Mr. Bator, I am currently booking a large number of bets for the superbowl and am heeding your advice. This isn't my gig but one of my closest buddies had an "emergency" which required him to leave the area for the time being so I'm not all that familiar with adjusting lines. I share your sentament in that I believe the Giants will be blown out, but I reside and will be taking bets in the Boston area which means a lot of Patriots fans. What would you say would be the most reasonably high number I can drag the spread to, to try to entice as much NY money as possible. Thanks, Ben.
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Mr. Bator, I am currently booking a large number of bets for the superbowl and am heeding your advice. This isn't my gig but one of my closest buddies had an "emergency" which required him to leave the area for the time being so I'm not all that familiar with adjusting lines. I share your sentament in that I believe the Giants will be blown out, but I reside and will be taking bets in the Boston area which means a lot of Patriots fans. What would you say would be the most reasonably high number I can drag the spread to, to try to entice as much NY money as possible. Thanks, Ben.
MrBator- I know you're on the under 55 now. Do you plan on buying back on the over after the line drops? I like anything over 52. I won't be touching it more than that.
No, BigNiner, I'm keeping that under 55. The Giants won't score more than 13, so the Patriots can roll up as many as 41 if they feel like pouring it on and I'll still be good.
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
MrBator- I know you're on the under 55 now. Do you plan on buying back on the over after the line drops? I like anything over 52. I won't be touching it more than that.
No, BigNiner, I'm keeping that under 55. The Giants won't score more than 13, so the Patriots can roll up as many as 41 if they feel like pouring it on and I'll still be good.
by the way bator sorry to go off topic here...but im going to vegas for march madness on march long weekend with my fiancee...is there any hotels you would recommend ? im trying to find ones with good sportsbook comps if possible? not a big time gambler in any sense...maybe 100-1000 bucks...but the majority of my gambling done there will be done in sportsbooks. A buddy of mine went a couple of months ago and basically told me getting comp points in a sportsbook is next to impossible...im considering maybe getting rooms at mgm grand cause its reasonably priced....but im not sure as i havent been to vegas in years.....your thoughts would be much appreciated.
and again......congrads on a great weekend! your opinions are valued and are a great asset to this forum.
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by the way bator sorry to go off topic here...but im going to vegas for march madness on march long weekend with my fiancee...is there any hotels you would recommend ? im trying to find ones with good sportsbook comps if possible? not a big time gambler in any sense...maybe 100-1000 bucks...but the majority of my gambling done there will be done in sportsbooks. A buddy of mine went a couple of months ago and basically told me getting comp points in a sportsbook is next to impossible...im considering maybe getting rooms at mgm grand cause its reasonably priced....but im not sure as i havent been to vegas in years.....your thoughts would be much appreciated.
and again......congrads on a great weekend! your opinions are valued and are a great asset to this forum.
Mr. Bator, I am currently booking a large number of bets for the superbowl and am heeding your advice. This isn't my gig but one of my closest buddies had an "emergency" which required him to leave the area for the time being so I'm not all that familiar with adjusting lines. I share your sentament in that I believe the Giants will be blown out, but I reside and will be taking bets in the Boston area which means a lot of Patriots fans. What would you say would be the most reasonably high number I can drag the spread to, to try to entice as much NY money as possible. Thanks, Ben.
Ben, here's what I would do. I could jack up the line to something slimy like -14.5 or -15.5 or -16.5 but that's not going to help me much because people in the Boston area are going to bet on their team anyways. And, no matter what jacked-up number you offer them, they're going to beat you because the Patriots will win the game against the Giants by a minimum of 17 points. So rather than trying to entice Giants action by offering a juicy line (which people in that area won't really care about), I would instead line my pockets this way - I'd make them lay -14 but I'd tack on -120 juice. Then I'd go to a book like Matchbook or Pinnacle and bet an equivalent amount on New England -14 +120 or +125 or whatever it is in two weeks.
