NY/SF line and sharps

Question

ok does anyone else see something strange with this line.

SF opened at -1 has been bet by sharps to -2.5

But we have:

-The NY Giants have all the momentum,

-Giants just knocked off the #1 seed in GB with authority

-They held the Falcons to ZERO offensive points the week before.

-Eli has been playing very consistent and the offense is at full strength

-Their defense has been playing lights out and is at full strength

-They are a great road team and have proven that this year(not just the win in GB)

Now for the 49's:

-They barely squeaked by the saints with a last second score even though they had a +5 turnover margin AND the Saints lost their #1 RB Pier Thomas.

Aside from having the better Defense and running game, homefield advantage and arguably better coaching.

Doesn't it not makes sense that they are the favorite AND the line has been moving towards -3 with the sharp money coming in on SF???

All the angles point toward the Giants from an analysis standpoint so why is SF favored by almost a fg?

This has to tell you something. It just doesn't make sense and I have been trying to give myself reasons to take SF but all the logic point toward the Giants as the must play but something is telling me SF takes this.

So how do you explain the line/movement as an unbiased handicapper?

All input welcomed that is not just homer fueled...

-

billsneedhelp · Answer

ok does anyone else see something strange with this line.

SF opened at -1 has been bet by sharps to -2.5

But we have:

-The NY Giants have all the momentum,

-Giants just knocked off the #1 seed in GB with authority

-They held the Falcons to ZERO offensive points the week before.

-Eli has been playing very consistent and the offense is at full strength

-Their defense has been playing lights out and is at full strength

-They are a great road team and have proven that this year(not just the win in GB)

Now for the 49's:

-They barely squeaked by the saints with a last second score even though they had a +5 turnover margin AND the Saints lost their #1 RB Pier Thomas.

Aside from having the better Defense and running game, homefield advantage and arguably better coaching.

Doesn't it not makes sense that they are the favorite AND the line has been moving towards -3 with the sharp money coming in on SF???

All the angles point toward the Giants from an analysis standpoint so why is SF favored by almost a fg?

This has to tell you something. It just doesn't make sense and I have been trying to give myself reasons to take SF but all the logic point toward the Giants as the must play but something is telling me SF takes this.

So how do you explain the line/movement as an unbiased handicapper?

All input welcomed that is not just homer fueled...

-

NittanyNiner84 · Answer

going from east to west coast might play a part. giants go to greenbay back to new york and then to san fran. seems like a lot of traveling and niners with an extra days rest. That might be something.

Ice4Blood · Answer

the current line i&#x27;m showing on this game is SF (-2)... the opening line at the same book was SF (-3) EV... i never saw anything close to SF (-1)... line has been moving in one direction, slowly but surely... and it is not the direction you are saying it is moving...

billsneedhelp · Answer

I would add just 2 more things I forgot that would go in SF's favor.

1.They have the special teams advantage.

2. Alex looked very sharp last game and proved he can do it with his arm. Now I know granted that was against the Saints D, but still the passes were very accurate and he showed tremendous poise & confidence in the pocket. I was very impressed.

But still there WAY more things pointing towards the Giants here.

So all you great experienced cappers here on covers- what else am I missing and why take the 49's in this spot?

C'mon you super smart ones what are the reasons to take SF?

billsneedhelp · Answer

This article right here explains the line movt and sharp money pouring in on SF I have been talking about:https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=261767

archdriver · Answer

good observations and reflections. i am just starting to think this game through and my first leans is giants. they have balance everywhere. running/ passing/ receiving / defense . the only negative about the giants has been consistency througout the year. but lately it seems that they have been outplaying themselves on defense.

San Fran has played some weak opponents and their defensive numbers (against the run) is impressive. But I would not score SanFran rush defense that much better than Atlanta.

it all comes down to how well Gmen defense plays and how well SanFran offnse plays. i think giants offense will test the sanFran defense with a great passing ability and honest running ability.

PrimeTimeBoys · Answer

The only book that opened the 49ers at -3 is bookmaker..........most Vegas casinos opened 49ers at -1

billsneedhelp · Answer

here is the article as a link ;https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=261767

3lions · Answer

sharps will bet a line early to move it in the direction they want and they will then come back and pound it the other way when the number is in there favour

jamesxiong187 · Answer

san fran is good but saints suck on the road and thier D isn&#x27;t that good compare to gaints. I&#x27;ll proably have to take gaints.

