To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

Van great points and thanks for bringing to light these aspects of gambling that many might not understand. I understand the mathematics and EV that you have noted and you are 100% correct.

However sometimes people just throw a bogus parlay out there for shits and giggles. It might have a chance to hit or it could lose with the 1st or 2nd game in the parlay. I do not play parlays that often but when I do; its for shit pure fun with not much money wagered on them. If the parlay is still alive coming up to the last game I usually hedge it. I know mathematically it is not right but when I am putting $50 or so on a parlay that is paying out over a few grand then I would be stupid in my mind not to hedge. You have said time and time again to just leave the last game off the parlay if you are going to hedge but then then 2nd to last game becomes the last game and so on and so on....

Basically you were saying cut the parlays and just bet straight up cause mathematically that maximizes profit rather than burning your money with parlays.

Wow.  You are an attorney?  In the USA?  Not Pakistan or something?

If you want to effectively hedge the last game, you bet HALF on the 4th game of the parlay.  Jeesh.  If you want to hedge less, you bet less.  Any way you slice it you MAKE MORE MONEY.

Holy shit.  Are you really this stupid?

Vanzack.. I am busting your balls but I can assure you I am a lot smarter and more educated than you my friend.  No need to get personal.  You will not win that battle.  You can calculate that on a TI-81 calculator.

I held you to your words.. you said rolling it ALL on to the next game.  If you bet it ALL and lose, you won ABSOLUTELY ZERO.

I will let this thread speak for itself.

I think you have done a fine job at discrediting your intelligence.

Keep getting in those situations where you have to make the decision to hedge or not.  Its like a dog getting a rash from licking its ass too much, he wonders why it hurts but doesnt get that if he just stops licking his ass the problem goes away.

Vanzack again those who understand the math behind this shit and make the plays with those solid stats behind them will be the longterm winners at this.  Numbers decide everything.

If you wanna be a jacktard like DevilFan and make -EV parlays in the first place and then the 1 in whatever times you are finally looking at a possible winner and hedge out for a LOSS on the money you should have won then do it.  Again this is what defines a recreational gambler vs. those who are trying to truly make money off this.

It is ok to sometimes hedge when the situation has changed or the amount is life changing.  It is still mathematically wrong to do so for the life changing amount but you see why people might do this.

To just parlay shit every week and then hedge out of the 1 in whatever that actually hit is just dumb.  But you are the books favorite players dont forget that.

And Buddy tout or whatever the hell you are arguing about individuality.  WTF???  If the math tells you not to jump off a 20 story building but a few people are trying to be individuals and will do this anyway does that make it fundamentally right?  Love your arguements about the math behind this stuff.  "Well those folks who are actually published authors on the subjects with PhDs don't know shiat.  They just don't know about individuality or something so these people who went to MIT or Ivy League schools got nothin on the Buddy!!"   Then insert joke about a reacharound to change the subject plus lots of these to make it look funny. 



The above makes anything funny online just in case you didn't know.


The bottom line is if you like guaranteed money then place that shit into a savings account earning 5% a year, because saying "I like guaranteed money" in the same sentence or paragraph arguing about gambling and sports betting is retarded.  DUCY??  If not, DEE DEE DEE.

Those go to people like Vanzack and myself who aren't tarded.

Nothing against you either KOAJ because you understand what Vanzack means about the math.

Those who are ignorant like Devil Fan are the clowns, I mean preferred customers of the books.

No that is YOUR definition of individuality and just further empasizes obsessive reliance in my earlier statement.

I believe van has an undue obsessive reliance on derivative materials or established dogmatics that has caused him to openly criticize originality and become totally bias against any unique individuality.

 

Parlays in the last week of the NFL between the 1 and 4pm games are good, where there is going to be a better chance of getting a different line on the same game.

Hedging that bet makes sense. Otherwise, hedging is not the right thing to do mathmatically.

Tough to not take that 'guareenteed' money on your original bet, but it is the right thing to do.

Just read this thread and Van is dead on.

Listen vanzack, the point of a parlay is so that you don't risk as much to win big. That is why we include all the best options(so we think) regardless of what time the games are played.

The options you have listed:
Option 2:  Bet a 3 team parlay at 6-1, bet all proceeds straight up on Monday team.  Bet 100, win 1,336.

I agree, in this case you would win more. But you would also be risking more as well.

DevilFan with how big of a dumbass you come off as I highly doubt you bet $1600 last week on sports.

You can be a Billionaire born into money and I could be poor as hell.  That has nothing to do with whether you are a rich dumbass or not? 

Again your arguments are nothing but a my dick is bigger than your dick contest.  You are to fucking stupid to sit here and discuss the reasons why doing this one way or the other will earn you more money over time.  Congrats on earning $10K sportsbetting or whatever for example.  While your dumbass earned $10K people like myself and Vanzack earned $14K because we weren't ignorant to how to MAXIMIZE PROFITS.   DEE DEE DEE.  MY COCK IS BIGGER THAN YOUR COCK!@!!!!!

DUCY you are tarded?  Probably not because you are too busy playing parlays to later hedge out of.

Vanzack,

I think you are totally correct.  The one caveat I would say is the volatility factor - that is if someone risked losing their bankroll (or draining it to some tiny amount) and being out of action if some parlay didn't hit, then I can understand paying a premium to stay in action (assuming you see a positive EV for yourself going forward).
If people followed Kelly, that would never be the case tho, and you're pt then is 100% right. 

In my opinion, part of the problem is people place artificial constraints (did I win money today, this week etc.) when betting is really endless and you cannot squander solid +EV situations just to avoid stomaching some add'l short-term fluctutation (and nausea).

 

VAN, JUST GIVE IT UP MEN!

YOU CANT TALK SENSES IN STUPID PEOPLE!

THATS WHY WE HAVE LOSERS AND WINNERS IN GAMBLING WORLD!

And yeah I was wagering more last summer on MOVIES OPENING WEEKENDS than your dumbass was wagering on Sports DevilFan.  Hahaha you have nothing on me you ass clown.  I had $100K + in wagers on Pinny in the first 6 months last year alone on just Movies.  + wagers on sites The Greek, WSEX, Matchbook, Intertops and more on silly props alone.  Congrats on probably risking your whole $16K roll last weekend.  Oh wait you didn't risk it all, you were hedging in game!!!

Brendan.. you arent reading or understanding... I never said hedging was making me more money.  Find one place where I said that.  My position is that if I can hedge and guarantee myself money, I will usually do it.  Also, I said I wagered 16K last saturday, not last week.  Learn to fuckin read will ya.