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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    There is only one matchup you really need to worry about on SB Sunday: Fat Andy v Skinny Kyle

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    begginerboy
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    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:09 AM ET #1

    It was the 80's. My family had just immigrated to the States. I was sitting on the living room floor of our one bedroom apartment in Southern California flipping through channels on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Some caught my attention. I was mesmerized. It was American Football. Something I had seen often but never paid much attention to because I was raised on soccer and basketball. But this game was different than any I had seen before. One team, the Niners, looked like ballerinas in pads, gracefully moving in unison, as if they were one body performing an intricate dance to a melody only they could hear, while their opponents, the Rams, all disjointed, moved as if traversing through mud, battling gravity itself to get from point A to point B. I had no idea who Bill Walsh or Joe Montana were on that day, but my young mind somehow recognized the genius that was responsible for transforming the game of football, a brutish game played by brutish men, into an art as sublime as any I had seen. Despite all the praise heaped upon Bellecheat over the years, I had not seen genius like this, or been mesmerized by the game of football, until a year ago, when the Niners lost Jimmy G for the season and Shanahan was forced to use all his wiles and wits to keep the team competitive. That is when I began seeing a brand of football I had never seen before: one which relied on movement, precision, timing, and camelflage to not just unleash, but magnify and accentuate, the raw power and speed of the players executing the plays. It was, and is, a sight to behold. There are very few coaches in the history of the game that have transformed the way the game is played: Kyle Shanahan is one of them. 

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    It was the 80's. My family had just immigrated to the States. I was sitting on the living room floor of our one bedroom apartment in Southern California flipping through channels on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Some caught my attention. I was mesmerized. It was American Football. Something I had seen often but never paid much attention to because I was raised on soccer and basketball. But this game was different than any I had seen before. One team, the Niners, looked like ballerinas in pads, gracefully moving in unison, as if they were one body performing an intricate dance to a melody only they could hear, while their opponents, the Rams, all disjointed, moved as if traversing through mud, battling gravity itself to get from point A to point B. I had no idea who Bill Walsh or Joe Montana were on that day, but my young mind somehow recognized the genius that was responsible for transforming the game of football, a brutish game played by brutish men, into an art as sublime as any I had seen. Despite all the praise heaped upon Bellecheat over the years, I had not seen genius like this, or been mesmerized by the game of football, until a year ago, when the Niners lost Jimmy G for the season and Shanahan was forced to use all his wiles and wits to keep the team competitive. That is when I began seeing a brand of football I had never seen before: one which relied on movement, precision, timing, and camelflage to not just unleash, but magnify and accentuate, the raw power and speed of the players executing the plays. It was, and is, a sight to behold. There are very few coaches in the history of the game that have transformed the way the game is played: Kyle Shanahan is one of them. 

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:14 AM ET #2

    But the man is not all brain. He is also full of passion. He is as competitive as any coach I have seen in my lifetime. After losing the SB, and being blamed for that loss because his team could not effectively run the ball, he designed one of the most devastating running games anyone has ever seen. Not with an all-world running back mind you, but with a bunch of second-stringers and castoffs that no one had heard of before. During the playoffs, as if to say, "you don't think I can run ball? watch this!" his team ran the ball 75% of the time, making a mockery of not only the opponents but also the game itself by playing a brand of football that had not been played in 50 years! Who knows, maybe for the SB he will take us back a 100 years! Regardless, the man has the memory of an elephant:


     With nearly two weeks to build hype and answer reporters’ questions ahead of Super Bowl LIV with the Kansas City Chiefs, Shanahan is astute enough to know that his last trip will be scrutinized, criticized and analyzed. He still shrugs off critics who simplified the 2016 Falcons’ collapse by saying he should have run the ball more to protect a 28-3 lead. 

    “The whole narrative of, ‘If I just would have ran it, we would have won,’ I know that wasn’t the case,” Shanahan said. “I know what went into that game, all the stuff that happened.” 

    Running the ball has keyed his 49ers’ path to a Feb. 2 date for the Lombardi Trophy. The 49ers churned out an astounding 89 carries on 119 snaps. They’ve ran for 471 yards, including 105 from Tevin Coleman in their playoff opener against Minnesota and a franchise-record 220 from Raheem Mostert in Sunday’s 37-20 NFC Championship win over Green Bay.

    “The coach who DID NOT RUN THE BALL in the third/fourth quarters of Super Bowl 51 is taking his team to Super Bowl 54 by … Running the ball,” wrote Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Mark Bradley. 

    Monday’s day-after press conference meant it was time for Shanahan to again recite what led to the Falcons infamously blowing a 28-3 lead and losing Super Bowl LI to the New England Patriots 34-28 in overtime.

    Let’s let Shanahan have the mic from here on out to state his case:

    “The days after (losing) are really tough. Losing a Super Bowl is extremely tough for everybody, especially when you lose with a 28-3 lead going into the fourth (quarter).

    “The way it came down on me, personally, I didn’t react to that the way people expect. There were definitely parts in that Super Bowl I’d love to have back and stuff I was very hard on myself.

    “But the whole narrative of, ‘If I just would have ran it, we would have won,’ I know that wasn’t the case. I know what went into that game, all the stuff that happened.

    “That stuff didn’t bother me. You have to deal with that, listening to other people. But it was nice to be able to move on, move out here, keep working and I’m glad we’ve got a chance to go back.