So let's say I accept $12,000 in Patriots wagers at -14 -120. If the Patriots cover I'm responsible for $10,000 in payouts, but if the Giants cover I win $12,000 from my customers. The problem is, the Giants aren't going to cover. So, I then wager that $12,000 they wagered against me on the Patriots -14 +120 or so at Matchbook or Pinnacle. So now, if the Giants cover (which they won't), I break even. If the Patriots cover (which they will) then I win $14,400 at Matchbook or Pinnacle and thus profit $2,400 with no risk. This is how I would choose to do things if I were caught in your predicament, booking bets in a region who's football team is definetely going to win their people the money. You can't stop the Patriots bettors from betting the Patriots and winning, but that doesn't mean you can't win, too, at their expense, get it?
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Quote Originally Posted by XIXBIGBenXIX:
Mr. Bator, I am currently booking a large number of bets for the superbowl and am heeding your advice. This isn't my gig but one of my closest buddies had an "emergency" which required him to leave the area for the time being so I'm not all that familiar with adjusting lines. I share your sentament in that I believe the Giants will be blown out, but I reside and will be taking bets in the Boston area which means a lot of Patriots fans. What would you say would be the most reasonably high number I can drag the spread to, to try to entice as much NY money as possible. Thanks, Ben.
Ben, here's what I would do. I could jack up the line to something slimy like -14.5 or -15.5 or -16.5 but that's not going to help me much because people in the Boston area are going to bet on their team anyways. And, no matter what jacked-up number you offer them, they're going to beat you because the Patriots will win the game against the Giants by a minimum of 17 points. So rather than trying to entice Giants action by offering a juicy line (which people in that area won't really care about), I would instead line my pockets this way - I'd make them lay -14 but I'd tack on -120 juice. Then I'd go to a book like Matchbook or Pinnacle and bet an equivalent amount on New England -14 +120 or +125 or whatever it is in two weeks.
So let's say I accept $12,000 in Patriots wagers at -14 -120. If the Patriots cover I'm responsible for $10,000 in payouts, but if the Giants cover I win $12,000 from my customers. The problem is, the Giants aren't going to cover. So, I then wager that $12,000 they wagered against me on the Patriots -14 +120 or so at Matchbook or Pinnacle. So now, if the Giants cover (which they won't), I break even. If the Patriots cover (which they will) then I win $14,400 at Matchbook or Pinnacle and thus profit $2,400 with no risk. This is how I would choose to do things if I were caught in your predicament, booking bets in a region who's football team is definetely going to win their people the money. You can't stop the Patriots bettors from betting the Patriots and winning, but that doesn't mean you can't win, too, at their expense, get it?
bator do you think teasing the pats -6 and under 61 would have a clear shot....i am seriously considering it....
awesome job today too boss...you are the man.
Thank you, djterryt. Look, in this case, don't bother teasing. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl by at least 17 points and the Giants won't score more than 13 themselves. You're good with a Patriots -12.5/under 54 parlay.
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Quote Originally Posted by djterryt:
bator do you think teasing the pats -6 and under 61 would have a clear shot....i am seriously considering it....
awesome job today too boss...you are the man.
Thank you, djterryt. Look, in this case, don't bother teasing. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl by at least 17 points and the Giants won't score more than 13 themselves. You're good with a Patriots -12.5/under 54 parlay.
by the way bator sorry to go off topic here...but im going to vegas for march madness on march long weekend with my fiancee...is there any hotels you would recommend ? im trying to find ones with good sportsbook comps if possible? not a big time gambler in any sense...maybe 100-1000 bucks...but the majority of my gambling done there will be done in sportsbooks. A buddy of mine went a couple of months ago and basically told me getting comp points in a sportsbook is next to impossible...im considering maybe getting rooms at mgm grand cause its reasonably priced....but im not sure as i havent been to vegas in years.....your thoughts would be much appreciated.
and again......congrads on a great weekend! your opinions are valued and are a great asset to this forum.
