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RAMS VS. PATRIOTS: There's no need to wait around two weeks to put a bet in. MEGA Write-UP!

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Posted: #101

Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

I'll grant you it does seem like Brady has forever to pass the ball and by him not getting sacked very often shows the efficiency of his front O line..The one thing that should not be over looked is Brady's release time or time to throw ..Tom Brady times out at 2.61 sec. faster that last years 2.71 ...........In 2018 QB's with 25 or more TD's... only Ben Roethlisberger at 2.55 had a faster release... of note: Drew Brees was 2.59..So, although the front line protects Tom Brady by blocking well and deserves nothing,but praise.....I believe,,, it's Brady's fast draw (be it many shorter passes) is what has kept him successfully and at the top of the game ..

It's one thing if he is being pressured, then that quick release is helpful in getting the ball out before he's hurried, but that's not the case at all. Brady was hurried once in the KC game and it resulted in a roughing the passer penalty. One of the worst calls all playoffs.  Pressure that dude and he becomes Alex Smith.

 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

I'll grant you it does seem like Brady has forever to pass the ball and by him not getting sacked very often shows the efficiency of his front O line..

The one thing that should not be over looked is Brady's release time or time to throw ..Tom Brady times out at 2.61 sec. faster that last years 2.71 ...........In 2018 QB's with 25 or more TD's... only Ben Roethlisberger at 2.55 had a faster release... of note: Drew Brees was 2.59..

So, although the front line protects Tom Brady by blocking well and deserves nothing,but praise.....I believe,,, it's Brady's fast draw (be it many shorter passes) is what has kept him successfully and at the top of the game ..

Brady believes he can play 'til 50 - he never gets hit, he might have a chance. Every qb over 40 years old gets beat up and  are  gun shy when the rush gets around him. He has none of that from 2 decades of solid protection. His lineman have this to an art form, the 2 outside guys are 5 yards to the right and left and the 2 inside guys are 3 yards to the left and right - EVERY TIME in the KC game, he can see the entire field. It looked the same every time on the final drive. The dude is a statue back there and doesn't get touched. 
 
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Posted: #103
Agree,, to stop Brady ,,you have to put pressure on him, if you can..
Although,Brady was not so great under pressure in 2014 ..the year they won the Super Bowl..

Neverthless, not only does he have a fast release ..he's very accurate.
Brady’s accuracy percentage was 74.9 this season. He had the same accuracy percentage in 2014 when the Patriots won a Super Bowl. For context, it was 76 percent in 2017.

 
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Posted: #104

Quote Originally Posted by Killer_B:

Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

I'll grant you it does seem like Brady has forever to pass the ball and by him not getting sacked very often shows the efficiency of his front O line..The one thing that should not be over looked is Brady's release time or time to throw ..Tom Brady times out at 2.61 sec. faster that last years 2.71 ...........In 2018 QB's with 25 or more TD's... only Ben Roethlisberger at 2.55 had a faster release... of note: Drew Brees was 2.59..So, although the front line protects Tom Brady by blocking well and deserves nothing,but praise.....I believe,,, it's Brady's fast draw (be it many shorter passes) is what has kept him successfully and at the top of the game ..
Brady believes he can play 'til 50 - he never gets hit, he might have a chance. Every qb over 40 years old gets beat up and  are  gun shy when the rush gets around him. He has none of that from 2 decades of solid protection. His lineman have this to an art form, the 2 outside guys are 5 yards to the right and left and the 2 inside guys are 3 yards to the left and right - EVERY TIME in the KC game, he can see the entire field. It looked the same every time on the final drive. The dude is a statue back there and doesn't get touched.

 

EXACTLY!!!  the real genius here is Belichick, the O-line coach and the O-line players themselves.  Any pro quarterback with that much protection will find an open receiver and hit the open 4-8 yard pass. He's the most over rated QB in the history of the sport.

Dude should realistically be 3-5 in the SB if not for Pete Carroll and the worst play call in the history of the SB & the Falcons coaching staff falling asleep during the second half of that SB. Falcons up 28-3 late in the 3rd quarter decided to run the ball only 3!!! times the entire second half. Dude truly is the LOAT. Luckiest Of All Time. If history is any indicator, he will catch every possible break yet again in the SB.  Take the over bet on Suh being flagged for atleast 1 roughing the passer penalty. Literally any contact on Brady, whether legal or illegal will be called on Super Bowl Sunday. It's demoralizing for defenses.

 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by Killer_B:

Quote Originally Posted by scotty0129:

Pats will win this game.   110%.  Rams shouldn't even be in the Superbowl.   Don't overthink this.
Agreed 1M%. Rams don't even belong in this game. If they'd win the SB it's the most tainted of all time... The Patriots couldn't win after going 17-0 because of Spygate. This is 10x worse than that. I've been thinking about that robbery all week... The Saints should've walked off the field after that bs. Granted unprecedented but that fkg no-call was unprecedented as well. The NFL deserved having that nightmare scenario on their hands. The sports world would've went crazy on them when a team shows the stones to do something like that. It deserved it.