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    But the man is not all brain. He is also full of passion. He is as competitive as any coach I have seen in my lifetime. After losing the SB, and being blamed for that loss because his team could not effectively run the ball, he designed one of the most devastating running games anyone has ever seen. Not with an all-world running back mind you, but with a bunch of second-stringers and castoffs that no one had heard of before. During the playoffs, as if to say, "you don't think I can run ball? watch this!" his team ran the ball 75% of the time, making a mockery of not only the opponents but also the game itself by playing a brand of football that had not been played in 50 years! Who knows, maybe for the SB he will take us back a 100 years! Regardless, the man has the memory of an elephant:


     With nearly two weeks to build hype and answer reporters’ questions ahead of Super Bowl LIV with the Kansas City Chiefs, Shanahan is astute enough to know that his last trip will be scrutinized, criticized and analyzed. He still shrugs off critics who simplified the 2016 Falcons’ collapse by saying he should have run the ball more to protect a 28-3 lead. 

    “The whole narrative of, ‘If I just would have ran it, we would have won,’ I know that wasn’t the case,” Shanahan said. “I know what went into that game, all the stuff that happened.” 

    Running the ball has keyed his 49ers’ path to a Feb. 2 date for the Lombardi Trophy. The 49ers churned out an astounding 89 carries on 119 snaps. They’ve ran for 471 yards, including 105 from Tevin Coleman in their playoff opener against Minnesota and a franchise-record 220 from Raheem Mostert in Sunday’s 37-20 NFC Championship win over Green Bay.

    “The coach who DID NOT RUN THE BALL in the third/fourth quarters of Super Bowl 51 is taking his team to Super Bowl 54 by … Running the ball,” wrote Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Mark Bradley. 

    Monday’s day-after press conference meant it was time for Shanahan to again recite what led to the Falcons infamously blowing a 28-3 lead and losing Super Bowl LI to the New England Patriots 34-28 in overtime.

    Let’s let Shanahan have the mic from here on out to state his case:

    “The days after (losing) are really tough. Losing a Super Bowl is extremely tough for everybody, especially when you lose with a 28-3 lead going into the fourth (quarter).

    “The way it came down on me, personally, I didn’t react to that the way people expect. There were definitely parts in that Super Bowl I’d love to have back and stuff I was very hard on myself.

    “But the whole narrative of, ‘If I just would have ran it, we would have won,’ I know that wasn’t the case. I know what went into that game, all the stuff that happened.

    “That stuff didn’t bother me. You have to deal with that, listening to other people. But it was nice to be able to move on, move out here, keep working and I’m glad we’ve got a chance to go back.

     
    begginerboy
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:16 AM ET #3

    The play I regretted the most was, when we got down there, we hadn’t converted a third down really the entire second half and were averaging 1 yard a carry (actually 2 yards). When you do that, the formula to give the ball back to someone is go run-run-pass, because you’re going to make it third-and-7, at best, every single time, and when you’re not converting third downs, that makes it tough.

    “We did mix it up a little bit. We actually ran it more the second half than the first half (actually 9 carries each). But the other team was 34-of-38, converted all their third downs, couldn’t get the ball. Finally they got within a score, we got it back, and got pretty aggressive to get it down there.

    “It was a second-and-(11). Called a pass (with 3:56 to go, at the Patriots 23, 3:56 remaining). Last time down there, I called a second-and-10 called a run, got a 2-yard loss and a holding call that put us out of field-goal range. This time I went the opposite, tried to get a play to Julio (Jones), they played a different coverage, I didn’t get the call I wanted so I didn’t like the call. I was hoping we could just get rid of it, but they had a pretty good rush and got a sack.

    “Once that happened I knew we had to throw, because now we were out of field-goal range. Threw it the next down to (Mohammad) Sanu, ran a choice route breaking out, moved the chains, but they called a holding call on our left tackle, so that put us way back and we had to throw to get back into it and we missed it.

    “I wish I didn’t call that play on second-and-11 that led to that sack.

    “I thought I did a pretty good job that year (as a play caller). We had a historic offense in Atlanta and did a lot of good things. As a play caller, you’re just as good as your last game. You learn stuff from everything. People act like it was a bunch of big learning moments in that game. I wish I hadn’t called a pass on second-and-10, but the learning moments never feel good. 

    “That’s why I promise you when we’re way up in the fourth quarter (Sunday) on Green Bay, I promise you I know what 28 minus 3 is, and a 25-point lead in the fourth quarter isn’t enough. 

    “When we have a 14-point lead with eight minutes to go against Green Bay, I can promise you I feel from experience that the game is tied and we don’t have a two-score lead. That’s the stuff that helps you. 

    “People can tend to relax. I won’t say I ever relaxed in that Super Bowl, especially with Tom Brady having that ball. But that’s something that keeps you humble in every single moment until the game is over.”

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    The play I regretted the most was, when we got down there, we hadn’t converted a third down really the entire second half and were averaging 1 yard a carry (actually 2 yards). When you do that, the formula to give the ball back to someone is go run-run-pass, because you’re going to make it third-and-7, at best, every single time, and when you’re not converting third downs, that makes it tough.

    “We did mix it up a little bit. We actually ran it more the second half than the first half (actually 9 carries each). But the other team was 34-of-38, converted all their third downs, couldn’t get the ball. Finally they got within a score, we got it back, and got pretty aggressive to get it down there.

    “It was a second-and-(11). Called a pass (with 3:56 to go, at the Patriots 23, 3:56 remaining). Last time down there, I called a second-and-10 called a run, got a 2-yard loss and a holding call that put us out of field-goal range. This time I went the opposite, tried to get a play to Julio (Jones), they played a different coverage, I didn’t get the call I wanted so I didn’t like the call. I was hoping we could just get rid of it, but they had a pretty good rush and got a sack.