djterryt, your friend speaks the truth about comps in today's Las Vegas sportsbooks. They pretty much no longer exist. Perhaps if you're a guest of a particular hotel, and you're giving their sportsbook action every day - perhaps $5,000 per day minimum - well, then maybe......just maybe the sportsbook supervisor would make a call upstairs to get the okay on a free buffet comp for you. Mind you, that's a buffet comp for you, not your fiancee as well. So you get the idea on where sportsbooks comps are at these days. The MGM Grand is huge and distracting enough, but you and your lady will have a better time if you stay on the mid-Strip. I recommend Treasure Island if you want someplace very nice that won't cost you too much. Surrounding you will be the Mirage, the Venetian, the brand new Palazzo, and the Wynn. Caesars Palace and Bellagio are also close by. All those hotels I mentioned are expensive, but Treasure Island is less so but still right in the middle of it all. But be careful not to inadvertently mention the name "MrBator" at the sportsbook counter lest you instantly have your betting limits slashed to $50 per game. Okay, I'm just kidding about that part, but the rest is true.
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Quote Originally Posted by djterryt:
by the way bator sorry to go off topic here...but im going to vegas for march madness on march long weekend with my fiancee...is there any hotels you would recommend ? im trying to find ones with good sportsbook comps if possible? not a big time gambler in any sense...maybe 100-1000 bucks...but the majority of my gambling done there will be done in sportsbooks. A buddy of mine went a couple of months ago and basically told me getting comp points in a sportsbook is next to impossible...im considering maybe getting rooms at mgm grand cause its reasonably priced....but im not sure as i havent been to vegas in years.....your thoughts would be much appreciated.
and again......congrads on a great weekend! your opinions are valued and are a great asset to this forum.
djterryt, your friend speaks the truth about comps in today's Las Vegas sportsbooks. They pretty much no longer exist. Perhaps if you're a guest of a particular hotel, and you're giving their sportsbook action every day - perhaps $5,000 per day minimum - well, then maybe......just maybe the sportsbook supervisor would make a call upstairs to get the okay on a free buffet comp for you. Mind you, that's a buffet comp for you, not your fiancee as well. So you get the idea on where sportsbooks comps are at these days. The MGM Grand is huge and distracting enough, but you and your lady will have a better time if you stay on the mid-Strip. I recommend Treasure Island if you want someplace very nice that won't cost you too much. Surrounding you will be the Mirage, the Venetian, the brand new Palazzo, and the Wynn. Caesars Palace and Bellagio are also close by. All those hotels I mentioned are expensive, but Treasure Island is less so but still right in the middle of it all. But be careful not to inadvertently mention the name "MrBator" at the sportsbook counter lest you instantly have your betting limits slashed to $50 per game. Okay, I'm just kidding about that part, but the rest is true.
Bator: It's always very interesting to read your views/opinions and your bets too! I'm here in Europe and fell asleep at halftime of the Giants game. And since you get to see a lot more games than I do, I'd like to pick your brain a little on why you think the Pats offense will be able to put up 30+ points against the Giants defense (assuming the Giants score 13 --plus at least 17 margin of victory). Obviously they did that in their last game of the regular season, but the Giants have taken it to another level since then - who would have thought! Pluses for the Patriots I can see. Brady had an awful game last night. 3 Interceptions, that shouldn't happen to him in consecutive games, let alone BIG games. Manning on the other hand has NOT thrown a pick in the playoffs yet. This is the same guy who threw 20 all season. An average of over 1 per game. AND 3 ROAD DOG wins in a row! It's gotta end somewhere right?
Congratulations on a superb betting night in football! Keep it up!
