Slick100's NFL Thread

You are right about the TE angle, but I don't think Olsen is elite.  I'd put him in the 2nd tier.  I'd put Gates, Thomas, and Gronk in that class.  He does have a bigger role than last year with Smith gone, and his numbers are up and projected to surpass last years numbers.  I definitely don't think the Saints can do what the Hawks did taking him out of the game, they don't have the personnel. 

Another thing that is alarming w/ the Panthers is that their defense is 32nd in the open field.  If Ingrams gets through the 1st level, he is gone.  Panthers just got done dealing with Lycnh who we all know as a big load to bring down.  I'd expect Ingram to wear them out off this short rest, and I am confident about that with the Saints o-line really jelling at this point.  

Buuuuuuut, it all depends on the Saints taking these advantages away.  I'm willing to bet on that.  I think it's a better spot than when they went to Dallas.  We shall see.

BOL, suuma

Man, Cadet & Ingram almost broke out through the secondary.  It's going to happen in the second stretch, for sure.  Panthers defense is going to have their hands on their hips by the end of the 3rd.  Cam will have to rely on his arm which is exactly what we want as Saints backers. 

Payton sends a message in this second half.

2h No Pk -125, 1u 

There is no such thing as easy money.  I put a lot of time into these picks and have fun doing so.  So, when I get on a streak, I like to always remind myself that it's hard work.  Complacency is a quality that can bite you on your behind when times are good.  And, there is a lot more football to the year and bigger wagers to place.  

The lines are sharp this week.  I don't have much real work lined up tomorrow so I'll be able to take a closer look in the match-ups.

So, it's almost 5am where I am, and it only took me two hours to come to a lean on this game.  This will be a long day capping day ahead of me.  BTW, I left out other details, but I assure you that the points I made in this write-up were points I thought had to be made.  So, if you are thinking about backing one of these two teams, play small.  

lol....

I know.  I'm sick.  I have no life.  Well, atleast when it's football season.

I thought it was important that I put it out there having been burned by the more than I've won.  I've only won one wager and have had to atleast lost two, maybe three.

BTW, thanks for accepting my friend request.

OUT Daniel Kilgore (C) - the most important piece to the o-line.  Rookie Marcus Martin gets the start, but has had the bye week to prepare.  Harbaugh had nothing but good things to say about his classroom work, attitude, and practice on the field.  He'll be going against Rams rookie Aaron Donald who plays solid. 

PLAYING Patrick Willis (ILB) - all-pro will start.

PLAYING Mike Iupati (G) - one of the best run-blockers in the league.

OUT Jake Long (T) - all-pro is out.  He is a veteran, but his productivity is trending downward as of late.  

OUT Brian Quick (WR) - was listed as WR #2.  He is second in team targets, reception TDs, and y/g.  He is also first in yds and third in y/r.  

PLAYING Trumaine Johnson (CB) - will return after a sprain MCL during the preseason.

QUESTIONABLE Janoris Jenkins (CB) - DNP on Thursday.

Rams are last in pass defense (DVOA).  The d-line against pass protection are #32, and have six sacks putting them last in that category.  The Rams secondary is very poor, but with Johnson and Jenkins returning this should improve against the pass.  I just don't think it'll be that much of boost for this poor d-line to lean on.  

The 49ers starting center will be out.  This is a crucial injury to the o-line being that the center makes the blocking assignments.  Marcus Martin will be replacing Kilgore.  He is a rookie picked up in the 3rd round and was injured before the season started.  Kaep was sacked six times for a loss of 53yds a couple of weeks ago in Denver.  Martin's role protecting Kaep and making the correct blocking assignment decisions will be crucial to a 49ers offense that passes 54.45% of the time.  The o-line also ranks #28 in pass protection.  So it's imperative for a solid performance from rookie center, Martin.  Kaep does have the ability to extend plays with his legs buying more time for receivers to get open.  

Bottom line, the Rams are horrible against the pass, and the 49ers will struggle at center.  The bye week should benefit the line giving Martin extra time to be caught up to speed and with Kaeps playmaking ability, should lead to another long day for the Rams pass rush and secondary.

The Rams had success against the 49ers ground game in their prior meeting.  They did a good job, but the problem with that is that it was their only solid performance this season.  If you look at other match-ups against the run they were diced up.  Plus, the 49ers fell behind early in that game forcing them to go to the air.  The 49ers have struggled running the ball the past two games.  Both those games were away.  At home their rush y/a is 4.7.  They average away 3.6.  Thats a huge difference and against worthy opponents at home against the run.  

49ers Running Backs Faced this Season

D. Murray - 118yds

M. Forte - 21

A. Ellington - 62

L. McCoy - 17

J. Charles - 80

Z. Stacy - 17

R. Hillman - 74

Last meeting, the 49ers held them to 89 yds total rushing.  If the 49ers have the same success as they did in St. Louis, this is going to add more pressure for Davis to make plays with his arm.  This will be a difficult task for the 49ers defensive unit because the Rams rush y/a is 0.8 of a difference from home to away.  It is disconcerning if you are a 49ers backer but knowing that the 49ers rush defense has had success against strong rbs consistently puts that to rest.  

