Sports Investors Group ********NFL Football Week 9*******

NFL Record: 0-0


First time posting. Will try some NFL Football today and see if other sports should be posted on this forum. Not a tout, not a service, just couldn't find any other username that wasn't already taken. It's catchy right?



New Orleans-Carolina 'OVER' 40.5

The public is going to be all over the UNDER in this game for the simple fact that both teams combined for only 30 total points in the first meeting of the season but it's hard to believe these two offenses keeping it low again. These two teams have not combined for three straight UNDER bets in their last three meetings but you can expect an all out shootout today. The public is all over the Saints in this game but don't be so quick to take them and please take a look at the OVER. One thing I have noticed is that when New Orleans is when they are hot they are hot and coming off that big win on Sunday Night Football over the Pittsburgh Steelers, I expect nothing less than some explosive plays on offense in this one. I did a bit of research and the OVER is 4-0 in the Saints last four games coming off a straight up win the game before. When the Saints are favored on the road they clearly understand the importance of getting off to an early lead and the OVER has hit 18 of the last 26 times they have been a road favorite. Nobody is going to argue about Carolina's defense and how well they have played this season but as soon as they offense gets going and I really think they'll get going in this one, the defense will probably suffer a setback. Carolina is coming off a very good defensive performance but the OVER is 4-1 in the Panthers last five games coming off a game where they allow less than 90 yards rushing. With the absence of RB Reggie Bush, RB Pierre Thomas and RB Christopher Ivory, it's hard to see the Saints running the ball much in this game which means a lot less time off the clock and a lot more big plays in the air. The UNDER has hit in seven straight meetings between these teams when playing in Carolina but when was the last time you saw such a low total for a Saints game? Also for those considering taking New Orleans on the spread, please consider that the Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with Carolina and you are joining some 75% of the betting public that also took New Orleans. You are better off taking the points knowing that New Orleans is averaging 25.3 points per road game and knowing that both sides are going to throw the ball a lot more than usual with all the RB's out for this game (RB DeAngelo Williams is also out for Carolina). Points!

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 3 of 5

Ivory is in

will add this one...



Chicago Bears -3

The Buffalo Bills call Toronto their second home and it's been like that for quite some time now but the only problem there is that Buffalo has never won a regular season game in Toronto and their only success in their adoptive City has been in the pre-season. It doesn't get much worse for the 0-7 SU Buffalo Bills who have come so close to winning football games the last month but have come up short in crucial moments of the game against Baltimore, New England and now Kansas City, to whom they lost to on the very last play of overtime in a devastating three point loss. They are by no means the worst team in the NFL because they could easily beat Carolina if you ask me but this is not exactly a home game for Buffalo having to go from outdoors to indoors. QB Rory Fitzpatrick doesn't have great career numbers in indoor games. I know it's tough to back the Bears because of the fact that they failed to cover the spread in all four of their games played in November in 2009 and they are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite but the Bills are due for yet another letdown following their outstanding defensive performance last weekend against a very good Kansas City offense and I did some research only to find that Buffalo is actually 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off a game where they allow 15 or less points in the previous game and they are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points. They seem to really get up for games that are out of reach but have a lot more problems competing in games they should be winning and that's probably because of the letdown factor. The Bills and Bears are two teams that have actually played their best football this season when playing away from their home fields so we are probably in for quite the game with quite the few big plays but I have to say the -3 is very enticing on Chicago coming off the BYE WEEK and after two straight overtime losses the last two weekends, Buffalo has to be devastated and I imagine it would be hard to win a game like this. Buffalo has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and it has shown the last three games as they have allowed 5.5 yards per carry and I think Chicago is going to make them pay big time as they average 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. Give me the Bears to play a lot better than they have been playing coming off the week of rest. Winless in Toronto is the theme for the Bills and winless on the season will continue to be reality.

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 1 of 5

yes but you have to agree with all the problems at RB for both teams, the passing games will be featured. Ivory won't be running the ball 20+ times and he is on the injury report as banged up.

will add this one...



