Quote Originally Posted by cr8zyc8nuck:
Maybe this will answer your question:
Dallas: 2-12 ATS off a win by 28+ points
"Bet against a team that has won and covered back to back games and scored 30 or more in each game while allowing 14 or less in each game AFTER Week 1."
according to Trilex ...system would now be 7-2 ATS since 1998
lost with New England on MNF
in addition I featured this on MNF >>>>
This is provided by winning Picks and states the following :
Teams that win by a margin of greater than 20 points for 2 consecutive weeks and find themselves a Road Favs the third week will not cover the spread at a rate of 90 % ...since 1996
These teams often lose the game outright ...
This situation usually happens at an average of about 2 to 3 times a year ...
The last time a team won two consecutive weeks by a margin of greater than 20 points and ended up covering the third week against the spread was in 2001 with the St Louis Rams .
Not having checked the numbers , but going with the assumption
that this occurs then on average 2 to 3 times a year ( as they stated ) ....since 1996
we would have between 22 and 33 such games ...
If we use the medium of 27 ...and apply the conservative percentage of under 90 % ...then we would have >>>
Teams that have won 2 consecutive games by over 20 points , and are Road Favs are 6 - 21 ATS last 27 ...since 1996
conversely ...
Home Dogs are 21-6 ATS ( 77.8 % ) vs opponents off 2 consecutive wins of > 20 points since 1996
This is an estimate .....
Based on this : Play on cincinnati + the points
That was a loss ....and play still stands for this following MNF game ....numbers to be adjusted of course...
if anyone has specific numbers on this....highly appreciated
jk
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