And this is why the line is as distorted as it is, public does not believe Rams should be in the SB, yet they are and it creates a BAD matchup for Brady & company, much different than the cake-walk the Chiefs presented to them.

 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Scal - I also like the Rams.  Mostly because I can point to the Patriots rushing defense as the key to the game.  I just don't see that Pats stopping the Rams rushing game on a consistent basis.

I haven't read through the whole thread to see how much of this has been discussed, but that is where I stand on it.

GL


That is a good point (and one I chose not to go after in the OP just because Gurley and a phantom injury? has been a mystery.)

But if Gurley is good to go, yes, valid point! 
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

Wade is definitely dependable

Wade sure wasn't dependable starting Rob Johnson over Doug Flutie in the Music City Miracle. an_roll_laugh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_zg-J0q42M

BOL with the you're Rams play Scal an_cheers


Watched it live. The greatest sports moment I saw with my own eyes.

Had the Bills won, Rob Johnson would have been a legend because he put the Bills in FG position with one shoe on the drive before.
 
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Posted: #108
PATRIOTS WIN. PERIOD.

NFL WANTS ITS OWN MICHAEL JORDAN.

THE MEDIA CRAVES THIS ENDLESS DEBATE TOPIC FOR YEARS OT COME.

6 RINGS EACH IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SPORTS.

WHO'S BETTER?

STOP OVERTHINKING THIS, GUYS. PATS WIN. 
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by WHATTAPLAY:

PATRIOTS WIN. PERIOD.

NFL WANTS ITS OWN MICHAEL JORDAN.

THE MEDIA CRAVES THIS ENDLESS DEBATE TOPIC FOR YEARS OT COME.

6 RINGS EACH IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SPORTS.

WHO'S BETTER?

STOP OVERTHINKING THIS, GUYS. PATS WIN. 

These teams are so equally matched of course Patriots have a decent chance of winning. Huge experience advantage too.

Doesn't mean its a fixed result.

I've said this in other places, it looks like we may have a Rams cover Patriots win situation on our hands. Maybe another Patriots comeback.
On a quest to be the very best
 
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Posted: #110

Good luck Scal. It should be a close game. 

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


These teams are so equally matched of course Patriots have a decent chance of winning. Huge experience advantage too.

Doesn't mean its a fixed result.

I've said this in other places, it looks like we may have a Rams cover Patriots win situation on our hands. Maybe another Patriots comeback.

then please STOP demanding that people provide a "fixed" pick BEFORE the game, since you will refute everything you hear.
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by WHATTAPLAY:


then please STOP demanding that people provide a "fixed" pick BEFORE the game, since you will refute everything you hear.

No, I'm interested if you can show me consistent results. Takes more than one game unless you're able to describe how it happens in great detail.
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Posted: #113
Thx

This is a great quote from the Athletic (don’t look for it it’s paid content)
that captures why this game will be different than the Chiefs game for the Pats:

Mainly:

1) Reid is not as dependable or astute a coach as McVay, McVay making up for his shortcomings when it comes to clock management and getting the most out of his players;

And 

2) the Pats being able to shut down all the Rams weapons like they did with the Chiefs (that it McVay is aware that will be the plan and will counter it to get sufficient offensive production)

After the two minute warning, the Pats moved the ball down the field, never using a timeout, and scored with just 42 seconds left in the game to take the lead 31-28. Trust me, had Belichick had the chance to run one or two more plays, it would have been ideal, but running back Rex Burkhead was not going to lie down on the one-yard line to make that happen. He scored on a four-yard run, and now the Patriots had to keep the Chiefs from scoring. And, as we all know, they weren’t able to do that — the Chiefs tied it up at 31 — but they did limit Mahomes’ time with the ball to only 32 seconds and one timeout, meaning the chances that they’d win the game on this drive rather than tie it and send it to overtime were miniscule. With these two offenses on the field, it’s understandably difficult to hold them on any drive, but Reid should’ve at least worked the clock more effectively during his drive to leave the Patriots a little less time as he knew that if he scored, New England would need a touchdown to keep the game alive.

Reid is always in a hurry to score. He loves to call pass plays, and his offense is dynamic, but often the clock becomes as much of an opponent as the team on the other sideline. He is 12-14 in 26 postseason games throughout his NFL coaching career.  I keep waiting for Reid to understand and appreciate how his play calling could help him win games and prevent his defense from being always exposed, but it never seems to happen.


The Chiefs lost at home because Reid cannot understand how to utilize the clock, and because five of his best players, Dee Ford, Justin Houston, Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were non-factors in the game. Ford’s greatest impact came at his own team’s expense, when he lined up offsides on an interception that would have won the game for the Chiefs. Houston’s impact was negated, and Jones was only able to bat one ball down all day, making no tackles. Hill had one catch, and Kelce had three, but all game the Chiefs offense struggled to get them the ball, which is classic Belichick. He was going to make sure someone other than those five beat the Patriots and he did.