Houston Texans +3

FADE FADE FADE the teams from the West Coast playing 1:00pm ET games on the East Coast or in Central Time. Whatever. It just doesn't workout for them, never has and probably never will. Here is what you also have to understand about this matchup. Sure the San Diego Chargers a) need a win to keep any hopes of making the playoffs alive and b) have one of the top passing offenses in the NFL in 2010 like they have had for years now but my concern is injuries and you just can't run away from the fact that some many important members of the Chargers offense are out with injuries. WR Malcolm Floyd is OUT, TE Antonio Gates is OUT, WE Legedu Naanee is OUT and WR Vincent Jackson cannot play for another few weeks. That certainly gives a massive break to Houston and their #32 ranked pass defense in the NFL this season. San Diego is averaging only 91.0 rushing yards per game their last three games on only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. We all remember San Diego going 4-0 ATS last November and playing their best football of the season but at 3-5 SU on the season in 2010 and with so many injuries hampering this team it's hard to see them do that again this time around. The Group has been making money for a couple years now betting against San Diego when favored away from home where they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games as a favorite. San Diego is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games coming off a straight up win, they know absolutely nothing about consistency under Norv Turner as Head Coach and overall they are just a bad bet when favored having covered the spread only 3 times in their last 12 tries as a favorite. TEXAS ON THE OTHER HAND IS 8-2 ATS IN THEIR LAST 10 GAMES AS A HOME UNDERDOG and coming off that Monday Night Football horrendous loss to Peyton Manning and the Colts, you have to expect some kind of bounce back game. The Texans have covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 chances as underdogs but there is something about being the home underdog that gets this team all riled up and having a desperate and depleted San Diego team playing here in an early morning affair just makes this wager a whole heck of a lot sweeter. Houston is in a nice bounce back spot, they need a win just as much as San Diego needs a win when it comes to playoffs and I am shocked more than anything that they are underdogs at home considering that they have done as home underdogs over the course of the last five seasons. Bet on the Texans with a huge INVESTMENT from the Group!

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 4 of 5

will add this one...



New York Jets -4.5

Expect nothing short of a very good effort from the New York Jets in this game. I say that for the simple reason that they are coming off that horrible 9-0 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last weekend as a -6 point home favorite in that game and there is no way a team that holds such high standards for themselves is going to sit there and come out playing the same way two weeks in a row. This is no doubt a tough task for the Jets because Detroit is a revamped football team that is feeding off their huge win over the Washington Redskins last weekend but let's keep it real. QB Mark Sanchez was upset at practice this week and the Jets went as far as to fine him for bad body language in the final days of practice. If that doesn't motivate the kid or downright piss him off, I am not sure what can or what will. Make no mistake about it, this is a spot the Jets have absolutely dominated the last few seasons and Rex Ryan always has his guys ready to play on the road when the expectations are high and that would be why this team is 5-0 ATS in their last five road games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. I know everyone thinks the Lions are playing tremendous football right now and I can agree to some extent but they are still a team with a losing record on the season and the Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a losing record on the season. New York has made a living winning as a road favorite (5-0 ATS in their last five) and overall they are probably the most profitable away team in the NFL the last two seasons going 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. This is the time of the year that the Jets struggled big time in 2009 and it cost them playoff positioning in the end but make no mistake about it this team knows how to handle themselves on the road, they know how to handle themselves when favored on the road and they have pounced on weak teams in the past and done an outstanding job winning and covering away from home. Detroit only plays the way they did last week once or twice a year as they completely shut down the Redskins running game and made them a one dimensional offense but don't expect them to do it again. Detroit is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a game where they allowed 90 or less rushing yards the previous game and they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points (don't forget they were favored to win over the Redskins last week in the Week 8 SUCKER BET). The last six times Detroit scored 30 points in a game like they did last week against Washington, they followed that up by going 1-4-1 ATS the next time out and that's what I expect to happen in this game. Don't forget how good Rex Ryan can be when he is pissed off and coming off that loss to Green Bay at home last weekend, you know the Jets are going to come out guns blazing in this game and Detroit will have to pay for it.

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 5 of 5

  

Opposite big......

LIKE YOUR 1ST PICK ONLY...GL

Can you provide the results of chargers games when gates doesn't play?

i think that info will be more valuable than just fading west coast teams in east coast time zone, houston is in central time anyway

Gates always plays, he's started 87 straight games, and he is likely to play in this game. He has never been reported as OUT, so this guy needs to get his facts straight. He's listed as DOUBTFUL and did participate in some of Friday's walk through.

thanks, good stuff.  keep me updated gates is such a huge factor in this game

Nice write ups S.I.G. GL 

Welcome to the forums, nice detailed writeups. I'm with you on the Jets, not playing any of the others. Chicago would be my 2nd favorite of the ones you posted but Buffalo is getting a lot better and they're going to upset someone soon. Buffalo is absolutely bad against the run but the Bears are also terrible at running the ball.

no kidding and I'm a lifetime Bills fan too. Guess that's the mindset you have from a lifetime of losing right. Thanks and good luck!

Very impressive tout-worthy write-ups. The Texans/Chargers game ought to be one of the most entertaining games of the year. I don't think I'll be able to pull the trigger on either side, but the over 50 looks good, even though it may be Captain Obvious. GL

will add this one...



