Posted:
#51
thanks
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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 5
Posted:
#52
For those looking at the Chiefs/Jags game:
CHIEFS AS HOME DOG:
just 4 ATS losses in 15 games as home dog since 2000
15-5-1 ATS as home dog since 1996
8-2 L10 as home dog
6-1 L7 as home dog
have won STRAIGHT UP last 4 straight games at home as a dog
5-0 as a short-line (>/=2) home dog---they also won all 5 SU
ON THE OTHER SIDE--THE JAGS ARE:
5-13 as RF since 2000
2-6 L8 as RF
3-8 L11 as RF
lost 4 straight ATS as RF---3 of the 4 they also lost SU
i really liked the chiefs (and played them at +2 and small ML) and that was before digging up the above trends. great spot for them as i ALWAYS play a home dog coming off a SU win as a road dog the prior week. HUGE extra motivation factor. That particular situation has come up 4 times this year and is 100%. it is also above 75% as system play over the past several years.
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Posted:
#53
Roberto,not trying to change your mind,but something to consider for games like SD//Denv that are close to even. Instead of looking ATS, maybe you should be looking at SU results. Denver has been devalued of late and is not laying the points that caused their recent ATS losses. I concede that Chargers were road warriors LY, but there is a reason they're 0-2 on the road to date.
Luv your stuff and look forward to it each week. Thanx for all the hard work.
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Posted:
#55
BUFFALO
A DD Home Dog always looks appetizing to me... and after 2 blowout losses on the road as DD dogs, BUF looks even better to me.
Since '87, BUF has been a 10+ Dog a total of 12 times, including 2x this season:
They are 2-10 SU... 5-6-1 ATS.
In 5 of the 12 games, they scored 10 or less points and went 1-4 ATS.
In the other 7 games, they scored more than 10 pts and went 4-2-1 ATS.
They were the HOME Dog in only 1 of the 12 games... which they won both SU and ATS.
This week will be only the second time in 20 years that they've been a HOME Dog of 10+ pts.
Add: BUF 24-7 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
____________________
DALLAS has been playing phenomenol.... 151 pts in 4 wks! That's a season pace of 642... 86 pts over the season points record of 556. They should come down to earth a little soon shouldn't they?... and with a home game vs the PATS next week.
Who have they played?
DAL 4-0....combined record of opponents is 3-13
STL 0-4; CHI 1-3; MIA 0-4; NYG 2-2 (and NYG were within 3 pts of DAL in the 4th quarter of that game).
BUF 1-3... combined record of opponents 10-6
NYJ 1-3; NE 4-0; PIT 3-1; DEN 2-2
(from RFiory) DALLAS is 4-14 ATS ( 22.2 % ) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
... altho this may go to 11 or more by gametime.
Not easy to go against a raging team like DAL but I'll do it: BUFFALO
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Posted:
#59
Trend pick of the Week record 9-1 ( 5-1 regular season NFL 2007-2008 season
Last Week's trend lost with Minnesota
No disrespect but how many times are you going to lose with Diego before you realize recent trends on Diego are out the window ... Marty is gone, Marty ball is gone. Marty provides bettors very predictable outcomes, his teams are great as a home dog, but horrible as a home favorite due to his conservative don't turn it over style when he is expected to win, ie. home playoff record is terrible, etc. But he is gone and so are the recent trends for this team.
Diego may cover but I don't see how you can make Diego your trend pick when there are no relevant trends to rely on...Diego has not covered a spread on the road yet right?
They just got punked by KC, etc
I enjoy your posts but have to disagree with you on this one...
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by BUCKFUDDY:
Trend pick of the Week record 9-1 ( 5-1 regular season NFL 2007-2008 season
Last Week's trend lost with Minnesota
No disrespect but how many times are you going to lose with Diego before you realize recent trends on Diego are out the window ... Marty is gone, Marty ball is gone. Marty provides bettors very predictable outcomes, his teams are great as a home dog, but horrible as a home favorite due to his conservative don't turn it over style when he is expected to win, ie. home playoff record is terrible, etc. But he is gone and so are the recent trends for this team.
