I dont have a play in the Denver/Chargers game, their is no way I would take the Chargers in this spot, dont care what the trends offer, Denver should win this by 10 pts. The Chargers are a team in disarray, not to mention they have an awful owner and coach, maybe they will turn it around after week 6 or 7, but as for now, I dont see it, but good luck!
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I dont have a play in the Denver/Chargers game, their is no way I would take the Chargers in this spot, dont care what the trends offer, Denver should win this by 10 pts. The Chargers are a team in disarray, not to mention they have an awful owner and coach, maybe they will turn it around after week 6 or 7, but as for now, I dont see it, but good luck!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring KANSAS CITY in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in JACKSONVILLE games 49.3% of the time since 1992. (75-77)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in JACKSONVILLE games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-14)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 58.9% of the time since 1992. (103-72)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-8)
Edge=KANSAS CITY
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Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring KANSAS CITY in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in JACKSONVILLE games 49.3% of the time since 1992. (75-77)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in JACKSONVILLE games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-14)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 58.9% of the time since 1992. (103-72)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-8)
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
Power Rating
Estimate
Edge
CLEVELAND
NEW ENGLAND
-23
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Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from NFL Picks, College Football Picks, Winning Points) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
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Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies
Spread
N
Freq.
0
434
0.00%
1
1,344
2.08%
2
1,667
1.62%
3
1,788
9.51%
4
1,855
2.75%
5
1,892
1.80%
6
1,278
3.52%
7
1,158
6.13%
8
1,089
1.93%
9
833
0.84%
10
546
5.13%
11
426
1.88%
12
355
0.85%
13
229
0.87%
14
181
6.63%
15
136
1.47%
16
89
3.37%
17
46
8.70%
18
30
3.33%
Methodology:
All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from NFL Picks, College Football Picks, Winning Points) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
The 17 point spread is significant in the New England - Cleveland game ...because of the surprising number of pushes there have been at that spread ....@ 8.7 %
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The 17 point spread is significant in the New England - Cleveland game ...because of the surprising number of pushes there have been at that spread ....@ 8.7 %
Home teams are 38-24 straight up thus far this season, a 61% win rate, which may not seem great, but it's not bad considering host teams went 136-120 last season, a 56% success rate. And home teams are only 28-27-7 against the spread so far this season.
Home favorites are 27-14 straight up so far this season, and a losing 15-20-6 against the spread.
Last year, NFL home underdogs went 43-33 against the spread, a 57% winning rate. This year, thanks to a 6-3 mark both SU and ATS last weekend, home dogs are 11-10 straight up and 13-7-1 vs. the numbers, a 65% winner (excluding the push).
Three teams are listed as home dogs in early Week 5 betting action. The winless St. Louis Rams, who have scored 39 points in four games so far this season, are getting three points from the visiting 2-2 Arizona Cardinals; the 2-2 San Francisco 49ers are getting three points from the visiting 2-2 Baltimore Ravens; and the 1-3 Buffalo Bills are getting 10 points from the visiting 4-0 Dallas Cowboys on Monday night.
One old football gambling adage advises bettors to simply pick the winner of the game, and let the chips fall where they may as far as the pointspread is concerned. But just picking outright winners hasn't been easy this season. Ask the oddsmakers. The teams that have been posted as favorites by the wise men of the numbers are a combined 36-26 so far this year, which comes to a 58% winning rate. And chalk is a dismal 22-33-7 against the spread so far, a 40% win clip (excluding the pushes), which has meant profits for those who like to play the dogs.
And as far as that old adage goes, the teams that have won outright so far this season are 47-8-7 against the spread, after going a perfect 14-0 last weekend.
After a 6-7-1 Week 4, the totals have played to a 29-30-3 mark on the season. Last season, the o/u went 125-120, excluding the pushes.
The three highest totals so far this season have been the New England/Cincinnati 54 on Monday night, the Indy/New Orleans 53 in Week 1 and the Seattle/Cincy 49 in Week 3. All three of these games played under their totals.
The highest total listed on any of this week's games is the 49 on the New England/Cleveland matchup.
