The proof of 2015: Why you will have longterm success when capping the fundamentals of this game

I wanted to open this thread because we had these discussions several times this season.

Week in, week out a lot of people say capping matchups or crunching numbers doesn't matter, you just need to read into the lines and their movement and read what some consensus sites tell you.

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/statistics/2015-2016/ats_regular.html

Of the best 10 ATS teams, 9 have made the playoffs. The only team, the Jets, still ended up 10-6.

These best 10 ATS teams went 62.5% ATS.

Good teams make the playoffs. They make the playoffs because they have the better matchup in the majority of their games.

If you are able to cap matchups, spots and know how to deal with numbers, you will have success.

98% of the guys who use the words "public", "sharps", "squares", "trap", "rigged", "fixed" don't have a good, consistent and documented winning record. They pop up here and there, crying about a fix and the "public bloodbath", but none of them provides us with pregame picks and a solid record. That's a fact.

But I can right away tell you a decent number of cappers who hit 55-70% consistently on NFL & CFB year in year out who just cap the games and never use some bullsh*t angles like public vs. sharps.

You can track back all the games in which the "public" is all over one side. It evens out in the long run.

I've had a very rough season, because I watched too much pre-season and was blinded at the beginning of the season. Then I wasn't able to see some transitions during the season. It happens. I've learned some important lessons this season.

If someone disagrees on what I've just said, please attach your documented record and post some links of your threads.

Personally I have really enjoyed reading your write ups this year, and have used them to educate myself about a game I have only been following for a few years.
Thanks for what you do, I really appreciate it.
wishing you all the best for the playoffs and I look forward to reading your write ups again next season.

To think that the NFL isn't rigged is laughable.

There's a difference in believing there is a fix, and knowing where the fix is.

None of us have the script.

All we can try is predict what the writers had intended. Every story has a subliminal message. In the same way, every game has a fix that 99.99% of us cannot predict.

If you want proof and my record:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101943177&page=3

30-9 record half way through NFL 2014-15

Since then I've shut shop because capping those games were literally exhausting me out physically and mentally. I could not sleep, I could not eat or drink, I had to skip work because I was so focused on capping games.

Then I suddenly realized this was killing me. So I've turned into a troll and here I am today.

Hard to have a discussion regarding this Summa

I had to laugh. Not because of your comment or your opinion but because of the huge discrepancy in our way of thinking. If you are successful, I don't say anything and you might be within the 2%.

I didn't bet the game so it's hard to make a case after the final whistle. But here is my take:

I never thought about the line setting in this game. The line was fine for me because the Vikes were on a roll and the Packers won at Minny so my opinion was the line was set right to get 50/50 action.

I would have NEVER bet the Packers yesterday. I have several leans each week on every game, some stronger some initial and one of them was the Vikes. There was not a single way I could have come up with a play on the Packers. It was Vikes or no bet for me. Like I will tell you now and several cappers on here:

The Vikes had the favorable matchup in the trenches and overall with their defense against the Packers offense. The banged up offensive line of the Packers got crushed last week by blitzes and the Cardinals secondary was good enough to not get beat 1on1 by these GB receivers. It's the same kind of style this healthy Vikes defense has been playing (Last time vs. GB they were banged up). Good pass rush with several blitzing schemes combined with a good secondary which makes it hard for the Packers to move the ball.

I respect you and your opinion a lot, even though I don't agree very often. But if you say the Vikes weren't the right side from a matchup-standpoint, you don't watch many Football games or atleast haven't watched last week's Packers/Cards game.

@FadeOrDie...

After the first replay I said "it wasn't a catch". If you read the rule book, you have to agree that it wasn't a catch. And I had the over in that game and I wasn't mad. His fault was to reach the goalline, so he was still in the catching-process.

Several referee experts agreed ?!

Well said Suma .........

I believe you need to have a good understanding of how teams approach football strategy and the way each team is going to attack a particular opponent.  A lot of people ignore over/unders claiming they're difficult to pinpoint or are too unpredictable.  They may be hard to get right but I believe there's a strong correlation with the over/under and the realistic prospect of a team covering the spread. 

I was only 132-117-5 for over/unders this year on Covers, good for 53%.  I went 140-112-3 for ATS on Covers, good for 55%.  Although I wasn't as good at over/unders, I feel that they helped me overall when it came to picking for the season.  Also, you can't ignore that some of these games come down to the last possession, which isn't something you can really cap and ends up being random/lucky.

Naesiy makes a good point.  There are lines that appear strange or incongruous with what basic perception would dictate.  I'm probably not as good at him as spotting them but occasionally I can tell if a line looks fishy.

Suuma....I enjoy every post and all the research.  You invest your money only after you have researched all angles.  There is many around here that play handicapping bingo based on gut, public play, etc.

Happy New Year to you.  I KNOW 2016 will be profitable for you.  I would contribute more to the research and commentary but, I am knee deep in family, coaching, and a 55 hours a week job.

I don't track my record and I don't bet now quantities of money often but here is my take. someone mentioned sway in this blog as oppose to fix does this happen? Absolutely and small calls here and there can certainly sway a game. So the answer is yes it's swayed and yes good capping in the long run can pay off handsomely but let's face it a small return on your investment when you really look at the money you made. They have already caught a NBA ref so let's not discuss whether corruption exists within games. I try to avoid both Sunday and Monday night football and this alone will help you not get fucked as much. I'm more of an NBA capper and o didn't want to bet football but I clicked on the NBA lines and if was slim picking first quarter lines the Miami game didn't even come up. It was as if subliminally they want you to bet what every one is watching Sunday night football. In conclusion both exist but you have to cap well to have a chance at winning be very diligent and careful I typed this with my phone please excuse grammatical mistakes.