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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    RAMS VS. PATRIOTS: There's no need to wait around two weeks to put a bet in. MEGA Write-UP!

    «First Previous 678 ... 101112 Next Last»
    scalabrine
    budwiser
    statfreak
    nature1970
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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:23 PM ET #126

    It's +2 on my site so that's just a push compared to the 1.5. 

    No harm no foul. 2/1.5 doesn't make a difference to me. I'm looking for them to win the game at such a number regardless.
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    It's +2 on my site so that's just a push compared to the 1.5. 

    No harm no foul. 2/1.5 doesn't make a difference to me. I'm looking for them to win the game at such a number regardless.
     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:27 PM ET #127

    Yeah the only 3's I see offshore are Bodog and Sports Interaction, which like William Hill kick out or limit all their sharp bettors.

    So, all books that don't want any clients who actually win $.  They are all notorious for that.

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    Yeah the only 3's I see offshore are Bodog and Sports Interaction, which like William Hill kick out or limit all their sharp bettors.

    So, all books that don't want any clients who actually win $.  They are all notorious for that.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:38 PM ET #128

    I hear ya. Bodog is the biggest square book of all time. I'd expect it to be 3 there.

    If it's all about 'playing numbers' I don't understand why every sharp doesn't have a Bovada account. 
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    I hear ya. Bodog is the biggest square book of all time. I'd expect it to be 3 there.

    If it's all about 'playing numbers' I don't understand why every sharp doesn't have a Bovada account. 
     
    statfreak
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:39 PM ET #129

    man i used to love Fedor... i realize he is pretty much done, didnt know the fight was today.

    I went big betting on Fedor vs Chael, as there was no way for me that an old chael could beat an old Fedor haha.

     

    Bader def. has a huge advantage over Fedor, i just cant put money on him as i cant help to remember him getting upset by a old tito ortiz.. good luck thou!

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    man i used to love Fedor... i realize he is pretty much done, didnt know the fight was today.

    I went big betting on Fedor vs Chael, as there was no way for me that an old chael could beat an old Fedor haha.

     

    Bader def. has a huge advantage over Fedor, i just cant put money on him as i cant help to remember him getting upset by a old tito ortiz.. good luck thou!

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:39 PM ET #130

    The money line bothers me. -132 pats +115 rams. Should be -132 then +120 it seems to discouraging the no and moving to the point spread _110 ..... where the spread is near pick. .... still thinking....

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    The money line bothers me. -132 pats +115 rams. Should be -132 then +120 it seems to discouraging the no and moving to the point spread _110 ..... where the spread is near pick. .... still thinking....

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:44 PM ET #131

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    If it's all about 'playing numbers' I don't understand why every sharp doesn't have a Bovada account.

    an_roll_laugh

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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    If it's all about 'playing numbers' I don't understand why every sharp doesn't have a Bovada account.

    an_roll_laugh

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:49 PM ET #132

    In case anyone is wondering about these books....

    William Hill=If you bet anything significant, we'll take your name and number and if you're any good, we'll start limiting you more and more until basically you can bet peanuts

    Sports Interaction=if you want to make a withdrawal, we have a problem son.  Maybe wait about 3 weeks and we'll close your account after you're relieved you finally got your $.

    Bodog=great flashy site and only bettors that you can scru.  Immediately kick out anybody else.

    It's their business models.  If I'm wrong on any of it let me know.

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    In case anyone is wondering about these books....

    William Hill=If you bet anything significant, we'll take your name and number and if you're any good, we'll start limiting you more and more until basically you can bet peanuts

    Sports Interaction=if you want to make a withdrawal, we have a problem son.  Maybe wait about 3 weeks and we'll close your account after you're relieved you finally got your $.

    Bodog=great flashy site and only bettors that you can scru.  Immediately kick out anybody else.

    It's their business models.  If I'm wrong on any of it let me know.

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:53 PM ET #133

    The best books are MGM and CG Technology imo.

    If you're in Vegas, that's who you want to bet with.

    good luck fellas. cool

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    The best books are MGM and CG Technology imo.