Nine teams have been posted as double-digit favorites so far this season. Eight of those teams -- Pittsburgh -10 vs. Buffalo, Jacksonville -10 vs. Atlanta, Baltimore -10 vs. the Jets, Chicago -12 vs. Kansas City, all in Week 2; New England -16 vs. Buffalo and Pittsburgh -10 vs. San Francisco in Week 3; and Dallas -13 vs. St. Louis and Indianapolis -10 vs. Denver in Week 4 -- won those games outright, but collectively they went just 4-4 against the spread.
And the San Diego Chargers became the biggest upset victims, pointspread-wise, thus far this season when they lost last weekend at home to the Chiefs as 12-point chalk.
This week, three teams are listed as double-digit favorites in early betting action. Undefeated New England is 16½-point home chalk over the 2-2 Cleveland Browns; undefeated Indianapolis is a 10-point home favorite over a 3-1 Tampa Bay team; and, as mentioned above, the undefeated Dallas Cowboys are 10-point road favorites for their Monday night bout with the 1-3 Bills in Buffalo.
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Home teams are 38-24 straight up thus far this season, a 61% win rate, which may not seem great, but it's not bad considering host teams went 136-120 last season, a 56% success rate. And home teams are only 28-27-7 against the spread so far this season.
Home favorites are 27-14 straight up so far this season, and a losing 15-20-6 against the spread.
Last year, NFL home underdogs went 43-33 against the spread, a 57% winning rate. This year, thanks to a 6-3 mark both SU and ATS last weekend, home dogs are 11-10 straight up and 13-7-1 vs. the numbers, a 65% winner (excluding the push).
Three teams are listed as home dogs in early Week 5 betting action. The winless St. Louis Rams, who have scored 39 points in four games so far this season, are getting three points from the visiting 2-2 Arizona Cardinals; the 2-2 San Francisco 49ers are getting three points from the visiting 2-2 Baltimore Ravens; and the 1-3 Buffalo Bills are getting 10 points from the visiting 4-0 Dallas Cowboys on Monday night.
One old football gambling adage advises bettors to simply pick the winner of the game, and let the chips fall where they may as far as the pointspread is concerned. But just picking outright winners hasn't been easy this season. Ask the oddsmakers. The teams that have been posted as favorites by the wise men of the numbers are a combined 36-26 so far this year, which comes to a 58% winning rate. And chalk is a dismal 22-33-7 against the spread so far, a 40% win clip (excluding the pushes), which has meant profits for those who like to play the dogs.
And as far as that old adage goes, the teams that have won outright so far this season are 47-8-7 against the spread, after going a perfect 14-0 last weekend.
After a 6-7-1 Week 4, the totals have played to a 29-30-3 mark on the season. Last season, the o/u went 125-120, excluding the pushes.
The three highest totals so far this season have been the New England/Cincinnati 54 on Monday night, the Indy/New Orleans 53 in Week 1 and the Seattle/Cincy 49 in Week 3. All three of these games played under their totals.
The highest total listed on any of this week's games is the 49 on the New England/Cleveland matchup.
Nine teams have been posted as double-digit favorites so far this season. Eight of those teams -- Pittsburgh -10 vs. Buffalo, Jacksonville -10 vs. Atlanta, Baltimore -10 vs. the Jets, Chicago -12 vs. Kansas City, all in Week 2; New England -16 vs. Buffalo and Pittsburgh -10 vs. San Francisco in Week 3; and Dallas -13 vs. St. Louis and Indianapolis -10 vs. Denver in Week 4 -- won those games outright, but collectively they went just 4-4 against the spread.
And the San Diego Chargers became the biggest upset victims, pointspread-wise, thus far this season when they lost last weekend at home to the Chiefs as 12-point chalk.
This week, three teams are listed as double-digit favorites in early betting action. Undefeated New England is 16½-point home chalk over the 2-2 Cleveland Browns; undefeated Indianapolis is a 10-point home favorite over a 3-1 Tampa Bay team; and, as mentioned above, the undefeated Dallas Cowboys are 10-point road favorites for their Monday night bout with the 1-3 Bills in Buffalo.
The 2-2 Denver Broncos are one-point home chalk for their AFC West clash with the struggling 1-3 San Diego Chargers.
And the 4-0 Green Bay Packers, who rank dead last in the league in rushing at a paltry 54 yards per game, are three-point home favorites for their NFC North match with the 1-3 Chicago Bears Sunday night at Lambeau Field.
