Raiders @ Patriots

YTD 7-5(+3.55)

Patriots -3.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Taking the Raiders here at +3.5 looks like the easiest decision on the entire board. Low hanging fruit if you will. And I can't say many bad things about the Raiders, I actually like the team this year. Bet them in week 3 against the Saints in New Orleans.

Although, this is a bad spot. 

The Raiders have not played an outdoor game yet this year. The Raiders have not played a noon game this year. The Raiders have left the west coast only once. They've played 2 at home, 2 otr, all indoors.

They are 3-1, and gave the Chiefs a run for their money last game. A division rival, we know how close those kind of games can be. Their 3 wins came against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Those teams are a combined 1-10 su(saints are currently playing, down 7-24).

The Pats road has been the polar opposite, #2 sos this year. 3 of their 4 games have been otr. @Seattle, vs Pitt, @Jax, @Buffalo. Brutal. Coming out of that 2-2, all while looking like a dumpster fire on offense is quite admirable. 

I don't know what Drake Maye found against the Bills, but he did. Confidence is huge for a young qb and he regained it. And I know how good he can be alla all of last year. 

Another point of interest is on the field. The Raiders have an incredible weapon in Brock Bowers at TE. And the #2 Michael Mayer is no slouch. The Patriots have defended TE's very well this year. Allowing 13 catches for 94 yards and no td's through 4 weeks.

I can get behind Vrabel here at home. Vs Klint Kubiak who was the Seahawks OC last year. Vrabel couldn't get revenge vs Mike McDonald in week 1, but gets another opportunity here vs the upstart Raiders first year coach.

It's not easy for me to lay a # like 3.5, old habits die hard.

@undermysac

 Definitely agree  a bad spot for the raiders bol 

@undermysac

 Pats is the play 

Good luck Sac.  

I agree that it's tough to lay 3.5. It's all mindset though, if the line opened -4.5, probably wouldn't hesitate

That's the way I look at it atleast

On the same side

Yep, agreed 

Good post. Markets move lines in most cases, injuries will too. Allowing other people's $ to get you a better line is never a bad strategy. Unless it's a really sharp group that's dialed in on a game. For instance, the Falcons last night.

In this case, I've been looking at the line since open. It hasn't budged at 3 books, nor has the juice. Fwiw

*Forgot to mention in my OP, I know about Mack Hollins most likely missing this game.

I concur with this play, the Raiders have been playing out of their minds since week 1, & after a big division game vs Chiefs which came down to the wire, & having to fly out to the east coast, Pats should cover. Good luck!

I agree Maye has some mojo on his side and hopefully it carries over. I won't buy the half point as it's a psychological thing with most people and expensive. 7.5 annoys me much more so I adopt the bet it and forget it attitude. 

Getting the rest of my card down now. Leaving for a fishing trip tomorrow. Not sure how my reception will be way up northern Wisconsin. 

I'm leaning on too many favs, scary.

Broncos -3.5(even) *1.00

This will undoubtedly be a wise guy spot on the Chargers. Home divisional dog, getting the hook, public will be on the Broncos.

Have you seen the Bolts o line and TE injuries. Looks terrible, frightening really. 

Here's a cool Sean Payton stat, the dude slow plays his poker hand better than anyone. 

Sean Payton holds an overall career coaching record of 6-8 with the Denver Broncos and 31-31 overall in the month of September.

Sean Payton has an all-time head coaching record of 54-17 (.761 winning percentage) in the month of October, which stands as the best mark in NFL history for any coach with at least 50 games played in the month.

The Broncos have played the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, and 49ers. A murderers row of coaches. And still 2-2.

I think they'll get a breath of fresh air here.

Dolphins +7(-105) *.75/.71

Dolphins ML +3.5(+150) *.25/.38

It's gonna be 87 degrees with 77% humidity at noon eastern time. The Phins will most likely wear white and make the Bengals wear black(or orange?)

The Bengals are 2-3 su in the last 10 years playing in the state of Florida. 0-2 vs Miami in that span. They'd be 1-4 in covering a spread of -3.5 in these 5 games.

They might be missing both starting WR's.

Both teams are on a bye the following week. One team should play balls out to savor a win, and avoid 2 weeks of feeling an 0-5 record. The other team might try to just "get by" a shitty team and make it to their bye to heal up.

Spot play. If I went over stats and rankings my wrists would be slit before I made it to the window.

Lions -4.5(-112) *.56/.50

No one wants the Lions after what they just saw. How the hell can you lay points on this team otr.

I'll dance with the ugly girl here.

Jared Goff is 9-1 su against the Cardinals. His lone loss was in his rookie year in 2016. 

Dan Campbell(minus his rookie year as HC) after a loss is 18-6 su.

14-2 su since 2023. They were 13-3 in covering a spread of -4.5 in this span.

The Lions are awful at covering TE's, McBride is a beast. The Lions D is shit, half unit play on all things considered. 

Good Luck 

I don't see anything odd about the line...NE played in superbowl, they just won at Buffalo... I would think 5 to 6. Raiders beat them last year at NE....maybe its an easy win here for them.... odds makers set a line to. Try and get even action. Maybe they found one....if raiders don't turn it over I think they can win .... I like that many love the -3.5. Just wondering why it hasn't went up...raiders have played well on east coast when they have. Had a good team.... like I said no turnovers. 

Best of luck on your plays 

Oh and already took arizona. System play. 5. 5.5. System play. They do well. 

@RUM151

 The line hasn't gone up on the pats because the public is on the Raiders.

Also I had a typo on my one Miami bet. It's a +3.5 alt line. I wrote ML in front of it and forgot to erase it. I was looking into betting the ML at first.

Love the card...had fins on my shortlist, will likely pull the trigger soon

Likely will take lions- and lions ml parlayed with a low alt over

@undermysac

 Nice write-ups. Surprised you will be on Denver. I think this is a good spot for Chargers. Agree with your take on the phins.

Good morning fine gents of covers. About to launch for a bass tournament. 

I couldn't help but notice that the books have been printing Raiders tickets all week, and the line hasn't moved...

Good Luck on all your plays 

GL Sac. The lions game will be an interesting one. The kind that really isn’t over until it’s over. Go phins!

GL this week Sac. The East Coast will have some wet weather on tap I don't think that will be ideal for Raiders and Cousins who is mostly an indoor QB now. I think he is subpar in these conditions if I remembered correctly..

If ya bring home the trophy pics please  

Taking a look ahead line for week 6:

Panthers +2.5(-115) *1.25/1.09

Panthers ML(+110) *.75/.83

The Eagles back from England, the Panthers off a bye. The Panthers are a better team in all 3 phases.

Bad spot for the Patriots coming off that huge win against the Bills.

@undermysac

Nice write-up on the Pats/Raiders. Convinced me. BOL 

GL I have them too @undermysac

Understand Fins are shit this year but if following trends:

Fins have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six pre-bye week games, allowing just 11.7 PPG