playoffs??!!....round 3 angles

13-5 for the playoffs.

angle 1)  Home conference favorites with the superior last-8-games-played record playing a team that is playing their third playoff game have gone 4-9 ATS, 6-7 straight up....average line/total -5.1/45.5, average score.....21.6-21.9............49ers have gone 6-2 and the Lions have gone 5-3, Ravens 7-1 and Chiefs 4-4........VERSUS 49ers, Ravens

tS(W, N=8) > oS(W, N=8) and playoffs = 1 and HF and op:playoffs = 1 and opp:playoffs = 1

angle 2)  An away conference playoff dog playing their third straight playoff game.....

  a)  AFC 5-10 ATS

  b)  NFC 6-4  ATS

Keep in mind that in the past those number two seeds would only have played one playoff game before going on the road for a conference championship game  before the 7th team was added to the playoffs in each conference a couple of years ago.......

angle 3)  An away conference playoff dog that is playing their third playoff game off a home win........0-2 ATS, 0-2 straight up, losing by the scores of 24-38, and 7-31......VERSUS Lions

angle 4)  An away conference playoff dog playing their third playoff game off an away win......11-12 ATS (+0.39), 7-16 straight up (-5.43)....if that away dog of an away win is off a close win of less than six points they've gone 7-5 ATS (2.92), 4-8 straight up (-3.83).....ON Chiefs

I think the Chiefs are the safest bet on the board. I always appreciate your analysis. Thank you. 

An average yards per pass differential has proven to be predictive of success in the playoffs in the NFL.

Here are each teams' offensive and defensive yards per pass averages

                 Offense      Defense

Ravens       7.3               5.2 

Chiefs        6.6               5.4

Lions         7.4              7.3

49ers        8.7              5.9

A away conference playoff dog that has the net yards per pass attempt disadvantage, playing their third playoff game.....5-10 ATS, (-2.43), 2-13 straight up (-8.43), 9-5-1 o/u (+1.57).....average line/total +6/46.4, average score 19.8-28.2

playoffs = 1 and AD and p:playoffs = 1 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)<0 and C and pp:playoffs=1 

angle 6)  A conference playoff dog playing in their third playoff game, having won less than six out of their last 8 regular season games......6-1 ATS (+9.43), 5-2 straight up (+3.71), 1-6 o/u (-5.71).......ON Chiefs, Lions

Average line/total +5.7/44.5, average score 21.6-17.9

C and playoffs = 1 and AD and p:playoffs = 1 and pp:playoffs=1 and tS(W, N=8)<6

Play:

Lions +6'

angle 7) 

Away playoff conference dogs,  playing their third playoff game in a row whose present opponent averages greater than 120 yards per game on the ground......6-3 ATS (+4.33), 5-4 straight up (-0.41).....ON Chiefs, Lions.

AD and playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=1 and oA(RY)>120

Appreciate last week indigo… I just parlayed your picks in nfl… hit 2 of 4 as I had the 43.5 …been doing ok at college hoops lately … hard to figure the motivation of 19 year olds that play 3-4 times every 2 weeks… roller coaster ish.   As I said before… I am concerned on frisco playing well this week….  I would think they would….  Although little shanahan is roller coaster ish too…. I lived in colorado when his dad was coaching and winning a few Super Bowls …. And Kyle was a high school qb.   Now that is a connections when 15 years later this kid is coaching in a super bowl.     It’s good…. To be the king…..    look fwd to your analysis…. Appreciate your efforts.   

Ok, nice painting the picture like that....I'm in Vegas, living the life, though might get a bit respectable and go back to my life as a practitioner soon.  Hitting 50% on parlays?.....most anyone would take that.

I'll friend request you.  when you come to Vegas we'll get together and swap stories.

Early action is big-time on the Lions, which is a concern.....those teams with over 60% of the public on them are 0-4 in the playoffs, with losses on the Browns, Steelers in the first round and losses on the Bills and Texans round 2.

I am telling you all, it is worth knowing this!!....your handicapping will improve if you at least avoid betting what the vast majority of people are betting.

I've told this story numerous times before....Betfair, a bookmaker with a presence in Europe and Australia did a study of their betting population.....most of you would know that sports bookmakers profile their bettors, mostly to try to limit them if they are proven winners.  At that time betfair had a betting population of 80,000 bettors.