onfire77 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by billsneedhelp] ok does anyone else see something strange with this line.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;SF opened at -1 has been bet by sharps to -2.5 &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;But we have:&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-The NY Giants have all the momentum, &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-Giants just knocked off the #1 seed in GB with authority&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-They held the Falcons to ZERO offensive points the week before.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-Eli has been playing very consistent and the offense is at full strength&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-Their defense has been playing lights out and is at full strength&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-They are a great road team and have proven that this year(not just the win in GB)&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Now for the 49&#x27;s:&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-They barely squeaked by the saints with a last second score even though they had a &#x2B;5 turnover margin AND the Saints lost their #1 RB Pier Thomas.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Aside from having the better Defense and running game, homefield advantage and arguably better coaching.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Doesn&#x27;t it not makes sense that they are the favorite AND the line has been moving towards -3 with the sharp money coming in on SF???&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;All the angles point toward the Giants from an analysis standpoint so why is SF favored by almost a fg?&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;This has to tell you something. It just doesn&#x27;t make sense and I have been trying to give myself reasons to take SF but all the logic point toward the Giants as the must play but something is telling me SF takes this.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;So how do you explain the line/movement as an unbiased handicapper?&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;All input welcomed that is not just homer fueled...&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]Are these the same sharps that moved the saints from -1 or whatever it opened to -3.5 or 4. &#xD;&#xA;This is done to throw everyone off and it means nothing.&#xD;&#xA;Just a guy who doesn&#x27;t post much 2 cents.&#xD;&#xA;Clearly the giants are the play unless they lay an egg

billsneedhelp · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by onfire77]  Are these the same sharps that moved the saints from -1 or whatever it opened to -3.5 or 4. &#xD;&#xA;This is done to throw everyone off and it means nothing.&#xD;&#xA;Just a guy who doesn&#x27;t post much 2 cents.&#xD;&#xA;Clearly the giants are the play unless they lay an egg  [/Quote]wrong its not done to "throw everyone off and means nothing". The line is set by oddsmakers of what they think is even handicap based on the matchup. The point is to get 50/50 action that is even $ on each side. When $ pours in on one side that moves the line to get more $ on the other side to balance it out because it is too lopsided.Having said that in this case early $ has poured in on sf which has moved the line to -2.5 from -1. That does not necessarily mean they will cover but it does mean that alot of people with $ think they will.

Capps · Answer

Vegas linesmakers do not set lines so that they can get 50/50 and pocket the vig. Lines are set so that Vegas can in fact win money on a certain side. They are adjusted accordingly for this reason. Vegas most certainly always has a side they want to win. Not split money....

tjohnsont · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Capps] &#xD;&#xA;Vegas linesmakers do not set lines so that they can get 50/50 and pocket the vig. Lines are set so that Vegas can in fact win money on a certain side. They are adjusted accordingly for this reason. Vegas most certainly always has a side they want to win. Not split money....&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;   &#xD;&#xA;Mostly everyone believes everything they read.

Capps · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by tjohnsont]

Mostly everyone believes everything they read.

Thats just a falsity that people seem to think is the case in sportsgambling. And it isn't. A sportsbook doesn't want to win 1 million in a night. they want to win 10 million.

billsneedhelp · Answer

What you are forgetting is that books make money on juice so if they end up breaking even they still win guaranteed $ on the juice and thats what keeps them profitable long term.

So based on what you are saying "vegas" wants people to bite on SF by moving the line towards -3 so they think that is team all the $ is coming on on and therefore will win. And throw in a fake article about how "sharps" are pouring in $ on sf when the line opened.

Now there's a conspiracy theory

Brent Musburger · Answer

Yeah, sportsbooks ARE NOT a revenue generator for casinos.

There is a reason they are always in the back of the casino and sometimes hard to find. They want you to play slots, table games and eat food.

To think casinos would gamble to make money on a certain side is ridiculous. It's all about the juice.

There's a reason why betting exchanges are the most profitable Internet sports betting operations - guaranteed money with minimal risk.

Capps · Answer

Vegas sets lines to maximize the number of bets that they take in. Listen....they could care less if they have 1,000 bets on 1 side and 1,000 on another if they can set a line that will enable them to take 50,000 bets total. I am done....you are certainly a square....lol

Capps · Answer

I am sorry...let me be more clear...without sounding like a jerk.....books set lines so that they can draw in more public money(more bets) on any given number. They anticipate a likely outcome of the game, but tweak the line accordingly to where they think they can get more bets. This is usually from a percentage standpoint, a more favorable outcome to where "there" side will win. Doe sit happen that way...no, home dogs lose from time to time :) but more often then not...they beat the public. But most certainly, books have a side they want to win, and they set lines accordingly. Capish.

DOVJAK · Answer

DONT OVER THINK THIS GAME

Capps · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I agree! At the end of the day it comes down to experience. If its even everywhere else, you compare the guys with the ball every offensive play.

choiOi · Answer

NY Giants with all momentum ???????????&#xD;&#xA;Don&#x27;t want to be bias here but 9ers got momentum too.....don&#x27;t you think???????????

billsneedhelp · Answer

SO having said that who do you think they want to win sf or giants?

NY/SF line and sharps

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