    “Once that happened I knew we had to throw, because now we were out of field-goal range. Threw it the next down to (Mohammad) Sanu, ran a choice route breaking out, moved the chains, but they called a holding call on our left tackle, so that put us way back and we had to throw to get back into it and we missed it.

    “I wish I didn’t call that play on second-and-11 that led to that sack.

    “I thought I did a pretty good job that year (as a play caller). We had a historic offense in Atlanta and did a lot of good things. As a play caller, you’re just as good as your last game. You learn stuff from everything. People act like it was a bunch of big learning moments in that game. I wish I hadn’t called a pass on second-and-10, but the learning moments never feel good. 

    “That’s why I promise you when we’re way up in the fourth quarter (Sunday) on Green Bay, I promise you I know what 28 minus 3 is, and a 25-point lead in the fourth quarter isn’t enough. 

    “When we have a 14-point lead with eight minutes to go against Green Bay, I can promise you I feel from experience that the game is tied and we don’t have a two-score lead. That’s the stuff that helps you. 

    “People can tend to relax. I won’t say I ever relaxed in that Super Bowl, especially with Tom Brady having that ball. But that’s something that keeps you humble in every single moment until the game is over.”

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:17 AM ET #4

    Obviously, Shanahan has thought long and hard about that loss, which, despite his protestations, is eating at him to this day. Not only do we see the effect of that loss, which turned him into the best play-caller and play-designer in football, on the way he coaches but also in the way he motivates his men. In his pre-game speech to his team before the NFC championship game, he reminded them of the importance of "finishing the job" by telling them a gruesome, harrowing real-life war story:


    SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Kyle Shanahan admitted to everyone in the room on Saturday that the story he was going to tell, based on what a Navy SEAL had relayed to him, wasn’t PG. But football’s a game played in dark places, and this one worked for his 49ers.

    The soldier was explaining combat, and he emphasized that finishing the job might mean drowning an enemy who was scratching and clawing and fighting for his life. It meant, in the soldier’s words, beating back all resistance, and holding his head under water until “the last bubble” was gone.

    Because of the nature of the story, the San Francisco players who heard it hesitated to go into detail on it. But they understood what Shanahan was trying to get across loud and clear—even if people on the outside might find it weird.

    “It was a little dark, but he got the message across,” said tailback Raheem Mostert. The story was relevant because it related to how the 49ers crushed their NFC title game opponent, the Packers, in late November by a 37–8 score, and how Aaron Rodgers had gotten his team back above water and to Levi’s Stadium for a rematch. To San Francisco, the task was clear: finish the job.

    The story is revealing in that it shows Shanahan's single mindedness in rectifying his past mistakes and redeeming himself by winning the ultimate prize.  

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    Obviously, Shanahan has thought long and hard about that loss, which, despite his protestations, is eating at him to this day. Not only do we see the effect of that loss, which turned him into the best play-caller and play-designer in football, on the way he coaches but also in the way he motivates his men. In his pre-game speech to his team before the NFC championship game, he reminded them of the importance of "finishing the job" by telling them a gruesome, harrowing real-life war story:


    SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Kyle Shanahan admitted to everyone in the room on Saturday that the story he was going to tell, based on what a Navy SEAL had relayed to him, wasn’t PG. But football’s a game played in dark places, and this one worked for his 49ers.

    The soldier was explaining combat, and he emphasized that finishing the job might mean drowning an enemy who was scratching and clawing and fighting for his life. It meant, in the soldier’s words, beating back all resistance, and holding his head under water until “the last bubble” was gone.

    Because of the nature of the story, the San Francisco players who heard it hesitated to go into detail on it. But they understood what Shanahan was trying to get across loud and clear—even if people on the outside might find it weird.

    “It was a little dark, but he got the message across,” said tailback Raheem Mostert. The story was relevant because it related to how the 49ers crushed their NFC title game opponent, the Packers, in late November by a 37–8 score, and how Aaron Rodgers had gotten his team back above water and to Levi’s Stadium for a rematch. To San Francisco, the task was clear: finish the job.

    The story is revealing in that it shows Shanahan's single mindedness in rectifying his past mistakes and redeeming himself by winning the ultimate prize.  

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:21 AM ET #5

    “But what about fat Andy," you say? "Isn't he equally brilliant?" "Doesn't he want to redeem himself?" "Isn't he equally hungry?" For a cheeseburger, maybe. Which is, in fact, what fat Andy rewarded himself with after winning the AFC championship game: a cheeseburger:

    https://fox4kc.com/2020/01/20/live-from-arrowhead-andy-reid-celebrates-victory-monday-looks-ahead-to-super-bowl/

    Truth be told, fat Andy has gotten so accustomed to his all-world QB pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat, and bailing him out, that he has gotten lazy. If the two playoff games were any indication of how Andy prepares his team these days, the chiefs prospects are not that good. The lackadaisical starts, the mistakes, the penalties, and turnovers might not cost you a game against the likes of the Texans and Bill OBrien or a tired, jaded Titans team playing its heart out despite running on fumes, but a well rested, healthy, buttoned up, professional outfit like the Niners, with a brilliant coach like Shanahan, who understands the kind of performance his team will have to give to take home the trophy, any misstep by the chiefs can cost them the game. You may think Andy has shaken the label of chocker in big games, but who has he beaten? And how many mistakes did his team get away with because they were playing lesser opponents? Meanwhile, Shanahan has barely tipped his hand. He has won two games without revealing all, or even most, of his cards. This is a big advantage. In fact, Shanahan matching wits against Spagnuolo is the biggest mismatch of this Super Bowl. The Niners, as they demonstrated throughout out the year, are capable of winning in a multitude of ways. They can win in a shootout. They can grind you down and beat you late. They can jump on top early and coast for the win. Just when you think they’ll come out running they throw on every down. And when they have set up the pass so thoroughly that you don’t expect anything else, they gash your defense with big run plays. Over the course of the game, they not only exhaust their opponents physically but also mentally (which might be even more advantageous). It’s pick your poison when it comes to the Niners, and Shanahan administers it as expertly as Dr. Jack Kevorkian does to his soon-to-be deceased patients:


    It will be interesting," Juszczyk said. "They've got two weeks to break down our offense and how we run the ball, but you know we really haven't shown too much in the passing game the past two weeks for them to really study what we have in store for them. I'm excited to see what Kyle's game plan is, and I think we can surprise people with how well we move the ball. I feel like people have already forgotten all the games when Jimmy has thrown for 400 yards and four touchdowns and all that stuff. People tend to forget pretty quickly."

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    “But what about fat Andy," you say? "Isn't he equally brilliant?" "Doesn't he want to redeem himself?" "Isn't he equally hungry?" For a cheeseburger, maybe. Which is, in fact, what fat Andy rewarded himself with after winning the AFC championship game: a cheeseburger:

    https://fox4kc.com/2020/01/20/live-from-arrowhead-andy-reid-celebrates-victory-monday-looks-ahead-to-super-bowl/

    Truth be told, fat Andy has gotten so accustomed to his all-world QB pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat, and bailing him out, that he has gotten lazy. If the two playoff games were any indication of how Andy prepares his team these days, the chiefs prospects are not that good. The lackadaisical starts, the mistakes, the penalties, and turnovers might not cost you a game against the likes of the Texans and Bill OBrien or a tired, jaded Titans team playing its heart out despite running on fumes, but a well rested, healthy, buttoned up, professional outfit like the Niners, with a brilliant coach like Shanahan, who understands the kind of performance his team will have to give to take home the trophy, any misstep by the chiefs can cost them the game. You may think Andy has shaken the label of chocker in big games, but who has he beaten? And how many mistakes did his team get away with because they were playing lesser opponents? Meanwhile, Shanahan has barely tipped his hand. He has won two games without revealing all, or even most, of his cards. This is a big advantage. In fact, Shanahan matching wits against Spagnuolo is the biggest mismatch of this Super Bowl. The Niners, as they demonstrated throughout out the year, are capable of winning in a multitude of ways. They can win in a shootout. They can grind you down and beat you late. They can jump on top early and coast for the win. Just when you think they’ll come out running they throw on every down. And when they have set up the pass so thoroughly that you don’t expect anything else, they gash your defense with big run plays. Over the course of the game, they not only exhaust their opponents physically but also mentally (which might be even more advantageous). It’s pick your poison when it comes to the Niners, and Shanahan administers it as expertly as Dr. Jack Kevorkian does to his soon-to-be deceased patients:


    It will be interesting," Juszczyk said. "They've got two weeks to break down our offense and how we run the ball, but you know we really haven't shown too much in the passing game the past two weeks for them to really study what we have in store for them. I'm excited to see what Kyle's game plan is, and I think we can surprise people with how well we move the ball. I feel like people have already forgotten all the games when Jimmy has thrown for 400 yards and four touchdowns and all that stuff. People tend to forget pretty quickly."

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:22 AM ET #6

    Of course, people will argue that despite all his shortcomings fat Andy still has the best player on the field, and perhaps, when all is said and done, one of the best ever to play the position of QB. But having the best QB, even a future legend for that matter, does not guarantee a Super Bowl win. In fact, the big game is littered with all-time-greats who came up short: Elway, Kelly, Brady, Manning, Marino, Favre, and the list goes on. Yes, there is always the possibility that Mahomes will make an incredible play or two that would demoralize most teams. But this Niners team is not like most teams. They are made in the image of their coach: tough, smart, resilient and indomitable.


    Finally, when comparing these two coaches (fat Andy and skinny Kyle) and watching their demeanor on the sidelines, I'm reminded of Caesar's famous speech from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar:


    Caesar:

    Let me have men about me that are fat,

    Sleek-headed men and such as sleep a-nights.

    Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look,

    He thinks too much; such men are dangerous.

    He reads much.

    He is a great observer, and he looks

    Quite through the deeds of men. He loves no plays,

    As thou dost, Antony. He hears no music.

    Seldom he smiles, and smiles in such a sort

    As if he mocked himself and scorned his spirit.


    Indeed, if young Shanahan is as dangerous a man as Cassius was to Caesar, then he will go home with the Lombardi Trophy on SB Sunday.


    Niners +1.5 for 10 units


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    Of course, people will argue that despite all his shortcomings fat Andy still has the best player on the field, and perhaps, when all is said and done, one of the best ever to play the position of QB. But having the best QB, even a future legend for that matter, does not guarantee a Super Bowl win. In fact, the big game is littered with all-time-greats who came up short: Elway, Kelly, Brady, Manning, Marino, Favre, and the list goes on. Yes, there is always the possibility that Mahomes will make an incredible play or two that would demoralize most teams. But this Niners team is not like most teams. They are made in the image of their coach: tough, smart, resilient and indomitable.


