Posted:
#251
thanks and bol 
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Rare POY brewing in the Forecast for Week 9
Posted:
#253
Quote Originally Posted by NOmoose:
POY or not, hard for me to put any money on shitty teams.
But gl, hope you hit it!
That's the thing.. Detroit isn't a shitty team anymore.. They got screwed over against Chicago and against GB and the rest of their losses were also close.. Most people look at them and instantly see the 2-5 record and think it's the terrible old Lions, but if they were 4-3 the perception would be different. They have a better than average offense and their defense is coming along. Their only major problem is that they tend to give up the big play, the Jets aren't really a big play offense..
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Posted:
#254
Things have been relatively peaceful in my threads that I post once a week on here during the football season the last few years until this week, which is understandable because of the rare play.
There sure are a lot of conspiracy theorist out here. Let me be honest with you and clarify a few things, I would get absolutely no satisfaction whatsoever being a "tout". I post my plays on here for leisure and entertainment, because it's a great community and to hopefully help a few people that might be up in the air on a play or two. I typically post all my plays once a week that are far from a used car salesman approach (act like each and every one of my picks is the grand finale) and rarely go into too much depth on why I make the picks that I do unless a few questions are asked. I research on my own time, and don't feel like it's necessary to try and persuade anyone through personal analysis and figures to make the same plays because it's the only way to go. If I have helped anyone, it's more than likely been because they trust me based on my documented record and moderate insight I may have provided, rather than persuasively trying to get people to make the same plays. In this case, this POY is rare for me, and I haven't made one in almost two years (real tout like, right?).
I fully understand that I am not going to get every game right betting the whole card, and where I capped a game one way, there's one of you that capped it at another angle and got it right. I have never talked about bankroll management and all that other non-sense you see "touts" do, and I am far from fitting the profile of being one, or wanting to be one, so let's drop all that non-sense right now. I really don't think it's too fair based on how I have handled myself on here to be accused of this tout crap. My goals are the same every year, play the whole card-every game and hope for 60-65% at the end of the season and have fun, so far, so good. Most "wannabe" touts would have made a run for the door after clipping over 60 percent ATS capping every game for the entire football season, don't you think? Not this guy, it's not in my character.
Some of you need to relax out there and quit taking things so serious with your wagers if someone is on the opposite side. It's nothing personal. Jets backers won't be empty handed if things get sour on the play, just know that this is what my avatar will look like for the forecast next week if things get ugly
https://oi52.tinypic.com/vdpmdk.jpg . I don't think it's going to come to that, but you never know.
I wish everyone nothing but the best on all of your cards tomorrow, and hope that overall, it's a profitable day for all Covers members out there
There sure are a lot of conspiracy theorist out here. Let me be honest with you and clarify a few things, I would get absolutely no satisfaction whatsoever being a "tout". I post my plays on here for leisure and entertainment, because it's a great community and to hopefully help a few people that might be up in the air on a play or two. I typically post all my plays once a week that are far from a used car salesman approach (act like each and every one of my picks is the grand finale) and rarely go into too much depth on why I make the picks that I do unless a few questions are asked. I research on my own time, and don't feel like it's necessary to try and persuade anyone through personal analysis and figures to make the same plays because it's the only way to go. If I have helped anyone, it's more than likely been because they trust me based on my documented record and moderate insight I may have provided, rather than persuasively trying to get people to make the same plays. In this case, this POY is rare for me, and I haven't made one in almost two years (real tout like, right?).
I fully understand that I am not going to get every game right betting the whole card, and where I capped a game one way, there's one of you that capped it at another angle and got it right. I have never talked about bankroll management and all that other non-sense you see "touts" do, and I am far from fitting the profile of being one, or wanting to be one, so let's drop all that non-sense right now. I really don't think it's too fair based on how I have handled myself on here to be accused of this tout crap. My goals are the same every year, play the whole card-every game and hope for 60-65% at the end of the season and have fun, so far, so good. Most "wannabe" touts would have made a run for the door after clipping over 60 percent ATS capping every game for the entire football season, don't you think? Not this guy, it's not in my character.
Some of you need to relax out there and quit taking things so serious with your wagers if someone is on the opposite side. It's nothing personal. Jets backers won't be empty handed if things get sour on the play, just know that this is what my avatar will look like for the forecast next week if things get ugly
https://oi52.tinypic.com/vdpmdk.jpg . I don't think it's going to come to that, but you never know.
I wish everyone nothing but the best on all of your cards tomorrow, and hope that overall, it's a profitable day for all Covers members out there
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GL
Posted:
#257
Quote Originally Posted by diop:
wow FF so many followers, ive never followed your picks but going huge on this POY plainly because u have a country of followers lol
GL to us all tmw making my biggest bet of my life tmw $600 on a single play :)
wow FF so many followers, ive never followed your picks but going huge on this POY plainly because u have a country of followers lol
GL to us all tmw making my biggest bet of my life tmw $600 on a single play :)
Hopefully you are putting that bet on Chicago/Buffalo over 40.5.
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Posted:
#258
Wow I actually read this entire thread, crazy stuff.
Floyd thanks for posting your reasoning, impressive streak you got going and pretty impressive that you cap the entire card. If you ever get bored and have nothing to do, cap an entire college card one weekend that would be epic haha.
Anyway I know you have a lot of dogs this week, I'm actually the opposite, kind of worried about it. I have the Jets for some of the reasons others state earlier but I definitely know the Lions are a better team this season, Suh is the real deal, I've always loved Best though it's unfortunate he can't stay healthy, and Detroit at home is tough to go against. I also never drank the Jets kool-aid, nevertheless I do see the Jets giving the Detroit offense a few problems, and I can't see the Lions stopping the run effectively. The Jets are the smallest of my plays, Chiefs and Pats are the largest, thus I wish the Lions win straight up and you hit your POY, and hopefully Chiefs and Pats cover.
Best of Luck to you Floyd, Uriss, and the rest of ya 
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Posted:
#263
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Theres been weeks that I liked 8 or 9 dogs out of 13 games but I know that there is no way I will hit all 8 dog plays & im sure you know you wont hit all 11 dogs either.
Theres been weeks that I liked 8 or 9 dogs out of 13 games but I know that there is no way I will hit all 8 dog plays & im sure you know you wont hit all 11 dogs either.
Gotta be careful when you break it down on a micro level instead of a macro level. There are going to be weeks where 12 out of 14 underdogs cover. In "theory" there should be half the dogs who cover, and half the favorites, but in a short sample, anything can happen. Of course you can say "there's no way he will hit all 11 dogs this week"....but would it make you feel better if he had 5 and 6? He would have the same chance (statistically) of hitting those 11 games. Each game is its own separate, random event. The favorite could cover the next 36 consecutive games in the NFL, but it wouldn't change the fact that statistically there are still 2 meaningful outcomes for the 37th game.
When I looked at my card two weeks ago, I "knew" I wasn't gonna go 1-7, but that's what happened.
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Good luck
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