playoffs??!!....round 3 angles

I'm glad you feel that way.

"Odd?"....who says betting or the weighing up of information in the realm of betting is "normal"

The people you worry about are those that say they are completely normal!......

Away conference playoff dogs playing their third playoff game, playing a team in their second playoff game.

9-13 ATS (-1.50), 6-16 straight up (-7.23), 11-10 o/u (-0.57)

If our away dog played in no playoff games the year before.......5-4 ATS (+1.22), 3-6 straight up (-4.78), 6-3 o/u (+0.17)........Lions

If our away dog played in 3 or 4 playoff games the year before........0-4 ATS (-6.25), 0-4 straight up (-9.50), 1-2-1 o/u...........    Chiefs 

@Indigo999

 Are these numbers here tickets or dollars wagered?  Thx

The king of covers contest is percentage of bets only....you can find it by clicking on the consensus portion of the website here.

https://contests.covers.com/consensus

Plays:  

1) ***Lions +6'

Adding:

2)  **Chiefs/Ravens UNDER 44'

PM me if you would; I need to send you something. Thanks

Friend request me, and then I can send and receive PMs from you.

With 66 percent on Det?  Appears to be a huge public dog. But,Id like to see them win. Great story.  I might tease em to 14 w KC. 

Yeah, I know.....I have grave misgivings about taking the Lions, not b/c I don't like them, but because I just finished off a huge rant about the fallacy of playing  public dogs......it is like the preacher that rails against immorality and then takes home one of the choir ladies who's married after the church service!....lol.

We'll see if the gambling gods punish me for this.....

In this playoff round, in this situation, where the road team is playing their 3rd straight playoff game and their present opponent is playing their second....when the road teams rushes for at least 100 yards, they've gone 6-2 ATS, covering by an average of 6 points/game....they've also gone 2-5-1 o/u.

AD and playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=1 and op:playoffs=1 and opp:playoffs=0 and RY>100

In the regular season away dogs that rush for greater than 100 yards in that game cover almost 66% of the time.....the Lions rushed for over 100 yards 7 out of their 9 road games this season, and the 49ers allowed over 100 yards rushing 5 out of 9 home games.

rushing yards>100 and AD and playoffs=0

Surprisingly, the Ravens allowed greater than 100 yards rushing 6 out of 10 home games this season.

Andy Reid in his career has gone 59-31 ATS as an away dog, which includes 20-9-2 ATS with the Chiefs, 16-15 straight up.

He's 5-1 ATS as an away dog after having played a playoff game the previous game.

John Harbaugh's success as a coach like Andy Reid has come mostly on the road...he's 2-3 ATS as a home favorite in the playoffs and 52-56 ATS in the regular season as a home favorite, whereas as he's 81-57 ATS on the road in his career.

Neither he, nor Lamar Jackson have played a home conference championship game.

I am taking the Chiefs.....

Plays:

1)  ***Lions +6'

2)  ** Chiefs/Ravens UNDER 44'

3) **  Chiefs +4

I am not convinced of Lamar Jackson's wherewithal to make it happen in a big game at home and I feel Andy Reid and Mahomes have the advantage over their counterparts.....of course there's a lot of data to support the Chiefs which backs my feeling about the game.

And, there's data to support the opposite sides of who I'm taking in both games....rarely if one does a deep dive into historical data is it 100% supportive of one side.....we've already had one person here that was incredulous that I went against some of the data that I uncovered......that is a fact of life for a sports bettor.

We do our best, we put in the time, and hope that the ball bounces our way...we know we will be wrong at times as handicapping is an incredibly humbling pastime.

Good fortune to you this weekend.

Thankyou AGAIN!!........................................................................gl

Maybe one last time I will make this point.

Teams off a bye in the playoffs their previous game would have been a top two seed until a couple of seasons ago, and now obviously only the top seed gets a bye.

Home favorites in this scenario which would be the conference championship have gone 19-16 ATS, 20-14 o/u

playoffs=1 and C and HF and p:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=0 and p:rest>11

Those teams with the greater or equal record their past 8 games have gone 11-16 ATS, 16-11 o/u....both of which the 49ers and Ravens qualify under.  In other words, "playing the hot team" is a negative EV play if they're the home favorite.

playoffs=1 and C and HF and p:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=0 and p:rest>11 and tS(W, N=8)>=oS(W, N=8)

If those home favorites that won more games than their present opponent their last 8 games, also average 120 yards rushing/game, this moves to 2-11 ATS (-5.85), 5-8 straight up (-0.77), 9-4 o/u.

playoffs=1 and C and HF and p:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=0 and p:rest>11 and tS(W, N=8)>=oS(W, N=8) and tA(RY)>120

Which means rushing stats at home in the playoffs have a negative value, or there is an expected regression when the playoffs come a'callin'.  It is why Lamar Jackson throughout his career has been an awesome play on the road and a mediocre play at home and hasn't done well in the playoffs in the past.  It is why Kyle Shanahan, (though he's done well in the playoffs) during the regular season has covered 45% of his games at home and 58% of them on the road.