    Finally, when comparing these two coaches (fat Andy and skinny Kyle) and watching their demeanor on the sidelines, I'm reminded of Caesar's famous speech from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar:


    Caesar:

    Let me have men about me that are fat,

    Sleek-headed men and such as sleep a-nights.

    Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look,

    He thinks too much; such men are dangerous.

    He reads much.

    He is a great observer, and he looks

    Quite through the deeds of men. He loves no plays,

    As thou dost, Antony. He hears no music.

    Seldom he smiles, and smiles in such a sort

    As if he mocked himself and scorned his spirit.


    Indeed, if young Shanahan is as dangerous a man as Cassius was to Caesar, then he will go home with the Lombardi Trophy on SB Sunday.


    Niners +1.5 for 10 units


     
    sheeshmack101
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 5:39 AM ET #7

    Numerous long useless posts
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    Numerous long useless posts
     
    FRESH1014
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 5:50 AM ET #8

    Andy Will Put It In Your Rear End.
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    Andy Will Put It In Your Rear End.
     
    CASTORTROY
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 8:23 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by FRESH1014:

    Andy Will Put It In Your Rear End.

    Andy is who he is. An underachiever who left a minimum of 2 Lombardi trophy’s on the table and picked up the ham sandwich instead. 

    You got one thing right FRESH. Andy will put it in your rear when you bet on him. 

    Niners in a very comfortable win!!

    Great write up BB!
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    Quote Originally Posted by FRESH1014:

    Andy Will Put It In Your Rear End.

    Andy is who he is. An underachiever who left a minimum of 2 Lombardi trophy’s on the table and picked up the ham sandwich instead. 

    You got one thing right FRESH. Andy will put it in your rear when you bet on him. 

    Niners in a very comfortable win!!

    Great write up BB!
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 9:34 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Thanks for the post BB. Question, your post has tremendous amount of confidence and belief, which is awesome. I love when I feel that way about a bet. Last week was boring for me because I mostly sat on my hands.  Just some tease action and a couple small futures to monitor.

    So the question is, why didn't you bet the ML?  peace_5

     


    Same thought here. But to each is own. I'd never pay 10% tax on such a big investment(maybe he got -105?) when +105 is available. If SF losses by exactly 1 point then bravo.

    Enjoyed the read BB. Wish you the best of luck. If I do end up playing this game I won't be spending more than 1 unit on any side or total. I think the lines are tight as can be and I think the game will play tight as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Thanks for the post BB. Question, your post has tremendous amount of confidence and belief, which is awesome. I love when I feel that way about a bet. Last week was boring for me because I mostly sat on my hands.  Just some tease action and a couple small futures to monitor.

    So the question is, why didn't you bet the ML?  peace_5

     


    Same thought here. But to each is own. I'd never pay 10% tax on such a big investment(maybe he got -105?) when +105 is available. If SF losses by exactly 1 point then bravo.

    Enjoyed the read BB. Wish you the best of luck. If I do end up playing this game I won't be spending more than 1 unit on any side or total. I think the lines are tight as can be and I think the game will play tight as well.

     
    flatballs
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 9:41 AM ET #11

    Skinny cat here... never listen to the bums...it took a lot of thought and energy for your write ups... one of my fave capper told me... someone is always on the other side.,.  GL  
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    Skinny cat here... never listen to the bums...it took a lot of thought and energy for your write ups... one of my fave capper told me... someone is always on the other side.,.  GL  
     
    Cooler999
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 9:53 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by sheeshmack101:

    Numerous long useless posts

    More useless than yours?
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    Quote Originally Posted by sheeshmack101:

    Numerous long useless posts

    More useless than yours?
     
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 11:03 AM ET #13

    Excellent Write up 

    San Francisco makes sense to me ...In my opinion the only way they lose is if the WWE wants them to .....

    Best of luck Brother
    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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    Excellent Write up 

    San Francisco makes sense to me ...In my opinion the only way they lose is if the WWE wants them to .....

    Best of luck Brother
     
    stoidi
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 12:17 PM ET #14

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach.

    LMAO.

    How did that one turn out for Mcvay?

    I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ]

    Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]

     

    Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.  

    CHIEFS -1.5 BIG

     

     

     

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    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach.

    LMAO.

    How did that one turn out for Mcvay?

    I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ]

    Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]

     

    Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.  

    CHIEFS -1.5 BIG

     

     

     

     
    Maukaboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 12:25 PM ET #15

    Lol
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    Lol
     
    Ikid2groove035
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 12:27 PM ET #16

    49ers -14.5 +570 peace_5

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    49ers -14.5 +570 peace_5

     
    wmi799
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 1:36 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by stoidi:

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach. LMAO. How did that one turn out for Mcvay? I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ] Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]   Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.   CHIEFS -1.5 BIG
    Then if you have under $50k on KC you are a pusssy. 

    Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoidi:

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach. LMAO. How did that one turn out for Mcvay? I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ] Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]   Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.   CHIEFS -1.5 BIG
    Then if you have under $50k on KC you are a pusssy. 

     
    Digitalkarma
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 2:00 PM ET #18

    lol Jack Kervokian.. Kyle does have that killer smile.. 

    sick writeup BB! you have a way with words my friend. you should be a columnist and write for SI.  

    GL to your team 
    Sip on that plus money honey!
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    lol Jack Kervokian.. Kyle does have that killer smile.. 

    sick writeup BB! you have a way with words my friend. you should be a columnist and write for SI.  

    GL to your team 
     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 2:27 PM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:

    49ers -14.5 +570

    Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by double digits.... 0

    Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by more than 7 points.... 0

    Niners -3.5 is +180 or so.... 