Diego may cover but I don't see how you can make Diego your trend pick when there are no relevant trends to rely on...Diego has not covered a spread on the road yet right?
They just got punked by KC, etc
I enjoy your posts but have to disagree with you on this one...
I don't think you noticed , but this is primarily a trend play against Denver !
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Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by JACK55:
ROBERTO, I HAVE THE NY GIANTS -3.5 that I took on Monday, and Its in a Parlay of a 5 teamer, I have allready won the other 4, And all I need is the Giants to complete the Parlay, Do you think I should Hedge? Or you think the giants have a chance thanks?
ROBERTO, I HAVE THE NY GIANTS -3.5 that I took on Monday, and Its in a Parlay of a 5 teamer, I have allready won the other 4, And all I need is the Giants to complete the Parlay, Do you think I should Hedge? Or you think the giants have a chance thanks?
Of course they have a chance ....
I don't particularly like NY Giants record at home when favorite >>> 2-6 ATS when favorite ...
I don't particularly like the line @ - 3.5
And I don't consider the NY Giants to have any Home field advantage here.
The quarterback play has been better for Chad Pennington than for Eli Manning ...as Chad is completing over 70 % of his passes even if he can't throw the deep ball ...and he has a quarterback rating of over 100 ...Eli is struggling with a percentage under 60 % and a QB rating of around 80 ...
I also like the way the NY Jets have bounced back after an ATS loss ...Check these numbers out >>>>
Jets are 9-0 ATS after an ATS loss !
This may be an AFC team over an NFC team which I always favor when in doubt ....,
but The NY Jets statistically really stink ...ranked @ 28th in the league in both offense and defense categories .
NY Giant's defense played extremely well last week against the same team that scored 56 points a week earlier only allowing 3 points and registering 12 sacks ...so that's encouraging ....
Let's put it this way ....It would not surprise me if the NY Giants win by 3 and you lose your parlay bet ...given how gritty the Jets can be ....
but , I'm not a big fan of hedging parlay bets ( it dillutes your winnings ) ...unless there is new evidence that had it been available to you prior to you making that selection in your parlay would have made you not to take that team in first place ....
If that is the case ...then hedge ...if not ....Don't ....
I hope that helps ....
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Posted:
#62
Ok ....I have to add these strong trends .....
Remember that in this thread ...there is information to help make your own picks ....
The Trend Pick of the Week ....is made to track its success or failure throughout the year .....
Here is what I have >>>>>
In this series >> Carolina - New Orleans
The Road team is 11-0 ATS last 11
******************************************************
Arizona is 10-1 ATS in last 11 games overall
( minimized by the fact that the Underdog in the Arizona - St Louis series is 7-0 ATS last 7
*********************************************************************
NY Jets are 9-0 ATS following an ATS loss
*************************************************************
I tell you what ...I may have picked New Orleans , but that 11-0 ATS is probably one of the strongest single trends that we have had in awhile ...!
Naturally , this favors Carolina ......
and as far as picking Trend Picks ....what choice do I have ..?
This is very strong !
I have to add Carolina as a Trend Pick .....
so we have 2 >>>>
Carolina
San Diego
Those two are Trend Picks this week ....
***********************************************************
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by dogplaya:
For those looking at the Chiefs/Jags game:
CHIEFS AS HOME DOG:
just 4 ATS losses in 15 games as home dog since 2000
15-5-1 ATS as home dog since 1996
8-2 L10 as home dog
6-1 L7 as home dog
have won STRAIGHT UP last 4 straight games at home as a dog
5-0 as a short-line (>/=2) home dog---they also won all 5 SU
ON THE OTHER SIDE--THE JAGS ARE:
5-13 as RF since 2000
2-6 L8 as RF
3-8 L11 as RF
lost 4 straight ATS as RF---3 of the 4 they also lost SU
i really liked the chiefs (and played them at +2 and small ML) and that was before digging up the above trends. great spot for them as i ALWAYS play a home dog coming off a SU win as a road dog the prior week. HUGE extra motivation factor. That particular situation has come up 4 times this year and is 100%. it is also above 75% as system play over the past several years.
Chiefs as a home dog has always been one of my favorite trends...
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