Three thousand of them were winners....for you that are bad at math that means that 3.75% of their bettors won.  It shouldn't be too tough of an extrapolation then that one should think to themselves, "if most bettors lose, maybe I should avoid what most bettors are doing, eh?"

Some of the things losing bettors do.....

1)  "I'll get together with my best buddies and we'll discuss the games and come to a consensus and when we all agree, we'll be betting that team in that game."  (Are your best buddies making money at sports betting?)

2)  "I'll have a few brewskis and take at look at the games an hour before the game and make my picks."

3)  "I have a strong feeling about this game, so I'm banging it hard."

4)  "The experts at cbssports, espn, the guys at the pool hall, gym, sports bar, etc., all like the Packers so I am on them!"

5)  "My rent is coming due, but I just know the Colts are gonna cover and when they due I'll have two months' rent that I won't have to worry about."

6)  "My dog when he drinks out of the bowl on the left means the road team will cover and he's hitting 63% so far this year....we'll ride the hot hand."

7)  "My sister has a best friend that is sleeping with the quarterback and I get the inside info on this team I'm betting."

Those that are systematic about their handicapping have a chance to be a winner....if after a few months of betting you are in the black then your methodology is sound and if you are losing it isn't.  One method is making a line and playing overlays when your line is off from the Vegas line.  I don't resonate with this because Vegas has math geniuses PhDs and very expensive computers that make their lines, and their casinos are multimillion dollar buildings, which bettors and punters have paid for.  That doesn't mean Vegas can't be beaten this way,....perhaps you have some kind of secret sauce that multimillion dollar computers haven't figured out yet.

Obviously I use past history as my methodology using a database that goes back 40 years for the regular season and 20 years for the playoffs,...fortunately not many people resonate with this type of analysis....it keeps the market in an advantageous state for me.  I am fine when people think this type of methodology is garbage.  I WANT THAT.

angle 8) 

Playoff away dogs with the lesser last 8 game record relative to their present opponent, who won their previous (playoff) game as an away dog, playing in the second or third round..... 14-6 ATS (+5.42), 11-9 straight up (-0.41), 8-12 o/u......ON Chiefs

AD and p:playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and C and day = Sunday and p:ADW and tS(W, N=8)

Betting the chiefs is donating your money. But do you 

Ja?, do you give money to the poor?

Hey,

Great post #11. "Vegas has math geniuses PhDs and very expensive computers that make their lines"

Such a true statement. If you are ever going to beat sports betting, you have to understand this and be humbled by the fact that Vegas knows infinitely more than any bettor does.

What is interesting is how inaccurate Vegas is with the number they put out, especially at football. With all that genius mathematical expertise and computer power, the odds makers are less than 50% of the time within 4-7 points of the of the line they project to be the final score of any game of football. This is a testament to the Variance of an average football game. How does the typical bettor overcome that kind of variance when the folks with the math pros and supercomputers can't? How do you figure the randomness of variance?

Looking back at the playoffs this year, 5 of the games were off the spot by 14 points or more. 1 was off by 7+. Only 4 games of the 10 were within 7 of the Vegas number. That's a snapshot of how inaccurate Vegas is in projecting the outcome of pro football.

My question to you, Is there a way to compute how an average of how much Vegas misses their projected number during an entire season?

Always appreciate your read and work. Wishing you continued success.

RT2

Great input. GL 

@Indigo999

 I heard that bets with vast public on it lose more than win. I'm very curious if the bet consensus we see online is real and can we trust it ?

They aren't using super computers and math PhD to come up with a spread. Elementary math can do it. 

If they were trying to handicap the games to beat the spread, they'd use super computers and math geniuses.

The spread is for betting purposes, not an indication of the score. It's also not a number generated for 50/50 action either. They handicap the public and put a simple number out. Either they take a stance or they don't. 

It's true but you can't trust those numbers. No casino would ever be stupid enough to put their take out in public. 

I use the betting contest numbers here at covers, the "King of Covers" contest.  It is a free contest....unless you are of the belief that covers is a shill for the sports bookmaking industry and they are falifying data those numbers are reliable.....for my purpose, which is to fade the public they have been.  Why would covers falsify data from a free contest?...it is quite a stretch to believe they would do that.