    You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:

    49ers -14.5 +570

    Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by double digits.... 0

    Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by more than 7 points.... 0

    Niners -3.5 is +180 or so.... 

     
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 2:43 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by stoidi:

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach. LMAO. How did that one turn out for Mcvay? I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ] Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]   Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.   CHIEFS -1.5 BIG

    Did Andy Reid go and win 6 Super Bowls while I wasn't looking...??? 

    I'd re-phrase your second to last sentence to say he is the second best "regular season" coach.  documented choke artist in the playoffs, who has never come up big in any Conf Championship or SB, yet.  He got gifted the Texans and Titans to get a free ticket to Miami this year.  Never got it done b4 that.

     

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoidi:

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach. LMAO. How did that one turn out for Mcvay? I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ] Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]   Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.   CHIEFS -1.5 BIG

    Did Andy Reid go and win 6 Super Bowls while I wasn't looking...??? 

    I'd re-phrase your second to last sentence to say he is the second best "regular season" coach.  documented choke artist in the playoffs, who has never come up big in any Conf Championship or SB, yet.  He got gifted the Texans and Titans to get a free ticket to Miami this year.  Never got it done b4 that.

     

     
    chic-cardinals
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:10 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:

    49ers -14.5 +570
    Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by double digits.... 0 Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by more than 7 points.... 0 Niners -3.5 is +180 or so....

    Things are always/most  of the time, doubles up in the SB.  The extreme  always happens. 

    Mahomes has no experience  in the a SB. He is 24. He is the QB. the odds are not in his favor, being the younger QB of the two.  

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:

    49ers -14.5 +570
    Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by double digits.... 0 Number of nfl career games Mahomes has lost by more than 7 points.... 0 Niners -3.5 is +180 or so....

    Things are always/most  of the time, doubles up in the SB.  The extreme  always happens. 

    Mahomes has no experience  in the a SB. He is 24. He is the QB. the odds are not in his favor, being the younger QB of the two.  

     

     
    lancer89074
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:21 PM ET #22

    I enjoyed the read BB...your writing style is reminiscent of my all time favorite sports' writer Jim Murray.

    Your use of the Shakespeare quote was quite good...your appraisal of Reid was a bit short shrift and unduly harsh and unfair IMO.

    In all fairness, Reid has made contributions of his own to the modern day aerial juggernaut, attack style so prevalent in the NFL. In spite of his weight problem, Andy has worked his whole career at his profession and has earned the respect of his players and peers.

    To reduce him to preferring a burger or ham sandwich in lieu of creating a good game plan is a stretch and doesn't fly at least with me. Even the best of coaches can only do so much but one thing a coach cannot do is to get too cute or complicated when victory is clearly in sight. 

    I read carefully Shanahan's explanation of his late 4th quarter drive in the Atlanta/New England superbowl...his ego keeps him from stating the obvious...which is 'I blew it'. Three kneel downs and a field goal would have won the day...but Kyle instead wanted to show off how his passing offense was second to none and so brilliant he could beat the great Bill Belichick in front of God and everyone.

    In life, we all make mistakes and most of us not on such a grand scale on center stage for all the world to see. 

    Shanahan has the 'smartest guy in the room' approach and often these guys are their own worst enemy. In fairness to Kyle, he has done a hell of a great job in creating a high caliber team in such a short time. A victory in this game would be his salvation and redemption. 

    Was bad coaching or a poor game plan the reason that Reid's Eagles lost that superbowl to the Pats? lMO they lost due to poor play at the quarterback position. The moment is just too big for some guys and who can come up big in big games? Sometimes superstars fall short in high profile games...happens a lot. 

    Chuck Noll the day before the superbowls would remind his players that the team that blocks better and tackles better will win the game. Even his great teams were uptight and nervous prior to these games and knowing this he gave them this simple message to allay their fears. 

    Hey, who doesn't like a good burger or ham sandwich, and yes I could stand to lose a few pounds myself. an_2drinks

    All in all a great writeup BB...thumbs_up

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    I enjoyed the read BB...your writing style is reminiscent of my all time favorite sports' writer Jim Murray.

    Your use of the Shakespeare quote was quite good...your appraisal of Reid was a bit short shrift and unduly harsh and unfair IMO.

    In all fairness, Reid has made contributions of his own to the modern day aerial juggernaut, attack style so prevalent in the NFL. In spite of his weight problem, Andy has worked his whole career at his profession and has earned the respect of his players and peers.

    To reduce him to preferring a burger or ham sandwich in lieu of creating a good game plan is a stretch and doesn't fly at least with me. Even the best of coaches can only do so much but one thing a coach cannot do is to get too cute or complicated when victory is clearly in sight. 

    I read carefully Shanahan's explanation of his late 4th quarter drive in the Atlanta/New England superbowl...his ego keeps him from stating the obvious...which is 'I blew it'. Three kneel downs and a field goal would have won the day...but Kyle instead wanted to show off how his passing offense was second to none and so brilliant he could beat the great Bill Belichick in front of God and everyone.

    In life, we all make mistakes and most of us not on such a grand scale on center stage for all the world to see. 

    Shanahan has the 'smartest guy in the room' approach and often these guys are their own worst enemy. In fairness to Kyle, he has done a hell of a great job in creating a high caliber team in such a short time. A victory in this game would be his salvation and redemption. 

    Was bad coaching or a poor game plan the reason that Reid's Eagles lost that superbowl to the Pats? lMO they lost due to poor play at the quarterback position. The moment is just too big for some guys and who can come up big in big games? Sometimes superstars fall short in high profile games...happens a lot. 

