The proof of 2015: Why you will have longterm success when capping the fundamentals of this game

I used to have an excel sheet for every season, tracking every game, over, under, first half, second half, trends, etc ... one year, I have a 10 week winning streak posted here on Covers (but it is no longer here). Not any more, I can't no longer afford the time nor the energy to do so.

Nice post, Suuma. Had to stop reading the replies and rest of the discussion pretty quickly though. Ignorance pretty quickly turned the thread into something different.

Wouldn't you LOVE to be a fly on the wall watching Billy Walters go through his progressions as he hones into the games he's going to bet 250,000 on.

Regarding "trap" line set by Vegas to fool bettors because they know what the outcomes will be...

Lines come out Sun 7-8 PM EST before SNF and MNF games, including for the 4 teams playing those 2 games.  This mean that Vegas will tell the teams/coaches/players/referees/etc what to do for games a week from now, just hours after this week day-games.  I also just find it almost implausible that 5-6 guys who set the lines control a multi-billion industry like this.

The NFL makes ~$7.3 billions in 2014.  Vegas makes $33.6 millions from Oct and this is with one of their best month ever and that's from all sports, not just NFL.  They make ~$800+ millions from other parts (slots/table games).  Does this make any business sense what so ever to fix games with the miniscule profit and risk the other 97%+ of the business?

https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=442166
https://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2015/07/21/tv-deals-boost-nfl-revenue-to-new-record/

zamingo post 48 might be the most intelligent and best post i have ever seen written on covers. 99% of the readers wont get it but you have hit the nail on the head. that is far too clever a post for this site lol

the answer to SHORT term success (4 game outlook). Bet the hawks!

FOR THE LAST TIME.

WHEN WE REFER TO VEGAS - IT ENCOMPASSES:
- LAS VEGAS
- OVERSEAS
- ONLINE
- LOCAL
- ETC.

Stop talking how sports betting is only a small percentage of Las Vegas' total profits.
Sports betting is a trillion dollar industry. America only makes up 20% of world's gambling population (rest being Asia and Europe).

Atlanta struggling mightily, losing game after game after game, looking horrendous and inept in the process, getting smoked like the biggest doobie on earth by the Panthers the previous two meeting by a score of 72-3, at 14-0, opens at -7 in Atlanta...

And, Cooler999, I would love to be the fly on the wall. To my knowledge, Billy Walters and a select few associates continue to set the lines. He has been involved for decades. You are correct, and this was a great thread to digest. Good work everyone

Math 101 - Las Vegas sports books make 33.6 mil from all sports, let's say 80% of that is from NFL,27 mil. NFL and Vegas are in co-hoot so they split evenly, 13,5 mil.

Profit from all other venues of casinos, 800 mil.  In other words, they're going to risk 98.5% of their profit and fix games on the 1.5% business.  In what universe does this make sense for LV, NV casinos to do this???

Don't know if you're referring to spotting it after a game but if you are...  My issue is people cherry pick an occurence to prove game is fixed.  Perfect example of this is the Kirk Cousin kneel-down.  If there ever was a "shady" play, that is it.  Yet, there's no 100+ threads crying fix.  Why? BC the play didn't effect the outcome.  My point is athletes/refs make dumb plays/calls all the time (they're human), but one only conveniently points it out as fixes when it fits their theories.

Suuma, I love your style and your approach.  Logic always prevails even during tough years.  In the long run you will be a winner.  Having said that, I would like to ask you to open a thread that reads Suuma's point of view and taking NO opinions.  You can also start threads asking for opinions like this one.  It would simply be less exhausting to people like me looking to get your POV before I make MY call.  When I make MY call I don't have to look for blame from others who gave me their opinion.  Having said that I therefore can just look for the thread of your point of view and not have to read through these exhausting insults and idiotic comments.  This is not to be critical of those not agreeing with you and stating logical angles why, I am referring to the morons that want to make totally illogical spastic comments.  Anyway, I realize this is probably asking to much but it would be greatly appreciated by those that simply want to only hear YOUR opinion.

Suuma, I thought the lines on the KC/Hou and GB/Wash game came in where I thought they would.  Sea/Minn line opened scary low.  I have capped Sea 9 to 10 pts lbetter than Minny less the 3 pts at home it should have opened at 6.5-7.  Same with Cinn/Pitt as I capped yhe game as a pick with AJ at QB so with home field I was expecting Cincy -3.  So major value on Sea and Cincy IMO.  In the Wash game I think GB offensively is a mess and Wash comes in playing well with a lot of confidence.  Can't see GB hanging with them.  Finally, I see no value on the KC game.  I lean KC because I don't see Hou being able to move the ball on that tough KC defense.  However, I think Alex Smith will have similar issues moving the ball on Houston.  No apparent match up advantages that I can see.  This game can go either way.  Therefore, load up on Wash and Sea.  Small wager on Cincy and pass the KC game.

