What a complete joke of a line. Earlier today we saw two teams with very
similar records on the season and Cleveland managed to beat New England
on what was a very shady line to begin with but this line makes a lot
more sense. Dallas is 1-6 SU on the season, it's definitely not a fluke and they are 1-6 ATS in those seven games which is a very good indication of how a team has played and if they have kept things close. The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns all had bad records coming into this week but they all have decent ATS records and they have all competed in most of the games they have played. The Dallas Cowboys on the other hand have not even come close in most of their losses and the full fade is on right now. Even at full strength and as a three point favorite in 2009, the Cowboys could not beat Green Bay here in a game late November going down 17-7 in their matchup. The Cowboys have allowed 33.3 points per game their last three games and despite playing a lot better away from home than they have in the Super Bowl hosting stadium this season, I have to go against these guys. You cannot bet on a team that cannot even beat teams they see all the time. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus NFC Conference opponents and when their defense is bad, their defense is bad. They allowed a ton of yards last week against the Jaguars and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a game where they allowed 350+ total yards of offense. Dallas has done well coming off double digit losses at home but there's just no chance I can back them without QB Tony Romo and knowing they had problems scoring points here in 2009. Green Bay on the other hand had problems running the ball last game but they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they rush for less than 90 yards the game before and they have been great versus bad teams. The Packers are now 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a losing record on the season, they are playing tremendous on the defensive side of things right now and this is a team that is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a game where they allowed 15 or less points the game before. When this defense is making plays and when they are hot, they are worth the backing and that stat just proves it. Green Bay is also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win and watching these guys play against the Jets defense last weekend on the road, I just get the feeling they are on the verge of exploding or having a huge game. If you have followed this series the last couple of seasons or the last five seasons for that matter, the HOME TEAM is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Favorite has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9. So again all you need to know is that Dallas is 1-6 SU this season, they have played like a 1-6 SU team all year (1-6 ATS in those same games) and I have no idea what the motivation would be tonight to keep this game close. Expect a dud of a game and this is going to be nothing short of a National TV showcase game for the Packers to show that they are back in business. I love the Packers tonight and have made some serious cash on them in this spot in the past.
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Green Bay Packers -7
What a complete joke of a line. Earlier today we saw two teams with very
similar records on the season and Cleveland managed to beat New England
on what was a very shady line to begin with but this line makes a lot
more sense. Dallas is 1-6 SU on the season, it's definitely not a fluke and they are 1-6 ATS in those seven games which is a very good indication of how a team has played and if they have kept things close. The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns all had bad records coming into this week but they all have decent ATS records and they have all competed in most of the games they have played. The Dallas Cowboys on the other hand have not even come close in most of their losses and the full fade is on right now. Even at full strength and as a three point favorite in 2009, the Cowboys could not beat Green Bay here in a game late November going down 17-7 in their matchup. The Cowboys have allowed 33.3 points per game their last three games and despite playing a lot better away from home than they have in the Super Bowl hosting stadium this season, I have to go against these guys. You cannot bet on a team that cannot even beat teams they see all the time. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus NFC Conference opponents and when their defense is bad, their defense is bad. They allowed a ton of yards last week against the Jaguars and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a game where they allowed 350+ total yards of offense. Dallas has done well coming off double digit losses at home but there's just no chance I can back them without QB Tony Romo and knowing they had problems scoring points here in 2009. Green Bay on the other hand had problems running the ball last game but they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they rush for less than 90 yards the game before and they have been great versus bad teams. The Packers are now 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a losing record on the season, they are playing tremendous on the defensive side of things right now and this is a team that is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a game where they allowed 15 or less points the game before. When this defense is making plays and when they are hot, they are worth the backing and that stat just proves it. Green Bay is also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win and watching these guys play against the Jets defense last weekend on the road, I just get the feeling they are on the verge of exploding or having a huge game. If you have followed this series the last couple of seasons or the last five seasons for that matter, the HOME TEAM is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Favorite has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9. So again all you need to know is that Dallas is 1-6 SU this season, they have played like a 1-6 SU team all year (1-6 ATS in those same games) and I have no idea what the motivation would be tonight to keep this game close. Expect a dud of a game and this is going to be nothing short of a National TV showcase game for the Packers to show that they are back in business. I love the Packers tonight and have made some serious cash on them in this spot in the past.