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Other games of note this weekend include:
The winless Saints are listed as three-point home favorites over the 2-2 Carolina Panthers in an NFC South bout.
The 2-1 Washington Redskins are early 3½-point home chalk over the 3-1 Detroit Lions, who are coming off their biggest win in recent memory.
The 2-2 Denver Broncos are one-point home chalk for their AFC West clash with the struggling 1-3 San Diego Chargers.
And the 4-0 Green Bay Packers, who rank dead last in the league in rushing at a paltry 54 yards per game, are three-point home favorites for their NFC North match with the 1-3 Chicago Bears Sunday night at Lambeau Field.
All NFL regular season final scores and closing over/unders (from https://wwww.winningpoints.com/) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for the frequncy of various totals.
The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with a closing over/under within 2 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 40 and 44.
This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
__________________
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Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies
Total
N
Freq
33
346
4.62%
34
548
2.37%
35
858
1.98%
36
1,118
1.70%
37
1,217
4.93%
38
1,322
2.65%
39
1,323
1.44%
40
1,237
2.10%
41
1,173
4.26%
42
1,157
1.47%
43
1,058
2.74%
44
932
3.43%
45
762
3.28%
46
657
1.98%
47
455
4.84%
48
349
3.44%
49
234
0.85%
Methodology:
All NFL regular season final scores and closing over/unders (from https://wwww.winningpoints.com/) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for the frequncy of various totals.
The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with a closing over/under within 2 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 40 and 44.
This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
__________________
var fortURL = "anduin.eldar.org/cgi-bin/fortune.pl?max_lines=12&"; var x = (new Date()).getTime() + Math.random(); document.write( "" );
Straight Up: 7-9 44% (#19 of 32) ATS: 5-10 33% (#29 of 32) OVER-UNDER: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32) Much like it’s in-state neighbor, Pittsburgh as faltered in pre-bye week games, going 1-6 SU in its L7, and 2-7-1 ATS in its L10,
making Seattle a potential opportunity on 10/7.
Detroit Lions >>>>
Straight Up:
4-12 25% (#31 of 32) ATS: 5-10 33% (#29 of 32) OVER-UNDER: 11-5 69% (#2 of 32) Already bad on the road historically,
Detroit is even worse before the open date. In their last seven games in that spot, they are0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS
with a trip to Washington looming on 10/7.
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Teams going into a bye
Piitsburgh Steelers >>>>
Straight Up: 7-9 44% (#19 of 32) ATS: 5-10 33% (#29 of 32) OVER-UNDER: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32) Much like it’s in-state neighbor, Pittsburgh as faltered in pre-bye week games, going 1-6 SU in its L7, and 2-7-1 ATS in its L10,
making Seattle a potential opportunity on 10/7.
Detroit Lions >>>>
Straight Up:
4-12 25% (#31 of 32) ATS: 5-10 33% (#29 of 32) OVER-UNDER: 11-5 69% (#2 of 32) Already bad on the road historically,
Detroit is even worse before the open date. In their last seven games in that spot, they are0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS
Looking good so far roberto... this is some excellent info as im looking through. Last week I was worried that the appreciation thread might have gone to your head... The higher the climb the further you fall, so keep doing what you can do(making solid winning picks)..
I'm suprised you haven't been adding many Over Under's to your plays.. The way you bet, few solid games, Over/Under gives you 100% increase of choices to make.
Anyway, my confidence in you is still high, especially after seeing what you've researched already.
to a + week
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Looking good so far roberto... this is some excellent info as im looking through. Last week I was worried that the appreciation thread might have gone to your head... The higher the climb the further you fall, so keep doing what you can do(making solid winning picks)..
I'm suprised you haven't been adding many Over Under's to your plays.. The way you bet, few solid games, Over/Under gives you 100% increase of choices to make.
Anyway, my confidence in you is still high, especially after seeing what you've researched already.
There is an active trend in the NFL currently that is almost hard to believe. Road dogs in the NFL of less than 6 points that have more wins than their opponent are now 18-0-1 ATS the last 19 times.
This trend dates to last year week 13 and is already 6-0-1 ATS this year.
This last week Oakland went into Miami 1-2 to face the winless Dolphins and got the win and cover as 4 point dogs.
There are 2 games that fit the scenario this week.
