NFL Week 4

NFL 2026 Regular Season Record: 17-17 +2.63u

Week 1: 5-7 -3.05u
Week 2: 3-8-1 -5.14u
Week 3: 8-2 +9.54u
Week 4: 1-0 +1.28u


Patriots +6.5 -105
-Divisional underdogs after scoring 10 points or fewer in a loss: 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) since 2020. 
-Road teams in the last five Patriots-Bills meetings: 4-1 ATS.
-since 2012 teams who committed 5+ turnovers in a game and favored the next game are 13-24-1 ATS. Bills had 5 turnovers against the Chargers in week 3. 

Titans +11.5
- Road teams have covered the last four non-neutral TEN-BAL meetings.
-Road-underdogs are 61-33 ATS (64.9%) for teams losing three straight outright when catching 5.5pts or more the next game
-Baltimore is 6-15 ATS in Lamar's last 21 against teams with winning percentages =33%.

Dolphins +11.5 -125
-Road teams that have lost their last three ATS and face a team with >50% better winning percentage: 33-11-2 ATS (75%)
-Road teams losing three straight outright and catching 5.5+: 61-33 ATS (64.9%).
-Miami is 32-21 ATS vs non-conference teams since 2014.

Raiders +4.5 -108
-Kansas City only 13-22-1 ATS vs divisional opponents since 2020.
-Las Vegas 29-19 ATS vs divisional opponents since 2018.
-Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
-Chiefs are going into their pre-bye game, which actually supports KC historically: 6-2 SU/ATS in their last eight pre-bye games but line movement from 5.5 to 4.5 support Raiders spread. 

Panthers +3.5 -105
-Home underdogs on SNF: 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) since 2017.
-Home dogs heading into bye: 39-24-3 ATS (61.9%)
-Carolina home pre-bye: 6-0 ATS, scoring 30.8 PPG.
-Carolina is 10-3 ATS in pre-bye games.
-Home teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven Lions-Panthers games.
-Detroit is only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 SNF games.
-Teams scoring 30+ PPG on SNF are only 6-21 ATS in the last 27 against lower-scoring teams.

Cowboys +3.5 -135 (buy half the point)
-Dallas is 30-13 SU / 26-17 ATS against losing teams since 2020.
-Road teams are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five Cowboys-Texans meetings.
-teams losing three straight and then favored by 3+ are only 44-64-4 ATS (40.7%) since 2013

Eagles +3.5 -110
-against the Rams, the Eagles is 14-4 SU and 14-3-1 ATS since 1995.
-caveat; Rams are 30-16 ATS after a SU loss since 2019 but at this spot they are banged up with all the injuries. Garrett, Nacua, and their two TEs.

Falcons +3.5 -135 (buy half point)
-Road MNF teams coming off 20+ point wins: 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5%).
-Teams averaging =17.5 PPG against higher-scoring teams: 17-12 ATS (58.6%).
-New Orleans is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 MNF games.
-Home teams in divisional MNF games: 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%).
-Falcons-Saints underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight.
-New Orleans is 27-48 ATS at home since 2017.
-Saints have an 0-8 ATS home skid according to VSiN's primetime trend set.
-Kevin Stefanski is 7-21 ATS after an outright win this is why I bought half a point. thinking some fluke shit will happen and Saints will win by 3.

Underdogs that can win outright this week!!!!

I already took Browns ML at +128, depending if I win my bets tonight in hockey and tomorrow on baseball then I will lay a unit on each of these teams. But all the spread bets are already locked and loaded. 

Patriots ML +270
Eagles ML +130
Panthers ML +170
Raiders +183
Buccaneers ML +160


good luck! We are in the best month in sports betting - the peak of sports Equinox. Hockey, Baseball, NFL, and NBA in a few weeks. 

Top 6 spread plays to tease for 6pts for +600!!!