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Bator: It's always very interesting to read your views/opinions and your bets too! I'm here in Europe and fell asleep at halftime of the Giants game. And since you get to see a lot more games than I do, I'd like to pick your brain a little on why you think the Pats offense will be able to put up 30+ points against the Giants defense (assuming the Giants score 13 --plus at least 17 margin of victory). Obviously they did that in their last game of the regular season, but the Giants have taken it to another level since then - who would have thought! Pluses for the Patriots I can see. Brady had an awful game last night. 3 Interceptions, that shouldn't happen to him in consecutive games, let alone BIG games. Manning on the other hand has NOT thrown a pick in the playoffs yet. This is the same guy who threw 20 all season. An average of over 1 per game. AND 3 ROAD DOG wins in a row! It's gotta end somewhere right?
Congratulations on a superb betting night in football! Keep it up!
WinnersOnly, the answers to your questions are YES and YES!!!
MrBator, congrats on the big day. Why are you so sure about NE covering the spread in the superbowl? You were on this same NYG team on week 17 to beat NE. If I remember correctly you bet on the moneyline. What change since week 17? Yes, it was a regular season, in NY, where oddsmaker thought NYG wouldn't come out to play...but since week 17, NYG have been playing a LOT better. They have won 10 straight road games. Eli hasn't thrown a pick since that one on week 17 and he looks more like his brother now. While NE is still the same team since week 17 and still being overprice. They barely beat their opponents and most of them were still in the game in the 4th quarter in their home field.
I can see NYG moving the ball very easily on NE. Billichik will take Burress out of this game but Toomer and Boss are very capable. I'd love to know your logic behind NE so one day we can sometimes think like you. Thanks.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
WinnersOnly, the answers to your questions are YES and YES!!!
MrBator, congrats on the big day. Why are you so sure about NE covering the spread in the superbowl? You were on this same NYG team on week 17 to beat NE. If I remember correctly you bet on the moneyline. What change since week 17? Yes, it was a regular season, in NY, where oddsmaker thought NYG wouldn't come out to play...but since week 17, NYG have been playing a LOT better. They have won 10 straight road games. Eli hasn't thrown a pick since that one on week 17 and he looks more like his brother now. While NE is still the same team since week 17 and still being overprice. They barely beat their opponents and most of them were still in the game in the 4th quarter in their home field.
I can see NYG moving the ball very easily on NE. Billichik will take Burress out of this game but Toomer and Boss are very capable. I'd love to know your logic behind NE so one day we can sometimes think like you. Thanks.
MrBator, congrats on the big day. Why are you so sure about NE covering the spread in the superbowl? You were on this same NYG team on week 17 to beat NE. If I remember correctly you bet on the moneyline. What change since week 17? Yes, it was a regular season, in NY, where oddsmaker thought NYG wouldn't come out to play...but since week 17, NYG have been playing a LOT better. They have won 10 straight road games. Eli hasn't thrown a pick since that one on week 17 and he looks more like his brother now. While NE is still the same team since week 17 and still being overprice. They barely beat their opponents and most of them were still in the game in the 4th quarter in their home field.
I can see NYG moving the ball very easily on NE. Billichik will take Burress out of this game but Toomer and Boss are very capable. I'd love to know your logic behind NE so one day we can sometimes think like you. Thanks.
i think you just answered your own question. the majority are thinking exactly what you wrote.
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Quote Originally Posted by THAmanRP:
MrBator, congrats on the big day. Why are you so sure about NE covering the spread in the superbowl? You were on this same NYG team on week 17 to beat NE. If I remember correctly you bet on the moneyline. What change since week 17? Yes, it was a regular season, in NY, where oddsmaker thought NYG wouldn't come out to play...but since week 17, NYG have been playing a LOT better. They have won 10 straight road games. Eli hasn't thrown a pick since that one on week 17 and he looks more like his brother now. While NE is still the same team since week 17 and still being overprice. They barely beat their opponents and most of them were still in the game in the 4th quarter in their home field.
I can see NYG moving the ball very easily on NE. Billichik will take Burress out of this game but Toomer and Boss are very capable. I'd love to know your logic behind NE so one day we can sometimes think like you. Thanks.
i think you just answered your own question. the majority are thinking exactly what you wrote.