Ask yourself if the books would rather have more at stake to professional bettors or to Joe Blow. If the professionals win, what is the likelihood the books get that money back? What if Joe Blow wins? If 98% of bettors are losers then even if Joe Blow wins chances are the books get that money back so who really cares if they win? The books are setting lines to beat the people who won't give them their money back. 70% of Joe Blows on NE -3 means nothing to the books if the professionals would kill them with the dog +4. That line isn't -3 to bait Joe Blow. It's -3 so they don't get beat by the pros. 50/50 is laughable.

Interesting thread. Suuma do you agree that if you cap every game by using prior statistics Vegas always knows exactly where you're at? Do you think that's for better or worse in the long run? Im truly interested to hear your theory here. Is there really never a time where you cap a game and think to yourself...well i have the seahawks at 12 points better than the vikings but with the exception of week 16 the seahawks have been easy money down the stretch and there's no way the public doesnt load up on these guys at -6. Vegas usually wins in these situations. Figure out what level vegas was on when they made the spread and cap from one level above never below. Panthers were +140 to go undedeated when they were 13-0. They had three games left. The giants were the only one that people thought they could lose so you know theyre coming to play for that one. Beating tampa when you're 15-0 to go undefeated is almost a lock. That left us with atlanta getting 7 at home against a panthers team that beat them 38-0 two weeks before. You could never in a million years cap that game and land on atlanta but it was quite possibly the easiest bet of the entire nfl season if you understand vegas and how and why they make these lines the way they do. Falcons money line got bet down all week by people who cap lines because they realized exactly what was going on. The key at the end of the day is to figure out which games you need to cap lines for and which games you need to cap straight up. Try not to fall into one category and use recent trends to put yourself in vegas' shoes to figure out where they have you pegged at. Its all about levels. As far as people winning at 70% year in and year out i can tell you that is absolutely not possible. 80% in one season is more possible than 70% over a 10-20 year span it's just never going to happen and if it does its not a result of skill. Bol

Suuma - Excellent thread brothahman 

Watched AJ all throughout the Bama years and people here are putting waaaaaay too much trust in this guy.

I can't comprehend the ignorance of people not acknowledging the existence of "the fix". It's just about being cognacient of the widespread epidemic of sports gambling across the world. Think of the impact ad it has infiltrated the MLB, NBA, NFL and other sports organizations. Just know it's happening and that we only pickup the obvious ones. Enough of that.

Scal, you know I will be the first one who admits being wrong, but I think you are underestimating AJ McCarron. He is no downgrade from Andy Dalton. He would be the starter on 10 NFL teams right away.

6.4%
6.03 NYPPA
6TD
2INT

Vs. Steelers without preparing
Vs. a SF defense that made Rodgers, Palmer look like average at home
Vs. the #1 defense on the road (a first half I've never seen by any QB at Denver recently)
Vs. the Ravens who finally played some defense vs. PIT and CIN

If you think Red Rifle choked L4 playoff games, this is the time to bet on the Bengals. This is the best Bengals team ever against a Steelers team that lacks their most important aspect of their offense: Le'Veon Bell and now De'Angelo Williams. The key is to get the run game going to get ABrown and Martavis Bryant in 1on1 coverage to let Ben beat them their men.

Ben has 21TD 16INT this season, it's pretty obvious they aren't the same w/o Le'Veon Bell. He is a whole new dimension to this offense and the #2 scoring defense won't need to stack the box, they can show us some more nickle looks and double ABrown. This secondary is deep.

My prediction: the Bengals get their first playoff win under Lewis with McCarron at QB and then Andy Dalton will choke at New England when we get the Pats at an inflated line after Bengals beat the Steelers.

To all the others: I've read every comment and appreciate it. But if I now try to respond to many, I waste some capping time. I think this thread is great for the off-season to have further discussions after recapping the season.

66.4% *

Gawd, you people go back and forth on here like school girls. And not even sexy school girls. Both schools of thought are right. For one, football is about matchup, styles, schemes, coaching styles, ect. and knowing how these things interact and play out. So called cappers who say they don't even have to watch games boggle the mind. It's ridiculous. However there is value in knowing how to read the public and line moves. One of the first things I learned about capping as a boy, and it has stuck with me until now, is that when oddsmakers set a line, they're not saying that this team is x amount of points better than that team. They are saying, "we think the public thinks this team is x amount of points better." Or not better. They just want to split the action 50/50 so they can take their juice and run. We all know this. And knowing this can lead to some very lucrative action based solely on knowing what the public things is wrong. Or based on the fact that, say, an oddsmaker has to set a line lower or higher than it should be to counteract a team with a large fan base that are gonna bet on them regardless. As a diehard cowboys fan, I point to week 17's Dallas vs. Washington game. Anybody in their right mind knows Washington should have easily been -6.5 but they were +3. I never bet against my team but if I did I would have bet the farm on Washington, and won. And that bet would have been based solely on knowing the size of Dallas' fan base and how it plays into the lines oddsmakers set. Good cappers consider all things, from if a left tackle is prone to false starts to if things, not football related, may be affecting a line. We need to stop arguing and bickering in these forums and start winning each other money.