    If you're in Vegas, that's who you want to bet with.

    good luck fellas. cool

     
    Cap-Master
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:55 PM ET #134

    Quote Originally Posted by Win2017:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:

    Quote Originally Posted by Spooker:

    Quote Originally Posted by AlgerWong:

    NEWS: Someone just placed a $570,000 bet on LA RAMS ML in Caesars palace
    If this is true,  why has the line gone up for Rams. I know the games were tight today and the bookies got lucky again on the "upsets".
    the reason the line went up is because rams will cover. Remember the line moves up u take the dog. If it moves down u go favorite. The idiot public perception along with the greed of the bookies has made it this easy on us smart bettors. Truly this easy although I admit I use more than this to cap my games and determine winners.
    Cap-Master-  This trend wrong on NO-RAM game- NO -3.5 down to -3 and lost game.
    line was always 3 for all intents and purposes. Also there is no chance the trend will work every time..that would be too fucking easy. Even books wouldn't be stupid enough to slip that badly. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2017:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:

    Quote Originally Posted by Spooker:

    Quote Originally Posted by AlgerWong:

    NEWS: Someone just placed a $570,000 bet on LA RAMS ML in Caesars palace
    If this is true,  why has the line gone up for Rams. I know the games were tight today and the bookies got lucky again on the "upsets".
    the reason the line went up is because rams will cover. Remember the line moves up u take the dog. If it moves down u go favorite. The idiot public perception along with the greed of the bookies has made it this easy on us smart bettors. Truly this easy although I admit I use more than this to cap my games and determine winners.
    Cap-Master-  This trend wrong on NO-RAM game- NO -3.5 down to -3 and lost game.
    line was always 3 for all intents and purposes. Also there is no chance the trend will work every time..that would be too fucking easy. Even books wouldn't be stupid enough to slip that badly. 

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 12:57 PM ET #135

    I think I figured out the square book formula and why they went to 3....

    They have lower wages from sharps, right?

    So, lower wagers from sharps + tons of wagers from the tools that they own/public = balanced action

    The other books have higher limits.

    So, it's about balancing the risk.  They can't get the big $ on the Rams because they've already thrown out everybody who's any good.

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    I think I figured out the square book formula and why they went to 3....

    They have lower wages from sharps, right?

    So, lower wagers from sharps + tons of wagers from the tools that they own/public = balanced action

    The other books have higher limits.

    So, it's about balancing the risk.  They can't get the big $ on the Rams because they've already thrown out everybody who's any good.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:01 PM ET #136

    Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:

    man i used to love Fedor... i realize he is pretty much done, didnt know the fight was today.

    I went big betting on Fedor vs Chael, as there was no way for me that an old chael could beat an old Fedor haha.

     

    Bader def. has a huge advantage over Fedor, i just cant put money on him as i cant help to remember him getting upset by a old tito ortiz.. good luck thou!


    That was EIGHT years ago. Tito wasn't OLD then. He was essentially the same age Bader is NOW. Have Bader fight Tito today and see what happens!
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    Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:

    man i used to love Fedor... i realize he is pretty much done, didnt know the fight was today.

    I went big betting on Fedor vs Chael, as there was no way for me that an old chael could beat an old Fedor haha.

     

    Bader def. has a huge advantage over Fedor, i just cant put money on him as i cant help to remember him getting upset by a old tito ortiz.. good luck thou!


    That was EIGHT years ago. Tito wasn't OLD then. He was essentially the same age Bader is NOW. Have Bader fight Tito today and see what happens!
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:01 PM ET #137

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    The best books are MGM and CG Technology imo.

    If you're in Vegas, that's who you want to bet with.

    good luck fellas. cool


    Imperial Palace was the place where i used to go quite a lot during the NFL postseasons. They gave you comp. for 200 bucks play, free dinner buffet just around the other side of the 2nd floor. Small book space but they had one of the best NFL playoff props in the Strip in the 80-90's.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    The best books are MGM and CG Technology imo.

    If you're in Vegas, that's who you want to bet with.

    good luck fellas. cool


    Imperial Palace was the place where i used to go quite a lot during the NFL postseasons. They gave you comp. for 200 bucks play, free dinner buffet just around the other side of the 2nd floor. Small book space but they had one of the best NFL playoff props in the Strip in the 80-90's.  
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:03 PM ET #138

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    I think I figured out the square book formula and why they went to 3....

    They have lower wages from sharps, right?

    So, lower wagers from sharps + tons of wagers from the tools that they own/public = balanced action

    The other books have higher limits.

    So, it's about balancing the risk.  They can't get the big $ on the Rams because they've already thrown out everybody who's any good.


    They don't even have to balance risk. 3 is ludicrous, plain and simple. 

    Reminds me of the Ravens being +2 vs. the Giants and they came out and destroyed them. After the game everyone pondered "Who made THAT line??"
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    I think I figured out the square book formula and why they went to 3....