Since you do feel EXTREMELY confident on the pats..how many units will you be dropping on the pats minus the points?bigger than your conference championship games?
MUCH bigger.
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Quote Originally Posted by AverageJoe1:
MrBator,
Since you do feel EXTREMELY confident on the pats..how many units will you be dropping on the pats minus the points?bigger than your conference championship games?
Always love to see your threads.....your followers see you as the Icon of the forum!!...so we always get good questions/responses in your threads.
The early square money (according to Jay Kornegay) is coming in as expected...the number that LVSC sent out was 14, the books put up 13, and out came the squares....I think that you will see 1/2 point moves every couple of days...up and down....the current estimate is that this SB will break the old record for betting and exceed $100M....this should keep the line on the side fluctuating.
Interesting yesterday that the Giant line closed at +8.5 after being stagnant for the week...Vegas made back the money that they lost on the Pats earlier in the day....
MY take....the best bet...and should be taken today...is the Under....that number is absolutely going to go down....and, whether the Giants cover or not....the most you will see is a total of 48-51.....Spagnola vs Bellichik...both will play for a shortened game and control.....neither team should have the ball for more than 6 possessions....even with 66% scoring efficiency for both teams....you're looking at a game with 4-5 field goals and 3-5 touchdowns......total....
Wish you all the best with your bets...
PS.....Agree with your hotel comments for the Canadian....but with the exchange rate in his favor, he could do a little better than staying at TI.....If he's young (and I think he is)...the Palms and the Rio would be good places.....less tourists from Iowa!!!
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Bator,
Always love to see your threads.....your followers see you as the Icon of the forum!!...so we always get good questions/responses in your threads.
The early square money (according to Jay Kornegay) is coming in as expected...the number that LVSC sent out was 14, the books put up 13, and out came the squares....I think that you will see 1/2 point moves every couple of days...up and down....the current estimate is that this SB will break the old record for betting and exceed $100M....this should keep the line on the side fluctuating.
Interesting yesterday that the Giant line closed at +8.5 after being stagnant for the week...Vegas made back the money that they lost on the Pats earlier in the day....
MY take....the best bet...and should be taken today...is the Under....that number is absolutely going to go down....and, whether the Giants cover or not....the most you will see is a total of 48-51.....Spagnola vs Bellichik...both will play for a shortened game and control.....neither team should have the ball for more than 6 possessions....even with 66% scoring efficiency for both teams....you're looking at a game with 4-5 field goals and 3-5 touchdowns......total....
Wish you all the best with your bets...
PS.....Agree with your hotel comments for the Canadian....but with the exchange rate in his favor, he could do a little better than staying at TI.....If he's young (and I think he is)...the Palms and the Rio would be good places.....less tourists from Iowa!!!
All New England backers in Super Bowl XLII should obviously wait and then wait some more for this line to drop, and it will. I'm also grabbing under 55 right now.
Congratualtions to the New York Giants, who in winning three consecutive road playoff games have taken the same path to the Super Bowl once traveled by the 1985 New England Patriots. Say, what ever happened to them in the Super Bowl?......
MrBator,
What number are you targeting for taking the Pats as I see this spread fluctuating both ways over the next 2 weeks?
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
All New England backers in Super Bowl XLII should obviously wait and then wait some more for this line to drop, and it will. I'm also grabbing under 55 right now.
Congratualtions to the New York Giants, who in winning three consecutive road playoff games have taken the same path to the Super Bowl once traveled by the 1985 New England Patriots. Say, what ever happened to them in the Super Bowl?......
MrBator,
What number are you targeting for taking the Pats as I see this spread fluctuating both ways over the next 2 weeks?
MR Bator, what line do you think is good to start pounding new england. Pinnacle has it at -12.5 right now, should I wait. What number are you expecting at to unload.
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MR Bator, what line do you think is good to start pounding new england. Pinnacle has it at -12.5 right now, should I wait. What number are you expecting at to unload.
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