Would I believe the numbers from someone like VSIN that uses the numbers that draftkings gives them?....no, I wouldn't believe anything that a sportsbook is giving to the public, though if one thinks about it...those games where there is 80% on one side, why wouldn't they want action on the 20% side to lessen their exposure if someone is fading the public as a strategy?

That is a whole other concept that some would debate and has been been debated endlessly before.

The linemaker that sportsbooks now employ do use massey's power ratings as a guide and may shade those according to their linemaking consensus team and what they expect the public to bet on.

Regardless, the suits at casinos have done extensive data analysis on whether  a sportsbook is a worthwhile endeavor and have computed cost analysis on money made per square foot of all of their casino games, including poker and sports betting....whether it is a good investment of floor space to have a sportsbook in their casino.....obviously from what casinos typically put priority on, slot machines are the most lucrative of all the possible things to have in a casino and most, but not all casinos give minimal priority to a sportsbook.

I mentioned yard per pass differential stats here previously.

The lesser team on an average yards per pass differential basis as away playoff conference dogs....

First round......20-27 ATS

Second round....28-34 ATS

Third round......5-10 ATS 

Away playoff conference dogs playing a team that rushes for >120 yards/game by round, applicable to the Ravens and the 49ers.

First round......24-13 ATS

Second round...25-25 ATS

Third round.....6-3 ATS

Away conference playoff dogs with the lesser last 8 game record by round.....

First round......19-17 ATS

Second round...28-27 ATS

Third round......9-4 ATS

With three different types of indicators, for the third round....two favor the away dogs, and one indicator  is solidly against them.

I have heard that bet labs has a historical database that includes betting consensus figures....it is a paid-for site....I am not shilling for them, I don't use them....I use killersports and gimmethedog, which are free which I am mostly satisfied with, though they have their periodic moments when their database doesn't function properly. 

Neither killersports nor gimmethedog have  betting consensus figures incorporated into their data....it'd be a nice feature for them to have. 

An example of a query that would be interesting would be "how does a Monday night football away dog do against the spread when they have less than 40% of the public on them?"

Teams with an excellent average yards per pass differential (offensive minus defensive stats) of over 1.5 yards per pass.....how have they done?

Home favorites in conference playoff games with a positive yards per pass average differential of >1.5 playing a team playing their third playoff game have gone 10-3 ats, covering by over 4 points a game, and they've gone 13-0 straight up, winning by over 10 points per game.

Both the Ravens and the 49ers qualify this season.

playoffs = 1 and HF and C and op:playoffs=1 and opp:playoffs=1 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>1.5

On the other hand........

Ravens scoring margin this season at home was 15 points a game.....this is a negative indicator that has seen regression in the past, as we saw this playoffs with the Cowboys getting annihilated at home after a perfect home record during the regular season.

Those  conference playoff home favorites playing a team that is playing their third playoff game have gone 3-7 ATS (-2.90), 5-5 straight up (+3.50).....VERSUS Ravens

playoffs=1 and HF and tA(margin@H)>12 and op:playoffs=1 and opp:playoffs=1

Chiefs average scoring differential this season on the road was around +2/game....if we subtract a team's home margin versus their opponent's away margin in the case of the Ravens/Chiefs that difference is 13 points a game (15-2).

When that difference between the home team's home performance minus the away teams' away performance has been over 10 points/game how has the home favorite done?

They've gone 1-3 ATS, 2-2 straight up and 0-4 o/u

playoffs=1 and HF and tA(margin@H)-oA(margin@A)>10 and op:playoffs=1 and opp:playoffs=1 and C

Betting percentages (Monday)

Lions 66%

Chiefs 53%

Lions OVER 63%

Chiefs OVER 76%

Normal for the public to be on OVER, but this is an incredibly high percentage of OVER backers.  

Nick Saban has said that it used to be that defense stops offense, but  he said that nowadays that is no longer the case.

Most indicators I have are to play both games UNDER....last week I got burned by playing a total early in the week (Texans/Ravens) that moved a couple of points against me that woulda/coulda/shoulda won if I had waited......trying to be a good boy this week and I will wait to see if I might see the totals rise as bettors weigh in with their wallets.