Alright so here is the deal. The betting public got burned quite a bit this past weekend in both College Football (Missouri was a huge 70% play along with a few others that went down in flames) and then Vegas dangled New England -4 in the NFL yesterday and everyone drank the Kool Aid only to wake up feeling like crap. So what do the big boys do? They post an easy winner last night with Green Bay and bring everyone back into the game with their winnings only to screw you all over again tonight. COME ON NOW! Some 65% of the betting public is all over the Steelers in this game and that's a big mistake. Sure the Bengals are pretty much done for the 2010 season but they are nothing like some of the other bad record teams in the NFL. This is a team that has outyarded their opponents in 4 of their 7 games and although they are only 2-5 ATS and 2-5 SU on the season, this is the one game they don't want to lose. Cincinnati is coming off an 8 point home loss to Miami last weekend, probably looking ahead to this Monday Nighter, and now they get the hated division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, on a Monday Night and coming off a win over those Steelers last year. That's right, Cincinnati went to Pittsburgh and beat them 18-12 and that was on the heels of beating them 23-20 at home earlier in the year. Two straight up wins as an underdog. Pittsburgh is coming off a Monday Night loss to New Orleans and typically they would be an intriguing wager coming off a loss but the Steelers defense is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt the last three games and 239.2 passing yards per away game in 2010. Cincinnati has the #6 passing offense in the NFL this season and that's going to be a problem for the Steelers. Now to the important stuff. You have Pittsburgh on one hand who are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a losing record at home on the season, going up against a Cincinnati team that is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at home. Having said that, most of those games for Cincinnati have been as favorites and the Bengals are actually 5-1 ATS in their last six home games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10.5 points. WHY DOES EVERYONE LIKE PITTSBURGH KNOWING THEY HAVE COVERED THE SPREAD IN ONLY 3 OF THEIR LAST 11 GAMES AS A FAVORITE??? I mean their offense is not up to snuff with QB Ben Roethlisberger under center and the Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they score less than 15 points which means when things are not going right for these guys, things are not going right. The Bengals get a few members of their secondary back tonight (much needed) and I thin they'll cause all sorts of problems for the Pittsburgh. I don't think the Steelers get shut down but the Bengals probably have quite the game plan dialed up considering how conservative they looked against Miami and despite all the success of the Road Team in this series in the past, I just can't ignore the fact that the Steelers are not good as a favorite nor are they good against teams with a losing record. GO BENGALS AND OCHOCINCO'S TOUCHDOWN CELEBRATION PENALTY!
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Cincinnati Bengals +6
Alright so here is the deal. The betting public got burned quite a bit this past weekend in both College Football (Missouri was a huge 70% play along with a few others that went down in flames) and then Vegas dangled New England -4 in the NFL yesterday and everyone drank the Kool Aid only to wake up feeling like crap. So what do the big boys do? They post an easy winner last night with Green Bay and bring everyone back into the game with their winnings only to screw you all over again tonight. COME ON NOW! Some 65% of the betting public is all over the Steelers in this game and that's a big mistake. Sure the Bengals are pretty much done for the 2010 season but they are nothing like some of the other bad record teams in the NFL. This is a team that has outyarded their opponents in 4 of their 7 games and although they are only 2-5 ATS and 2-5 SU on the season, this is the one game they don't want to lose. Cincinnati is coming off an 8 point home loss to Miami last weekend, probably looking ahead to this Monday Nighter, and now they get the hated division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, on a Monday Night and coming off a win over those Steelers last year. That's right, Cincinnati went to Pittsburgh and beat them 18-12 and that was on the heels of beating them 23-20 at home earlier in the year. Two straight up wins as an underdog. Pittsburgh is coming off a Monday Night loss to New Orleans and typically they would be an intriguing wager coming off a loss but the Steelers defense is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt the last three games and 239.2 passing yards per away game in 2010. Cincinnati has the #6 passing offense in the NFL this season and that's going to be a problem for the Steelers. Now to the important stuff. You have Pittsburgh on one hand who are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a losing record at home on the season, going up against a Cincinnati team that is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at home. Having said that, most of those games for Cincinnati have been as favorites and the Bengals are actually 5-1 ATS in their last six home games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10.5 points. WHY DOES EVERYONE LIKE PITTSBURGH KNOWING THEY HAVE COVERED THE SPREAD IN ONLY 3 OF THEIR LAST 11 GAMES AS A FAVORITE??? I mean their offense is not up to snuff with QB Ben Roethlisberger under center and the Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they score less than 15 points which means when things are not going right for these guys, things are not going right. The Bengals get a few members of their secondary back tonight (much needed) and I thin they'll cause all sorts of problems for the Pittsburgh. I don't think the Steelers get shut down but the Bengals probably have quite the game plan dialed up considering how conservative they looked against Miami and despite all the success of the Road Team in this series in the past, I just can't ignore the fact that the Steelers are not good as a favorite nor are they good against teams with a losing record. GO BENGALS AND OCHOCINCO'S TOUCHDOWN CELEBRATION PENALTY!
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