------------------

I doubt they were favored by 9 in many (any?) of those games.

I still have to fade the public on this one and take the points here.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1194
Posted: #59
Thanks Roberto. .. I'm just curious, why type of money management do you follow? or do you just go with how your picks go?
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 11923
Posted: #60
Thanks for the info Roberto, now know about the 2 minute warning,continuing to play $$$ on hilton picks, like Bears -3, also like the under, like the Saints and the points, gut tells me they may win, looking at the over, playing 'Skins over AZ, really think Warner in for rough day, HOU may surprise, taking the points, Shaub will outplay Collins. Thanks for efforts on Hilton contest too!!!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 4396
Posted: #61
You the man Roberto...GL Bro...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 793
Posted: #62
Add me to the list of grateful readers for all your hard work!
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 11923
Posted: #63
oh and one more thing, HOW 'BOUT THEM RAYZ'!!!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2002
Posts: 3537
Posted: #64
Great to see back with your always valuable contributions, Mr. Fiory!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 588
Posted: #65
Good luck. jets jags steelers seem pretty strong
 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 11923
Posted: #66
just like to add with Buffalo having a nice home  ATS record, that has been primarily as an underdog,they have been a great HTU, which is the first play I look for every week, but are they really worthy of that kind of spread after beating what is now at best a mediocre Seattle team, and a beat up Jags' team with most of their o-line out?. Clearly, they have improved and are competitive, but I think the Raiders are heading in the right direction as well. Love their ground game and D.M. He's this years A.P., MAKE NO MISTAKE! This game is a pass for me but put a gun to my head and i'll take the raiders with the big# . Also, as a Dolphin fan, don't like this matchup at all with N.E. Won't play the game(for $$$), but expect the Pats' to put it all together this week and roll. For what it's worth, check out team experts on MIAMI.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5833
Posted: #67
Great stuff Roberto!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2001
Posts: 2332
Posted: #68
Thanks again Roberto
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 1630
Posted: #69
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2002
Posts: 25932
Posted: #70
good stuff robertofiory...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 22
Posted: #71
Roberto you are the man! thanx for the writeups...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2006
Posts: 79
Posted: #72
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 500
Posted: #73
 
thx 4 the info....
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2003
Posts: 17229
Posted: #74
If you like to bet on dogs, just wait before gametime.  Seeing a lot of home favorites this week, I'm pretty sure a lot of lines will move in the dogs' favor.
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 393
Posted: #75
I really like Bills, Pitts, Over in the Lions/Niners, Over Denver/Saints. Under in the Pitts/Eagles and Dallas/Packers game.
All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.