    They have lower wages from sharps, right?

    So, lower wagers from sharps + tons of wagers from the tools that they own/public = balanced action

    The other books have higher limits.

    So, it's about balancing the risk.  They can't get the big $ on the Rams because they've already thrown out everybody who's any good.


    They don't even have to balance risk. 3 is ludicrous, plain and simple. 

    Reminds me of the Ravens being +2 vs. the Giants and they came out and destroyed them. After the game everyone pondered "Who made THAT line??"
     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:14 PM ET #139

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    The best books are MGM and CG Technology imo. If you're in Vegas, that's who you want to bet with. good luck fellas.
    Imperial Palace was the place where i used to go quite a lot during the NFL postseasons. They gave you comp. for 200 bucks play, free dinner buffet just around the other side of the 2nd floor. Small book space but they had one of the best NFL playoff props in the Strip in the 80-90's.

    Oh man I used to love that place...remember the tv's in the back?!  I could sit back there and watch games without the crowd. 

    Course they tore it down for the Linq.

    Venetian/red room is maybe the best place to watch games.  Not too crowded, big screens, great book.

    Westgate is too scrupulous and penny-pinching for my tastes, and only one book far from the Strip.  But as far as watching the Super Bowl goes, the Elvis theatre USED to be the best-but now they have to limit who can go in there because so many people are trying now.

    So many degenerate memories... an_roll_laugh

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    The best books are MGM and CG Technology imo. If you're in Vegas, that's who you want to bet with. good luck fellas.
    Imperial Palace was the place where i used to go quite a lot during the NFL postseasons. They gave you comp. for 200 bucks play, free dinner buffet just around the other side of the 2nd floor. Small book space but they had one of the best NFL playoff props in the Strip in the 80-90's.

    Oh man I used to love that place...remember the tv's in the back?!  I could sit back there and watch games without the crowd. 

    Course they tore it down for the Linq.

    Venetian/red room is maybe the best place to watch games.  Not too crowded, big screens, great book.

    Westgate is too scrupulous and penny-pinching for my tastes, and only one book far from the Strip.  But as far as watching the Super Bowl goes, the Elvis theatre USED to be the best-but now they have to limit who can go in there because so many people are trying now.

    So many degenerate memories... an_roll_laugh

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:18 PM ET #140

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    They don't even have to balance risk. 3 is ludicrous, plain and simple. Reminds me of the Ravens being +2 vs. the Giants and they came out and destroyed them. After the game everyone pondered "Who made THAT line??"

    I agree with you +3 vs the Rams looks crazy.

    That said, Patrick Everson/Covers tweet from CG Tech rep Bernanke is sharps and public both on Pats.  Incredulous it's moved 3.5 points already.  He's never seen anything like it, and suggested it could go to 3 maybe past that but there would be buyback.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    They don't even have to balance risk. 3 is ludicrous, plain and simple. Reminds me of the Ravens being +2 vs. the Giants and they came out and destroyed them. After the game everyone pondered "Who made THAT line??"

    I agree with you +3 vs the Rams looks crazy.

    That said, Patrick Everson/Covers tweet from CG Tech rep Bernanke is sharps and public both on Pats.  Incredulous it's moved 3.5 points already.  He's never seen anything like it, and suggested it could go to 3 maybe past that but there would be buyback.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:20 PM ET #141

    That is insane.

    If the Pats was the 3:30 Game and the Rams were the 6:30 game, I guarantee this line could still be a pickum, where the books wisely opened it (because they didn't think the recency effect of the Pats Overtime drive, so similar to the Falcons SB drive in OT, would have THIS much of an impact on both squares and more surprisingly alleged sharps!)
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    That is insane.

    If the Pats was the 3:30 Game and the Rams were the 6:30 game, I guarantee this line could still be a pickum, where the books wisely opened it (because they didn't think the recency effect of the Pats Overtime drive, so similar to the Falcons SB drive in OT, would have THIS much of an impact on both squares and more surprisingly alleged sharps!)
     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:20 PM ET #142

    Once upon a time.  A friend of ours was discharged he could place nets for us even if we were overseas. We had at that time ability to run a contuois deficit In our bank account cause the bank had a guarantee pay check from the feds...oh the good times.

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    Once upon a time.  A friend of ours was discharged he could place nets for us even if we were overseas. We had at that time ability to run a contuois deficit In our bank account cause the bank had a guarantee pay check from the feds...oh the good times.