Carolina +3
Detroit +3.5
It seems almost too simplistic, but its certainly worth tracking.
but >>> then he added :
" Went back and tracked this system:
**This system is on a 18-0-1 ATS streak and is 6-0-1 ATS this season.
**If you like short-term systems then ride them out till it loses. I don't play these short term systems. The system did well last season it finished the year overall at 20-14-2 ATS (2006)
**However, it did very poorly in 2005 going 8-20-2 ATS
**12-15 ATS in 2004 "
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From a cappers forum poster ....>>
There is an active trend in the NFL currently that is almost hard to believe. Road dogs in the NFL of less than 6 points that have more wins than their opponent are now 18-0-1 ATS the last 19 times.
This trend dates to last year week 13 and is already 6-0-1 ATS this year.
This last week Oakland went into Miami 1-2 to face the winless Dolphins and got the win and cover as 4 point dogs.
There are 2 games that fit the scenario this week.
Carolina +3
Detroit +3.5
It seems almost too simplistic, but its certainly worth tracking.
but >>> then he added :
" Went back and tracked this system:
**This system is on a 18-0-1 ATS streak and is 6-0-1 ATS this season.
**If you like short-term systems then ride them out till it loses. I don't play these short term systems. The system did well last season it finished the year overall at 20-14-2 ATS (2006)
**However, it did very poorly in 2005 going 8-20-2 ATS
Interesting post by a fellow cappers poster ....that applies to
A) My bet tracker statistics ...
B) AFC vs NFC Trends
Here is his opinion >>>>>>
Week 5 - Early Leans - Possible 10* Bombs)
Still very early in the week, but I am almost sure I will be playing these 2 games. Week 5 is a pivotal week for teams off to bad starts, most notably teams with 1-3 records. Think about it, you lose and your 1-4 and almost for sure your season is toast...win and you are 2-3 with new life. There is a huge diffence between being 1-4 and 2-3. The Bears come in off one of the most discouraging losses in some time.This is a must-win situation for the Bears. If they lose they will be 4 games back, plus the loss to GB, making them basically 5 games back. I lost fading them last week, and really had not planned to play against them this week. The series has been very slanted to the road team lately. I'm not going to look it up now, but trust me, I play the road team in this rivalry enough to know they have done well. Brian Griese has a game under his belt and should play better this week. This is also the Sunday Night game this week, so all bettors will focus on this game, and will come to the only logical conclusion, take Green Bay. Money split is already off to a 87/13% start, yet they took the hook off this game and made it 3. Lots of bets on Green Bay, lots of BIG bets on Chicago. There is no way to play this game but to take the points. Chicago +3 (I will wait till almost game time as I expect game day money to push this line)
One situation I have been very profitable with is playing on AFC teams getting points on the road vs the NFC. I think there is a huge disparity in the conferences across the board. The good teams in the AFC are better than the good teams from the NFC, the bad teams from the AFC are better than the bad teams from the NFC. Where I think the biggest difference is though is in the middle...middle of the pack, borderline playoff-type teams in the AFC are much better than the NFC. Last year AFC inter-confernece road dogs were 11-4 ATS, I am almost sure I played them all. This year so far they are 3-0. You should already know my play....the Jets. First of all, they fit the same do-or-die scenario as the Bears. They are 1-3 and have a shot to turn their year around, but it must start this week. They made the playoffs last year, so they have the heart and skill to make it happen. From a public perception viewpoint these 2 teams couldn't be headed in more opposite directions. Giants absolutely mauled the Eagles with their pass rush and physical play. The Jets lost to the frigging Bills...the Bills? Are you kidding me? This is almsot like a division rival game, so I automatically like the dog in those games. The Giants have been very bad as favs lately, again I can't quote a trend, but I know they are money-burners as chalk. The Giants blasted the Eagles on national TV and now only need to do what Buffalo did. Surely if Buffalo can beat the Jets by 3 the Giants can do them 1 better and win by 4, right? The early money sure thinks so as 86% are taking the G-Men. You know what Im doing... NY Jets +3.5
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Interesting post by a fellow cappers poster ....that applies to
A) My bet tracker statistics ...
