Staley made the right call!

the decision to call the timeout was genius, but it backfired because they couldnt stop the run. The raiders were planning on running it down to 2-3 seconds on play clock, then run the ball (assumed they get stuffed), and then they were going to run the game clock to 3 seconds for a time expiring walk off 57 yarder (Carlson is an elite fg kicker- he’s the next Tucker was a 4th round pick). They get the 5 seed with a win and a 7 with a tie. They aren’t playing for a tie with an elite fg kicker in a dome who has already hit from high 50s this year.

so back to the timeout, if the raiders ran the ball and got stuffed after the timeout, Staley would have instantly called his final timeout. Why? To prevent the raiders from running the clock down to 3 seconds and kicking a 57 yard game expiring fg. If you call the timeout here with 30 seconds and it’s 4th down the raiders play for the tie. The field goal is no longer a “freeroll” because if you miss it, the chargers have the ball midfield with 30 seconds left and you are 1 15-20 yard pass from missing the playoffs. Obviously they punt it on 4th down with 30 seconds left and chargers kneel it for the tie. 

the media and moronic fans have no clue what they are talking about. Staley made the right call but he can’t explain it to low iq morons in this country because nobody can think. 

But why not just call the timeout AFTER the 3rd down play?  Then the raiders would have had to punt also.

@kingpincarbs

 How do you explain going 4th down on your own 18? He’s a moron, case closed.

@vanzack

 Didn’t he call timeout after 3rd down play? 

@OneWayOut

 Same analytics that cost the KC game as well?  What was it, 4 4th down on KC that cost 12pts on that game

Lets say Staley was playing it perfectly....  Just assume for a second...

With 38 secs left he calls his first timeout because he realizes how important the third and 4 was at the 38 yard line, and he realized the Raiders were 100% going to run and he had a typical pass defense out there for a typical 3rd and 4.

The key is stopping them.  If he stopped them - it would have been very interesting to see if he immediately called the SECOND timeout at about 30 seconds.  That was the one that would have mattered because then the Raiders wouldve been forced to either punt or try a long FG - which if missed wouldve given LA the ball on the 45.

We will never know if he had all of this in mind.

@kingpincarbs

 He did not.

BECAUSE THE RAIDERS GOT THE FIRST DOWN.

There was no point in calling the TO after the third down play because he only had 2 left with 30 seconds.

IF they wouldve stopped the Raiders on 3rd down - THEN YOU CALL THE SECOND TIMEOUT.

@kingpincarbs

 Thank you for someone else finally realizing and acknowledging this. I’ve been posting about this in about 5 other threads.

 Coach says he was content on running the clock down…. Until the timeout

This situation happens often at the end of the first half.

A team has the ball around the 50, on a running clock with less than 30 seconds and 3rd or 4th down.  THE DEFENSE SHOULD CALL A TIMEOUT.

The offense simply waits til around 3 secs on clock, calls timeout - and gets a free hail mary.  This cant happen if the defense calls timeout with 30 secs left.

Same strategy as what shouldve been used last night - but bad execution.

@Vegas502

 Yeah - but nobody could know that.  How does anyone know that he wouldnt change his mind - or that this is even true??

But simply put - you cant know that on the other sideline.

@vanzack

 No, I think the timeout he did call was right because he did it when the game clock was at 39 seconds. He waited I believe to give him an extra chance to end the game. If the raiders intent was to end the game in a tie, the timeout at 39 seconds gives the raiders time to realize that a kneel down ends the game because there are less than 40 seconds going to the 3rd down play. It was obvious to Staley the raiders were not going to kneel down so he called timeout, to give himself a freeroll on raiders deciding after the timeout that a kneel down just ends this. They didn’t do that and Staley got confused by that and he kept a db playing back to hedge a deep pass td (which was also a freeroll if they did that) 

@vanzack

 He had two of them, may as well use them both. In theory I’m guessing he called it to try and get the defence set as best as possible to stop that 3rd and 4 run. Everyone knew they were going by to run it. To me that’s where the epic failure was that even after that timeout and knowing they’re going to run, your defence still got gashed for 10 yards and a much easier FG.

@Vegas502

 That’s a lie because they would have just kneeled down on 3rd down after the timeout. There was only 38 seconds on the clock and if they come out in victory formation the chargers aren’t calling a timeout after the kneel down lol ?? 

@kingpincarbs

 The original reasoning was correct, however I disagree that the Raiders would have ever just taken a knee. Maybe the most vanilla run into the line of scrimmage, but not a knee. And I also disagree about the Raiders maybe having a freeroll on the deep pass...it would not have been a freeroll, if that pass goes awry or incomplete for any reason the clock stops and it’s still 4th down without forcing the Chargers to use their last timeout. There is no way the Raiders were stopping that clock until 2 seconds left to kick the FG if they still had the ball.

@Vegas502

 Run the clock down...not out. Key word, DOWN! And of course they were content doing that because they were in full control and a win or tie situation (in other words a no lose situation).

The Chargers were in a mostly lose, maybe get lucky and tie situation.

@dcp1985

 You are correct.

The mistake was NOT realizing before the timeout with 39 seconds that the Raiders HAD to run there.

BUT....

At 39 seconds - when he realized that the third down play was the whole enchilada - the game hung in the balance of that one play - he called timeout because he needed the right defense out there.

The key would be if they stopped him on third - would he have immediately called his second timeout?

The key here is if the Raiders KNEW before the third down that they wanted to go to Cincy instead of KC.

If they did - they would always kick the FG if they got the first down - or if they didnt get the first down and LA didnt call the timeout.

@vanzack

 100% I have to think he would have. Time on the clock was the only deterrent he had to prevent the Raiders from attempting the FG and having a “free” shot at the win.

@dcp1985

 100% he SHOULD have.

Cant say would have.

We will never know.

Very similar situation happens ALL THE TIME.

End of first half, offense with ball near midfield - running clock on 4th down.  The DEFENSE needs to call a timeout to prevent the offense from calling it with 2 secs to get a free hail mary.  How many times is this actually done??  Not very often.

@vanzack

 Good point. I may be giving him too much credit for this. I really could see a situation where they stop them on 3rd down and the chargers coach letting them run the clock down and Vegas calls the timeout with 3 seconds left to go for the freeroll winner. 

In all fairness....

You usually have situations in the NFL that pertain to game theory that are obvious.  Or at least not so complex.

Last night was a once in a lifetime.  Tons of moving parts.  Multiple decisions to be made instead of just one.

So I am giving the coaches a pass somewhat.  It is great to debate on here - but in the heat of the moment last night - it is really hard to say because a lot depends on what the OTHER coach is going to do - which is very hard to predict.

@kingpincarbs

 Agree with everything you said. people acting like the raiders were in victory formation and were willing to tie and the time out changed the raiders minds. Like you said if the raiders get stuffed i doubt the raiders risk a long fg. They would have punted. 

They kicked the FG because just think of the money lost from bets if the game ended in a tie, too much public money on a tie!  Tie: +1400