Wow, couldn't have asked for a better matchup! A powerful offense going up against a strong defense. This is one of those games where both teams will have ample time to get healthy, rest, watch film, and have plenty of preparation time. Bettors may need to rely on statistical analysis to cap this and make some 
on this game. Below is my two cents on how I see this playing out.....
VARIANCE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON AND PLAYOFFS:
PITT: 23.8ppg offense, 15.3ppg defense = +8.5 variance
GB: 25.16ppg offense, 15.3ppg defense = +9.9 variance
PERFORMANCE IN DOME GAMES:
PITT (1 game): 10ppg offense, 20ppg defense = -10 variance
GB (4 games): 24.75ppg offense, 12.75ppg defense = +12 variance
QB EDGE: NEUTRAL. While Aaron Rodgers IMO is clearly the better pure quarterback and passer, Roethlisberger is a great improviser and makes a lot of plays with his scrambling and the ability to shed tacklers.
RB EDGE: STEELERS. Mendenhall will be the best pure running back on this field.
WR EDGE: NEUTRAL. Both teams have a multitude of WRs capable of making big plays and get open in single coverage. Neither team possesses a dominant shut-down corner the caliber of a Darrelle Revis that can take out the top receiving threat on the other team.
COACHING EDGE: NEUTRAL. While some may make a case for Tomlin having the coaching edge of having been on this stage before and having won, that matchup came against a very overachieving Arizona Cardinals team who had a great offense but had an extremely mediocre defense that happened to gel in the playoffs for a few games. This Packers defense is HEAD ABOVE SHOULDERS better than that Cardinals defense. This is obviously the first championship game Mike McCarthy will coach, but IMO McCarthy has already proven his worth as a head coach by keeping the Packers motivated in an injury riddled season in which they could have easily thrown in the towel. The fact is the Packers remained motivated and gutted through the grueling season and battled so many injuries and so much adversity throughout the season to get here, and then winning three games on the road in the playoffs, the Packers will be beaming with confidence coming into the big game. Dom Capers is also a former Steelers disciple and his experience with the Steelers should certainly play a factor in this one.
INTANGIBLES: PACKERS. The Packers have much more experience playing in a dome than the Steelers do, as each season the Packers play a bare minimum of two games in a dome (Lions, Vikings). This year the Packers had four dome games counting the playoffs and their finesse and speed predicated team will have a distinct advantage over the Steelers more rugged and physical style. I don't think the Steelers will beat up the Packers on the ground all day, as the Packers front four is pretty solid. I can see the Packers spread out the Steelers with their WRs and utilize their speed on offense to have a major advantage over the Steelers defenders. The Packers defense also has enough speed to neutralize the Steelers offensive weapons. THIS WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THIS GAME.
TEAM STRENGTHS: DEFENSE. While many will claim that the Packers strength is their offense, its actually their defense. The Packers had a majority of their offensive weapons in place last year and had a dominant season from an offensive perspective, but its been their defense that has made the difference this year in getting them this far. GB/Arizona playoff game from last year is enough proof the Packers offense kept them in the game, and the defense was their achilles heel. Even though the Packers success relies in the arm of Aaron Rodgers, defense has been the key to the Packers success this year. The Steelers like any year are led by a dominant defense and a strong running game. Big Ben compliments these strengths by playing mistake free football rather than putting up dominant offensive performances.
VEGAS/ODDSMAKER PERSPECTIVE: When setting this line, the #1 objective of the oddsmakers was to generate even action. Making the Packers underdogs would have generated a ton of one-sided action as the Packers are considered to have a more superior offense and most square bettors tend to bet on offensive juggernauts and high profile signal callers like Aaron Rodgers. The game being played in a dome also favors strong offenses like the Packers. It comes as no surprise the Packers are a small favorite. Pittsburgh has a dominant defense which is why this line is not 3 or 3.5 I don't anticipate this line will get past -3 on any sportsbook. 46 is neither a high nor a low total for a game being played in a dome, but suggests that the books are favoring the Packers to control the tempo of this game. Most Steelers games tend to have O/U in the 37-43 point range, whereas most Packers game O/Us tend to be in the 44-48 range.
FINAL CONCLUSION: After looking at all variables, I firmly believe that both teams will rely on what's gotten them to this stage thus far, which has been their defense. The Packers will attempt to use their team speed and experience playing on turf in the dome as a factor against the Steelers. The Steelers will attempt to use their running game to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. While I do not see the Packers running the ball with a great deal of success against the Steelers, I do see them exploiting the Steelers with their team speed, and with regularity. In the end, I do not envision a high scoring affair, and I see the Packers having a slight edge on the Steelers playing in a dome and having a better pure quarterback.
Packers ML - 2 units
Under 46 - 2 unit
Packers and under in 7 point teaser - 2 units
My prediction for this game is somewhere around 23-17 or 24-20 GB victory. GL everyone!! 
Hot Forum Topics
