I wanted to bet the Seahawks. But then I ran my stats numbers - and I just cant. The Cowboys are so overwhelmingly statistically superior - especially at home - that even though they have played inferior competition it is too high of a standard deviation of outcomes for me to bet comfortably either way.
A lot of different outcomes could happen tonight. I will watch from the sidelines.
GL all
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
NFL Season +26.5 units
I wanted to bet the Seahawks. But then I ran my stats numbers - and I just cant. The Cowboys are so overwhelmingly statistically superior - especially at home - that even though they have played inferior competition it is too high of a standard deviation of outcomes for me to bet comfortably either way.
A lot of different outcomes could happen tonight. I will watch from the sidelines.
I can’t get with this under theory either. Just because the last one went under this one will? What if the over comes in at an incredible rate for the rest of the season and balances out? Makes no sense to bet because of a trend. They all come to an end.
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@vanzack
I can’t get with this under theory either. Just because the last one went under this one will? What if the over comes in at an incredible rate for the rest of the season and balances out? Makes no sense to bet because of a trend. They all come to an end.
@crazy1464 Not a chance. Cowboys at home. Will be up 17+ by halftime.
Up by 17 half time is actually up by 8. I already baked the spread into your equation. Where you gonna run now? 2h TD by Seattle will have you sweating by the balls
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Quote Originally Posted by FamousRy:
@crazy1464 Not a chance. Cowboys at home. Will be up 17+ by halftime.
Up by 17 half time is actually up by 8. I already baked the spread into your equation. Where you gonna run now? 2h TD by Seattle will have you sweating by the balls
@vanzack if it was 15 straight reds its still the same odds on the 16th spin and less then 50-50 due to the green (47%) chance regardless Any how thanks for posting Van...GL this week
You forgot the intangibles. What you see in theory is not often happening in real life.
If #15 comes out 15 straight, you gonna bet on 15 again? I'll be generous here. Look at any roulette tower where you see the last 15 or so plays, tell me if you see a repeating number. I know it happens but not often enough for the scare and that's why I never bet 0/00 after a green comes out. I'm 100-1 on that odds.
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Quote Originally Posted by BigPapa21:
@vanzack if it was 15 straight reds its still the same odds on the 16th spin and less then 50-50 due to the green (47%) chance regardless Any how thanks for posting Van...GL this week
You forgot the intangibles. What you see in theory is not often happening in real life.
If #15 comes out 15 straight, you gonna bet on 15 again? I'll be generous here. Look at any roulette tower where you see the last 15 or so plays, tell me if you see a repeating number. I know it happens but not often enough for the scare and that's why I never bet 0/00 after a green comes out. I'm 100-1 on that odds.
@vanzack I can’t get with this under theory either. Just because the last one went under this one will? What if the over comes in at an incredible rate for the rest of the season and balances out? Makes no sense to bet because of a trend. They all come to an end.
That primetime under trend is only flavors them people who are already riding it and are playing with the bookies money so a list here will not hurt them at all since they are up way ahead. Trend is your friend.
However, knowing my luck, as soon as I ride with them, I'll jinx them all and there goes the over. Due theory is a fallacy. You will not beat the person who rides the trend is your friend model. The only way you can even hang with them is if you martingale the over. That one time it goes over is your only meal ticket for the win but still, martingale system is also a fallacy and we don't have the big bankroll to keep doubling our money once we loses.
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Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
@vanzack I can’t get with this under theory either. Just because the last one went under this one will? What if the over comes in at an incredible rate for the rest of the season and balances out? Makes no sense to bet because of a trend. They all come to an end.
That primetime under trend is only flavors them people who are already riding it and are playing with the bookies money so a list here will not hurt them at all since they are up way ahead. Trend is your friend.
However, knowing my luck, as soon as I ride with them, I'll jinx them all and there goes the over. Due theory is a fallacy. You will not beat the person who rides the trend is your friend model. The only way you can even hang with them is if you martingale the over. That one time it goes over is your only meal ticket for the win but still, martingale system is also a fallacy and we don't have the big bankroll to keep doubling our money once we loses.
