“PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS”…… 9/27/21 🏆

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3.5

Just a little note…. I said to myself if Green were to win and/or cover, Philly would as well. Dogs have been doing great in night games and the trend is capable of being alive tonight.

On paper Dallas is the better team but only at -3.5… This is Dak’s first game back since the injury….

I would expect Vegas to protect themselves a bit and have Dallas maybe one point higher since many will bet Dallas because of that angle.

Justin Herbert went 31-41 against Dallas… I expect Jalen Hurts to be able to handle this Dallas secondary as well.

With the chiefs opening -5.5 at Philly next week… An Eagles win/cover tonight would make everyone jump on them against the chiefs next week. It’s always safe to predict ahead and try to tell what situations are best for the next game or so. 

Everyone will clearly bet Eagles at +5.5 since chiefs are 1-10 ATS their last 11 regular season games.

I have no qualms with your pick for this game. A sound argument can be made for either side.

Comparing Hurts to Herbert is not a sound argument.

GL with your play

First HOME game for Dak since the ankle but I love the incorporation of next week’s angle with the Chiefs in your detailed write-up. Good luck buddy. 

I should have been more thorough… Eagles receiving core can definitely create space against this Cowboys suspect secondary.

Chargers and Eagles receiving core are not to far from each other …. Eagles will respect the Cowboys front 7 and will have to throw. If Jalen Hurts has a great game then it’s game over for Dallas. 

Hurts is capable of lighting up a weak secondary…. Atlanta is a prime example 

Good luck Todd. Liking Eagles as well +3 and sprinkle ML 

@ToddC

 Love your enthusiasm for your squad.  I have to say I disagree with your angles though.  The reason Dallas has given up so many passing yards is rather obvious.  Did you notice who they played?  Maybe the two most prolific offensive teams.  And they split those two brutal games on the road vs Tampa and the Chargers.  Now coming home to face a hated rival.  No way could I back the Eagles here.  Best of luck (not really, my $$$ is on the other side)  And I am not a Cowboys fan- except for tonight. 

Good one 

@EastsideBangers

 My reaction was the same as yours

Liked eagles BUT I found a Wierd 100% losing angle on them all season long here. So idk im leaning favorite as of now -3.5. Also lean under but we gotta look cap and crack (them bookies haha). It's early.

Everyone will clearly bet Eagles at +5.5 since chiefs are 1-10 ATS their last 11 regular season games.

Win or lose I will be on KC next week….not worried about ATS record or the Eagles. Eagles beat Atlanta.
Dallas split against 2 top teams. Dallas should roll tonight. Good luck.

@EastsideBangers

 Your going off the previous seasons where the Eagles had nothing but old guys with no speed and young guys with no hands.

Eagles have speedy and quick guys in that area now…. 

Gl TC 

like it 

@toddc @eastsidebangers

"Chargers and Eagles receiving core are not to far from each other …. Eagles will respect the Cowboys front 7 and will have to throw. If Jalen Hurts has a great game then it’s game over for Dallas. Hurts is capable of lighting up a weak secondary…. Atlanta is a prime example "

Wait....are you saying that if Philly makes Dallas throw the ball, then its game over? Really? DAK and Dallas top 5 offense/WR core can't keep up with HURTS? If this were to be a shootout, which it wont, Dallas can and will keep up. 

Dallas D is vastly improved compared to the teams of old - forget the injuries we have on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, we have a few liabilities back there, but Trevon Diggs has been truly as SHUT DOWN as one can be. If he can take care of Devonta Smith, who should STILL have a nice night tonight, then I am not worried about JJ A-W and Quez Watkins winning the game for Phila. Parsons and Gregory off the edge is something I am also excited to watch given PHILA O-Line issues. 

I don't have an angle on the total - all prime time games have gone OVER the total so far this year. More concerned about PHILA ability to RUN the ball on Dallas and control the clock. That is the only way this game is close. Comparing what the Eagles offense did to ATLANTA horrid D on opening day is completely irrelevant. This is not the same Dallas defense of old. Still a bottom feeder, no doubt, but they put up a nice fight against Brady and Herbert. HURTS is not Brady nor Herbert. And PHILA WR core is not in the same ballpark as what Brady and Herbert have at their disposal. 

I really can't see Philly winning this game. 