    Chuck Noll the day before the superbowls would remind his players that the team that blocks better and tackles better will win the game. Even his great teams were uptight and nervous prior to these games and knowing this he gave them this simple message to allay their fears. 

    Hey, who doesn't like a good burger or ham sandwich, and yes I could stand to lose a few pounds myself. an_2drinks

    All in all a great writeup BB...thumbs_up

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:31 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Thanks for the post BB. Question, your post has tremendous amount of confidence and belief, which is awesome. I love when I feel that way about a bet. Last week was boring for me because I mostly sat on my hands.  Just some tease action and a couple small futures to monitor.

    So the question is, why didn't you bet the ML?  peace_5



    Thanks for the response, uncle. A couple of reasons:

    1) Like you I trust the books more than myself, and they expect this to be a close game. I heard on the radio the other day that when the odds-makers have set a line below 3.5 for the SB those games have usually come down to the wire. Seattle v Denver obviously did not, and the dog won outright, but other than that I believe the information I heard is correct. Also, both championship games were kind of duds, as were the divisional games (except the first half of texans/chiefs and the second half of GB/Seattle) and I'm worried that the NFL may have saved the best for last.

    2) Like Shanahan I too have the memory of an elephant. In 2016 I lost a grand on the Lions when I took the ML instead of grabbing the +1.5 points in a game they lost to Dallas 42-41. That one really hurt, and I have not forgotten the sting. 

    3) the SB is not a regular game or even a playoff game. It is an event! And fluky things happen; like your starting center going on an all night bender and failing to show up for the biggest game of his life:) Or the the lights going out at halftime and killing all your momentum:) Or a team losing 28-3 in the 4th and coming back to win the game:) All this to say, nothing would surprise me (including a last second one point miracle win by the Chiefs) because the unexpected is the norm for this event/game, so why not grab the points at low juice -105?

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Thanks for the post BB. Question, your post has tremendous amount of confidence and belief, which is awesome. I love when I feel that way about a bet. Last week was boring for me because I mostly sat on my hands.  Just some tease action and a couple small futures to monitor.

    So the question is, why didn't you bet the ML?  peace_5



    Thanks for the response, uncle. A couple of reasons:

    1) Like you I trust the books more than myself, and they expect this to be a close game. I heard on the radio the other day that when the odds-makers have set a line below 3.5 for the SB those games have usually come down to the wire. Seattle v Denver obviously did not, and the dog won outright, but other than that I believe the information I heard is correct. Also, both championship games were kind of duds, as were the divisional games (except the first half of texans/chiefs and the second half of GB/Seattle) and I'm worried that the NFL may have saved the best for last.

    2) Like Shanahan I too have the memory of an elephant. In 2016 I lost a grand on the Lions when I took the ML instead of grabbing the +1.5 points in a game they lost to Dallas 42-41. That one really hurt, and I have not forgotten the sting. 

    3) the SB is not a regular game or even a playoff game. It is an event! And fluky things happen; like your starting center going on an all night bender and failing to show up for the biggest game of his life:) Or the the lights going out at halftime and killing all your momentum:) Or a team losing 28-3 in the 4th and coming back to win the game:) All this to say, nothing would surprise me (including a last second one point miracle win by the Chiefs) because the unexpected is the norm for this event/game, so why not grab the points at low juice -105?

     

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:42 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

    I enjoyed the read BB...your writing style is reminiscent of my all time favorite sports' writer Jim Murray.

    Your use of the Shakespeare quote was quite good...your appraisal of Reid was a bit short shrift and unduly harsh and unfair IMO.

    In all fairness, Reid has made contributions of his own to the modern day aerial juggernaut, attack style so prevalent in the NFL. In spite of his weight problem, Andy has worked his whole career at his profession and has earned the respect of his players and peers.

    To reduce him to preferring a burger or ham sandwich in lieu of creating a good game plan is a stretch and doesn't fly at least with me. Even the best of coaches can only do so much but one thing a coach cannot do is to get too cute or complicated when victory is clearly in sight. 

    I read carefully Shanahan's explanation of his late 4th quarter drive in the Atlanta/New England superbowl...his ego keeps him from stating the obvious...which is 'I blew it'. Three kneel downs and a field goal would have won the day...but Kyle instead wanted to show off how his passing offense was second to none and so brilliant he could beat the great Bill Belichick in front of God and everyone.

    In life, we all make mistakes and most of us not on such a grand scale on center stage for all the world to see. 

    Shanahan has the 'smartest guy in the room' approach and often these guys are their own worst enemy. In fairness to Kyle, he has done a hell of a great job in creating a high caliber team in such a short time. A victory in this game would be his salvation and redemption. 

    Was bad coaching or a poor game plan the reason that Reid's Eagles lost that superbowl to the Pats? lMO they lost due to poor play at the quarterback position. The moment is just too big for some guys and who can come up big in big games? Sometimes superstars fall short in high profile games...happens a lot. 

    Chuck Noll the day before the superbowls would remind his players that the team that blocks better and tackles better will win the game. Even his great teams were uptight and nervous prior to these games and knowing this he gave them this simple message to allay their fears. 