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 1:28 PM ET #143

    Agree and what also is huge of course is the public's perception that the Rams don't deserve to be in the Super Bowl...and they don't.  Saints got screwed, Rams were gifted.

    Does that matter for this game?  No. But that's the recency bias going on.

     

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    Agree and what also is huge of course is the public's perception that the Rams don't deserve to be in the Super Bowl...and they don't.  Saints got screwed, Rams were gifted.

    Does that matter for this game?  No. But that's the recency bias going on.

     

     
    statfreak
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 2:08 PM ET #144

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:

    man i used to love Fedor... i realize he is pretty much done, didnt know the fight was today. I went big betting on Fedor vs Chael, as there was no way for me that an old chael could beat an old Fedor haha.   Bader def. has a huge advantage over Fedor, i just cant put money on him as i cant help to remember him getting upset by a old tito ortiz.. good luck thou!
    That was EIGHT years ago. Tito wasn't OLD then. He was essentially the same age Bader is NOW. Have Bader fight Tito today and see what happens!

     

    an_roll_laugh hahaha youre right... its just like that in my memory: new prospect vs washed out Tito that posed no threat to Bader on the feet or groiund

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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:

    man i used to love Fedor... i realize he is pretty much done, didnt know the fight was today. I went big betting on Fedor vs Chael, as there was no way for me that an old chael could beat an old Fedor haha.   Bader def. has a huge advantage over Fedor, i just cant put money on him as i cant help to remember him getting upset by a old tito ortiz.. good luck thou!
    That was EIGHT years ago. Tito wasn't OLD then. He was essentially the same age Bader is NOW. Have Bader fight Tito today and see what happens!

     

    an_roll_laugh hahaha youre right... its just like that in my memory: new prospect vs washed out Tito that posed no threat to Bader on the feet or groiund

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 2:22 PM ET #145

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

     Oh man I used to love that place...remember the tv's in the back?!  I could sit back there and watch games without the crowd. 

    Course they tore it down for the Linq.

    Venetian/red room is maybe the best place to watch games.  Not too crowded, big screens, great book.

    Westgate is too scrupulous and penny-pinching for my tastes, and only one book far from the Strip.  But as far as watching the Super Bowl goes, the Elvis theatre USED to be the best-but now they have to limit who can go in there because so many people are trying now.

    So many degenerate memories... an_roll_laugh


    yup, memory still serves well for me that TV room sits back from the sportsbook counter. Not particularly big but was just well fitted for the locals and few visitors. 

    Met a friend in the Caesar's Palace Sportsbook, who passed away quite a few years ago, was also a degenerate at the time of late '80s. He always drove from S. Cal. to Vegas during the NFL postseasons. flat $200 a bet and hung around the outside counter for most of the games, he was pretty solid on the games.

    geesh, i used to stay at Treasure Island, Imperial Palace, Mandalay Bay and Caesar's Palace.., but haven't gone back to the Strip for loooooooong time, there was no Wynn, Cosmopolitan... Westgate used to be Las Vegas Hilton. Does Flamingo Hilton still exist now? I took NY Giants spread vs Bills and watched that game there. I still won the game even if Scott Norwood made that last second FG, he missed that kick wide right as we know. btw, a guy sitting by my left side also took Giants spread had some serious drinks through out that game. i would say he had gulped down some 6 or 7 screwdrivers.      
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

     Oh man I used to love that place...remember the tv's in the back?!  I could sit back there and watch games without the crowd. 

    Course they tore it down for the Linq.

    Venetian/red room is maybe the best place to watch games.  Not too crowded, big screens, great book.

    Westgate is too scrupulous and penny-pinching for my tastes, and only one book far from the Strip.  But as far as watching the Super Bowl goes, the Elvis theatre USED to be the best-but now they have to limit who can go in there because so many people are trying now.

    So many degenerate memories... an_roll_laugh


    yup, memory still serves well for me that TV room sits back from the sportsbook counter. Not particularly big but was just well fitted for the locals and few visitors. 