Hey Todd,

Was leaning Philly and then I looked at last season's games.  Philly beat the Cowboys handily mid-season last year allowing only 3 FGs (Ben DiNucci), but went to Dallas next to last game of the season, had a great 1st Qtr scoring 2 TDs.  From then on it was a completely different game.  Best they could do 2nd Qtr was a 55 yd FG and punts.  The entire 2nd Half they could do nothing but 3 punts, a turnover on downs, and give away 3 possessions by fumble and 2 INTs.  An amazing reversal of fortune.

Jalen did all he could stat wise (342 passing 69 rushing) but Andy D threw for 377 / 3 TDs and Zeke rushed for 105.  It was the proverbial "tale of two halfs", so I wonder if Dallas' D came up with something, or was it just the way the ball bounced?  Cowboys D was overall horrendous last season, except for that little detour into the twilight zone.

If you want to look ahead to look back, well the Cowboys are opening next Sunday at -4.5 hosting the 3-0 Carolina Panthers who have displayed a pretty good D so far (14-7-9 pts allowed to the NYJ, Saints, Texans).  Lowest pts. allowed in the NFC after 3 games and in the middle of the pack in pts. scored.  So if the Cowboys are opening at -4.5 next week (like Eagles +5.5 in comparison), does that say Dallas has a pretty good MNF result?  The early lines are usually not far off the actual opening lines from tomorrow midday.  All the up-to-date data and algorithms have churned out next week's opening lines, except for tonight's result, so I have to wonder what kind of a picture is being painted.  Trying to reverse engineer a result has more holes than a slice of swiss cheese lol.

Philly lost @ the Falcons in Week 2 last season, so they corrected that matter in the first week this season with a major thumping in Atlanta.  Now they recall the thumping they took at the end of last season in Dallas, but they won't be facing Dalton, the former gunslinger; new gunslinger back in town.

You can say right now that Eagles backers will jump on that +5.5 before tonight's game, but if Dallas repeats last year's home result (with Dak instead of Andy), and knowing that the Chiefs were pretty much embarrassed at Arrowhead yesterday...not sure Eagles bettors will be so quick to jump on the +5.5, or a quick 6.  Throw in the recency bias of SU wins by visiting GB +4, NO +3, CINCY +3, ATL +2.5, and MIA ATS +4, and it could seem like a shootout in Big D with Philly getting it done.  Justin Herbert threw for 338 in LA last week but Dallas only bent (17 pts allowed) instead of breaking.  Dak back in friendly surroundings; will the emotional win in LA leave the Cowboys flat tonight, or will it be the fuel that helps them to ride roughshod over their hated rivals.

Dallas' ML has been slightly downtrending, yet sites have percentages in the 80s.  ML would usually be creeping up with percentages in the 80s.  The spread is still mostly -3.5 even though Dallas percentages are around 65-70%.  Opened at -4 and even though it's down to 3.5/even 3, Dallas bettors seem to prefer the safer (in their minds) ML to avoid what happened yesterday with Miami's +4 cover.  No way can Dallas backers see a ML SU loss.  The books seem to like their ML and spread numbers right now.  Can Philly fans take home bags of cash by hitting the SU daily double of the ML and the spread?  Nahhhhh...Philly will never get an early visit from Santa...especially since they were throwing snowballs at him in Philly last Christmas!  Might get the cover, but not the SU win.

Best wishes, and BOLTA  

I am going off of your comment from today that the Eagles and Chargers receiving corps are comparable.

DeVanta Smith, a rookie and two 2nd years receivers in Jalen Raegar and Quez Watkins are nowhere close to being in the same category right now as Keenan Allen who is probably headed to the hall of fame and Mike Williams. To argue otherwise is laughable.

@eastsidebangers RIGHT ON brother. 

@ToddC

 On the same side.  Let’s ride 

LMAO...hello Uncle B !!!

Yep agree...I believe I said next week's line is based on all the data crunched pre tonight's game (which would change the future line for any impactful injuries or an azzwhooping of amazing proportions).  How times have changed from back in the day when the books set a line and challenged us to be sharper than them if we could find an edge.  Now, they not only have all the tools but they like to toy with the bettor occasionally with misdirection or smoke and mirrors.  They really don't like us...lol.

Best wishes and good fortune, UncleBenelli  

Chargers and Eagles receivers are not alike. Chargers have Mike Williams and Allen which are really really good WR. Eagles core are young and are coming along but not as good as the WR from chargers. 

Tough match to hc. We are on Dallas due to Hurts clavicle, but could see it going either way.