Rushing teams have value on the road, but not at home in the playoffs.

We'll talk more about some angles that relate to the Super Bowl next week.....i have 9-4, 16-2, 14-8 and 14-3 ATS Super Bowl angles, most of them regressive in nature.

Best Weighted DVOA thru Divisional Round, 1981-2023

Year

Team

WEI DVOA

Result

2023

BAL

55.2%

--

1985

CHI

49.4%

Won SB

1996

GB

45.8%

Won SB

1991

WAS

45.6%

Won SB

2020

BUF

44.6%

Lost CCG

1989

SF

44.4%

Won SB

2007

NE

43.9%

Lost SB

1997

GB

43.8%

Lost SB

1992

DAL

43.6%

Won SB

1994

SF

43.5%

Won SB

2012

NE

43.4%

Lost CCG

2019

KC

42.4%

Won SB

2013

SEA

39.4%

Won SB

1986

NYG

39.1%

Won SB

004

NE

38.4%

Won SB

That chart did not come out as expected. Do you do data with DVOA? Ravens highest rated weighted DVOA team in 40+ years through divisional round. 13/15 of the top teams made the SB.

I am aware of  DVOA weighted rankings and the fact that both the 49ers and Ravens are among the highest rated teams ever.

The best regular season team often does not win it all, especially so the past 20 years,  or at least they don't cover if they make it to the Super Bowl....we'll see how it all works out.

@Indigo999

 Post 22 is hard to depend on "where the money is" data as the numbers are not official. Basically its hard to know you are getting true numbers 

Regarding betting unders....typically (75%+ of the time) wait til gsmday if u want the under as the public will typically steam the over on GameDay.

Overs more tricky.  Injuries and weather can plummet a total thru the week....but the sharps/early public can also bet it higher before GameDay 

Obviously none of that set in stone but a general guideline

 What about #1 vs #3 trends? 

And what about teams that had 1st round bye vs teams who didn't?...think u covered this in post #29

We have both situations in both games 

Last I heard a #1 seed wins the SB just over 53% of the time a #2 just ov 21% a #3 just ov4% a #4 12% a #5&6 about 4%, I could be wrong I have been known to wrong before (that had to be 25-35 years ago though). Put a name in a hat pull the team out and you got a 1 in 4 chance. Do you like those odds?

9-2 since 1990. 25-4 since '77 I think. ats wise I have to guess around over 50% maybe 55?

There is no seeding language in the database, we only can know by using the query language if a team had a bye or not, and if they did it means they were a top two seed,...and then of course if those two teams played the home team would be the highest seed.

I have given this thread about the most definitive situational and  historical  synopsis you're going to find anywhere.

And, we've seen there's very good data to back any of the four teams to cover this weekend.  And with this data I've put out, inevitably there will be people that ask, "how can you take team A?", with the reason being that everyone processes data in a different way.  I have people that are saying to me, "it's team A's opponent!".....as if I have insulted them by not liking who they like.  Remember, be happy if people don't agree with you in sports betting....it's what makes a betting market...if everyone liked the Lions they'd be 3 point favorites!

In metaphysics our perception creates our reality, and that perception is going to be different for each individual....we are not here to try to convince someone how I have the only correct (winning) procedure and perception.  There's many ways to make a million dollars, right?  Trying to convince someone that my perception is truth is the biggest waste of time that I can think of....and sometimes a gambling thread becomes that.  It'd be like me telling you that selling cars is the only way to get rich.  All of this analysis and I will still be wrong a good percentage of the time,...but hopefully not wrong more than 40-46% of the time.

We do this to maybe help someone make the most informed decision they can make and it helps my own handicapping to have it all written down to refer to it throughout the week....plus helping someone else is just a good way to go about life.  We don't do this to show someone how much smarter or how much better our way of figuring out who will cover is, but because I just resonate with this type of operating in the sports betting realm. 

Good fortune in who you take this week.

Here is an article on 1 versus 3 seeds.....all you gotta do is google....

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2024/01/24/lions-49ers-nfc-championship-game-matchup-one-vs-three-seed-history/