Kansas City Chiefs -1

What a massive swing in odds because the last time I walked into the Mirage to drop a large wager on this game, the Chiefs were available at +2.5 and now things have gone the other way. You have to respect the Oakland Raiders because not only are their division rivals in town for the biggest game of the year but they sold out this home game to avoid yet another local TV blackout and that's a huge deal in Oakland because the last 10-15 years have been blackout city for all Oakland Raiders football games. Having said that the Road Team is 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings between these two teams and Kansas City is coming off a huge overtime win over the resilient Buffalo Bills. What this matchup really comes down to is the fact that one of these two teams is going to have to step things up defensively. Both offenses are on fire right now combining for some 800+ total yards of offense each on average their last three games so this is going to come down to playmaking and defense. Kansas City has always been a streak team and coming off two wins in a row and some tremendous offensive performances you have to believe they'll keep it going as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a game where they accumulate 350+ total yards of offense. The Chiefs are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played on natural grass and they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five road games on the season. I have made some big cash betting on the Chiefs in close spread games like this and I take comfort knowing they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games versus AFC Conference opponents. The Raiders have been trustworthy in 2010 for the time in about five or six years but they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win the game before and having won two straight you have to expect some kind of letdown with a team that has been overachieving all season long. The Chiefs on the other hand have not been overachieving and three straight wins would meet expectations. Sometimes you have stats out there that cannot be ignored and in this case the fact that KANSAS CITY IS 7-0 ATS IN THEIR LAST SEVEN TRIPS TO OAKLAND is something you cannot ignore. The Road Team has always been the choice in this series going 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings and I expect the Chiefs to continue their dominance of the Raiders in Oakland. Kansas City no doubt has the best backfield duo of RB Thomas Jones and RB Jamaal Charles and these two should have no problems taking the Raiders defense to town seeing how the Raiders have allowed 4.5 yards per carry at home this season. That's a big problem. I'll take Kansas City in a heartbeat in this one.

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 3 of 5

just having a good time my friend. took me forever to come up with a nickname for this place since everything was taken. Good Luck today.

I never made my wager based on Gates being in or out. The reports I read say he won't play and if he does play it will be on very limited basis. What I have yet to hear or read is how San Diego plans on stopping the Texans today? The fact that Houston is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog is very big and this is a great spot to back them against a fading San Diego team with a bunch of injuries.

what is a tout

I like the Jets Under

will add this one...



Indianapolis Colts +3

Never should a handicapper pass up on an opportunity to bet on the Indianapolis Colts and one of the best QB's of all-time when they are underdogs. What's the reason for this line anyways? I have to agree with a few handicappers on the strip that this is a trap line and that some of the big guys upstairs are begging us to bet on what is the most obvious play of the day amongst others but we are talking about a Colts team that has been winning even without some of their top players and I don't expect that to stop. WR Austin Collie is back this week, CB Jerraud Powers is probably going to play and so is CB Jacob Lacey so the Colts are getting healthier but what really has me attracted to this play is the fact that Philadelphia has allowed 257.0 passing yards per game in their last three games on 6.9 yards per pass attempt and decent QB's have been torching this secondary for quite some time now. The key today for the Colts will obviously be to find a way to stop QB Michael Vick and I don't thin they can do it seeing how they allow 4.8 yards per carry their last three games but in what should be a shootout you have to admit betting on Manning as an underdog is pretty darn enticing. The last three quarterbacks to face the Colts defense have a QB Rating of 67.3. Can the Colts stop the big plays to WR DeSean Jackson, who is back from his concussion, and WR Jeremy Maclin? Sure why not. They stopped the Texans offense last week on Monday Night Football and have allowed only 4.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Now here me out on this and this is to all those who feel like fading the Colts. Indianapolis is now 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points and it seems that everytime some of the top cappers in the world feel like they have found the perfect situation to fade the Colts, Manning finds a way to prove them wrong. I mean the Colts are also 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and if you want to put that into a different context just think that in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record, the Colts have failed to cover the spread only one time. INCREDIBLE! They are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points it's just not acceptable from a handicapping point of view to go against them with these kinds of numbers on your side. Andy Reid is a very good BYE WEEK coach and the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four seasons coming off the BYE WEEK but Philadelphia seems to have success against bad teams and bad teams only going 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season. The Eagles are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 games overall. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series and again it just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to go against Manning as an underdog when he has been absolute cash money in these spots in the past. Philadelphia has the #23 ranked points defense in the NFL while Indianapolis is ranked #3 in the NFL in points offense and #2 in the NFL in overall offense. It doesn't matter who is out there for the Colts, you have to go big on them every single time they are underdogs, it's a golden rule of betting and I'm all over it this week.

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 2 of 5

WEEK 9

NO-CAR 'Over' 40.5
Chicago -3
Houston +3
NY Jets -4.5
Kansas City -1
Indianapolis +3


Will have more to post on Sunday Night and Monday Night but for now this is what I have and I wish everyone a great week! Let's get this party started with some big wins and happy investing!!!