Quote Originally Posted by Verdict: Just take the under. Only bet to make in the NFL during prime time games. 28-9. Not to many people are betting sides during these games. By nature, I am not someone who will blindly bet something because of a trend unless I have a causation theory. 15 reds in a row at a roullette wheel will not get me to bet red on the 16th. Everyone knows the unders have been happening. Do you have a causation theory on why this is happening?
I think there are 2 reasons.....quality of play is down (players switching teams meaning less continuity etc) and the players have openly stated they don't like the Thursday games.....now they've added another game/week to the schedule.....I think we are seeing players realizing their tanks won't last all season if they drain them every week (especially on short rest).....
Maybe its none of that.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Verdict: Just take the under. Only bet to make in the NFL during prime time games. 28-9. Not to many people are betting sides during these games. By nature, I am not someone who will blindly bet something because of a trend unless I have a causation theory. 15 reds in a row at a roullette wheel will not get me to bet red on the 16th. Everyone knows the unders have been happening. Do you have a causation theory on why this is happening?
I think there are 2 reasons.....quality of play is down (players switching teams meaning less continuity etc) and the players have openly stated they don't like the Thursday games.....now they've added another game/week to the schedule.....I think we are seeing players realizing their tanks won't last all season if they drain them every week (especially on short rest).....
My gambling superstition only, please don't change your ways. LOL Gambling is based on streaks and has for many ages. the theory of this or that is due has put many people in bad spots. Any who... The under is 13 to under this year on MNF. Last 11 in a row winning rage. It's all about cleaning up no matter what way you look at it.
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@nfl_brosuf
My gambling superstition only, please don't change your ways. LOL Gambling is based on streaks and has for many ages. the theory of this or that is due has put many people in bad spots. Any who... The under is 13 to under this year on MNF. Last 11 in a row winning rage. It's all about cleaning up no matter what way you look at it.
NFL Season +26.5 units I wanted to bet the Seahawks. But then I ran my stats numbers - and I just cant. The Cowboys are so overwhelmingly statistically superior - especially at home - that even though they have played inferior competition it is too high of a standard deviation of outcomes for me to bet comfortably either way. A lot of different outcomes could happen tonight. I will watch from the sidelines. GL all
I absolutely agree. Also, Van after running your numbers do you take head coaches into consideration? This year really sticks out with more bone headed choices being made by the head coach. Pete may not have the better team although he is the better coach.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
NFL Season +26.5 units I wanted to bet the Seahawks. But then I ran my stats numbers - and I just cant. The Cowboys are so overwhelmingly statistically superior - especially at home - that even though they have played inferior competition it is too high of a standard deviation of outcomes for me to bet comfortably either way. A lot of different outcomes could happen tonight. I will watch from the sidelines. GL all
I absolutely agree. Also, Van after running your numbers do you take head coaches into consideration? This year really sticks out with more bone headed choices being made by the head coach. Pete may not have the better team although he is the better coach.
Quote Originally Posted by Verdict: Just take the under. Only bet to make in the NFL during prime time games. 28-9. Not to many people are betting sides during these games. By nature, I am not someone who will blindly bet something because of a trend unless I have a causation theory. 15 reds in a row at a roullette wheel will not get me to bet red on the 16th. Everyone knows the unders have been happening. Do you have a causation theory on why this is happening?
Kurt Warner has one.
He said that a player is at his absolute best mentally at noon on a Sunday. This has all to due with their routine/process. Get up, eat, go to stadium, warm up, get dressed, pre game walk through, then kickoff.
He said that TNF is absolutely too early in the week for anybody to play. If anyone disagrees with this, then they are insane. I personally never bet on TNF.
He also said that night games are terrible as well, as they throw off your routine. Most dudes are going to bed on any Sunday or Monday when it's about halftime if you're playing. Then he said something about waiting all day to play. Nerves kick in, you're over thinking everything you did in practice all week, etc...
I forget where I read this earlier this week. I always valued Kurt Warner's opinion on anything football. The dude is genuine.
I listened to a podcast earlier today that said, "the prime time unders are a thing, every year".
