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Proof the public is terrible

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by rk1200:

80% or better ---  14-12 ATS (53.9%), yes the public has a winning record
 
70% - 79.9%  ---  18 - 18  ATS (50%)
 
below 70% ---   19-17 ATS  (52.8%)


either way those are losing bets and book wins...you can fade the public all you want you will still be in the ditch with those win percentages

 

I agree man. That is where u cant just bet against percentages. Its never that easy. Thats why I dont get why people do this. Its not the right way to fade the public

 
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Posted: #77
kashl- thats fine, ill continue to post my plays each week.  Remember I do not play more then 2 games a week in the 1 and 4 a clock  timeslots.  And I usually bet both sunday and monday night games regardless of percentages.
 
So if there are 6 games where the public is on at 80-100 percent levels I once again will only play  like 2 or maximum three of them.
 
I posted my plays last week
 
 only Green bay, Oakland......     I didnt bet the   Bears game, or pittsburgh game, or giants game  where the public was pouning all three of those teams.   Even though public pounds I still pick and choose my 2 games each weekend.
 
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Posted: #78
[Pro Football] Topic: Proof the public is terrible
collegegambler View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook

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Posted: 10/19/2008 5:46:58 AM
90 percent on the chargers over the Fins laying 6.5      Forget taking the points  Fins win the game outright.
 
week 2     Saints at Skins      public pounds saints  because of there  hyped up bullshit from all the predictors, and the skins are coming off a pathetic thurs night performance   Skins win and cover
 
week 1  Seattle at Buffalo     pulic loves seattle, they make the playoffs every year, buffalo is a perenial 7-9 team     buffalo in a rout
 
Gmen at Browns    GMen world champs, juggernuats etc..   Brownies  cant score cant do shit, only beat bungels  forget the plus  8    browns in a rout.
 
Green Bay at Tampa      Packers only loss at the time was to the  already crowned "super bowl Cowboys" LOL     tampa cant score, getting old    public pounds pack   30-21  tampa
 
Minny at Saints    Saints only laying 3????  minny was 1-3 no qb, no secondary  no problem  public on the saints ,   minny wins outright.
 
 
There are even  more examples    Squares do not win, public does not win.   
 
Its NFL sunday   fade any public percentage in the 80-100 percent range, especially 90 percent or more!!
 
So     Packers plus 1.5   and Raiders plus 3     Dont fuck around with the other games,  fade the shit as public and collect your dough.

 

Kashl this is just in response, to your message   Good luck this weekend

 
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Posted: #79
[Pro Football] Topic: Monday nighter
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Posted: 10/20/2008 6:47:08 PM
Pats coming off loss, public is on Denver at like 70 percent levels,  I think the pats will be able to run the ball, and bellicheck will scheme to disrupt Cutler.  
 
Pats minus 3    $60
 
good luck  everyone either side.
 
 
 
This is before monday night, my prediction of Pats running the ball, and playing great D was right on.  Sammy morris over 100yds in the first half.
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by rk1200:

80% or better ---  14-12 ATS (53.9%), yes the public has a winning record
 
70% - 79.9%  ---  18 - 18  ATS (50%)
 
below 70% ---   19-17 ATS  (52.8%)


either way those are losing bets and book wins...you can fade the public all you want you will still be in the ditch with those win percentages

 

I agree somewhat with this you cannot just plain fade the public and nothing else.

Now fading the public with the certain line movements and some insights on the game win at a high %.

Every fade is not going to work but the right situations arise like Cleve and NE on MNF,STL last week and Oak and GB this week which I bet all of them because they fell into place but even if they fall into place they DO NOT WIN ALL THE TIME.

 

 
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Posted: #81
Miami is a possible pland will be looking at it.
 
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Posted: #82
No i understand MJ,  thats why I bet against only 2 or at maximum 3 of the    5-6  huge pubic percentages plays. 
 
Last week huge percentage play games
 
jets at Oakland    I took oakland  $75
Colts at packers   I took packers  $100
Titans at chiefs    didint bet
Steelers at bengals  didnt bet
Lion at houston   didnt bet
Minny at CHi    didnt bet
 
 
thats all  I think if you pick and choose the right spots, then it is sucsessful,  in NFL football if you play more then 4 games a wekeend u will get killed, the key is picking the right situation spot, along with betting agasint the public   IMO.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #83
oh i had a ML parlay  with  KC and Cincy at plus  300 each   in which i bet $10 to win 150. Didint think they would win but at a 15-1 payout for only risking $10 i figured what the heck.
 
So by picking and choosing I went  2-0  fading the highest public plays.
 
I always throw in a crazy parlay that pays at least 10-1 or better.  It's always worth a shot, if your risking only $5 or $10 bucks..
 
 
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Posted: #84
Now in college I have  some  games that initially fit what I look for as far as line movement and public betting.I will be looking at closer to see if they are plays Toledo,Indiana,SJST,Kan ST,LSU,Rutgers,Kent,NCST,S.Miss,Louisville
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