The Rams pass offense is #27.  They have allowed 23 sacks, #5 in that category.  The o-line pass protection is #30.  The line is struggling big time with injuries.  Primarily, with Long out, and Greg Robinson doing a poor job replacing him at left tackle.  Scott Wells (C) will return as starter.  

In my opinion, Davis has still done a fine job with this bad, patched-up o-line, but he still makes a lot of mistakes.  This line is not helping him and only accentuates his mistakes.  His WR#2, Quick, is out.  He led the team with y/g.  Davis is limited greatly in the pass, and with Wells returning, I don't think it'll be enough to get this line jellying.  

The 49ers against the pass ranks #8, and they have Willis, Culliver, Brock, and Ward returning.  They have already managed with injuries and suspensions, and with these guys returning it's only going to be more stout.  This pass defense has 6.6 y/a, ranking 4th in this category, and at home they lead the league with 4.9 y/a.  Their weakness is getting to the quarterback.  However, this wasn't an issue last meeting getting to Davis five times.  

The Rams are in a bad spot here.  They are beat up, and have to go on the road against a stout 49ers defense and against a quarterback that plays very well against them.  The 49ers are going to make a big push coming off a bye week to make an attempt to take the lead of their division.  This could get ugly..

Sf -10 -110, 2u

Best of Luck to a Profitable Sunday

Hopefully it plays out as planned, lancer.

No problem, I'll resend shortly, Mac.

The Chargers have been getting worked the past two weeks.  They played against a highly motivated Chiefs on revenge, and against division rival away, the Broncos, which is always a highly competitive contest.  They have been sustaining many injuries throughout the season.  Even, alot of the players starting in Miami are banged up.  A bye week for the Chargers would cure many of there ailments.  

Antonio Gates is a beast this year, and what do you do with a beast?  You feed it.  He is second most in targets and leads the team in touchdowns.  He is the #1 tight end (DVOA).  Gates is now the Chargers all-time leader in receiving yards after last weeks game.  

Second year WLB Jelani Jenkins  has been an asset to this Dolphins coverage against running backs and tight ends.  So much so, that they are #1 against tight ends.  He is under-sized measuring 6'0, but he is an excellent cover man.  Tight ends against the Dolphins y/g is 40.6 ranking them #3.  If the Dolphins take their success in to Sunday's game, Gates will not reach his y/g average and may not reach the end zone.  If they do keep him out of the end  zone, it would be a huge blow to the Chargers offensive rhythm.  Their is no team right for the job to accomplish this huge feet, but the Miami Dolphins.

Miami averages 148 y/g at home.  The Chargers give up 112.2 away.  The Chargers #22 against the rush.  Their d-line against the run #27, and Miami is #4 in run blocking.  Miller is averaging 4.9y/a.  Dwight Freeney will start after being out from injury, but he is over the hill.  His numbers have been trending down since 2009.  He does provide veteran leadership.  Darren Colledge is out.  He is listed as questionable but hasn't practiced all week.  I'm almost certain that he won't start, and Dallas Thomas will get the start at left guard.  He was picked up in the 3rd back in 2013 and has been working with the starters all week at left guard.

Nonexistent.  And, they are going against a team that ranks #9against the run.  Donald Brown will be back and has been practicing all week.  But, for the five games he has started he has averaged 2.1 y/a.  Their starting running back, Oliver, is not impressive on the road only averaging 3.44 y/a.  It doesn't help them that Mathews and Woodhead have been out, but this o-line almost is the worst, ranking #31 in run blocking.  

Rivers is #2 in the quarterback category.  He has a 20/4 touchdown to interception ratio (Peyton is the only qb who is better than him in the category).  He has the best performing tight end, and a capable receiving corp.  His line is in the top 10 for pass protection.  But, where they struggle is against pass defenses that rank in the top 10.

238/1/1 @Arizona

256/2/0 @Buffalo

205/2/1 Kansas City

252/3/2 @Denver

Not only does his y/g decline (by 38.85 yds), but all four of his interceptions have come from pass defenses that rank in the top 10.

They rank #5, and #10 against pass protection.  They have 21 sacks (#10) and have six interception (league average is 6.3).  Their opponents passing y/g at home is 214 which is very strong considering they have faced Rodgers and Brady.  Both rank in the top 10 for quarterbacks.  Jimmy Wilson (S) will be back (starter nickle CB).  Finnegan (RCB) will also be back.  The starting secondary squad will be intact for Rivers & Co.

Both of these teams offense and defense statistical variance ranks high in consistency.

The Chargers offense is transparent.  The only way they win games is through the air, and when they play against an excellent pass defense they lose (1-3).  They are banged up and off two vigorous contests.  Now, they have to travel cross country to face a physical defense with their bye week around the corner.  

GL bud.  

glyde, hopefully were spot on with the 9ers.  The Miami game should be a tight race.  It'll come down to whether or not this defense can hold Rivers & Co in the final stretch.  Best of Luck, man