Quote Originally Posted by SportingLife510:
Gawd, you people go back and forth on here like school girls. And not even sexy school girls. Both schools of thought are right. For one, football is about matchup, styles, schemes, coaching styles, ect. and knowing how these things interact and play out. So called cappers who say they don't even have to watch games boggle the mind. It's ridiculous. However there is value in knowing how to read the public and line moves. One of the first things I learned about capping as a boy, and it has stuck with me until now, is that when oddsmakers set a line, they're not saying that this team is x amount of points better than that team. They are saying, "we think the public thinks this team is x amount of points better." Or not better. They just want to split the action 50/50 so they can take their juice and run. We all know this. And knowing this can lead to some very lucrative action based solely on knowing what the public things is wrong. Or based on the fact that, say, an oddsmaker has to set a line lower or higher than it should be to counteract a team with a large fan base that are gonna bet on them regardless. As a diehard cowboys fan, I point to week 17's Dallas vs. Washington game. Anybody in their right mind knows Washington should have easily been -6.5 but they were +3. I never bet against my team but if I did I would have bet the farm on Washington, and won. And that bet would have been based solely on knowing the size of Dallas' fan base and how it plays into the lines oddsmakers set. Good cappers consider all things, from if a left tackle is prone to false starts to if things, not football related, may be affecting a line. We need to stop arguing and bickering in these forums and start winning each other money.
The books are not looking for 50/50 money. Many think they know this but we don't actually think about the complexity of the situation in order to understand why this is not possible always without leaving yourself VERY exposed as the book.
Not going to keep doing this to the thread, so sorry if people don't appreciate this part of the discussion, but I will just ask a couple of questions...
If say the Michael Jordan Bulls are playing the 2016 LA Lakers, and mathematically the books calculate that the 50/50 mark for the likelihood of the outcome falls on +15. At this number perhaps 70% of the public will look to back the Bulls @ -110 with a 50% chance of winning. So if what you say is true, that number will keep climbing until exactly half of the money is on both sides. Lets say for this example that number is 18.5. Now we are 10 minutes until tip off and 50% of the money is on each side. Now bear in mind that in terms of mathematical probabilty the underdog has a 60% chance of winning (made this up for example) and the favorite has a 40% chance.
1. Why would the book feel confident that in the final ten minutes, when the line has finally hit 18.5, a boat load of money isn't going to pour in on the underdog and put the majority of the money on the side with a 60% chance of winning? They are very exposed in this position.
2. Why would the book not prefer leaving the majority of the money (say 56%) on a side that has say a 45% chance of winning, giving only a 55% edge mathematically to the other side (offers less of an edge to the "sharp") by setting the line at maybe 16.5? This way they are protected later, because even late money will only balance things further, and second of all if things don't balance they have the mathematical edge on their side and will win over time.
So tell me, given this example, why would a book prefer EVEN money on both sides if they could have slightly more money on a worse bet, while giving the experienced bettor a much smaller edge? If your answer is because it is less risk for the books you are wrong, it is more risky because the money coming in is not stagnant they are vulnerable to late action and once the game starts it freezes. They are also giving a HUGE edge to one side. If you are still hooked on the risk idea, then you need to understand probabilty. As long as most of the money is on a -EV wager the book is protected over time. This is how casinos operate virtually risk free.
My only point is that the line contains valuable information, and as long as you are thinking the line is used just to attract 50/50 money then you will misinterpret the information...
Suuma, interested info on AJ McCarron, definitely a tricky game in many ways
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