Patriots +6.5 to 12.5
Panthers +3.5 to 9.5
Raiders +4.5 to 10.5
Eagles +3.5 to 9.5
Titans +11.5 to 17.5
Bucs +3.5 to 10.5

Not too fond of Raiders in this spot and for now Pats are a no bet... But Best of luck brother! Like a few of those.

@asmth14

 could be a let down spot for chiefs and bills, they have been riding on high horse for 3 weeks and public is on their ML for sure considering they covered both spreads in week 3. but I might be wrong of course. 

Those stats for the Pats, Tenn, and Mia looks good. Any stats for the Chargers game? Thanks for sharing

@SharpSharks

 -Road teams losing their last three ATS in this situation: 33-11-2 ATS (75%).
-Road teams losing three straight outright and catching 5.5+: 61-33 ATS (64.9%).
-Underdogs are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 non-pick'em LAC-SEA meetings.

Seattle has 69% tickets / 93% money but line is conflicting as it is bouncing from 6.5 to 7.0 then again 6.5. If it is 7.0 or better then take it, if 6.5 or below this is a pass for me. 

No play for me for this game btw as I really hate Mike Mcdaniels. I think that man is cursed. 

I’m with you on the Eagles at home

no Devante Smith (hamstring) 

no Dallas Goedert 

grind it out game by Saquon and Hurts

Good Luck this week

@ChOmP

 Interestingly the Eagles are 6-0 ATS last 6 games as underdog and that Barkely stat was actually part of my dataset in this game. 

In his three games against the Rams as an Eagle, Barkley has:

• 506 rushing yards
• 7.2 yards per carry
• 4 rushing TDs
• 255 rushing yards in the 2024 regular-season matchup
• 205 rushing yards in the 2024 NFC Divisional Round
• Those two 2024 games alone = 460 rushing yards and 4 TDs
  
  Aaron Donald is out, Garrett is out, Nate Landman LB is out, - these are the guys that are crucial for the ground defense for the rams. Barkley will carve the Rams like a turkey in Thanksgiving this Sunday.
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@Way2Good

 Appreciate the stats. Bol on your plays

2 

I would think the concept of trends in football depends on specific players or a specific coaches! Do think the new Miami coaching staff will do similar as the last? I’d like to believe teams that lose do something different to reverse there losses? Do you have thoughts about that? Thanx 

+2.63 with a .500 record. 

You're doing your job so far. Good luck this week.

@joe pockets

 I think with your approach on new coaches and new players it would be hard to get a sample size of their trends or stats since the sample data set could be small relative to their tenure, so it is hard to measure and analyze without a specific metric. However you can reframe it to their specific positions such as “rookie qb, rookie coaches, rookie wr, etc” then you can get a more larger sample size in the league every year. As to specific performance I try to stay away from props as this is a very physical game, injury rates are higher across all american sports so the volatility is so high for my bet to cash - I rather bet a first td or anytime td just get over the itch of betting and get a boost of dopamine if it wins.

teams losing could also be a strategy too for franchises or you could look at division games where losing teams tend to suddenly perform great against their opponent on a specific day since they will play with pride and history (i.e. Browns v Steelers last TNF) or take a look at how the Patriots and Bills will play tomorrow, that game will be a thriller and I will die on this hill for Patriots to cover! 

@undermysac

 Thank you. Doing my best to keep my head out of the water. I think this week will be my biggest slate so far. Pondering of making bets on mlb or just lay everything on sunday. I may need to touch some grass today to keep myself away from any betting sites. 

Final Sunday NFL Card

Patriots +7.0 -110
Panthers +3.5 -110
Eagles +3.5 -105
Raiders +4.5 -108
Titans +12.0 -110
Dolphins +10.5 -105


ML Bets
Patriots ML +275
Panthers ML +165
Raiders ML +175
Eagles ML +168

@Way2Good

BoL today!  <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<   

                          "...and may the Fourth be with you!"

@Way2Good

 I get what your sayings!