    Hey, who doesn't like a good burger or ham sandwich, and yes I could stand to lose a few pounds myself. an_2drinks

    All in all a great writeup BB...thumbs_up



    Beautiful response, Lancer, I appreciate you taking the time and pushing back on my write up (it is helpful for KC backers to get a more balanced picture). As anyone who has read Julius Caesar knows, Cassius, Like Shany, also has the smartest guy in the room syndrome, but he actually ends up being right, whereas Brutus, the other know-it-all with the same syndrome, ends up being dead wrong. So yes, that might be Shany's fatal flaw, but if it is it is the only one. Reid, on the other hand, who is a great coach in his own right has more flaws than I can count on one hand, which is why I give the edge here to Shanahan. Yes, I reduced him to a caricature of himself, but I needed straw man for my argument and he fit the bill, in more ways than one.
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    Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

    I enjoyed the read BB...your writing style is reminiscent of my all time favorite sports' writer Jim Murray.

    Your use of the Shakespeare quote was quite good...your appraisal of Reid was a bit short shrift and unduly harsh and unfair IMO.

    In all fairness, Reid has made contributions of his own to the modern day aerial juggernaut, attack style so prevalent in the NFL. In spite of his weight problem, Andy has worked his whole career at his profession and has earned the respect of his players and peers.

    To reduce him to preferring a burger or ham sandwich in lieu of creating a good game plan is a stretch and doesn't fly at least with me. Even the best of coaches can only do so much but one thing a coach cannot do is to get too cute or complicated when victory is clearly in sight. 

    I read carefully Shanahan's explanation of his late 4th quarter drive in the Atlanta/New England superbowl...his ego keeps him from stating the obvious...which is 'I blew it'. Three kneel downs and a field goal would have won the day...but Kyle instead wanted to show off how his passing offense was second to none and so brilliant he could beat the great Bill Belichick in front of God and everyone.

    In life, we all make mistakes and most of us not on such a grand scale on center stage for all the world to see. 

    Shanahan has the 'smartest guy in the room' approach and often these guys are their own worst enemy. In fairness to Kyle, he has done a hell of a great job in creating a high caliber team in such a short time. A victory in this game would be his salvation and redemption. 

    Was bad coaching or a poor game plan the reason that Reid's Eagles lost that superbowl to the Pats? lMO they lost due to poor play at the quarterback position. The moment is just too big for some guys and who can come up big in big games? Sometimes superstars fall short in high profile games...happens a lot. 

    Chuck Noll the day before the superbowls would remind his players that the team that blocks better and tackles better will win the game. Even his great teams were uptight and nervous prior to these games and knowing this he gave them this simple message to allay their fears. 

    Hey, who doesn't like a good burger or ham sandwich, and yes I could stand to lose a few pounds myself. an_2drinks

    All in all a great writeup BB...thumbs_up



    Beautiful response, Lancer, I appreciate you taking the time and pushing back on my write up (it is helpful for KC backers to get a more balanced picture). As anyone who has read Julius Caesar knows, Cassius, Like Shany, also has the smartest guy in the room syndrome, but he actually ends up being right, whereas Brutus, the other know-it-all with the same syndrome, ends up being dead wrong. So yes, that might be Shany's fatal flaw, but if it is it is the only one. Reid, on the other hand, who is a great coach in his own right has more flaws than I can count on one hand, which is why I give the edge here to Shanahan. Yes, I reduced him to a caricature of himself, but I needed straw man for my argument and he fit the bill, in more ways than one.
     
     
    getem9
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2020 - 3:45 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:

    Quote Originally Posted by stoidi:

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach. LMAO. How did that one turn out for Mcvay? I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ] Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]   Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.   CHIEFS -1.5 BIG
    Did Andy Reid go and win 6 Super Bowls while I wasn't looking...???  I'd re-phrase your second to last sentence to say he is the second best "regular season" coach.  documented choke artist in the playoffs, who has never come up big in any Conf Championship or SB, yet.  He got gifted the Texans and Titans to get a free ticket to Miami this year.  Never got it done b4 that.


    Please explain how he was “gifted” these wins?  If you are implying those two teams were trash and he had the easy road then you might want to re check your metrics.  Tennessee was right up there top 5/6 in dvoa after Tanny took the reigns.  Vikes were there as well but the Packers were out of the top 15 as was Houston.  
    If not and you’re saying he was “gifted” these wins by the NFL then I would look in the mirror and ask yourself “if they gifted Andy here are they not going to gift him his first W?”  an_popcorn

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    Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:

    Quote Originally Posted by stoidi:

    It's like you Niner Homers dont remember last years Superbowl of a HOF veteran coach vs the latest young "genius" coach. LMAO. How did that one turn out for Mcvay? I mean the similarities are striking really.  System offense ran by young coach with an overrated system QB who struggles when everything isnt going according to the script that daddy coach has game planned.  [ Goff = Jimmy G ] Then you have a HOF Clutch asf QB who thrives when it all falls apart, teamed up with his HOF veteran coach who is easily the second best coach in the league.  [ Brady = Mahomes ]   Simply put 49ers have zero shot of winning this game.   CHIEFS -1.5 BIG
    Did Andy Reid go and win 6 Super Bowls while I wasn't looking...???  I'd re-phrase your second to last sentence to say he is the second best "regular season" coach.  documented choke artist in the playoffs, who has never come up big in any Conf Championship or SB, yet.  He got gifted the Texans and Titans to get a free ticket to Miami this year.  Never got it done b4 that.


    Please explain how he was “gifted” these wins?  If you are implying those two teams were trash and he had the easy road then you might want to re check your metrics.  Tennessee was right up there top 5/6 in dvoa after Tanny took the reigns.  Vikes were there as well but the Packers were out of the top 15 as was Houston.  
    If not and you’re saying he was “gifted” these wins by the NFL then I would look in the mirror and ask yourself “if they gifted Andy here are they not going to gift him his first W?”  an_popcorn

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