B) AFC vs NFC Trends
Here is his opinion >>>>>>
Week 5 - Early Leans - Possible 10* Bombs)
Still very early in the week, but I am almost sure I will be playing these 2 games. Week 5 is a pivotal week for teams off to bad starts, most notably teams with 1-3 records. Think about it, you lose and your 1-4 and almost for sure your season is toast...win and you are 2-3 with new life. There is a huge diffence between being 1-4 and 2-3. The Bears come in off one of the most discouraging losses in some time.This is a must-win situation for the Bears. If they lose they will be 4 games back, plus the loss to GB, making them basically 5 games back. I lost fading them last week, and really had not planned to play against them this week. The series has been very slanted to the road team lately. I'm not going to look it up now, but trust me, I play the road team in this rivalry enough to know they have done well. Brian Griese has a game under his belt and should play better this week. This is also the Sunday Night game this week, so all bettors will focus on this game, and will come to the only logical conclusion, take Green Bay. Money split is already off to a 87/13% start, yet they took the hook off this game and made it 3. Lots of bets on Green Bay, lots of BIG bets on Chicago. There is no way to play this game but to take the points. Chicago +3 (I will wait till almost game time as I expect game day money to push this line)
One situation I have been very profitable with is playing on AFC teams getting points on the road vs the NFC. I think there is a huge disparity in the conferences across the board. The good teams in the AFC are better than the good teams from the NFC, the bad teams from the AFC are better than the bad teams from the NFC. Where I think the biggest difference is though is in the middle...middle of the pack, borderline playoff-type teams in the AFC are much better than the NFC. Last year AFC inter-confernece road dogs were 11-4 ATS, I am almost sure I played them all. This year so far they are 3-0. You should already know my play....the Jets. First of all, they fit the same do-or-die scenario as the Bears. They are 1-3 and have a shot to turn their year around, but it must start this week. They made the playoffs last year, so they have the heart and skill to make it happen. From a public perception viewpoint these 2 teams couldn't be headed in more opposite directions. Giants absolutely mauled the Eagles with their pass rush and physical play. The Jets lost to the frigging Bills...the Bills? Are you kidding me? This is almsot like a division rival game, so I automatically like the dog in those games. The Giants have been very bad as favs lately, again I can't quote a trend, but I know they are money-burners as chalk. The Giants blasted the Eagles on national TV and now only need to do what Buffalo did. Surely if Buffalo can beat the Jets by 3 the Giants can do them 1 better and win by 4, right? The early money sure thinks so as 86% are taking the G-Men. You know what Im doing... NY Jets +3.5
The Bills are on the longest pre-bye week losing streak, dropping eight straight games, while going 1-6-1 ATS. The under has also hit five in a row. Buffalo hosts Dallas in this spot on 10/8.
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Buffalo ( pre-bye week record )
Straight Up: 6-11 35% (#27 of 32)
ATS: 6-10 38% (#28 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 6-11 35% (#29 of 32)
The Bills are on the longest pre-bye week losing streak, dropping eight straight games, while going 1-6-1 ATS. The under has also hit five in a row. Buffalo hosts Dallas in this spot on 10/8.
Analysis: one theory with the DC/TO is that it is best when the DC/TO prediction sides with the same team but at a higher points margin from the actual line (eg the overlay). The theory is that with the straight drive stats projection it tells you which team is statistically the better bet against the spread, but when the team has accomplished that AND had the worst of it on the turnovers to that point it's a double plus.
Favor: Tampa Bay +10
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Week Five
Drive Chart Stats
OFFENSE
Play
Dyds
TOP
TD
FG
Punt
T/O
Pts
TB
5.6
30
2:42
22%
15%
47%
10%
24.2
IND
6.2
41
3:05
36%
23%
31%
5%
39.4
DEFENSE
Play
Dyds
TOP
TD
FG
Punt
T/O
Pts
TB
4.2
26
2:49
11%
6%
48%
18%
12.2
IND
4.7
32
3:15
16%
16%
36%
25%
20.0
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
Tampa Bay Indianapolis
19 26
11 6
Analysis: one theory with the DC/TO is that it is best when the DC/TO prediction sides with the same team but at a higher points margin from the actual line (eg the overlay). The theory is that with the straight drive stats projection it tells you which team is statistically the better bet against the spread, but when the team has accomplished that AND had the worst of it on the turnovers to that point it's a double plus.
to a + week
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