NY/SF line and sharps

capps if youve ever listened to any guys that run the sportsbooks in the casino the line is set to exactly try and get action both ways..they do not want heavy action one way as that is how they get pounded..your info is wrong!!

they adjust the lines accordingly when action is coming one way they change the line to draw it on the other side

If I was an expert...I wouldn't be answering questions on these forums...:) I can tell you I will play Giants. I think they are coaxing money onto SF. I think knee jerk is always small home fav if you see money going in that direction. Man....I wish it were that easy though.....

This is the silliest thing i've ever heard

Why would the sharps not just buy the points to where they want it to begin with? Instead of investing all this $ just to make the line move to buy it back the other way at a better line.

If what they want is Giants +3.5 or +3 just buy the points in the first place and place your bet duh

This is the silliest thing i've ever heard

Why would the sharps not just buy the points to where they want it to begin with? Instead of investing all this $ just to make the line move to buy it back the other way at a better line.

If what they want is Giants +3.5 or +3 just buy the points in the first place and place your bet duh

I never look at line moves to decide a game. I  think Vegas manipulates lines to  balance the action / or  stimulate action.

to me the only thing line  moves say is that there is more  interest on one  side. but nobody really knows how the game will play out.

Its all about  positioning the books and  creating the perfect situation for the books,,, which is balanced action.

No doubt, San Fran money is hot right now,,,

I like 49ers

The side Vegas will want to win is the side opposite that most of the $ is on AFTER all of the bets have come in. So for example if 67% of bets are on Giants of course they will want and NEED 49's to win or they will lose a ton of $.

The manipulation happens I believe AFTER the kickoff and all bets have already been placed. That is why you see the refs trying to help a certain team out with very obvious bad calls repeatedly. Not too mention mysterious kickoff fumbles and dropped passes, etc..

There have been many examples of this just this year alone and I will only give you one good example:

Houston/Colts the whole world was on Houston to either cover the 6 or win and look what happened- Refs helped Colts drive all the way down the field in the last minutes to score a td to not only cover but win the game outright. This burns all the bets on Houston including ML, parlays, and teasers. Thus Vegas and the books don't take a huge loss as they should have.

The next day everyone on the covers forum is crying fix that had their Houston bets burned down but even though those who had colts or no play agreed.

This is why bettors get nervous when the public is on one side heavy the same side they made a play on.

Thats how vegas makes money.

bills need help guess you dont bet much...by buying it back and pounding the bet they not only get the bet they want without paying the hook but they also have a chance to middle

Vegas does not manipulate NFL games.

Vegas is on record as saying they want the games to be fairly officiated and played, so they don't get screwed with their lines.

There hasn't been one game in the history of the NFL that's been documented to have been won/lost due to Vegas.  As far as I know.

Stop w/the paranoia and delusional thoughts

look stop the debate

yeah i bet plenty ya prospect i know what a middle is but to try to middle between a 2 point difference is silly. those are terrible odds..

The reason smart bettors pound the line when it first comes out is because they know it will move and want to grab it at the best line/price. That's how sharp bettors make money buy getting the best line. That's why the lines usually get pounded when they first come out and right before kickoff. That is when you usually see the most line mvt.

for example you bet sf -1.5 and hope to drive the line up to 2.5-3 than pound the gmen..to buy a hook from 2.5-3 is usually -135 to buy a full point is like -170 so if the line goes to 2.5 and they buy the hook they now have a chance to middle but if the gmen win they make large if they lose they still cash their sf bet and they can catch a middle.
Its better than buying a full point hook..cheaper for them and increases the odds..plus the public is usually pretty square and if they see the line move in one direction they  usually bet that way making the line change or the juice change

it just happened line in the gb game went from 7.5 all the way to 9 than dropped to 7.5 minutes before kickoff

Forts of all do you realize how much $ it takes to make a line move 2.5 pts? A shit ton ok. 2-2.5 points is a lot.

Do you realize that the only way for a middle in this scenario you described is if San Fran won by exactly 2 pts. That is the only way. Do you know the odds of a team winning by 2pts? Pretty damn low.

So to invest that much $ on SF just to get the line where you want the other way just to pound the Giants for a hope of a middle of less than 1% chance makes no sense at all.

There are many better ways to play for a middle like making a second half bet where you have a much broader ranger for a middle like 6-7 pts.

Playing for a 2 pt middle.

Go back to math class.

Niners defense will torment the Giants

Wrong. The line opened at Packers -9 but the $ started pouring in on the Giants after everyone saw them manhadle the Falcons the week before. People were eating up the Giants +9 as a gift all week long. That eventually moved the line down to -7.5 by gametime.

Dude Lions is 100% correct.  They are not putting even money on both sides just to play for a middle.  They buy some early to push the line in the direction they want, then they come over the top with a much bigger bet.  So if they placed significant bets on sf -1 and then came over the top with giants +3, they would want the giants to cover.  But at the same time they could win both of their bets or push one and win one.  

BINGO.........the line is set to bring in action both ways so they can make a profit by collecting the juice.........thats why is best to find a line that you think is way off and see if the public pounds it one way which in return can give you a chance to middle your bet........thats how a sharp wagers a game.........either he wins both or loses the juice.........this is hard to do because oddsmakers are on cue 95 per cent of the time...........

[Quote: Originally Posted by WholeInOne]

BINGO.........the line is set to bring in action both ways so they can make a profit by collecting the juice.........thats why is best to find a line that you think is way off and see if the public pounds it one way which in return can give you a chance to middle your bet........thats how a sharp wagers a game.........either he wins both or loses the juice.........this is hard to do because oddsmakers are on cue 95 per cent of the time...........

Exactly. That is why they buy the line as soon as it opens IF they really like the line. IF they really like the line the other way before kickoff then they will buy that too. But it all depends on IF the public moves the line to the key number to warrant another sharp play. The public usually makes their plays on game day not 6 days prior when the line opens.

The sharps hit it early the public hit it late. Early line movt is caused by sharps not so much late line mvt that is more the public.

So the bottom line is the Sharps really liked SF in this matchup with a very short line and wanted to grab it at -1 before it went up because they only saw it going up.

hey bills great points u made. i think the line is set just right. ya the giants beat the packers in lambeau with ease but niners got by the best offense in the game. owned from the start also but let them back in the game. i live in vegas and ive heard opinions on both sides. i mean the niners have also covered every game at home this year with one push. giants lose a day of practice for travel, but i honestly still like the gmen here. something about them just playing as a unit has been very impressive. i think the niners have been underrated most the season especially alex smith and they deserve to be in this game, they also have some good years ahead of them. but the gmen have been here b4 and the way that d is playing and eli is leading that team i really like em here. go with your gut bills gmen plus 3 to be safe but might as well play the moneyline at plus 120

gl fellas

Team after beating  the superbowl champ are 1-11 ats when not hte superbowl,traveling 3 time zones for a b2b road gm,one less day to prepare.Also This is just my opinion the Giants have been flying high for over a month if there was ever a time it catches up with them it would be this spot!

SF is the play

I didnt see it open at 1, i saw -2 then up to -3 now down to 2.5.  I guess it depends where you are looking.  I really think this line settles at 3, vegas is going to get a lot of action on this came especially since its the late game. 

Although they try to get 50-50 on each side it doesnt happend that  often.There will be alot of times throughout the year where the books will be on a certain side because of so much action that is one sided.

As far as Casinos,sportsbook is last on their list of revenue with less than 3%.They care about slots,slots,slots and more slots which is guaranteed money!!