PLAY: San Diego @ Jacksonville (and short write up)

San Diego @ Jacksonville :

In all actuality this is one of those few games that season stats, and even last 3 game stats are near meaningless due to all the unknown variables in this game.  Normally, a game with a multitude of unknown variables is a quick ‘NO THANK YOU’ play, or the ol’ ‘No Play Is The Most Profitable Play’ montra.  This game is an exception as we look at the tell-tell key points.

 

STATE OF SD CHARGERS: First off, Norv Turner is probably fired at the conclusion of this season unless he gets to a Super Bowl—yeah, that is just not going to happen.  Norv Turner/Phillip Rivers have incredible histories in the last 25% of seasons past, regardless of the scenario—though the injuries they are dealing with have never looked this bad in season’s past.  Phillip Rivers is used to being considered one of the best in the NFL and he just isn’t putting up the numbers he has come to accept as just the ‘norm’.  Antonio Gates is getting an earful of “you are old, fat, and past your use-by date”. 

Phillip Rivers has put up numbers as good as (in my opinion) any QB in the NFL would given his situation (and trust me, I am NO PR FAN!... I don’t like the guy personally)—he has a desimated O-line, a bottom half of the league running game.  The Chargers face the 7^th most third downs on offense in the NFL—this is from a team that has more offensive snaps that anyone but N.Orleans ; i.e. long drawn out drives, and yet they have only outscored about half the NFL.  Why is this?  Well SD is 6^th in % of pass plays…Defenses KNOW he is going to have to pass, and moreso on third downs…makes defending much easier, and QB’ing much harder.

STATE OF JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:

This locker room is probably void of one single player who has been focused completely on football this week.  Gabbert has gotten new life; when most NFL teams would have benched him—as Del Rio was planning to do.  How do the players feel about Gabbert’s new lease on life (with a 4^th ranked defense that is 7^th in the NFL in allowed average pts per play)?  Tucker (interim HC) was promised he will get a shot at the permanent position at season’s end.  Tucker fired WR’s coach and shifted around coaching assignments this week (OC now overseeing Gabbert ect).  Were the players happy to see Del Rio go, are they divided, or are they disgruntled?  Hard to get answers to those questions, but we do know there are a few players that have new chances at proving themselves, and back ups who are not happy about that.  

What does this potential Jekyl-Hyde match up, and what can we expect?  Well Jag’s D may try to dominate as they smell blood in the water (given SD’s shoestring O-line and river’s recent challenges).  Jag’s D may be less than on their game due to the distractions.  Tucker knows that winning will be the best interview weapon he could have, and will do anything he has to in trying to attain that weapon.  Norv Turner wants/needs to win every bit as bad as Turner does; his survival is predicated on it.  Rivers botched a guaranteed win vs KC (fumbled a snap in winning FG territory), played badly this season, is embarrassed, and would LOVE to redeem himself on national TV tonight.  Gates will want to show he is still a talent—injured and fat or not.  The O-line of SD is probably going to be as good as they can be (not great) tonight, and will most likely give PRs 5 seconds to check down more than a few times tonight…. Question is,… can Rivers take advantage of this?  If so… he will put up some points tonight…If not, he will get back to his pick 6 ways (vs GB)… Gabbert may actually be willing to take a few hits tonight as opposed to opting for his skirt and pantyhose that he has gone to so many times this season… he knows he is a young QB that will not be a starter if he does not start impressing this new regime… if he is successful tonight, then it can look like it was Johnny Cox’s fault that he played so badly this season.  Both Tucker and Turner will be much more likely to ‘go for it on 4^th downs’ tonight trying to extend their enimic offense’s drives and scoring possibility. 

 

I am a believer in the linesmaker’s not allowing any single streak riding capper’s to cash on them too long in one endeavor (the UNDER has hit these team’s combined last 6 games for 9 of the last 12)… and I can see a much higher focus on scoring.  As far as the side.. a SD, OR Jax dominated performance is not out of the question…play the side if you also like flipping coins for gambling action…NOT ME….

 

PLAY: San Diego / Jacksonville OVER 19.5 First half

PLAY:  San Diego / Jacksonville  OVER 39.5

Don't know what your record is but you seem to be

 

All the best 2  U  

I disagree with a lot of your logic, but i like your over . 

lazy gambler here (took me 1-2 minutes to look this up LOL) but in the last four matchups, all four games went over.

Nice play KS.  

Good luck KS!

 God knows there is NOT ONE SINGLE THING I CAN WRITE / POST on this site that SOMEONE does not agree with...lol.... the whole 'GUARANTEED' thing is ludicrousnes though, human element makes it so that NOTHING is guaranteed (regardless of this outcome)  you will eventually lose credibility if you continue to use that word...jus sayin...BoL 

Agreed.
I wonder if you could actually show the state of the Chargers line. So much has been erroneously blamed on Rivers, his line is in shamble, this is where the blame lies.
Hard to imagine them scoring, granted, they want to score but they want to every week.
Tough to play this game.
I am still torn but leaning to the Jags as the covers article suggests the world is on the Chargers and seems to be begging for more bolt action.

thanks riceboi 

OVER 39.5 

Nice write-up-

Well everyone seems to think all these new changes in the Jags organization is a negative. As a player would you want to continue to lose week after week year after year with this old regime. I believe its a positive management wants to change this stagnant team around. Different kind of motivation for this team but maybe they go all out and the new coach opens the offence  up somewhat. It certainly can't hurt and the fans are sure tired of how this offence was run up to this point. I'll take a chance on the over also.(plus the Jags defence is pretty banged up) (sp) sorry.

Sometimes I think Covers tries to steer you wrong........

Jags ML and spread for me, change of heart.

Fuck if i read all that shit i'd miss the whole 1st halve of the game...But im liking the over too and im gonna pound the chargers layn the pts.BOL

On the Over

lol.. don't read it then..it is optional you know lol..... I would be really careful playing the side... it could be close of go heavy either way   BOL

 TRUTH!!!! WHERE YA BEEN BRO?  GL