Sitautional Capping 101

I think Vanzack comes off as a dick as well but he means well. The more I look into this Circadian Advantage the more I can agree with the fact that it does affect the players.

vanzack, your argument is to simply inject doubt. i'm not saying i'm on LC's side either but have you provided any stats, data, or even better, proof, that you're correct? your idea of a proof is to start the clock now and come back five years later with compiled data to see whether or not the trend is upheld- an impractical resolution.

this is much like, for a lack of better example, the creationist view that evolution isn't real because it wasn't directly observed. they want to view it directly, bones morphing/mutating and all, in order to believe it. anyway, shitty example.

Wow.

I have to prove IM CORRECT?  Huh?  The original poster posted a claim.  I asked for further clarification.  The original poster called me a meanie and said he wouldnt talk to me.

Then, we find out there are 10 examples over 10 years and it is 7-3.  Do you actually need me to explain to you why 10 examples over a 10 year period that contain 2500 games is statistically insignificant?

I cant believe this.  What stats, data, or proof do I need to provide?  The 2490 other results that do not fall in to this category?  A class on statistics to show that 10 results out of 2500 are not statistically relevant?

Jeesh.  You have got to be kidding me.  Maybe you dont like my tone.  Maybe you dont like my style.  Maybe you dont like me.  But you should be licking my boots that I am the first one at covers out of several thousand who read this shit to actually question it, and get further along to understand what is at the bottom of it.  But if all you want to do is congratulate the original poster, here is my response.....

Good Luck!!

I will be watching this system closely!!

Is that better???

And once again - for the 10th time in this thread.....

WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST WE DO WITH THIS INFORMATION????

Maybe ClubTNT will attempt to answer me since nobody else will, and he seems to like to dance with the devil.

Give it a shot.  Do we bet it blindly?  What if there is a 7-3 trend for the east coast team that night - what then?

van, where did i say this trend is golden? i didn't.

what if there's a 7-3 trend for east coast teams? what if there's a 11-2 trend for balmy weather? what if there's a 8-0-2 trend for election years? what if's?!?! what do i suggest we do with these trends? i don't suggest anything for the collective "we". as for the individual, any trends, news, injuries, inside info, etc., can be considered but doesn't have to be, it's up to each person.

what will i do with it? nothing. just hoping for a good game as i'm sitting this one out.

[Quote: Originally Posted by SYSTEM] [/Quote

Still no pm from League Capper....MIA?  No, that's not Miami! lol

So I added in the rest of the night games over the past 10 years... it is 17 - 11 in favor of the west coast SU.  I agree with Van that this is too small of a sample size (on average approximately 3 games a year)  

2002:

SEP 5_SF 16 – NYG 13

SEP 15 OAK 30 – PIT 17

NOV 17 OAK 27 – NE 20

NOV 25_PHI 38 -SF 17

DEC 2_OAK 26 - NYJ 20

 

 

2003:

OCT 27_MIA 26 - SD 10

NOV 17_SF 30 - PIT 14

 

2004:

SEP 26 OAK 30 – TB 20

 

2005:

SEP 8 NE 30 – OAK 20

SEP 25 SD 45 – NYG 23

OCT 10_PIT 24 - SD 22

DEC 5_SEA 42 - PHI 0

DEC 31 NYG 30 – OAK 21

 

2006:

OCT 8 SD 23 – PIT 13

 

2007:

SEP 16 NE 38 – SD 14

DEC 15 SF 20 – CIN 13

 

2008:

Sep 22_SD 48 - NYJ 29

OCT 12 SD 30 – NE 10

OCT 19 TB 20 – SEA 10

NOV 23 IND 23 – SD 20

 

2009:

OCT 4 PIT 38 – SD 8

 

2010:

OCT 10 PHI 27 – SF 24

NOV 28 SD 36 – IND 14

 

2011:

NOV 24 BAL 16 – SF 6

DEC 1 SEA 31 – PHI 14

Dec 5_SD 38 - JAC 14

DEC 18 SD 34 – BAL 14

Dec 19_SF 20 - PIT 3

Good read 

Really? Jesus get a BJ from a supermodel - and all is better.  Life is good.

Keep the religious atheist comments out the thread please thanks.   How bout we stick to capping the games instead of bashing religion.

kev, I apologize .... I am catholic too and I can't refrain myself from responding to such arrogant remark

Firstly, don't assume, my comments were my comments, your choice in your response is not in my control.

I actually will look into more, will I do it today? nope. Tomorrow? nope. But I will get to it.  I have been betting since I was 16, successfully since I was 22.  I love statistics, segmentation, momentum trends and I have applied this knowledge into a career, not in sports gambling but in analytics which I'm in senior management. I gamble part time/periodically and have posted winning seasons on covers in the nhl where is only where I used to consistently post. Don't believe me, who cares. My point to this rambling (finally I know) is so you know that I'm no bloke sitting in my mom's basement gambling to live pay check to pay check.

How am I going to take this into capping you ask? Next time I cap a game, this little trend will make my play a no play if it's only a slight lean to a bet. etc.  It's a similar trend which I incorporate which is don't bet against the home dog on MNF and be careful of taking the under on SNF. I don't blindly bet them, but when I attribute a % to factors to make my decision, these trends own a small attribution.

I hope in a general sense I have answered your question about how I will apply this knowledge. Anyone who bets this blindly or doesn't incorporate this as only a factor of their decision is a losing bettor. Perhaps LC came on a tad thick with his initial post, but perhaps just perhaps he got excited and wanted to share this knowledge with covers folks and didn't realize he would be graded on his messaging.

Point being...have a great discussion on a chat board is cool. I know you know your shit, I've read your post and have applied some of your theories on buy/sell lines for a sure profit, or about complete randomness in the next card in BJ.  Perhaps though, you could have a chill discussion without firing out the dick card so quickly. But maybe you like being a dick. Who knows.

I hope for the most part I answered your question.

FT

i have a phd in statistics and evaluations of metronomical astronuclear phenomenon--and i say you are ALL full of shit.

And if you dont think Vegas already incorporates this 'time difference' in the spreads, I've got a BRIDGE to sell you  lol      By the way, going on trends (your 70%) is NOT situational betting. At all.

but good luck to you all the same ...  no worries