    Met a friend in the Caesar's Palace Sportsbook, who passed away quite a few years ago, was also a degenerate at the time of late '80s. He always drove from S. Cal. to Vegas during the NFL postseasons. flat $200 a bet and hung around the outside counter for most of the games, he was pretty solid on the games.

    geesh, i used to stay at Treasure Island, Imperial Palace, Mandalay Bay and Caesar's Palace.., but haven't gone back to the Strip for loooooooong time, there was no Wynn, Cosmopolitan... Westgate used to be Las Vegas Hilton. Does Flamingo Hilton still exist now? I took NY Giants spread vs Bills and watched that game there. I still won the game even if Scott Norwood made that last second FG, he missed that kick wide right as we know. btw, a guy sitting by my left side also took Giants spread had some serious drinks through out that game. i would say he had gulped down some 6 or 7 screwdrivers.      
     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 2:59 PM ET #146

    Quote Originally Posted by joel00:

    One fun trend that favors the bet: teams that were favored by fewer than three points in playoffs games were 6-20-3 ATS (there were only two games that had a -1.5 line though).

    Great stat.  Also, teasing the small dog produces a winning leg almost all of the time:  27- 2 (93.1%)
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    Quote Originally Posted by joel00:

    One fun trend that favors the bet: teams that were favored by fewer than three points in playoffs games were 6-20-3 ATS (there were only two games that had a -1.5 line though).

    Great stat.  Also, teasing the small dog produces a winning leg almost all of the time:  27- 2 (93.1%)
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 4:06 PM ET #147

    Still waiting on Rams bettors to show up. 83% of the cash 80% of the bettors on the Patriots -2.5. #SuperBowl? ?



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    Still waiting on Rams bettors to show up. 83% of the cash 80% of the bettors on the Patriots -2.5. #SuperBowl? ?



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    NinjaNight
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 4:31 PM ET #148

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Great stat.  Also, teasing the small dog produces a winning leg almost all of the time:  27- 2 (93.1%)


    Super interesting. I'll probably tease Rams with some NBA team
    On a quest to be the very best
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    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Great stat.  Also, teasing the small dog produces a winning leg almost all of the time:  27- 2 (93.1%)


    Super interesting. I'll probably tease Rams with some NBA team
     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 5:20 PM ET #149

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    yup, memory still serves well for me that TV room sits back from the sportsbook counter. Not particularly big but was just well fitted for the locals and few visitors.

    Yep that Imperial Palace sportsbook was definitely for the locals. an_roll_laugh Nothing fancy about it.  A "buffet" as you called it, and some extra cheap food.  And last I checked "Legends" still played there...though the better one was at the Stratosphere imo.

    Flamingo is just the Flamingo, never knew it as the Hilton.

    Screwdrivers/getting drunk was part of the fun.  You could do anything there.  Offstreet was better fun.  If you're going to a strip joint don't go to Sapphire or Larry Flynt's Hustler Club, they both suck and are overcrowded with stuck up girls...LIttle Darlings sucked nude but no alcohol and girls seemingly young enough to go to junior high I don't think so!!!...Cheetahs used to be the best but then they went to smoking.  NOt sure where I would go now and I'm too old anyways an_roll_laugh

    Eventually to be honest I went there so much I was just there for business and lost out on the fun.  Saw just about every show.  Couldn't stand the plane rides and the people even after making money.  Town was great but I imagine with your buddy eventually the constant travel just sucked....

    Anyways we digress sorry fellas an_roll_laugh

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    yup, memory still serves well for me that TV room sits back from the sportsbook counter. Not particularly big but was just well fitted for the locals and few visitors.

    Yep that Imperial Palace sportsbook was definitely for the locals. an_roll_laugh Nothing fancy about it.  A "buffet" as you called it, and some extra cheap food.  And last I checked "Legends" still played there...though the better one was at the Stratosphere imo.

    Flamingo is just the Flamingo, never knew it as the Hilton.

    Screwdrivers/getting drunk was part of the fun.  You could do anything there.  Offstreet was better fun.  If you're going to a strip joint don't go to Sapphire or Larry Flynt's Hustler Club, they both suck and are overcrowded with stuck up girls...LIttle Darlings sucked nude but no alcohol and girls seemingly young enough to go to junior high I don't think so!!!...Cheetahs used to be the best but then they went to smoking.  NOt sure where I would go now and I'm too old anyways an_roll_laugh

    Eventually to be honest I went there so much I was just there for business and lost out on the fun.  Saw just about every show.  Couldn't stand the plane rides and the people even after making money.  Town was great but I imagine with your buddy eventually the constant travel just sucked....

    Anyways we digress sorry fellas an_roll_laugh

     
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2019 - 5:21 PM ET #150

    Patriots win by 1. I think it could come down to a 2 point conversion or missed extra point. Books would clean house if that happened. We’ll see......
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    Patriots win by 1. I think it could come down to a 2 point conversion or missed extra point. Books would clean house if that happened. We’ll see......
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