Posted:
#1
So I have not done this for a few weeks due to health issues, for the most part. Now that I'm post-emergency surgery, I can't sleep and decided to bring it back. Now this WAS hitting at about a 65% clip for the first 7 weeks that I did this! Also, same thing I started doing near the end of last season and it was very successful. I just look for a few certain things to see what should be played accordingly. My write ups are going to be horrible because I'm sick and on pain meds, so bare with me:
NFL YTD: Was 26-14 through Week 7
Houston +3 over Indy --- 28% of public on Houston, 43% ML. Indianapolis has 72% of public on them but the line went from 3.5 and dropped to 3. Leads me to believe the sharp money is on Houston. Under was hit hard when line opened at 88% when the line opened and now only 35% of public is on the Under. So a lean toward the Under 48 but not a play for me. PLAY: Houston +3
Cleveland +14 at Cincinnati --- When line opened, a very large percent of the money coming in was on Cleveland at +14. It was around 88% up to 92% when line opened. This line has dropped at some places off of 14 down to 13.5 despite Cincy getting a huge percentage of the public action at 67%. Plus, 14 is a very key number to be moved off of. This also leads me to believe that sharp money is on Cleveland, although that is not real surprising since double digit dogs are popular with sharps. PLAY: Cleveland +14
Miami at Buffalo -- This line opened at 3 and despite 90% of the public on Miami, it has stayed at 3. Takes a lot to move a number off of 3 but 90% will usually do it unless good money has come in on the other side. The ML percentages are nearly equal, so it's not the ML keeping this at 3, although a lot of people will take the ML with a home dog rather than lay the 3 points. Only thing keeping this from being a play is that Miami was hammered when this line opened and it doesn't really match all three things that I look for. I personally like Miami in this game but system leans to Buffalo. I have to believe a lot of money somewhere is keeping this line at 3. System Lean: Buffalo +3
Carolina at NY Jets -- Line opened at NY Jets -3 and has moved to 3.5 despite 61% of public being on Carolina. So 39% of public on the Jets and 68% of public on ML but neither team was hammered when the line opened. The bigger thing I noticed is that the Total of 41.5 is at even betting for the most part, but the Over was was getting 81% to 83% of the action when this opened. Lines at 3 are tricky to read so I'm sticking with the strong read. PLAY: Over 41.5
Chicago at Minnesota --- 23% of public is on Chicago at +11 and 67% on Chicago ML. That right there makes Chicago a play, however, I see that Minny was the team getting pounded when this line opened. I'm just speculating, but perhaps sharp money was waiting for public money to come in as Minny has been a big public play lately. I do see this line has moved to 10.5 and 10 in some places. PLAY: Chicago +11
Tampa Bay at Atlanta --- 38% of public and 64% on ML for Tampa Bay. This is just like the Minnesota game. Percentages match up but Atlanta was hammered when this line opened, so it's not exactly what I look for. I'll do a LEAN: Tampa Bay +12
Jacksonville +3 at San Francisco --- 44% of public and 90% ML on Jacksonville. Also, Jax was hit at a 77% clip, or there abouts, when this line opened up, and it then started to go back even and swing a little toward San Fran. Now we are back on track for pretty much everything matching up in this situation. PLAY: Jax +3
So there are 5 Plays according to what I look at and 2 leans. I HATE the term 'leans'. Either play it or don't. Do you count it on your record or no? I have always had it as a 'Play' and that's it. I am going to count these leans on my record but am calling them 'leans' because I did not see heavy action being wagered on the side I needed in order for them to be plays. It was basically 2/3 things, so this is just for me to keep an eye on. I think 5 plays is pretty good anyway. We'll see if this stays on track.
NFL YTD: Was 26-14 through Week 7
Houston +3 over Indy --- 28% of public on Houston, 43% ML. Indianapolis has 72% of public on them but the line went from 3.5 and dropped to 3. Leads me to believe the sharp money is on Houston. Under was hit hard when line opened at 88% when the line opened and now only 35% of public is on the Under. So a lean toward the Under 48 but not a play for me. PLAY: Houston +3
Cleveland +14 at Cincinnati --- When line opened, a very large percent of the money coming in was on Cleveland at +14. It was around 88% up to 92% when line opened. This line has dropped at some places off of 14 down to 13.5 despite Cincy getting a huge percentage of the public action at 67%. Plus, 14 is a very key number to be moved off of. This also leads me to believe that sharp money is on Cleveland, although that is not real surprising since double digit dogs are popular with sharps. PLAY: Cleveland +14
Miami at Buffalo -- This line opened at 3 and despite 90% of the public on Miami, it has stayed at 3. Takes a lot to move a number off of 3 but 90% will usually do it unless good money has come in on the other side. The ML percentages are nearly equal, so it's not the ML keeping this at 3, although a lot of people will take the ML with a home dog rather than lay the 3 points. Only thing keeping this from being a play is that Miami was hammered when this line opened and it doesn't really match all three things that I look for. I personally like Miami in this game but system leans to Buffalo. I have to believe a lot of money somewhere is keeping this line at 3. System Lean: Buffalo +3
Carolina at NY Jets -- Line opened at NY Jets -3 and has moved to 3.5 despite 61% of public being on Carolina. So 39% of public on the Jets and 68% of public on ML but neither team was hammered when the line opened. The bigger thing I noticed is that the Total of 41.5 is at even betting for the most part, but the Over was was getting 81% to 83% of the action when this opened. Lines at 3 are tricky to read so I'm sticking with the strong read. PLAY: Over 41.5
Chicago at Minnesota --- 23% of public is on Chicago at +11 and 67% on Chicago ML. That right there makes Chicago a play, however, I see that Minny was the team getting pounded when this line opened. I'm just speculating, but perhaps sharp money was waiting for public money to come in as Minny has been a big public play lately. I do see this line has moved to 10.5 and 10 in some places. PLAY: Chicago +11
Tampa Bay at Atlanta --- 38% of public and 64% on ML for Tampa Bay. This is just like the Minnesota game. Percentages match up but Atlanta was hammered when this line opened, so it's not exactly what I look for. I'll do a LEAN: Tampa Bay +12
Jacksonville +3 at San Francisco --- 44% of public and 90% ML on Jacksonville. Also, Jax was hit at a 77% clip, or there abouts, when this line opened up, and it then started to go back even and swing a little toward San Fran. Now we are back on track for pretty much everything matching up in this situation. PLAY: Jax +3
So there are 5 Plays according to what I look at and 2 leans. I HATE the term 'leans'. Either play it or don't. Do you count it on your record or no? I have always had it as a 'Play' and that's it. I am going to count these leans on my record but am calling them 'leans' because I did not see heavy action being wagered on the side I needed in order for them to be plays. It was basically 2/3 things, so this is just for me to keep an eye on. I think 5 plays is pretty good anyway. We'll see if this stays on track.
good info
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