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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Ravens up seven go for two ?

    «First Previous 12
    dubz4dummyz
    rosswin97
    theclaw
    JassieJames
    bunny651
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    «First Previous 12
     
    dubz4dummyz
    dubz4dummyz
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2024 - 3:17 PM ET #26

    @Biscuiteater1

     Right....

     

    I'm talking about the scenario of being up by 7 instead of 8 and losing on the other team successfully going for 2 instead of tying it up with the XP

     

    Goin up 8 you are just forcing them to go for 2 as opposed to giving them the option to tie or go for the win if only up by 7...chances are Jimmy kicks the XP and goes to OT...hes on the conservative side

    Reply

    @Biscuiteater1

     Right....

     

    I'm talking about the scenario of being up by 7 instead of 8 and losing on the other team successfully going for 2 instead of tying it up with the XP

     

    Goin up 8 you are just forcing them to go for 2 as opposed to giving them the option to tie or go for the win if only up by 7...chances are Jimmy kicks the XP and goes to OT...hes on the conservative side

     
    dubz4dummyz
    dubz4dummyz
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2024 - 3:18 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by buddygurt:

    Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win: Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: Quote Originally Posted by worm23: Quote Originally Posted by Ace of Spades: Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97: @meknowno   risk outweighs reward plenty of time left anyway Actually it's the opposite.  The risk of going from 8 to 7 is neglible, COMPARED to the reward of a 2-possession game in the 4th Q.  Same as if they were up 10 and tried to push to 12.   This is the correct answer.  Math is hard for most Not the way I see it, you go up 8 and cant be beat by a TD and conversion, go up 7 and you can. Why put yourself in position to possibly lose. This is the answer. When you are only up by 7 you are in a position to possibly lose the game. When you’re up by 8 you cannot be beat in less than two possessions.   So its risky to go up 9 instead of kicking to go up 8, but not risky to go for the 2 to take the lead instead of kicking to tie?

     

    an_light

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by buddygurt:

    Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win: Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: Quote Originally Posted by worm23: Quote Originally Posted by Ace of Spades: Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97: @meknowno   risk outweighs reward plenty of time left anyway Actually it's the opposite.  The risk of going from 8 to 7 is neglible, COMPARED to the reward of a 2-possession game in the 4th Q.  Same as if they were up 10 and tried to push to 12.   This is the correct answer.  Math is hard for most Not the way I see it, you go up 8 and cant be beat by a TD and conversion, go up 7 and you can. Why put yourself in position to possibly lose. This is the answer. When you are only up by 7 you are in a position to possibly lose the game. When you’re up by 8 you cannot be beat in less than two possessions.   So its risky to go up 9 instead of kicking to go up 8, but not risky to go for the 2 to take the lead instead of kicking to tie?

     

    an_light

     
    dubz4dummyz
    dubz4dummyz
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2024 - 3:20 PM ET #28

    @brn2loslive2win

     Right but the other team has to be willing to take that risk to lose or win the game on a 2-pt conversion....90% of coaches are kicking the XP and tying it...Jim is pretty conservative so he most likely would have kicked the XP for OT if the scenario had actually played out

    Reply

    @brn2loslive2win

     Right but the other team has to be willing to take that risk to lose or win the game on a 2-pt conversion....90% of coaches are kicking the XP and tying it...Jim is pretty conservative so he most likely would have kicked the XP for OT if the scenario had actually played out

     
    rosswin97
    rosswin97
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2024 - 5:08 PM ET #29

    @Ace of Spades

     

     agree to disagree, they didnt convert an most havent when theyve tried it. so they were only up 7 and still in the position to lose as you say, funny how everything has worked out fine all this time and if you or anyone was so smart why didnt you say the way teams have played up until now they were doing it all wrong.

    Reply

    @Ace of Spades

     

     agree to disagree, they didnt convert an most havent when theyve tried it. so they were only up 7 and still in the position to lose as you say, funny how everything has worked out fine all this time and if you or anyone was so smart why didnt you say the way teams have played up until now they were doing it all wrong.

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2024 - 9:04 PM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:

    @theclaw  I think what is not being taken into consideration in your probability of winning % is that if you decide to go for 2 there and don’t get it, effectively only giving yourself a 7 point lead, that the other team can now score a TD and go for two themselves to take the lead and beat you. Just my opinion

     

    True. I think if I was coach I kick the extra point. Make them score and then convert the 2 pts to tie.

    But I do understand going for the 2 pts to seal the game.

    Maybe in certain situations  8d go for the 2 pts but it would need to be very specific situations.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:

    @theclaw  I think what is not being taken into consideration in your probability of winning % is that if you decide to go for 2 there and don’t get it, effectively only giving yourself a 7 point lead, that the other team can now score a TD and go for two themselves to take the lead and beat you. Just my opinion

     

    True. I think if I was coach I kick the extra point. Make them score and then convert the 2 pts to tie.

    But I do understand going for the 2 pts to seal the game.

    Maybe in certain situations  8d go for the 2 pts but it would need to be very specific situations.

     
    JassieJames
    JassieJames
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2024 - 9:09 PM ET #31

    Extra points aren't a given anymore. Look at Washington at the end of the game. The difference between 7 or 8 doesn't mean much these days. 

    Reply

    Extra points aren't a given anymore. Look at Washington at the end of the game. The difference between 7 or 8 doesn't mean much these days. 

     
     
    bunny651
    bunny651
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    Posted: Nov. 27, 2024 - 1:20 AM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

    @brn2loslive2win  Right but the other team has to be willing to take that risk to lose or win the game on a 2-pt conversion....90% of coaches are kicking the XP and tying it...Jim is pretty conservative so he most likely would have kicked the XP for OT if the scenario had actually played out

    peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

    @brn2loslive2win  Right but the other team has to be willing to take that risk to lose or win the game on a 2-pt conversion....90% of coaches are kicking the XP and tying it...Jim is pretty conservative so he most likely would have kicked the XP for OT if the scenario had actually played out

    peace_5

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