Albeit that this year it's hitting at astronomical rates, it's still profitable every year. So I do think that it's a profitable bet(in the long run) Van. It's not just this year, but it's noticeable because of how often it's happened this season.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Verdict: Just take the under. Only bet to make in the NFL during prime time games. 28-9. Not to many people are betting sides during these games. By nature, I am not someone who will blindly bet something because of a trend unless I have a causation theory. 15 reds in a row at a roullette wheel will not get me to bet red on the 16th. Everyone knows the unders have been happening. Do you have a causation theory on why this is happening?
Kurt Warner has one.
He said that a player is at his absolute best mentally at noon on a Sunday. This has all to due with their routine/process. Get up, eat, go to stadium, warm up, get dressed, pre game walk through, then kickoff.
He said that TNF is absolutely too early in the week for anybody to play. If anyone disagrees with this, then they are insane. I personally never bet on TNF.
He also said that night games are terrible as well, as they throw off your routine. Most dudes are going to bed on any Sunday or Monday when it's about halftime if you're playing. Then he said something about waiting all day to play. Nerves kick in, you're over thinking everything you did in practice all week, etc...
I forget where I read this earlier this week. I always valued Kurt Warner's opinion on anything football. The dude is genuine.
I listened to a podcast earlier today that said, "the prime time unders are a thing, every year".
Albeit that this year it's hitting at astronomical rates, it's still profitable every year. So I do think that it's a profitable bet(in the long run) Van. It's not just this year, but it's noticeable because of how often it's happened this season.
Warner is spot on imo....we are all creatures of habit/routine
Check out this quote from pete caroll regarding tonight's game...(this is a rare time both teams have back-to-back Thursday games)
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said of the altered practice schedule with back-to-back weekday contests, "We're right in the midst of it. It's just turning your brain around because you feel like you're on a different planet here. So yeah, there's a challenge to that. But that's why we tried to get right back into the routine so it feels the same regardless. It's kind of like a bit of a time warp and we just go at it."
Another factor regarding primetime is the primetime pressure of all eyes on me. The only game on the slate. Little added pressure imo.
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@undermysac
Warner is spot on imo....we are all creatures of habit/routine
Check out this quote from pete caroll regarding tonight's game...(this is a rare time both teams have back-to-back Thursday games)
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said of the altered practice schedule with back-to-back weekday contests, "We're right in the midst of it. It's just turning your brain around because you feel like you're on a different planet here. So yeah, there's a challenge to that. But that's why we tried to get right back into the routine so it feels the same regardless. It's kind of like a bit of a time warp and we just go at it."
Another factor regarding primetime is the primetime pressure of all eyes on me. The only game on the slate. Little added pressure imo.
If it is the short week, night game, out of routine.... Why so much this year as opposed to previous years? Im not sure - but that would be the next question.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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@TRAIN69
@undermysac
@dubz4dummyz
Well thought out answers.
If it is the short week, night game, out of routine.... Why so much this year as opposed to previous years? Im not sure - but that would be the next question.
@TRAIN69 @undermysac @dubz4dummyz Well thought out answers. If it is the short week, night game, out of routine.... Why so much this year as opposed to previous years? Im not sure - but that would be the next question.
That answer could be a multitude of things, and would require speculation on my part if I were to try and answer that.
But I could say that it's probably a natural down swing in offensive output in prime time games, for whatever reason/reasons. It should turn around at some point, if not this year maybe next?
I'd love to see the bet%'s and/or money handle on the totals of all these games this year. I'll step out on a limb and say that the books still get plenty of bets on the overs from the public. I haven't heard anything about them getting hurt by this astonishing under trend. But I suppose that books wouldn't share that type of stuff.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
@TRAIN69 @undermysac @dubz4dummyz Well thought out answers. If it is the short week, night game, out of routine.... Why so much this year as opposed to previous years? Im not sure - but that would be the next question.
That answer could be a multitude of things, and would require speculation on my part if I were to try and answer that.
But I could say that it's probably a natural down swing in offensive output in prime time games, for whatever reason/reasons. It should turn around at some point, if not this year maybe next?
I'd love to see the bet%'s and/or money handle on the totals of all these games this year. I'll step out on a limb and say that the books still get plenty of bets on the overs from the public. I haven't heard anything about them getting hurt by this astonishing under trend. But I suppose that books wouldn't share that type of stuff.
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