Just some information to potentially help bettors today; best at your own risk
I'm not a huge Coleman fan, but his props are a little depressed and potentially some buy low spots here
1) Coleman Anytime TD @ 17% -- he played 6 of 8 snaps inside the 20 -- tied for the team lead. Hes a bigger WR so more likely to go his way than say a Shakir or Palmer inside the red zone. Historically he's scored in 25% of his game and this match predicts to be high scoring. Value seems there
2) Yards Escalator 014.5 Coleman Yards, o29.5 Yards, etc --- boundry receivers can catch big ones -- escalator has value here. He historically clears the 14.5 avrg very frequently and he was on the field for 50% of the snaps last week. His true expected targets is 4ish based on routes run, etc. One catch could easily clear this
3) Kincaid o3.5 Receptions -- buffalo ran the ball 55% last year -- week one 61% were pass plays with Joe Brady. Kincaid usually clears this number and avrging 11/12 yards a pass this is saying he yards number should be around 40... it sits @ 54ish. Big value here in a favorable game script
4) Knox o12.5 yards -- buffalo is running lots of 3 TE sets and knox averaged 24ish yards a game last year. This seems low based on week 1 slump and ripe for a buy low spot considering buffalo is passing more than running now, he normally clears this number, and brady wants to run more TE sets anyways
5) Knox Anytime TD @ 12.5% -- he is a huge friend of allen and he loves to look at him in the endzone -- passing scrip/te friendly offense. He averages 23.53% TD share a game last year. This number is half of his historical share, in a game that looks like its going to be high scoring, with a coach that wants to run heavy TE sets. He saw snaps in 5 or 8 red zone looks last week
6) Allen o250.5 Passing Yards. This number seems low given the game dynamics and the fact that Det two safeties are out. Allens numbers have been depressed a bit because of McD run first/defense oriented script where they ran the ball 55% of the time. Week 1 brady aired it out deep with 61% passing plays. Detriot is week in the seconday today -- this number seems low
These are some great props to target for buffalo -- PASS ON THE 54.5 TOTAL IMO -- and im targeting some of these instead
I don't know a lot about Detriot but I will say our lbs/safeties aren't the best and probably the biggest weakness for Buffalo
I would be very tempted to play LaPorta in Fantasy and target his YARDS over and Anytime TD props on that side
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