Posted:
#51
Carolina/Atlanta OVER 40.5
The Falcons lost a game SU last week while scoring 20 points or fewer. That is very bad news for the Panthers defense this week as the Falcons offense has gone apeshit after losing a game while scoring 20 points or less in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. It has happened 9 times so far in the 3 years they've been there and here are the Falcons point totals in the following game: 41, 39, 45, 31, 27, 23, 24, 38, and 45 for an average of 34.8 points per game.
Atlanta's yardage totals in those games: 392, 453, 370, 378, 477, 352, 392, 444, and 452 for an average of 412.2 yard per game.
34.8 points and 412.2 yards per game in this situation, yikes! Those 9 games have gone 7-2 to the Over and it's worth noting that one of the two Unders came by 1.5 points on a 50.5 total in a game where Matt Ryan and Micheal Turner did not play and the Falcons were quarterbacked by the imposing Chris Redman (the game they scored 23 points).
Why do I think this trend continues?
#1 The Panthers defense has fallen apart the last 8 games as they've surrendered an average of 28 points per game and over 30 if you take out the game against Arizona where they gave up 12.
#2 The Falcons are still playing for something. They need to win to hold off the Saints in the division and they also need to win to hold off the Bears for the #1 seed in the NFC so sleep walking here seems less of a possibility.
#3 This offense was awful on Monday Night. They couldn't run, couldn't pass and pissed away a terrific performance from their defense as they managed a paltry 7 points, the same amount as the defense scored. After the game:
Matt Ryan: "We don't want to feel this way the rest of the season. We're going to work hard to make sure we don't."
Roddy White: "We didn't execute. We didn't do anything we needed to do. Our defense played well. They got those turnovers. They got us good field position, and we just didn't get the job done."
Let's not forget too that this is John Fox's last game and the Panthers will likely play hard for him and make some plays. This offense has had 10 days off to work on some things as well. When these two teams met in Charlotte a few weeks ago the Panthers ran for over 200 yards so they should be able to move the ball on the Falcons defense which may be gassed after that performance they put on Monday Night when they sent the blitz almost every play and swarmed on every tackle. Maybe the gambling gods will throw in a defensive or special teams TD.
Think this puppy goes over.
The Falcons lost a game SU last week while scoring 20 points or fewer. That is very bad news for the Panthers defense this week as the Falcons offense has gone apeshit after losing a game while scoring 20 points or less in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. It has happened 9 times so far in the 3 years they've been there and here are the Falcons point totals in the following game: 41, 39, 45, 31, 27, 23, 24, 38, and 45 for an average of 34.8 points per game.
Atlanta's yardage totals in those games: 392, 453, 370, 378, 477, 352, 392, 444, and 452 for an average of 412.2 yard per game.
34.8 points and 412.2 yards per game in this situation, yikes! Those 9 games have gone 7-2 to the Over and it's worth noting that one of the two Unders came by 1.5 points on a 50.5 total in a game where Matt Ryan and Micheal Turner did not play and the Falcons were quarterbacked by the imposing Chris Redman (the game they scored 23 points).
Why do I think this trend continues?
#1 The Panthers defense has fallen apart the last 8 games as they've surrendered an average of 28 points per game and over 30 if you take out the game against Arizona where they gave up 12.
#2 The Falcons are still playing for something. They need to win to hold off the Saints in the division and they also need to win to hold off the Bears for the #1 seed in the NFC so sleep walking here seems less of a possibility.
#3 This offense was awful on Monday Night. They couldn't run, couldn't pass and pissed away a terrific performance from their defense as they managed a paltry 7 points, the same amount as the defense scored. After the game:
Matt Ryan: "We don't want to feel this way the rest of the season. We're going to work hard to make sure we don't."
Roddy White: "We didn't execute. We didn't do anything we needed to do. Our defense played well. They got those turnovers. They got us good field position, and we just didn't get the job done."
Let's not forget too that this is John Fox's last game and the Panthers will likely play hard for him and make some plays. This offense has had 10 days off to work on some things as well. When these two teams met in Charlotte a few weeks ago the Panthers ran for over 200 yards so they should be able to move the ball on the Falcons defense which may be gassed after that performance they put on Monday Night when they sent the blitz almost every play and swarmed on every tackle. Maybe the gambling gods will throw in a defensive or special teams TD.
Think this puppy goes over.
0
Hot Forum Topics