 
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Posted: #114
This is definitely going to be the toughest game for the Patriots. The question is can they bring their best yet and deal with it? If they play like they did against KC they're going to lose this game. Rams are stronger than that.
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Posted: #115
Gronk looking like he's one hard tackle from entering a nursing home.

That's funny right there :)
 
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Posted: #116

Quote Originally Posted by WHATTAPLAY:

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

These teams are so equally matched of course Patriots have a decent chance of winning. Huge experience advantage too.Doesn't mean its a fixed result.I've said this in other places, it looks like we may have a Rams cover Patriots win situation on our hands. Maybe another Patriots comeback.
then please STOP demanding that people provide a "fixed" pick BEFORE the game, since you will refute everything you hear.
It's because you only call the fix AFTER the game when you can look at so and so play and say "see" and twist it into your warped theories. I am shocked, shocked mind you, that you are not a gazillionaire by now since you KNOW the fix is in.

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

This is definitely going to be the toughest game for the Patriots. The question is can they bring their best yet and deal with it? If they play like they did against KC they're going to lose this game. Rams are stronger than that.

The Patriots did have some key mistakes that they'll most likely cleanup for the Superbowl though like Brady's silly interception in the end zone from KC's 3 yard line or so, a pass going off Edelman's fingertips for an interception, etc. They can still play a much better game than they did against KC and there will be no homefield advantage for the other team this time.
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Posted: #118


Quote Originally Posted by jmw59:

Gronk looking like he's one hard tackle from entering a nursing home.

That's funny right there :)

He is! 

He was laboring up and down like field like he was Willie Mays on the Mets for god’s sake!

It was depressing (because the end is near for him) and extraordinary KC couldn’t cover him.
 
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Posted: #119
Helluva a write up Scal…... the minute I heard every single coworker say they got the patriots at -1 early.....it reminded me of all the kids that raced to get the Willy Wonka chocolate bars to get that golden ticket 
 
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Posted: #120

We’ll be dancing like Grandpa and Charlie Bucket after the Rams take this one down..
 
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Posted: #121
Epic writeup Scalabrine.  You deserve a beer. 

GW
 
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Posted: #122

Quote Originally Posted by WHATTAPLAY:

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

These teams are so equally matched of course Patriots have a decent chance of winning. Huge experience advantage too.Doesn't mean its a fixed result.I've said this in other places, it looks like we may have a Rams cover Patriots win situation on our hands. Maybe another Patriots comeback.
then please STOP demanding that people provide a "fixed" pick BEFORE the game, since you will refute everything you hear.

 

provide the excact script... you guessing a 50% side will never mean it was fixed man lol

 
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Posted: #123
Thanks guys.

If any of you are interested in MMA, there is a chalky bet tonight that is on the level of Floyd (you ate the chalk but won dearly) over Manny. Such a good line:

2019 Record: 3-2 +30 Units

Did you ever want to bet against Broadway Joe....on the Rams?

Did you ever want to bet against Joe Montana....on the Chiefs?

Did you ever want to bet against Kirk Gibson...on the Dodgers?...wait...forget this last one.


Tonight, you get that opportunity.

Simply put, this is the end of Fedor. He was fed two over the hill opponents in Mir (who is LIGHT YEARS away from his prime) and Sonnen (who is not even a heavyweight) in this Bellator tournament and will not be able to overcome Bader who at 35, is still in his prime, in this Finals match-up. 

Bader punished Matt Mitrione for three rounds, embarrassing him so bad, Mitriione made a youtube video post-fight admitting he was outclassed, as a mea culpa to his fans.

That is the same Mitrione knocked out Fedor in 30 seconds with one punch.

There is only one way Fedor is a long-shot at winning: keep Bader on his feet and land one of his haymakers.

Bader, a ground specialist, knows this is exactly what Fedor will do and will eventually grind him down, get him to the floor and overtake him. I really don't see this one going three rounds. I see Fedor going for it all early and if it fails, it fails. It's his only shot. 

And if Bader gets to his body he will go down and he'll punish him on the mat with Fedor covering up sending the great one out in apropos fashion...falling on his Russian sword.


 
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Posted: #124
Now to the line:

This was -390 just 48 hours ago and has plummeted to -260 now on Fanduel.

How? I can only think the squares see 'Value" in the great Fedor. Big mistake. Broadway Joe isn't on the Jets anymore folks. Fedor, equally so, isn't even close to what you knew of him.

They saw the same thing in an unwinnable fight when they took Pacquiao over Floyd as those odds dropped off a cliff as well.

This should be quick and painless for the all time great Fedor and if it isn't Bader will maul him on the mat.

While I'd like to bet exotics on this fight, -260 is so good there is no reason to. The squares have done their part to make this immensely profitable even with the chalk. I'll take the ML straight up:


DARTH BADER -260 over THE GREAT, IRREPLACEABLE FEDOR

26 Units to win 10 Units
 
 
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Posted: #125

Well it went to 3 at William Hill, Stations, and Coasts, the squarest books out there.


Sorry to say it may have been good to wait.

Nobody is betting on the Rams other than Covers an_roll_laugh

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